tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-201499892024-01-13T06:11:26.366-05:00Fonzie ForeverBaseball from a New York point of view.James Esattohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13823705871077609158noreply@blogger.comBlogger445125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-40224726689558177032013-05-09T22:07:00.002-04:002013-05-09T22:07:26.554-04:00On Matt Harvey’s Tuesday Night Brush With Perfection, Was It The Best by a Met All Time?Hey fans! Be sure to check my writing out over on <a href="http://thereadzone.com/2013/05/09/on-matt-harveys-tuesday-night-brush-with-perfection-was-it-the-best-all-time/" target="_blank">The Read Zone</a>. <br />
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http://thereadzone.com/2013/05/09/on-matt-harveys-tuesday-night-brush-with-perfection-was-it-the-best-all-time/<br />
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That got me to thinking – is this the best single start by a Met in the last ten years? In my lifetime? All time?</blockquote>
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Everyone who has read about Harvey’s perfect game bid over the last few days knows that the last Met to carry a bid as far was Rick Reed in 1998. But Reed did not finish the way Harvey did. To satisfy my own curiosity, I took a look at a couple of Mets players and performances to see if anything stacked up.</blockquote>
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It turns out Harvey’s game score of 97 is one of the highest that a Met has ever tallied in a nine-inning game. But how does it compare, in context, to some of the other most dominant Mets’ pitching performances in history? To take a look, I pulled up box scores from a) generally dominant Mets pitching seasons and b) historic Mets pitching performances that I could remember off the top of my head. Although this list is not exhaustive, I tried to include the best. They are ranked in order of personal preference.</blockquote>
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* * *<br /><b></b></blockquote>
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<b>#7 John Maine, 2007 – Game Score: 89</b>Sept 29 v FLA, 7.2ip, 1h, 2bb, 14k<br />I was also fortunate enough to be in attendance for this game. John Maine, in the second to last game of the season, mowed down the Marlins to keep the Mets’ season alive. Maine, like his contemporary Oliver Perez, was always an enigma, capable of using that electric high fastball to rack up strikeouts but lacking the control and secondary stuff to put together a dominant season. He managed a Game Score of 89 in only 7.2 innings, keeping the season alive for one more day.</blockquote>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-21800658413623216402013-04-15T10:50:00.000-04:002013-04-15T10:50:00.820-04:00The Greinke – Quentin Brawl, Was It More Than Just a Baseball Fight?I am blogging over at The Read Zone now, so go check out my new article on the Greinke-Quentin brawl and it's legal implications.<br />
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<a href="http://thereadzone.com/2013/04/14/the-greinke-quentin-brawl-was-it-more-than-just-a-baseball-fight/">http://thereadzone.com/2013/04/14/the-greinke-quentin-brawl-was-it-more-than-just-a-baseball-fight/</a><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 21.484375px; text-align: justify;">Everyone knows that sports have their own codes of conduct, and that each sport’s code is different. In football and hockey, full contact sports where the players are trained and equipped for contact, it is completely within the rules for players to hit each other with full force, pummeling one another into the ground or into plexiglass boards. In other sports, such as basketball and soccer, in which contact is incidental and but common, some contact is to be expected but is carefully limited.</span></blockquote>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-1751113738894200122012-11-24T14:06:00.001-05:002012-11-26T12:52:58.520-05:00Real Life Stats for the Players in the Movie "Major League"As I write this, I am watching (for the 65231th time) the incredibly amazing baseball movie Major League. While watching, I was curious and wanted to see if anyone out there had taken a stab at projecting what these players - whose names we all know so well after years of watching this movie - actually did on the field in that legendary 1989 season. As far as I can tell, only John Sickels did any projections (Sickels is amazing, and <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/7/14/1569303/ricky-vaughn-career-stats">it's worth a read</a>). ESPN also broke down the playoff game and <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sportscenter/post/_/id/19597/sportscenter-film-forum-major-leagues-fictional-player-of-the-game">awarded a fictional </a>MVP award (and correctly, at that) to Willie Mays Hayes. <br />
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This project is completely unscientific and just for fun, so please leave your own projection and comments in the comments section below. My best guesses are based on the context of the American League in 1989, the stats given in the movie itself, and other context clues. Keep in mind that, although the Indians are presented as lovable losers for most of the movie, they DID end up
winning 92 games. For that reason, the offense must have been pretty good, because aside from Ricky Vaughn, the only pitcher we really learn about in the movie is the ancient Eddie Harris, who is not presented as very good himself. Therefore, those 92 wins were not on the backs of their
pitching staff, and the Indians must have scored a lot of runs.<br />
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In the real life American League in 1989, hitters posted a collective slash line of .261/.326/.384. Pitchers in the AL that year had an ERA of 4.29, a WHIP
of 1.35, and 5.5 K/9. Hitters in the AL in 2012 batted a collective 255/.320/.411 and pitchers had a collective 4.08 ERA, a WHIP of 1.30 and a 7.4 K/9. Therefore, if you'd like to compare the numbers I end up projecting for our lovable Indians to the numbers you might see today, give all the batters a slight boost in slugging %, and give our man Ricky Vaughn an uptick in his K/9.<br />
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As for the real life 1989 Indians, we all already know that they did
not have a good season. The Indians hit worse than league average, putting up a line
of .245/.310/.365, although the pitchers acquitted themselves well with
a 4.04 ERA and 1.29 WHIP despite their home park being slightly
favorable to hitters. The real life MVP was the incredible Robin Yount, who posted a slash line of .318/.384/.511.<br />
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Now, back to the movie. We get most of our concrete information on the players from the final game of the season, in the playoff game between the Yankees and Indians for the AL East title. In it, they announce that Clu Haywood, the Yankee cleanup hitter and Indian-killer, is announced as the AL Triple Crown winner with a line of .341 average, 48 HR and 121 RBI. Those marks would have, in fact, narrowly won him all of those categories. (Puckett .339, McGriff 36 HR, Ruben Sierra 119 RBI). <br />
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On the pitching side, Duke Sierra, the Yankees closer, posted a line of 1.37 ERA, with 51 H and 48 BB in only 118 innings while being used as an Eckersley-type ace. We are also told he led the league in K/9, with 147 strikeouts over that span (11.2 K/9). So even if you love Vaughn, we can't project him with more strikeouts than that.<br />
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On to the guesses (asterisks indicate statistics mentioned in the movie):<br />
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<b>Jake Taylor - C</b><br />
The veteran catcher, slow of foot, showed no indications that he has a decent offensive season in 1989. They don't give us much to go off, except that we know that he bats second, behind Willie Mays Hayes. I'm going to assume that he has a decent OBP, no power, and doesn't strike out too much.<br />
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.245/.345/.325, 62 Runs, 5 HR, 52 RBI<br />
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<b>Ricky Vaughn - SP</b> <br />
