The Kids Are Alright

One of the best -- and also most frustrating -- things about baseball, is that over time, things always end up like they should. In that way, baseball is like life.

Over the course of 162 grueling games, the best teams will win, the Albert Pujolses will break out of their slumps, the and the Justin Turners will no longer hit .500 with runners in scoring position. It is not like football, where you only need to get through 16 games and can find a Maurice Jones-Drew out of nowhere. It's not like basketball or hockey where half the teams make the postseason. In baseball, six months will usually allow the best teams to prevail and for just enough time for magical fairy dust to wear off.

This is particularly poignant at this moment, as our Mets crash and burn in spectacular fashion (though personally I prefer this scenario to a late season collapse).


The other night, we all watched Dillon Gee struggle epically in his start against the Phillies. Gee was a great story for a while, but for those of us who were more than causal observers, we knew that he wasn't just an extraordinary kind of "gamer" or that he hadn't figured out "how to win" better than the next major league pitcher. Ultimately, you knew that he was going to gravitate toward his actual talent level. Perhaps, Gee will be quite good in the majors. Perhaps Gee has grown over time to become a better pitcher than he was in the minor leagues. But right now, he's sporting a 4.37 ERA, which is a lot closer to what you'd expect for Gee than the 3.32 ERA he had on July 1st. Most likely, he will become, to paraphrase Dennis Green, "who we thought he was."

The reason for this lengthy introduction is because as the Mets play out the string here in late August and September, most fans, myself included, begin to have their thoughts turn to the 2012 season. Thoughts of stars returning from injuries, discussions about free agents, and analysis of minor league prospects will ensue as we assess the strengths and weaknesses of our organization. We here at Fonzie Forever have always consistently stressed that the most important thing that an organization needs to do before making a plan for the next year is to make an honest assessment of there they are TODAY.
As an example, we all remember the Winter and Spring before the 2010 season. For a few months, the Mets maintained the status quo -- they acted for months as if they thought they had a shot to make the playoffs in 2010 and that all they needed to do was patch the holes. They signed Jason Bay to a large, lucrative contract -- one which I at the time predicted would cost Omar Minaya his job. They signed or acquired players such as Alex Cora, Elmer Dessens, Henry Blanco, Gary Mathews Jr., Frank Catalanotto, and Rod Barajas. Those players were, for the most part, players that you might acquire if you THINK you can contend and you need to fill out your bench, bullpen, or Triple-A roster. However, for the 2010 Mets, each and every one of those acquisitions ranged from mistake to disaster. The Mets behavior that offseason wasn't anchored in reality at all, and we here at Fonzie Forever said it every step of the way:

With the health of Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Jose Reyes all uncertain, there was no way a coherent plan could have been developed for the 2010 season. Under any set of circumstances, they were unlikely to succeed. Even if Santana, Beltran, and Reyes all came back strong, the Mets would also need David Wright to return to form, Mike Pelfrey to continue his growth, and for other players to step up.

The Mets, as we've said here before, were very fortunate in 2010. Out of nowhere, we discovered a quality major league center fielder in Angel Pagan; a high quality starter in RA Dickey; David Wright returned to form as an all-star caliber third baseman; Ike Davis had a wildly successful rookie year; and Carlos Beltran returned from his surgery and showed that he had a chance to contribute in 2011.

The 2011 edition of our Mets has been similarly successful, though their successes have been subtle, or modest, or in far away cities such as Binghamton or Port St. Lucie. Leaving aside any discussion of Madoff and the Wilpon's financial trouble -- about which no independent blogger can truly say make any predictions -- the Mets organization as a whole is in a much stronger place today than it was at this time last season.

Obviously, the major league roster now is not as talented as the one we fielded in April -- Davis and Reyes are hurt, while Beltran and K-Rod have been traded -- and not every prospect has advanced his standing. However, from the low minors to the major leagues, there have been a great deal of successes.

Below, I am going to take a look at some of the players who have made significant gains or significantly improved their stock in the last year. Undoubtedly, some of these names will be familiar to casual fans -- and others only to statheads. For space reasons, I'm not going to be able to go over everyone in the low minors, but limit myself to those players already on the major league roster or in the higher minor leagues.

I am proud to report that, for the first time in a while, I am very happy about the strength of the organization in general. An organization does not need to consistently produce super stars in order to be useful -- and in fact, in New York, it is even less important that they do -- because the development of useful, cheap, cost-controlled young players allows you the financial flexibility to make moves elsewhere. Now, on to the players:

Stock Up

Lucas Duda: You can count me as one of the many observers who did not think that Duda would amount to too much in the majors. Before 2010, Duda was a defensively-challenged corner outfielder who at the age of 23 posted an 808 OPS in Double-A. Then, something clicked. People have speculated that Duda had gotten over an injury, but since the bell rung in 2010 -- over 800 at-bats later -- he's been a very, very good hitter. He put up a 999 OPS in Triple-A last year, a 1011 OPS in Triple-A this year, and has hit .275/.345/.464 in the majors this year. In the last 45 games -- a decent proxy for since he's gotten regular playing time -- he's hit .300/.376/.531, which is outstanding.

Nobody is going to project Duda to post a 900 OPS over the course of a full season, but it's pretty clear now that Duda can hit, and that I was wrong about him. It remains to be seen whether Duda's glove will be good enough for the outfield (fangraphs has his career UZR/150 in the outfield at an atrocious -32.9 over a small sample size), but it is clear that Duda's stock is WAY WAY up and that he is a major leaguer.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: Another player who took his enormous strides of 2010 and solidified them in 2011 was Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Considered an overachiever by many, Kirk was not highly regarded even after posting an 847 OPS in Double-A at the age of 22. Scouting Book called him a fourth outfielder, while Keith Law, who strongly weighs scouting and tools in his ranking, did not place Kirk in his Mets Top 10 before the 2010 season.