After overcoming early season control problems, Vaughn really settles down and becomes one of the league's elite. He makes the cover of Sports Illustrated and throws 101 MPH in the season's final game. I imagine him to be a lot like a young Kerry Wood. It appears that he begins the season out of the pen, and works his way into the rotation.<br />
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Sickels projected Vaughn's 1989 season as such: 9-9, 114 IP, 89 BB, 129K, 3.79 ERA with 41 games played and 19 starts. I completely agree, although I think his ERA would be a little higher than that. <br />
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<b>Willie "Mays" Hayes - CF</b><br />
We see him in one scene nailing batting gloves to his wall. He had said earlier that he was going to have a pair for every base he stole. In this scene, which takes place right before the newspaper is shown, there are already approximately 50 pairs on the wall (the date on the newspaper is wrong, saying April). As such, I think we could project that he stole 70 bases, or even more. Rickey Henderson led the league with 77 stolen bases that year. <br />
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Pair the below batting line with what appeared to be Gold Glove caliber defense in center field, and you've got yourself a burgeoning young star and borderline MVP candidate.<br />
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.291*/.361/.378, 115 Runs, 7 HR, 55 RBI<br />
(Henderson hit .274/.411/.399 113 R, 57 RBI)<br />
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<b>Roger Dorn - 3B</b><br />
They talk about Dorn in the movie like he is a stud, although he admits to loafing defensively in the first half of the season. His offensive stats were probably pretty sharp, and as he showed later in the season when it mattered, he was quite good defensively. I imagine that in a good year, the unlikeable Dorn would also be a borderline MVP candidate. In real life, Robin Yount won the 1989 AL MVP with a remarkable line of .318/.384/.511, with the rest of the Top-10 vote getters having OPS'es around 800. I put Dorn in that neighborhood with the runners-up.<br />
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.272*/.362/.455, 85 Runs, 21 HR, 86 RBI* (his 86 RBI would have placed him just outside the Top-10 in the AL that year).<br />
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<b>Pedro Cerrano - RF</b><br />
Cerrano hits directly behind Dorn, and is known for prodigious power coupled with a propensity for strikeouts. With Dorn (and Hayes) hitting before him, I am sure that he had plenty of RBI opportunities.<br />
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.256/.310/.495, 76 Runs, 35 HR, 105 RBI (the slash line is Bo Jackson's line from 1989) <br />
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So there you have it. Hope you enjoyed it, and please leave your projections below.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-55844359986313983792012-08-21T23:34:00.001-04:002012-08-21T23:42:18.064-04:00Intellectualism, Sabermetrics and Stephen Strasburg's Innings-Limit<br />
The debate over whether the Washington Nationals should "shut down" young phenom Stephen Strasburg has been raging since early this season, when it became apparent that the Nationals might be good enough to challenge for a playoff spot.<br />
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Strasburg, as even casual fans are aware, is only two years removed from undergoing a procedure known as "Tommy John" surgery. The plan, as it was stated in the preseason, was for the Nationals organization to "take it easy" with Strasburg, and limit him to approximately 160 innings this season. However, with the Nationals contending and on their way to the playoffs, to shut down Strasburg at a set innings-limit will deprive the Nationals of a young man who is, ostensibly, one of the three or four best pitchers in the National League and who stands to be the very real difference between the Nationals winning or losing a short playoff series.<br />
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It is easy to see how proponents for both sides -- limit Strasburg or let him pitch -- have arguments that are easy to defend.<br />
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But as the saying goes, common sense is not so common, and apparently the merits of both sides are not apparent to all. Today, a writer for MLB.com weighed in on the debate, publishing an article called "<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120820&content_id=37050448&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb">Rizzo Right to Side With Doctors in Strasburg Debate</a>" and effectively said that anyone opposed to the innings limit was ignorant.<br />
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The Nationals had a plan for Stephen Strasburg long before this season began. They are sticking with that plan come heck or high seeding.<br />* * *<br />Colleague Matthew Leach says give the kid the ball and see how far he takes you. I say proceed with the plan.<br />* * *<br />Really, one opinion boils down to machismo, the other to medicine. Because while those in favor of extending Strasburg's season are siding with their inner competitor, the Nats are siding with medical evidence and intellect.</blockquote>
I don't even know where to begin on this. Not only does Anthony Castrovince create a false dichotomy -- that he must be limited to his innings cap or not; or that he dismissed the opinions of those who disagree with him as the result of "machismo" alone; or that he cites to a faux medical study that has been debunked a dozen times; but the worst of these, in my opinion, is that he deigns to speak for an entire class of fan.<br />
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Over the last decade, the sabermetric, analytical, statistically-inclined fan has earned a seat at the table when it comes to discussion of the game. Although there is still a long way to go, baseball has undergone a revolution whereby teams, front-offices, writers, and the players themselves have opened themselves up to a more advanced statistical analysis of the game. It hasn't been a straight line from Usenet to OBP to Baseball Think Factory to VORP to Moneyball to WAR, but as with any revolution in thinking, there are fits and starts.<br />
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Unfortunately, however, there are always those who either claim to be part of something that they are not, who co-opt a way of thinking for their own purposes, or just understand it. The article above appears to be a good example of this. <br />
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In his article, the MLB.com author cites to the Verducci Effect as the reason that Strasburg should be shut down for the year at a set innings cap. Those unfamiliar with the Verducci Effect cannot be blamed for thinking that the Effect is part of some thoughtful, advanced statistical analysis, developed by some egg-head sabermetrician in his mother's basement. However, the Verducci Effect is nothing of the sort.<br />
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As the author states, the Verducci Effect originates in a yearly colum where Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci "points out the risk in 25-and-younger pitchers whose innings increased by 30 or more from one year to the next (or, for those coming off injuries or a change in roles, the previous innings high, regardless of when it occurred)."<br />
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However, the Verducci Effect -- despite how uncontroversial and common-sensical it seems -- has been thoroughly debunked. <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-year-after-effect/">The Hardball Times</a> did a study and discovered that "pitchers who see a large increase in workload are more likely to continue to be successful than those who don’t." <a href="http://deadspin.com/5877565/the-verducci-effect-is-overworked-and-broken-down">Deadspin </a>did a great job consolidating other research studies and agreed that "every study" they could find "suggests that [the Verducci Effect] at best doesn't exist and at worst is backwards."<br />