The Captain, however, improved on his great 2010 season with a stellar 2011 season before going down with an injury. In 53 games, he batted .298/.403/.505 -- a batting line that will play anywhere, but is fabulous for a 23 year old center fielder. He underwent labrum surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in midseason, and there are substantial questions about how he will recover, but he has shown that, if healthy, he has a bright future.

The Big Three Pitching Prospects -- Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Zack Wheeler: Much virtual ink has been spilled already on these three, so I will be brief, but suffice to say that each of these three have taken big steps forward this year. All three have good "stuff" according to scouts, and have backed it up with their performance on the field.

Harvey, my favorite of the three, has struck out 59 batters in 51 innings in Double-A, including 7 shutout innings yesterday. He's been a little unlucky with balls in play, but with a strikeout to walk ratio of 59-15, he is having one of the best pitching prospect seasons I've seen. Familia may have been even better, with 63 strikeouts in 48 innings and an 11 inning shutout streak of his own in Double-A. Finally, Wheeler, the project of the three, is also striking out more than a batter per inning for the Single-A St. Lucie Mets. Toby Hyde was very impressed with his last start:

His fastball sat 94-96 mph with a few 93 mixed in later and one 97 as well early. He showed both the ability to throw it down with run and sink and throw it shoulder-height to change batters’ eye-level and produce swings and misses. Early on, his curveball was 77 mph with bite, by the end of his outing he was throwing it in the low 80s. It was nasty.

I try not to engage in hyperbole, but this is the best crop of Mets pitching prospects that I can recall seeing. All of them, in my opinion, compare favorably to Pelfrey (who, in his own right, was an impressive minor leaguer) and even to Jon Niese (who I was a big fan of from even the beginning).

Josh Satin: Although he doesn't profile to be an impact player any time soon, Satin has transformed himself from a non-factor into a player who can contribute on a major league team. After a relatively unremarkable minor league career, where he posted good-not-great numbers at each minor league level while being a little old for each level, Satin has exploded at the dish this year. He posted a 962 OPS at Double-A before his promotion to Triple-A. While with Buffalo, he's put up a respectable OPS of 808. That mark includes a .392 on-base percentage.

Zach Lutz: Similarly, organizational soldier Lutz made it to Triple-A and has posted an OPS of 933. It was just two seasons ago that Lutz was a non-factor, posting an 822 OPS in High-A. He's been quite good in Buffalo this year, and may find a way to be a useful major leaguer.

Chris Schwinden: Although Schwinden is not as good as his stats would indicate this season, he's taken a big step forward this season for Triple-A Buffalo. Schwinden last season posted a 5.56 ERA in Double-A, and the year before spent the majority of the season in Low-A Savannah. This year, however, Schwinden has handled his promotion to Triple-A with aplomb, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings -- all of which are career bests. The former 22nd Round draft pick may make good.

Jordany Valdespin: The 23 year old Valdespin was featured here a year and a half ago where we said:

There are a lot of reasons to like Valdespin. Obviously, his Savannah performance was good. More importantly, being rated the "best athlete" in the system...ahead of the likes of Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte, Kirk Nieuwenheis and others says a lot about his tools...In addition, he had a very strong Winter League performance...All of these things point to a bright future for Jordany. Although it could be seen as an indictment of his talent that he has not yet reached High-A ball entering his age 22 season, his physical abilities and variety of talents (speed and defense) make him an intriguing prospect.

Jordany is a project, but this year has taken a huge stride forward. After ending the 2010 season with a poor 698 OPS between Single-A and Double-A, he hit a robust .297/.341/.483 for Double-A Binghamton earlier this year. I think that the talk of Valdespin as a potential major leaguer next season is premature, but he is still only 23 and may still have room to grow.

Reese Havens: Back in 2009, when Reese Havens and Ike Davis were coming off their first full seasons in the minor leagues, we here at Fonzie Forever could not understand why Davis was being held in higher regard than Havens. We pointed out here that they were picked only four selections apart in the 2008 draft, both had hit well in the minors, and Havens had the positional adjustment advantage (second base versus first base). However, Havens has been plagued by injuries since then, and his stock -- through early this year -- had dropped substantially.

However, I am glad to report that Havens has come back strong in the last two months, and has upped his batting line in Double-A to .287/.370/.420. Even better, he's gained momentum as the year has gone on, posting a line of .323/.402/.430 since the All-Star Break. Granted, he will have to prove that his injury problems will not derail his once promising career, but Havens stock has certainly risen since April. He's a second baseman capable of posting an OPS of 800 or better, and those are exceedingly rare.

Justin Turner: Although by no stretch would I ever want Justin Turner starting on my contending team, my man @redturn2 has finally gotten the opportunity to show that he deserves to be in the major leagues. Turner hasn't hit a lick since his third week in the majors and his OPS is now down to 678 -- however, he plays decent defense and is fun to be around and can be a piece on a winner. ZiPS projected Turner for a 697 OPS in preseason, which is on the money as usual, but that is fine for organizational depth.

Stock Down

As I mentioned, not everyone in the Mets organization has been all puppies and rainbows in 2011. It's been a tough year for Fernando Martinez, while we watched Jenrry Mejia undergo Tommy John surgery. Stephen Matz, the Mets first pick (second round) of the 2009 draft has had some soreness in his recovery from his own Tommy John. I still believe that these players have a chance to contribute (particularly Mejia, who observers believe can still be a big impact pitcher) but their fortunes have dimmed somewhat since this time last year.

But in general?

A hallmark of a good organization is not just in the superstars at the major league level or super prospects in the minors, but in the depth of the rosters at each level. If you trade a Beltran, do you have a Duda to fill in? If Davis gets hurt, do you have a Daniel Murphy to take his space or do you need to pay a Mike Jacobs?

In that sense, it's been a very, very strong year for the organization. Aside from the one big question mark surrounding the Mets' financial situation, this is a team that could probably start making some noise as early as next year. Provided that the majority of players come back reasonably healthy, this is what the Mets squad could look like next year without a single addition from free agency.

1B Davis
2B Murphy
SS Reyes
3B Wright
LF Bay
CF Pagan
RF Duda
C Thole/Paulino

SP Santana, Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Capuano
RP Parnell, Beato, ...

The team as constituted above is not going to win the National League East. The Mets still have significant weaknesses when it comes to the starting rotation and the bullpen, and the Jason Bay contract will haunt the organization for another two years, but given average health that team will not be terrible. And more importantly, it's not constituted so poorly that it makes me want to run to the Mets offices at Citi Field and say "Are you mad?! Trade everything that's not nailed down!! You guys are crazy for keeping up this charade!"

Generally speaking, the players mentioned above have shown that the Mets are going to be less likely to suffer should they be befallen by a major injury. The days of Alex Cora and Miguel Cairo seem to be past, for now. And even better, the above guys, if we need them to play, are going to be making the minimum salary. That is why Angel Pagan and RA Dickey have been the most valuable Mets over the last couple of years -- they are providing value and barely costing anything.

These kids are alright. Luckily, all the trading of stars and doom and gloom at the major league level hasn't done anything to dampen the future prospects of our minor leaguers. Granted, reinforcements would have been nice in 2009, or 2008, but once again, that's part of the beauty of baseball.

Prospects, or major leaguers, or injuries, or luck, don't develop because you NEED them to at that moment. That's one of the beautiful things about baseball. Tragically, Daniel Murphy got injured again this year, just when we needed him. The Mets made silly moves in advance of 2010 because they thought they needed to compete, and damn the fact that the roster just wasn't good enough at that point. Where are we on the success cycle?

These kids are alright. The ones above -- and many others, who I did not get a chance to mention -- had a good year this year. I am excited to watch our boys play out the string here in late August and September, and hopefully, they'll be here contributing to the major league team very soon.

But not because we need them to. Because they are ready.

Is Zack Wheeler Overrated?

On my way to bed tonight, I took a quick look over at Metsblog to see is there were any interesting stories I missed today while in the midst of work and riveting debt-ceiling talk. Turns out that this afternoon they posted a link to the new Baseball America Top 10 Prospects list, which considers the state of the farm system as it is today post-trade and post-draft. Here's the list:



Zack Wheeler ascends to the top spot on the list, surpassing even Matt Harvey, the Mets highly-touted draft pick from last season. And for what reason, you may ask? Well, apparently, Wheeler has a really high ceiling. People like him a lot. Some of the good stuff?

--Project Prospect said that his curveball "has elite, two-plane break and is a no-doubt swing-and-miss offering."
--Baseball America in 2011 ranked him as the Giants #2 prospect and said that he "threw an easy 94-97 mph fastball" and called his changeup "functional."
--Here is a clip of Wheeler pitching this season which has been linked a few times, but may be worth another look:



But so far, none of this has translated to professional success for young Mr. Wheeler. So far this year, despite a decent enough 3.99 ERA, he has posted a 1.37 WHIP and walked 4.8 batters per nine innings for High Class-A San Jose in the California League. He's striking out a lot of batters as well, with 10.0 K/9, but for reference, he's walking the same amount of batters per nine innings as Oliver Perez did in 2008, when he was making everybody into a mental patient. His 3.99 ERA also checks in as the fourth highest ERA among regular starters on that team although, once again, his strikeout rate is elite.

But at this point, all the scouting accolades have not manifested in his actual pitching. And for those of you who would point to the fact that being drafted by the Giants portends success, Tim Lincecum dominated at San Jose (1.95 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) as did Matt Cain (1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), as did Madison Bumgarner (1.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). All those pitchers were kept, while Wheeler was traded.

Does Wheeler stand a chance to be great? Sure, I hope so. And of course, I am no professional scout. However, you heard a number of similarly glowing things about other Mets farmhands, yet the hype machine doesn't care about them because they were not involved in a big trade.

How about Matt Harvey? His fastball "sits in the 92-96 mph range and touches 98," similar to Wheeler (link). He's 6-foot-4 with a "power curve" and flashes of above average breaking stuff. Just as importantly, Harvey dominated at High Class-A this season when Wheeler struggled, posting a 2.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 10.9 K/9 and only 2.8 BB/9. Harvey has struggled somewhat in Double-A, but his fantastic strikeout to walk ratio has remained the same and he is only 29 innings into his stay there. So far, Harvey has been a tremendous success.

How about Jeurys Familia, who was a forgotten man after his struggles in 2010? He is seven months older than Wheeler, but he is putting up almost identical stats to Wheeler but is doing so in Double-A rather than Single-A. Familia has put up a 3.38 ERA, which is good, but his secondary stuff is a little rougher, with a 1.36 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9. When he was in High Class-A to begin the year, he dominated with a 1.49 ERA and a strikeout per inning.