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However, none of this appears to prevent the author of the MLB.com article from saying that the decision to shut down Strasburg is the result of "medical evidence and intellect", or that "Rizzo's expert-aided instinct" came from "the reams of research [Rizzo] has read."<br />
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Ordinarily I'd let an article like this go by without comment, but 1) it is on MLB.com, not some random garbage blog on the fringe of the internet, and 2) the tone of the article is sanctimonious and anti-anti-intellectual. Rather than stick with his "gut" or "instinct", the writer gets on a high horse and derisively dismisses anyone who would disagree with him on the basis of "medical evidence" that does not exist.<br />
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Ultimately, nobody knows what will happen with Strasburg whether he gets shut down or not. He was babied in the minors and required Tommy John surgery regardless. He may get hurt again if he's shut down tomorrow, or he might pitch 200 innings this year and never miss a day to injury because of it. Stephen Strasburg isn't Kerry Wood -- he's Stephen Strasburg, and trying to project exactly what will happen if he passes an inning threshold (arm explodes at 180.1 innings!) is a fool's errand. <br />
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It is incumbent upon MLB.com to do a better job with its content, and it is incumbent on the sabermetric community to make sure that, as sabermetric ideas become more mainstream, that the meaning of those ideas are not co-opted or twisted or misused by those who do not understand.<br />
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Brian Mangan is an attorney who lives in New York City and owns Stephen Strasburg in his keeper league and really, really does not want him to get hurt. However, as a Mets fan, he believes it to be inevitable.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-28671474554531550622012-08-01T14:52:00.001-04:002012-08-01T14:52:18.563-04:00NBC Should Be Ashamed of Bob Costas and Last Night's Interview of Michael PhelpsIt may have been longer in real-time, but in mere minutes after the completion of the 4x200 freestyle relay that ended up with Michael Phelps winning his 19th overall medal in Olympic competition -- hence becoming the most decorated Olympian of all-time -- Phelps sat down via satellite for an interview with Bob Costas of NBC.<br />
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This is not an Olympic or general interest blog, but I've got to take a moment away from regularly scheduled programming to say that Costas, and NBC, should be ashamed of the treatment of Phelps in said interview. Here is part of the transcript of the interview[1]: <br />
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Bob Costas: “Let’s talk about that 200 butterfly. You had the lead much of the way. You were out-touched by Chad Le Clos of South Africa 5 one-hundredths of a second. It’s hard to say that when you win a silver medal that something has gone wrong but your standard is so high that I guess we can put it that way. <b>What went wrong</b>? </blockquote>
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Michael Phelps: Um… ... there are times I go slow into the wall or touch lazy and it showed... And, sure I’d like to have been 6 one-hundredths faster but there’s nothing I can do about that right now, it’s time to move forward... </blockquote>
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Bob Costas: But virtually anybody else’s standards you’re still working like a demon but in 2008 in Beijing you were at the peak of fitness, peak of talent and technically you were also better than everybody else… <b>Is it fair to say that even a little bit, where things are measured in one-hundredths of a second, even just a little bit, you’re not quite where you were in ’08</b>? </blockquote>
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Michael Phelps: No, that’s obvious… For me I’m just having fun. Being at my fourth Olympics. Representing the USA, the greatest country in the world.<br />(…)<br />Bob Costas: <b>You’re one of the greatest competitors ever but I get the sense things are winding down in your career</b>…</blockquote>
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I find discussion of Michael Phelps' training, and his relative abilities compared to Beijing 2008 to be interesting. But now was not the time to be asking these questions. As I sat on my couch watching the interview, I felt myself becoming more and more offended by the way Costas was constantly wearing down Phelps.<br />
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Phelps, like him or not, literally just became the most prolific Olympian of all time. The odds are, he will be setting a record in London that will not be broken in our lifetimes. How can Costas sit there and ask him about his failings? How can you make the central focus of the interview -- not a slight tangent, not a curiosity -- the fact that he's been better, and could have been better, and that he has failed to be his best?<br />
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For what it's worth, he completed the 200m Butterfly yesterday in 1:53.01. He was the second fastest swimmer in the pool, after Le Clos, and only missed out on victory by the narrowest of margins -- by .05 of one second. His time yesterday, although good for second, was faster than every recorded 200m Butterfly time <i>in history </i>prior to 2007. It was also within a second of the Olympic Record, which he set in Beijing. Of the 37 swimmers who competed in the 200m Butterfly at this year's Olympics, only ten of them came within even three seconds of that time -- the other 27, who came from all over the world to compete, wouldn't have even been in the frame of the TV picture at the finish line against Phelps.<br />
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He's at the peak of human performance, and he's within a millimeter of his own peak performance. Who is to say that the amount he fell off has as much to do with training as it does with age? With the conditions that day? With luck? With his specific performance in that run that has nothing to do with conditioning or desire?<br />
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The point is, there is a time and place for that kind of post-mortem. A discussion of peak athletes and their ability to remain at their optimal performance level is interesting. But not now -- not when Michael Phelps is barely out of the pool, and when the gold on his medal from his most recent victory is still cool from the box that it was sitting in before the medal ceremony. Not when he's minutes separated from accomplishing what is probably the greatest individual feat in the history of sports.<br />
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Michael Phelps is the best of all time. He's an American. And he was due a lot more respect than he was given in that interview. Nobody -- and I mean nobody -- is going to be able, years from now, to look back on his first interview after his accomplishment and feel anything resembling pride, listening to Phelps apologize and speculate as to why he wasn't better. And it's a damned shame.<br />
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Brian Mangan is an attorney who lives in New York City. He loves the Mets, the United States, and adherence to the proper decorum within your profession.<br />
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[1] Courtesy of <a href="http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/08/bob-costas-interviews-michael-phelps-after-setting-all-time-olympic-medal-record-and-shames-him-video/">The Gateway Pundit</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-24890244765743074422012-06-02T02:59:00.006-04:002017-11-05T17:44:30.086-05:00It Happened<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Feel like I should talk about this since for the final two innings I was literally shaking and I never got up from my chair because if I moved from where I had been sitting for the previous hour and a half I would ruin everything and feel like an asshole.<br />
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I screamed when the final out was recorded, because for the first time in Mets history a pitcher wearing a Mets uniform threw a no-hitter. All but one team - the San Diego Padres, est. 1969 - has thrown at least one. It was a black cloud that always followed the New York Mets. It was a statistical oddity that underscored that the Mets are an inferior franchise that fuck up every chance they get.<br />
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On their 8,020th attempt, the Mets threw a no-hitter.<br />
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I feel embarrassed even admitting to my visceral reaction, but I think it’d be a hell of a lot weirder if I didn’t react that way. I thought for a long time about it, and I can confidently estimate that I’ve watched at least 1,700 of the previous 8,019 Met games. So 1,700 times, something never happened. And then tonight, something that never happened happened. Sometimes when something that never ever happens happens, it’s really bad, like when a second baseman drops an easy pop up to lose a game against your geographic arch nemesis where seemingly everyone you know is watching. That sucked. That physically hurt. Same with your favorite player looking at a third strike to end a season where you were the best team in the league and you let yourself believe that it was The year. That also hurt. Tonight was great. It’s still great as I’ve been flipping for the last three hours across the cableverse between SNY, ESPN and MLB Network finding more and more opinions (they range from Johan Santana was “great” to Johan Santana was “awesome”) and camera angles and interviews (“This was great!”) and reading tweets from Mets fans typing and texting out their disbelief and joy. Hearing in the postgame press conference that manager Terry Collins told Santana he was his hero, and Collins took ten seconds to try to not get choked up to say something like, “Yeah whatever. Sports.”? So embarrassingly corny and perfect. Ridiculous and stupid and loaded with dumb machismo “sports is war” garbage and fucking great. Also, WFAN Mets broadcast producer Chris Majkowski (<a href="http://twitter.com/metsWFAN">@metsWFAN</a>), who is there for every single game, who has tweeted every time a Met pitcher gave up the first hit of a game “Not today boss” for something like four years got to finally tweet this<br />
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I actually read the tweet before the final pitch of the game appeared on television, confirming once and for all that “live” is a seven second delay. It didn’t completely ruin the moment because I automatically assumed it could be a terrible prank and it proved that I literally had to see it to believe it.<br />
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There has been many ink spilled trying to perfectly articulate how baseball is a metaphor for life that basically tries to say that because there are 162 games played in a calendar year that following a baseball team is like following your life where millionaires play out your daily battles between good and evil. Sometimes Luis Castillo will inexplicably drop a pop up/someone close to you dies out of nowhere. Sometimes Johan Santana throws a no-hitter against the team that ended The year/you meet your future wife at the Oscars after you accept your Best Original Screenplay award. Something like that.<br />
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Of course it’s dumb.Life is life, not life is life and also baseball. But following a baseball team like the Mets does feel a lot like being religious: You blindly have faith that one day it’s all going to pay off and you’re going to get to go to Heaven when you die and ask John Lennon why he was such an asshole because you know he’d appreciate your honesty/your team is going to win a World Series, but there’s very little evidence that it’s going to happen. During the journey to the destination you can draw strength from your Faith and do important and amazing things, and sometimes the Mets will have exciting and successful seasons and that’ll be fine and dandy, but in the end it’s all about a cloud with your name on it and for the 25 men that play for your team to win a championship.<br />
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But what the fuck am I supposed to do? Over the years as I developed adult friendships and other interests (Television! Writing! Writing about television! Writing for television! Comedy! Ladiez! Not necessarily in this order!) my relying on the Mets to inform me on what mood I should be in dissipated, but I still end up watching a part of or all of 90-100 games a year. I still play baseball on Saturdays when the weather is right, even though I’m not particularly good. I hate that I’m not good at something I love. I’m reminded of it almost every Saturday, but I keep coming back for more. Baseball will always be a part of me, for better or worse, and when the Mets finally got a no-hitter tonight after I’ve seen them somehow not manage to do it 1,700 times before I was very happy. I gladly took phone calls of congratulation as if I had thrown the thing myself, after the eighth inning I texted friends who I figured weren’t watching to alert them that something special might happen, I made sure not to tweet at all because when the game started I wasn’t tweeting anything and I wasn’t going to blow this. And when the Mets win a World Series when I’m older than 3 years old so I can actually appreciate and be aware of what the hell is going on it’s going to be amazing, because I invested all of this time through the years rooting for the team. And lord, it hasn’t been easy.<br />
<br />
<br />
I emcee a trivia night every Tuesday in Brooklyn. I usually write half of the questions but because my writing partner is on vacation I'm responsible for all of them this week. I went from joking that I know what my very first question will be to writing "Which major league baseball franchise is the only team to never throw a no-hitter?" to thinking "When am I ever going to get an opportunity like this ever again? When will us Met fans? Let's celebrate."<br />
<br />
<i>1. Who pitched the first no-hitter in New York Mets history?</i><br />
<br />
<br />
When June began the Mets never threw a no-hitter and haven't won a World Series in my lifetime. <br />
Now the first thing can be crossed off the bucket list.<br />
<br />
One more to go.<br />
<br />
<span class="st">No, I'm not telling you what the other questions are.</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-55166192580700965042012-04-26T12:30:00.000-04:002012-04-26T12:30:04.904-04:00Yankees' Michael Pineda Out for SeasonBad news for the Yankees today, as they found out that their promising young starter, Michael Pineda, has a <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/25/michael-pineda-has-a-torn-labrum-surgery-scheduled/">tear in his labrum </a>and will miss at least a year. <br />
<br />
As most of you know, Pineda was acquired in the offseason in a trade which involved the Yankees' former top prospect, Jesus Montero, a highly regarded hitter. Most observers were fascinated by the trade -- a promising young pitcher for a promising young hitter (and two more minor prospects, one on each side thrown in).<br />
<br />
We here at Fonzie Forever canvassed our Yankee fan friends, and found most of them to be in favor of the deal. After all, Jesus Montero was a player without an obvious defensive position, and Michael Pineda had already established himself in the big leagues at the tender age of 22, with a 3.74 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 171 innings for the Mariners last year.<br />
<br />
Although it was too early at the time to judge a winner or a loser (and in fact, even with Pineda's injury, it is still too early to tell who will ultimately win or lose) Fonzie Forever always felt that trading a promising young hitter on the cusp of the big leagues for a promising young pitcher is never a good move. The attrition and injury rates among pitchers is simply too high. For that reason, we didn't think it was a wise move for the Yanks.<br />
<br />
Either way, bad luck for the Yankees. And although I am an avowed Yankee-hater for life, you hate to see bad things come about as a result of injuries.<br />
<br />