Here is a clip of Jeurys Familia striking out ten batters in a minor league start on June 18th of this year.



I don't mean to lose you with all the numbers, but Familia, who also throws 92-96 with the fastball (link) has been projected by some as a "bullpen guy" while Wheeler has been touted as a potential ace. I certainly hope that Wheeler does well, but until he shows me something in the minor leagues, or until the scouting reports of his actual pitches improves -- rather than forecasts of future improvement -- I don't think he deserves the #1 spot in any Mets prospect ranking.

Jenrry Mejia Lands at #44 on Baseball America's Top Prospect List

When it comes to Mets prospects, I usually have a hard time understanding why the public perceives them the way that they do. Usually, scouting organizations and the media always find a way to frame the Mets farm system as one SUPERSTAR prospect and a bunch of bums.

But perception doesn't always match reality -- and when it comes to an organization like the Mets, for whom baseball's schadenfreude seems limitless -- things get blown grossly out of proportion. At this point, you can almost field an entire team out of failed Mets super-prospects from the last fifteen years - Isringhausen, Wilson, Pulsipher, Escobar, Ochoa, Heilman, Gomez, Martinez, Milledge.

However, the fact of the matter is, the Mets farm system might have been a little below average in the last decade or so, but it has had no problem churning out good major leaguers. Aside from David Wright and Jose Reyes, the Mets have developed Scott Kazmir, Ty Wigginton, Melvin Mora, Heath Bell, Jon Niese, Josh Thole, Matt Lindstrom, Bobby Parnell, and others.

Unfortunately for those who would like to cultivate that story, the Mets no longer have a top prospect who is destined for superstardom. As such, the remainder of the Mets prospects are downplayed, as usual. I'd like to demonstrate this by comparing one of our very own, Jenrry Mejia, to a player who has seen almost universal acclaim from prospect evaluators, Neftali Feliz. Mejia landed at #44 on this year's Baseball America top prospect list.

Entering last season, Neftali Feliz was an enormously hyped prospect. According to Baseball America, he was the #9 prospect in all of baseball. According to John Sickels, he was the #2 pitching prospect in the game, behind only Stephen Strasburg.

What had he done to earn all that hype? And don't get me wrong - he deserved it. Neftali Feliz's minor league career looks something like this:

2008 - A+ - 20 - 2.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 11.63 K/9 (as starter)
2008 - AA - 20 - 2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.33 K/9 (as starter)
2009 - AAA - 21 - 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.73 K/9 (mixed starting and relieving)
2009 - MLB - 21 - 1.74 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 11.32 K/9 (as reliever)

He was young, and he dominated each league he played in. From a scouting perspective, Feliz is listed as 6'3" 180 lbs and throws fire - a fastball averagine 96.3 mph over 80% of the time, along with a great curveball.

Mejia, on the other hand, has remained stagnant in most baseball prospect lists. He was the #56 prospect in baseball entering 2010, and only increased his standing to #44 in the most recent Baseball America list. But why such a little jump, when he did this the last two seasons?

2009 - A+ - 19 - 1.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.87 K/9
2009 - AA - 19 - 4.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.54 K/9
2010 - AA - 20 - 1.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.58 K/9
2010 - MLB - 4.62 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 5.08 K/9

The numbers for Mejia are not as encouraging on the surface as they are for Feliz, and he did finish out the year with a rhomboid strain - but you have to remember, these are professional scouting organizations and should not be basing their decisions on superficial information. That's what we bloggers do.

So from a scouting perspective, Mejia is 6'0" and 162 lbs, so tall but wiry like Feliz. He gets by with a blazing sinking fastball averaging 94.6 mph and an above average changeup. He also throws a curveball, like Feliz. He also tackled each of the above levels (plus one dominating start at AAA) a year younger than Feliz did.

So what separates last year's #9 best prospect in baseball (Feliz) from this year's #44 prospect (Mejia)? I have no idea[1].


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[1] And for the record, the players immediately surrounding Mejia in the rankings:

#43 Dellin Betances, a 22 year old who spent the year dominating in A+ ball, then pitching 14 great innings in AA. He posted a 0.91 WHIP and 12.56 K/9 in AA, which is great, but it was only 14 innings and he's already two full years older than Mejia.

#45 Aaron Hicks is a toolsy 20 year old outfielder who repeated low-A after an unsuccessful 2009 season where he posted a 735 OPS. In his second tour of Beloit, in the Midwest League, he posted a line of .279/.401/.428. However, he's still all projection at this point and hasn't shown any ability to hit for power. He's very athletic, and has shown good plate discipline, but right now he's at least a year and a half away.

Debunking Dillon

Today, a quick look at Dillon Gee and the expectations being heaped upon him for the upcoming season. First, a look at the expectations:

NY Daily News: After Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee is the best internal option. The righthander impressed in a September callup, and the Mets hope he can secure a rotation spot

Bleacher Report: He could be the potential workhorse and innings-eater the Mets need...

Metsblog: So, if it comes down to Misch or Dillon Gee, I prefer Gee... Gee had more balanced results than Misch last year, he’s younger, and I think he has a slightly higher ceiling that Misch

NY Baseball Digest: Gee is certainly not a top of the rotation ace like Santana, nor does he have the potential of Mike Pelfrey, but Gee showed some moxie during his brief call up ... I can see Gee throwing 175 innings next year, winning 10 games, and pitching to a 4.50 ERA.