All the best to Pineda in his recovery, and Yankee fans, worry not -- I'm sure I'll be watching the pinstripes in October anyway (jerks).Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-12503639341404139172012-01-02T23:00:00.000-05:002012-01-02T23:12:01.410-05:00Bernie Williams: A Mets Fan's Take on his Hall of Fame CandidacyGrowing up in New York City in the 90's, it was not easy being a Mets fan. To be clear, it's *never* easy being a Mets fan, but the 90's -- particularly the late 90's -- was an a particularly trying time for a baseball-obsessed teenager to like the Mets. As a high school student at the time, I knew that each September would deliver me the distinct pleasure of returning to school with the Yankees setting their playoff rotation and the Mets limping flaccidly to the finish line.<br />
<br />
To make matters worse, my high school was located in downtown Manhattan, a stone's throw from the Canyon of Heroes. As a result, my classmates and I were fortunate enough to have a front row seat to not one, not two, but THREE Yankee World Series Championship Parades (they failed to win the World Series -- losers! -- in 1997). <br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7Ew_hogZSZk/TwJ9rDsNL8I/AAAAAAAAAIY/YhFoXTW5kIk/s1600/ticket.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="249" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7Ew_hogZSZk/TwJ9rDsNL8I/AAAAAAAAAIY/YhFoXTW5kIk/s320/ticket.jpg" width="320" /></a>Aside from 1999 and 2000, Mets fans didn't have much to root for late in the year and would be subject to torture by our much more fortunate classmates. (Not that September was always entirely uninteresting to a good fan back in the day... Did you know Lance Johnson had 21 triples in 1996?) Years of this behavior instilled a definite, permanent hatred in my heart for all things Yankees -- so much so, in fact, that even though I spent a week convincing myself that I'd root for the Yankees to beat the Phillies in the 2010 World Series, it took only one pitch before I hated the Pinstripes again. It was reflexive. <br />
<br />
In the midst of all this Yankee dominance, there was one character who seemed to defy everything that I knew about the Yankees and against whom I felt no enmity: <b>Bernie Williams.</b><br />
<br />
As anyone reading this already knows, for the better part of a decade -- and especially in the late 90's -- <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willibe02.shtml">Bernie Williams</a> was an awesome, All-Star, Gold Glove-winning centerfielder for the Yankees. Bernie was going to play good-enough defense, play 140 or more games, and hit .330. He batted cleanup on a stacked, multiple World Series winning team. But ... I didn't hate him. And as I see Bernie's name for the first time on the Hall of Fame Ballot, I gave it more pause than I originally thought that I would. Is Bernie Williams a Hall of Famer?<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wN8AkHzdoGY/TwJ9y-x7D8I/AAAAAAAAAIk/GIyC-FkTgMo/s1600/BernieWilliams.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wN8AkHzdoGY/TwJ9y-x7D8I/AAAAAAAAAIk/GIyC-FkTgMo/s320/BernieWilliams.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
I'll save you guys some reading: a quick look at his raw career statistics implies that he is not. With only 287 home runs and 2,336 hits, he didn't play long enough at a high enough level to accumulate the impressive statistics that the Hall of Fame voters require for entry to the Hall. He only once led the league in a significant statistical category -- batting average, in 1998. He never won the MVP, or placed higher than 7th. None of his Baseball-Reference top ten most comparable players are members of the Hall themselves (though a few are still active). <br />
<br />
So why can't I shake this Bernie Williams thing? Why do I feel like Bernie Williams has at least an *argument* for the Hall .. and why do I feel this way as a Mets fan?! <br />
<br />
<i><b>Phenomenal Peak Hitter</b></i><br />
<br />
In the prime of his career, few put up as impressive batting lines as Bernabe Williams. From 1995 to 2002 -- a span of eight incredible years -- Bernie Williams batted .321/.406/.531. His OPS of 937 was good for an OPS+ of 142. He walked almost nearly as much as he struck out.<br />
<br />
Not sure how good an OPS+ of 142 is? For that stretch of time, he was basically <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/braunry02.shtml">Ryan Braun </a>(career 145 OPS+) or Prince Fielder (144 OPS+). Think MVP-winner <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml">Josh Hamilton </a>is a good player? Well, Hamilton has a career OPS+ of 134, weighted strongly toward slugging percentage rather than on-base percentage, and can't stay particularly healthy. For the better part of a DECADE, Bernie Williams was as good, or better than all of them.<br />
<br />
<i><b>Centerfielder</b></i><br />
<br />
Although he was never regarded as a brilliant defensive centerfielder (four Gold Gloves notwithstanding), Bernie did all that he did and he did it at one of the most important and challenging positions on the diamond. Oh, and he did win those four Gold Gloves. <br />
<br />
According to Fangraphs, Bernie was not bad defensively in the majority of his career. Although he declined precipitously beginning in 2003, at the age of only 34, Total Zone has Bernie as only 59 runs below average as a center fielder over the first twelve years of his career. <br />
<br />
<i><b>Championship Winner</b></i><br />
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LG6PymcNbDo/TwJ9_wB5dTI/AAAAAAAAAJI/kA_i3Pmif68/s1600/sn_a_yankees_trohpy_200.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LG6PymcNbDo/TwJ9_wB5dTI/AAAAAAAAAJI/kA_i3Pmif68/s1600/sn_a_yankees_trohpy_200.jpg" /></a>Even more, as much as people want to talk about <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml">Derek Jeter </a>or the Yankees "Core Four" of Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, and Rivera, nobody's career coincided with Yankee Championships better than that of Bernie Williams. Bernie donned pinstripes from 1993 to 2006 as a full-time player, but was truly a full time, healthy force from 1995 to 2002. In that time period, the Yankees, as we all know, won the World Series four times -- or 50% of the seasons that Bernie played at his peak.<br />
<br />
His name litters the all time postseason leaderboards. He's second all time in postseason runs, hits, doubles, and home runs. In most of these categories, he is second to Derek Jeter -- a player who has over 150 more postseason plate appearances than Bernie does. He's third all time in walks, but only by one, and he's somehow miraculously still FIRST all time in postseason RBI.<br />
<br />
I don't mean to say that any of the above "winner" stuff should factor too seriously into Hall of Fame voting. However, Hall of Fame voters, as currently constituted, DO factor things like that into the equation. So why the lack of buzz about Bernie?<br />
<br />
<b>Putting all of the above into context, it is really hard to understand by Bernie Williams has not been </b><b>getting more attention when it comes to the Hall of Fame</b>. <br />
<br />
His mainstream credentials above are strong. His sabermetric credentials are even stronger. Starting with 1995, Bernie posted a WAR of 4.9 or higher every year except one (when he posted a 4.2 WAR) and peaked at a value of 6.7
WAR. Bernie made only five all-star teams, but by all accounts, should
probably have been on seven or eight. <br />
<br />
He compares incredibly favorably to other center fielders. As a current example, my love for
Carlos Beltran is well pronounced, but even the most successful stretch
in his career pales in comparison to Bernie. From 2003 to 2009,
the prime of Beltran's career, when Beltran averaged 27 home runs and 25
steals per year, he still only posted an OPS+ of 128.<br />
<br />
A writer named Lincoln Mitchell <a href="http://www.thefastertimes.com/baseballbythenumbers/2011/12/06/dont-dismiss-bernie-williams-hall-of-fame-candidacy-too-quickly/">over at the Faster Times</a> brought up a truly incredible statistic last month when discussing Bernie's candidacy:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Another way to assess Williams candidacy
is to determine how many center fielders in the history of the game had
clearly better careers. The list is shorter than one might initially
think . . . One way to see this is that Williams
played 1,924 games in center field during a career where he posted an
OPS+ of 125. In the history of the game, <b>only eight players have played
1,700 or more games in center field with an OPS+ of 115 or better.