We at Fonzie Forever like to pride ourselves on staying a step ahead of the curve. We were really excited about Jon Niese before his sterling 2010 debut. On the eve of his first start, we pointed out how quietly successful he had been through the minors. We later followed up by comparing him favorably with Wade Davis, a highly touted prospect on the Rays. Another outside the box profile was Jordany Valdespin before he became a household name among Mets prospect mavens.

The big one, and the subject of this article, is Dillon Gee. We profiled Gee in April of last season and pointed out that he had quietly been performing well at each level of the minors:

Gee was drafted out of the 22nd round (unspectacular) and was assigned to short-season Class-A Brooklyn for his minor league debut (unspectacular). He pitched well there, but by the start of the 2008 season, he was a 22-year-old in Port St. Lucie -- nothing to get too excited about. [But] at what point do we have to look at Gee's performances and say to ourselves that he deserves a second look? From the start of the 2008 season and onward, he has been great - doing nothing to dispel the notion that he could someday prove to be a very good major league pitcher.

Gee, as we all know, earned a call up from Triple-A Buffalo late last year and shone in his major league debut. Here's how his last two seasons have looked:

Minors Career - A/AA/AAA - 3.76 ERA, 7.96 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP
2009 - Buffalo - AAA - 48 innings, 4.10 ERA, 2.63 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP
2010 - Buffalo - AAA - 161 innings, 4.96 ERA, 4.02 K/BB, 1.33 WHIP
2010 - Mets - MLB/AAA - 33 innings, 2.18 ERA, 1.13 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP

Pretty good performances in Triple-A, and then a spectacularly successful 33 inning cameo in the major leagues. It is those last 33 innings that are the driving force behind those who think that Gee is already prepared to be an adequate major league pitcher. But is Gee the pitcher that fans of the major league squad saw in September? Is he as good as his career minor league stats might indicate? Or is an ERA approaching 5.00 as he showed last season in Buffalo more accurate?

Unfortunately for the Mets, I think Gee's late success last year took his stock from grossly underrated to somewhat overrated. New York is a funny place (Rex Ryan foot video, anyone?). In my opinion, Gee is probably much closer to a 4.96 ERA in Triple-A kind of pitcher than anything else, and here's why:

1. His major league stats last year appeared to be the result of some *fantastic* luck. Gee's peripherals in his short New York cameo were not good - for instance, his strikeout to walk ratio of 17-15, and he struck out less than 5 batters per nine innings. According to Fangraphs, his batting average on balls in play was an extremely fortunate .232, when in the long run it should end up somewhere in the neighborhood of .300 or a little higher. He managed to strand on base over 80% of the runners he allowed, which is a high number. And he allowed home runs on less than 5% of his fly balls.

For those in the sabermetric crowd, that's almost a "perfect game" of luck - everything broke his way. Granted, it was only 33 innings, and you can't put too much stock into such a small sample size - but that is exactly my point as well. Those 33 innings tell you almost nothing, and since Gee appears to be the beneficiary of some great luck, he is unlikely to be nearly as good in the future.

2. His stuff doesn't dominate you. Gee gets by with a fastball that averaged 89.1 MPH last season, along with a change and slider. He managed to get a very good amount of ground balls (47%), and I don't have access to minorleaguesplits.com right now (site broken) but I imagine that ground balls are an important part of his game. Even assuming that he can continue to get batters to pound the ball into the ground, not having good 'stuff' will catch up with you in the upper minors and the Show. Yes, a lot of pitchers get by with 89 mile per hour fastballs -- but a lot of those guys are lefthanded, or struggled for years, or have great secondary offerings. Gee can succeed as a righthander with that kind of repertoire (Greg Maddux was throwing 85 at the end of his Braves tenure) but these guys tend to be the exceptions, not the rule.

3. His career minor league stats are aided by the 127 innings he spent in Single-A as a 22-year-old beating up on inferior competition. We won't even mention the 62 innings he dominated at short season Brooklyn after he graduated college. The only work of Gee's that should have much probative weight in guessing how he'll be in the major leagues is his work in Double and Triple-A, where his results were mixed.

None of this is to say that I don't think Dillon Gee won't be a useful major league player, or that I doubt he could even someday develop into a good pitcher in the #3 or #4 type mold. But I've seen this all before: crafty right-hander climbs up through the Mets minors, not overpowering stuff, but excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios. Except this player? He was even better, and even younger, than Gee. His name?

Yusmeiro Petit. I used to think that Petit was one of the best pitching prospects on the planet. He posted K/9 figures of 12 or better at FOUR consecutive minor league stops. He pitched in Double-A Binghamton as a 20 year old and posted a WHIP of 0.92(!) with a 2.91 ERA. But he didn't pass the eye test for some, and scouts didn't like him at the higher levels. I didn't care though - and in retrospect lost many an argument about it. I thought, "So what if his stuff is no good? If anything, he can make up for it with control and with his great instinct for pitching."

Lo and behold, Petit got crushed by better competition - unlike lower minors batters who he could strike out at ease, the more talented competition could take him yard seemingly at will. He possesses a career major league ERA of 5.58 and I think is seeking work. Incidentally, Petit's fastball was clocked at 88.7 when he broke into the major leagues.

For this reason, I think Gee has become overrated. I liked him last year as a future potential contributor, but in the last season, his stock has actually dropped in my mind. He went from a guy posting a 3.00 ERA and a 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk in the low minors to a guy with an ERA between 4 and 5 in the high minors, and I consider that a warning sign.

As I said, there is no reason to believe that Gee CAN'T improve and take his game up to the level that the general population seems to think it should be -- I just doubt it. Even guys who you might consider to be soft-tossing righties can usually crack 90 miles per hour.