Three of these players, Williams, Griffey and Edmonds are not eligible
for the Hall of Fame. The other five are all in</b>. Williams’ numbers are
far behind those of Cobb, Mays, Speaker and Mantle, but are better than
Edd Roush’s and a cut behind contemporaries Griffey and Edmonds.<i><b> </b></i></blockquote>
Even as a Bernie Williams fan, I could not believe that the above was true.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, as of this writing, Bernie Williams is not going to make the Hall of Fame. Even worse, according to the list put together by the guys over at <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/">Baseball Think Factory</a>, it looks like Bernie will be one-and-done, and not even get another year on the ballot:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
92.6 - Barry Larkin<br />
...<br />
43.2 - Lee Smith<br />
...<br />
11.1 - Don Mattingly<br />
...<br />
2.5 - Bernie Williams </blockquote>
After 81 ballots were published online and aggregated, it looks like he'll fall short of the 5% required to remain eligible for Hall voting the next year.<br />
<br />
I am glad that some guys (Bert Blyleven comes to mind) have made the Hall of Fame after a grassroots campaign developed for them, or hung around for years and became part of the debate (Ron Santo, Jack Morris, Andre Dawson). Unfortunately for Bernie, it doesn't appear that he'll have a chance to do that, and I can tell you that Fonzie Forever has neither the traffic or panache to do what <a href="http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/01/rich_lederer_be.php">Rich Lederer now famously did </a>for Blyleven. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kA-LW4E-T74/TwJ-UXShvXI/AAAAAAAAAJU/qjNKly1hdpY/s1600/bernie_williams.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="137" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kA-LW4E-T74/TwJ-UXShvXI/AAAAAAAAAJU/qjNKly1hdpY/s200/bernie_williams.jpg" width="200" /></a>So, although I cannot help Bernie get the respect that I think he rightfully deserves, I can still use my soap box to say thank you.<br />
<br />
Bernie Williams always played the game with class. He was, for a time,
an elite hitter who played center field, won four World Series, and owns
the most glorious of mainstream postseason records (RBI). He was even
so much of a True Yankee (tm) that they <a href="http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/yankees-bury-bernie-williams-under-new-stadium-for,2433/">buried him under the New Yankee Stadium</a> for luck.<br />
<br />
Thank you for your charity (<a href="http://berniewilliamsday.org/2011/09/30/bernie-williams-to-play-charity-softball-game-and-concert-in-ridgefield-ct/">here</a>, <a href="http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/18/bernie-williams-going-to-bat-against-hunger/">here</a>, <a href="http://www.berniewilliams.net/HFO.html">here</a>), your <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Journey-Within-Bernie-Williams/dp/B00009VGX9">music</a>, and your <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070520&content_id=1976931&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb">wisdom</a>. And thank you for proving to a teenaged-version of myself that even on a horrible, evil empire like the Yankees, that there is the capacity for good. Thanks.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>"I know there's certain things regarding your job or whatever you may
end up doing [that you don't like], but I'm here to tell you, don't let
your job define who you are. Your relationships will define who you
are. No matter what you choose to do in life ... you
are going to be in a position to make an impact on somebody's life."- Bernie Williams</i></div>
<br />
<br />--------------<br />
Brian Mangan is a lawyer who lives in New York. He is glad to have survived the baseball-trauma of his mid-90's youth so that he could live to see the Mets' ten times more upsetting current state of affairs.<br />--------------<br />
Follow us on twitter at <a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/fonzieforever">@fonzieforever</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-2753128106450590652011-12-30T09:34:00.001-05:002011-12-30T09:35:53.080-05:00Good Night Sweet Prince<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZVkKbU-cx9c/Tv3L6AT8yHI/AAAAAAAAAbI/EYE97n1aHiE/s1600/melvin-mora-new-york-mets-crossing-plate-autographed-photograph-3345977.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="255" width="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZVkKbU-cx9c/Tv3L6AT8yHI/AAAAAAAAAbI/EYE97n1aHiE/s320/melvin-mora-new-york-mets-crossing-plate-autographed-photograph-3345977.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<a href="http://tracking.si.com/2011/12/30/melvin-mora-retires-after-13-seasons-in-major-leagues/">Melvin Mora retires</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-21781045916091415402011-12-14T01:34:00.000-05:002011-12-14T01:34:23.097-05:002011-2012 Non-Tenders: Slim PickingsA huge shout out to the estimable MLB Trade Rumors site for <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/2011-non-tenders.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed">putting together the list </a>of the 29 players non-tendered by their teams this offseason and who are now free agents. In the past I have enjoyed putting together a comprehensive list of non-tenders and free agents who I thought would make sense for the Mets -- unfortunately, due to time, I will only be able to review a few this time around. <br />
<br />
Without further adieu, a reproduction of the entire list, and a highlight of the players I like:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Catchers (5)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chris Gimenez,
Koyie Hill, Ronny Paulino, Eli Whiteside, Jason Jaramillo</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b> Second basemen (2)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jeff Keppinger,
Will Rhymes</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b> Shortstops (1)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pedro Ciriaco</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b> Outfielders (5)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mike Baxter, Cole
Garner, Jeremy Hermida, Luke Scott, Ryan Spilborghs</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b> Utility infielders (2)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Brooks Conrad,
Ryan Theriot</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b> Starting Pitchers (2)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Jo-Jo Reyes, Joe
Saunders </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b> Right-handed relievers (7)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fabio Castillo,
Dan Cortes, Willie Eyre, Clay Hensley, Peter Moylan, Micah Owings, Andy
Sonnanstine</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b> Left-handed relievers (5)</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rich Hill,