That's why I'd like to see Pat Misch be given the first crack at the #5 starter spot this spring. But if Gee can become another Scott Baker, or Jeff Suppan, or John Garland, then great.

Toby Hyde is Keepin' It Real

I've always enjoyed reading Toby Hyde. Despite being affiliated with the SNY Network of blogs, Toby, the writer over at Mets Minor League Blog, seems to have pretty free reign on his content and does a good job with it.

Yesterday, Toby did a good job calling out Fangraphs on a couple of silly comparisons they made between Mets prospects and current or former major leaguers.

I think Marc Hulet, the author over at fangraphs, does a very good job usually. This is not his best work. The list itself seems pretty poor and disordered, but it's really the comments on the players that make you shake your head.

I don't have the time nor the experience with the Mets minors to take Hulet to task, but Toby does, so if you are interested in Mets prospects, I'd encourage you to click through and take a look at what he has to say. And while you're at it, read the original article as well. Hulet is off the mark a few times, but overall, fangraphs is a great resource and it'll serve as a useful primer on some of our more promising minor leaguers.

Bobby Parnell Has Suddenly Become Very Important

Bobby Parnell was very impressive last night. As Gary Cohen noted during the broadcast, Parnell threw over a dozen pitches at 100 mph or faster, as well as a couple at 102. I didn't see it, but the NY Times claims that he threw a pitch at 103 as well.

Putting aside the issue of whether the gun was fast (it was), Parnell was throwing some serious heat last night. The fastball was darting and tailing, and the slider was a wipeout pitch. If Parnell can continue to pitch like that, he is going to be very very good. Very.

Relative Definitions of Success

Hypothetical question for Mets fans out there.

Say Fernando Martinez were called up next year in, say, May of 2011.

Say that, hypothetically, Fernando Martinez were able to play pretty good defense in a corner outfield position. Let's put him at an UZR/150 of +8, which is pretty good.

At the dish, Martinez posts a line which I think people might call "meh." Let's put Martinez at a .250/.325/.435 slash line with 15 home runs, 54 RBI, and 96 strikeouts.

Would you call that season a success? A disappointment? Somewhere in between?

I think most fans would consider that a let-down, but I would consider it the exact season that Ike Davis is having this year. Look for yourself. Here at Fonzie Forever, we pride ourselves on being forward-thinking, so we're heading this off at the pass in advance.

Ike Davis is having a pretty decent year. He's 23 years old. Fernando Martinez is a year and a half younger. Let's hope he gets as fair a shake as Ike.

Reese Havens Out for Year?

This is not new news, but I was made aware of it for the first time today.

INJURY UPDATE: Most recent word out of the Mets is that Reese Havens is not doing well with the oblique he re-strained in late June and may miss the rest of 2010. Awful news. via Amazin Avenue

What a bummer that is! Havens was having an incredible season, when healthy, and making strides to validate my pre-season claim that Havens was a better prospect than Ike Davis. Havens was hitting .338/.400/.662 for Binghamton with 6 home runs in only 18 games.

Unfortunately, the injury bug strikes again. According to Mack's Mets:

Most of the Mets brass drools over Havens’ talent, but bristle at his propensity to getting injured. He also heals slower than F-Mart. The Mets have quietly shut him down for the rest of this season.

Ah well, better luck next year Reese.

Josh Thole Minor League Update!

It's been a while since we've heard from young catching sensation Josh Thole, and for good reason - he has been struggling. So far this season in Triple-A, Thole has hit a meager .203/.270/.329.

There is good news, however, which is why I bring you the update. Thole has been much better recently - he's hitting .286/.333/.514 over his last ten games. For the season he has only 16 strikeouts in 79 at-bats, and has nine extra base hits.

I always assumed that he would hit well, and that he was in Triple-A to work on his defense. Well... that may not have worked out thus far. But it's nice to see Thole turning it around at the plate, and it's hard to complain about the production we've gotten from our catchers lately at the major league level.

I'll keep watching Thole (and Fernando Martinez ... but not Carter, who I don't really care for) closely over the next few weeks to see if the hitting continues!

Fernando Martinez is NOT Alex Escobar

I wasn't planning on writing again tonight, but I saw something tonight that made me flip my lid. This isn't the first time either. I've started to see this a lot lately.

Metsblog had an update today about Fernando Martinez. F-Mart is injured again and missing a little time. There really is no word on the severity of the injury, and it's likely that the Mets are just being cautious as usual. But then I made the mistake of reading the Metsblog comments.

I'd ignore this comment if it was an isolated incident, but I have started to see comments like this a lot lately:

I’ve seen F-Mart before – his name then was Alex Escobar. Escobar never made it on the major league level and from all accounts, neither will F-Mart.

Sigh.

The Most Important Thing From... Game 13, Mets v. Cubs, April 19th

In March, the New York Times ran a great piece on the Mets farm system entitled "The Mets Future Suddenly Feels Far From Barren." In it, there were a couple of great quotes, and a couple of great player profiles. Nothing, however, stood out to me more than a single line delivered by Jerry Manuel:

“The talent is on the doorstep,” Manuel said. “It’s not in the living room, but it’s right there waiting.”

Well. It is here. The talent isn't on the doorstep any more - it has beaten the door off its hinges and it's making it's way to Flushing. You can say what you will about the Mets chances this year, but tonight, the Mets youth put on an absolute display.

Bad News on Fernando Martinez Front

My love for all things Fernando Martinez is well chronicled. I've firmly stated my belief that he's underrated, that he's a stud, and that he's our best prospect. However, in the interest of unbiased and truthful journalism, I have to pass on an important nugget of information I discovered today.

Fernando Martinez has yet to walk this season in Triple-A.

Jordany Valdespin Making Noise

A few weeks ago, we at Fonzie Forever plunged through the deep minors and discovered "intriguing" second base prospect Jordany Valdespin. We concluded:

Although it could be seen as an indictment of his talent that he has not yet reached High-A ball entering his age 22 season, his physical abilities (winning Baseball America's 'Best Athlete' award among all Mets minor leaguers) and variety of talents (speed and defense) make him an intriguing prospect.

Lo and behold, one month later Valdespin is making some serious noise around camp. He appeared in a spring training game last week against the Cardinals, but the quotes coming from Minaya and Manuel about Valdespin really caught me off guard:

Maybe the Mets do have a second baseman in their future from their system just as they have Ike Davis at first.

Mejia is Not Parnell

Quick blurb from Metsblog caught my eye today:

…mejia struck out Matt Diaz with a 97 mph fastball, high out of the strike zone, that diaz swung at, missed and seemingly never saw… by the way, SNY’s Gary Cohen brought up an interesting point, in that, last spring, people were raving about Bobby Parnell in much the same way they’re doing now with mejia… yet, here we are wondering what parnell’s future holds…

Well... let's see.

Jenrry Mejia is an ELITE prospect. He's got a plus plus fastball which touches 97 and with cutting action. His secondary pitches are coming along and show a lot pf promise. He's coming off a season where, at the age of 19, he dominated High-A ball and held his own in Double-A. He even struck out more than a batter per inning at Binghamton. To do this as a teenager is extremely impressive.

Bobby Parnell was not an elite prospect. He was drafted in the ninth round of the amateur draft and was given a tiny bonus. He's got a fastball which touches 99 but is flat and straight. He has no secondary pitch worth noting. Last year, he was coming off a season where he struggled in Double-A and was shelled in Triple-A as a 23 year old.

To complete the (what's the opposite of an analogy?) comparison, their spring trainings aren't similar at all either. This year, Mejia has electrified camp with a great spring, posting a 1.54 ERA over 12 innings with a K-BB ratio of 9-2 and only 7 hits. Last year, Parnell also had a great ERA of 1.88, but he supported it with a K-BB ratio of 11-10, while also giving up 12 hits. The ERA's are similar -- but the similarity ends there.

Mejia is a far better prospect, with far better stuff, and has had a far better spring. The comparison is meaningful in that they are both youngsters who posted low ERA's in a dozen spring innings... but to mention the two in the same breath is a slight to Mejia's actual (not imaginary, as in the case of Parnell) potential.

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Edit: Actually, that is harsh of me regarding Parnell. To be clear, and I've said this before, Parnell has every opportunity to become a useful reliever. Guys who can throw as hard as he can and throw strikes do not grow on trees - and they have the kind of potential that coaches dream about. If he can develop a good secondary pitch, or find a way to cut or sink his current fastball, he could be great. But the pedigree, the resume, and the percentage chance of that happening, are not as great as they have been made out to be for the last year.

Chris Carter Probably Being Overlooked For The Right Reasons

Ed Ryan over at Mets Fever had a thoughtful post today asking "how is Chris Carter getting overlooked" for the first base job? He's performed very well in spring training and, with Murphy struggling, one might think he deserves a look. A good thought, but not so fast.

Carter hit .294/.358/.465 for Triple-A Pawtucket in the International League last year while the property of the Red Sox. Decent numbers on the surface. However, putting up those numbers as a 26-year-old in Triple-A is a far cry from doing so in the major leagues.

The Mets Most Critical Spring Training Issue: Holding On To Figgy

Howard Megdal published a great article yesterday regarding the Mets fifth starter competition, and may have accidentally highlighted what I believe to be the most important and interesting issue surrounding the Mets this spring -- keeping Nelson Figueroa the property of the New York Mets.

(I know articles about Mejia, Ike Davis, and Fernando are much sexier, but sometimes the boring issues are the most important)

In his blog for SNY.tv, Megdal points out that the Mets have an "embarrassment of riches" competing for the fifth spot in the pitching rotation. And he's absolutely right.

The most interesting part of the article, however, was the angle that he took on the topic. After basically assuming that all the candidates are good and viable (which they are) he discussed the competition in the most important context: "given the question marks with the first four pitchers in the rotation, the team's ability to hold onto [the fifth starter candidates] has to be taken into account."

Catching Up With: Carlos Gomez

Metsblog had an interesting post earlier today discussing some former Mets farmhands which we have traded away:

Yes… Bell and Matt Lindstrom, and maybe Xavier Nady and Jeff Keppinger, are players the Mets might wish they could have back... But, all in all, Omar Minaya has traded away a TON of minor leagues, very few of which he regrets.

For instance, in the five years he has been at the wheel, he’s traded away: Ian Bladergroen, Petit, Grant Posmas, Gaby Hernandez, Dante Brinkley, Jae Wong Seo, Evan Maclane, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister, Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Humber and Kevin Mulvey – very few of which would even have helped with adding depth to last season’s injury-plagued roster. He traded away Mike Jacobs, who signed with the team as a free agent a few months ago; and he traded Henry Owens, who was auditioning for a minor-league job at Tradition Field last month.

Yes, I do trust Minaya’s ability to asses his young talent, which is also a credit to his staff.