Hong-Chih Kuo, Aaron Laffey, Jose Mijares, Doug Slaten</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The players that I select will be selected in light of what their projected cost might be and the needs of our squad. For that reason, you won't see guys like Hong-Chih Kuo (too expensive), Joe Saunders (too expensive), Micah Owings (will likely return to current team), or Mike Baxter (just non-tendered him) on this list.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>#1 - 2B Will Rhymes</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rhymes, aside from having a great name, is 28 years old and was non-tendered by Detroit this year after a disappointing season where he hit .235/.323/.271 in 99 at bats. Rhymes is a very disciplined hitter -- he made contact on 92.6% of his swings in the majors -- and plays passable defense at second base (-3.6 UZR/150 in 600 innings). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Rhymes is not going to light anyone's hair on fire, but he has hit .305 and .306 in Triple-A over the last two seasons, and posted an OPS of around 770. In my book, he's worthy of bringing in as an non-roster invite to compete with Murphy at second base in light of the lack of other options (and don't say Jeff Keppinger to me, as his defense appears to be falling off a cliff and he's got no value if he isn't batting .320).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>#2 - OF Jeremy Hermida</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
You know who this guy is. And I say, why the hell not. What happened to Jeremy Hermida is one of the great mysteries of modern times (along with Lastings Milledge, Elvis, and Pop Tarts) but even so he has been moderately valuable over the last few years.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hermida has remained an average defender in right field for his career, and has posted excellent UZR's in his last two seasons in right (approximately +30 UZR/150 in a small sample of 275 innings). Although he batted .190 in his last stint in the majors, he possesses a career 749 major league OPS and is only 27 years of age. Given regular playing time in the minors for Cincinnati, Hermida put up a .319 average and 924 OPS. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Hermida can play good defense and hit .250, he'll definitely provide positive value, provided how tarnished his stock has become. Hermida will likely latch on somewhere as a non-roster invite and make the major league minimum. He is an adequate fifth outfielder option with some upside (I would start him every day in Triple-A).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>#3 - RP Clay Hensley</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I realize the Mets have added epic depth to their bullpen, but in terms of above non-tenders who they can afford who have a little upside, Hensley fits the bill. Hensley, like the others, struggled last year, posting a 5.19 ERA and -0.1 WAR. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, Hensley is also the possessor of a 3.94 career ERA and is coming off a season where he posted a 2.16 ERA (2.87 FIP) for the Marlins in 2010. His peripherals supported the performance, as Hensley struck out 9.24 batters per nine innings in his season-long dominant performance.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hensley missed time with injury last season, but provided that he is healthy, would be a great addition for the Mets to keep or to trade at the deadline as I've heard so many suggest about our other bullpen acquisitions (though seriously people, this does not happen as often as you think).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>#4 - SP Rich Hill</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hill had a breakthrough performance in 2007, striking out 183 batters and posting a WHIP of only 1.19. Unfortunately for him, he's been derailed by injuries (bad) and forced to play for the Orioles (worse).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
His last four seasons, Hill has pitched only 89 major league innings, and struggled in almost all of them and underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year. He still had the "stuff" the last two years before going down with injury, so he's an intriguing flier. He won't contribute to the squad in 2012, but he may be worthy of a look for late next season or for 2013.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>I Also Like...</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Peter Moylan and Luke Scott, should the price be right.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-48258470723660615612011-12-13T01:55:00.003-05:002011-12-13T01:55:40.627-05:00Amazin Avenue: The Updated State of the Mets' 2012 BudgetChris McShane over at <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/12/12/2617286/the-updated-state-of-the-mets-2012-budget#comments">Amazin Avenue </a>did us the solid of putting together a good chart of the Mets finances for the upcoming year. I'd copy and paste it here, but I don't know how. I'm going to try below. <br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 300px;"><tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3"><th align="center">Pos.</th> <th align="center">Player</th> <th align="center">$ (Millions)</th>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">C</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/69238/josh-thole">Josh Thole</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">1B</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/70384/ike-davis">Ike Davis</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">2B</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32691/daniel-murphy">Daniel Murphy</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">3B</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/873/david-wright">David Wright</a></td>
<td align="center">15.3</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">SS</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/70971/ruben-tejada">Ruben Tejada</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">LF</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/361/jason-bay">Jason Bay</a></td>
<td align="center">18.1</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">CF</td>
<td align="center">Andres Torres</td>
<td align="center">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RF</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/34105/lucas-duda">Lucas Duda</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">Bench</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32681/mike-nickeas">Mike Nickeas</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">Bench</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32807/justin-turner">Justin Turner</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">Bench</td>
<td align="center"><br /></td>
<td align="center"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">Bench</td>
<td align="center"><br /></td>
<td align="center"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">Bench</td>
<td align="center"><br /></td>
<td align="center"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">SP</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/733/johan-santana">Johan Santana</a></td>
<td align="center">24.0</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">SP</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/31375/r-a-dickey">R.A. Dickey</a></td>
<td align="center">4.8</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">SP</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/33407/jon-niese">Jon Niese</a></td>
<td align="center">0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">SP</td>
<td align="center">Mike Pelfrey</td>
<td align="center">5.9</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">SP</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/69235/dillon-gee">Dillon Gee</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RP</td>
<td align="center">Frank Francisco</td>