Now, I disagree with some of the assessments outright. Mike Jacobs was a very useful player for a couple of years, it is way too early to tell on Gaby Hernandez, Milledge is good and has the opportunity to be great, and Brian Bannister has been a very useful player. But I agree with the concept in general -- for all the hand wringing people have done about trading away prospects, we have not traded away a lot of impact players. And it's interesting to wonder whether that is luck, or whether Minaya has just been particularly adept at judging talent.

2010 Top Prospects Part 11: Organizational Rankings

Regarding the minor leagues, the question I get asked more than any other is: how good is [my favorite team's] farm system? Well, every year I like to put together a little ranking of all the organizations to answer that question. Since I have spent roughly the last two months working on ranking individual players (256 in total), I actually have the perfect tool to answer that question. I developed a point system, giving each organization a certain amount of credit for each player I took the time to single out. I will not go into great depth over how much each prospect was worth, but as a couple of examples, Stephen Strasburg (#1 overall) was worth 15, Ryan Westmoreland (#50 overall) was worth seven and Tanner Scheppers (#101 overall) was worth two. After totaling up these scores, here is how the teams broke down.


1. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays simply lap the field when it comes to prospects, putting 3 guys in the top 12 overall and 7 in the top 100. Desmond Jennings is clearly the team's top prospect but they also have an impressive group of pitchers coming through the minors. Given how much talent already on hand for the parent club, and how loaded its system is, it looks like Tampa Bay will be competitive for a long time.

The Talent Is On The Doorstep

Two days ago the Times ran a great piece on the Mets farm system entitled "The Mets Future Suddenly Feels Far From Barren." The piece was written by David Waldstein, who Metsblog recently gave props to, calling him "smart" and that he is "doing a terrific job." I'd tend to agree.

Here are some snips:

Manager Jerry Manuel has been raving about the prospects who he thinks could help the Mets this season — like 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia, who has drawn comparisons of sorts from Manuel and Dan Warthen, the pitching coach, to both Mariano Rivera and Dwight Gooden...

The promising first baseman Ike Davis already has 12 total bases in 13 at-bats, including one towering blast that Manuel said was hit as far as any ball he has seen at Port St. Lucie. Manuel said Davis could also prompt him to rethink plans to send him down to Class AAA Buffalo if he continues to hit the way he has...

If Josh Thole, a young hitter with a sweet swing and a burning desire to improve, continues to learn his position, he is likely to be the Mets’ catcher of the future.

* * *

And finally, Fernando Martinez, who may be the best of the team’s prospects, hit two solo home runs and had four hits in four at-bats.

* * *

Only six games have been played, and this is the time for the young players to take the field. As spring training progresses, more at-bats and innings will be taken up by the veterans as they prepare for the regular season. But with Mejia, Davis, Thole and Martinez, the Mets’ future may not be as bleak as it appeared a year ago.

It's a short - but very good - read. Waldstein seems to take a good objective look at things, especially in the way he referred to Fernando Martinez. It's easy to forget about F-Mart this year, with all the hype around Davis and Mejia, and maybe that's a good thing.

For the spring, in case you are wondering, Martinez is hitting .588/.556/1.176 and leads the team in total bases.

And even if you don't think that any of these players are going to be world-beaters and all-stars, it's hard not to agree with Manuel's assessment when he says:

“What happened last year is that those guys were, like, a year away,” Manuel said. “And now if anything were to go wrong in terms of questions of depth, we’re seeing some young players come up and play extremely well...

“The talent is on the doorstep,” Manuel said. “It’s not in the living room, but it’s right there waiting.”

And although I think I join a majority of sabermetrically inclined Mets fans when I say I'd prefer to see Mejia starting in Binghamton rather than setting up in Queens - it is undeniable that these prospects all seem to be blossoming at the same time.

From the blue-chippers who have a chance to become stars someday (Mejia, Martinez) to players who have a decent chance of being good regulars (Davis, Thole, Havens, Niese) there is opportunity. And just as importantly, there is a whole crop of players who could be useful parts and cheap - including guys like Parnell, Kunz, Takahashi, Figueroa, and Gee.

The talent is on the doorstep, and it will be interesting to see how much is there.

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[1] Ok, I didn't really look hard. Or at all.

2010 Top Prospects Part 10: Right-Handed Starters

Pitching prospects are one of the most coveted assets in baseball today. You can never have too much pitching (particularly starting) and if you can develop a pitcher out of the minors they will be much cheaper than signing a free agent. Every team in baseball has a few pitching prospects that they like and sorting through all of the noise to figure out which ones stand out is difficult. Add to it the extremely high attrition rate for the position and any list you come up with is going to be volatile. My list for right-handed starters is significantly longer than all of the other positions (and I could have easily gone much farther) because there are just so many guys that have a chance to be serious contributors in the majors.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders
Pt. 7: Center Fielders
Pt. 8: Relievers
Pt. 9: Left-Handed Starting Pitchers


1. Stephen Strasburg - Nationals (1)

If you could build the perfect pitcher in a lab, the result would very closely resemble Strasburg. Physically he is ideal; tall enough to get excellent leverage on his pitches but not so tall that his coordination suffers. He has a lightning quick arm and is an excellent athlete for a pitcher. He also has outstanding makeup. After not even being drafted in high school he committed himself to getting in better shape and working on his craft. The end result is that he is now the best pitching prospect in recent memory. In the past few years the only examples of pitchers that can even be compared to Strasburg when they were prospects are Felix Hernandez, Mark Prior and Josh Beckett, but Strasburg has a higher ceiling than any of them.