<td align="center">6.0</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RP</td>
<td align="center">Jon Rauch</td>
<td align="center">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RP</td>
<td align="center">Ramon Ramirez</td>
<td align="center">2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RP</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/316/tim-byrdak">Tim Byrdak</a></td>
<td align="center">1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RP</td>
<td align="center">Manny Acosta</td>
<td align="center">1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RP</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/33408/bobby-parnell">Bobby Parnell</a></td>
<td align="center">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">RP</td>
<td align="center"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/32831/d-j-carrasco">D.J. Carrasco</a></td>
<td align="center">1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center"><b>Total</b></td>
<td align="center"><br /></td>
<td align="center"><b>91.1</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
There are two things to take away from the above chart:<br />
<br />
#1<br />
<br />
Santana + Bay + Wright = $57.4 million<br />
Rest of Roster = $43 million<br />
<br />
A pretty sad state of affairs.--<br />
<br />
One thing that I noticed, in all the hand-wringing about Jason Bay's salary, is how many people are claiming that they knew at the time that the Bay signing was terrible. UH-WHAT? I don't think so! That was ONLY Fonzie Forever, while the rest of you Mets fans suspended disbelief. <a href="http://www.metsblog.com/2009/12/30/reaction-to-mets-signing-jason-bay/">Metsblog </a>put together some internet reactions to Bay ... most were positive, if reluctantly so:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Ed Ryan from Mets Fever says, “Nice job, Omar.”<br /><br />According to John, from Metstradamus, “This is a good move. In a vacuum, it’s a great move.”<br /><br />On the other hand, while Mets Grrl likes Bay, she explains why her reaction was just, ‘ehhh.’<br /><br />Mike Silva of NY Baseball Digest explains, “When it’s all said and done, the Mets needed Bay.”</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Greg Prince of <a href="http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2009/12/30/the-first-met-of-the-next-decade/" target="_blank">Faith and Fear in Flushing</a>
is happy to have Bay, but says, “Mind you, I’m not overwhelmed by his
presence. He’s not a franchise player, but he’s performed at a high
level for quite a while now and he’s not in his early forties.”<br />
<br />
In a post to <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/30/1225050/will-jason-bay-be-the-mets-best" target="_blank">Amazin Avenue</a>, Dan Lewis asks if Bay will be the team’s best-hitting left fielder ever; also at <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/30/1224941/on-jason-bay" target="_blank">Amazin Avenue</a>, Sam Page explains why Bay is a ‘heck of a consolation prize.’</blockquote>
Matt Cerrone of Metsblog said "I like it, I don't love it." <br />
<br />
Only here did we say <a href="http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2009/12/jason-bay-is-colossal-mistake-how-bay.html">Jason Bay is a Colossal Mistake</a>. When you're right, you're right. <br />
<br />
#2<br />
The Mets will be rolling with a payroll of between $91 and $100 million next season, meaning that they have trimmed almost $50 million of the payroll in one year. There is unlikely to be further relief in the next few years, seeing as Santana, Bay, and Wright will most likely not go anywhere, but that's a tremendous cut.<br />
<br />
How much of that is Madoff related? You HAVE to think that if the Mets were in a normal state of finances right now, they they would have been able to simply reinvest that money into the team, don't you?<br />
<br />
I wouldn't have run out and spent it all on Pujols, but my goodness, could you imagine? Want to put some butts in the seats at Citifield next year? How about this lineup (with Pujols at $25MM and Reyes at $15MM).<br />
<br />
SS Reyes<br />
2B Murphy<br />
3B Wright<br />
1B Pujols<br />
RF Davis<br />
LF Duda<br />
CF Torres<br />
C Thole<br />
P Whoever<br />
<br />
They would score a thousand runs (and yes, I realize Bay is not in the lineup). Bay and Santana come off the books in 2013, which would be offset by raises in our long term deals, but the lineup above is NO MORE EXPENSIVE than the payroll we've been running the last three seasons.<br />
<br />
As we've been saying all along -- the money helps, but you've got to spend it wisely.<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-48208319652676029022011-12-06T23:11:00.001-05:002011-12-07T10:27:55.592-05:00Met Fan Self Immolation Thread: Part 2?Years ago, over at the greatest baseball site in the history of the planet, Baseball Think Factory (please do not click and go there, because the masses will ruin it), there was something called:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/21959/">THE OFFICIAL METS FAN SELF-IMMOLATION THREAD</a>.<br />
<br />
It was posted the day that the Mets traded away Scott Kazmir -- the most highly lauded talent in the Mets farm system in almost a decade -- and a busload of other promising prospects for Victor Zambrano and Kris Benson, and did so in a season where any rational fan knew they had little to no chance of making the playoffs.<br />
<br />
Educated fans, like the folks over at BBTF, were rightly enraged. The day was dubbed by some to be Black Friday, and it was indeed a bad day for the franchise. I remember where I was when I heard the news that Kazmir had been traded ... it was one of those tragic sports moments frozen in time. But the day was July 30, 2004, and nobody had any idea of what was to come in the next few seasons. It is hard to believe that in only eight short years, the Mets have had a) the Beltran strikeout against Wainwright in the 2006 NLCS, b) the 2007 Collapse, c) the 2008 Collapse, d) the K-Rod incident, e) the Bernie Madoff mess, and so many other misfortunes. <br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cdyV_jwKRRE/Tt8PhnLbl-I/AAAAAAAAAHQ/pbKVedKiX9o/s1600/1-+1d7c92e84b52b54f33fcbddf0304.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cdyV_jwKRRE/Tt8PhnLbl-I/AAAAAAAAAHQ/pbKVedKiX9o/s320/1-+1d7c92e84b52b54f33fcbddf0304.jpeg" width="296" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><u>I hope you like looking at this face.</u></i></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><u><br /></u></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
I originally hoped today that I would be able to write a thoughtful piece about how, in light of the fact that we lost our beloved Jose Reyes, that trading David Wright for Hanley Ramirez might be a good idea for both the Mets and the Marlins. But then some interesting news came out.<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The Mets signed Jon Rauch today, <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/12/6/2616970/mets-sign-jon-rauch">reportedly </a>for $3.5 million plus incentives. Uh, interesting.<br />
<br />
Then the Mets traded away Angel Pagan, one of my favorites, for Andres Torres and relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez.<br />
<br />
Then, to (hopefully) complete their flurry of activity, the Mets have <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/mets-agree-to-two-year-deal-with-francisco.html">apparently signed</a> reliever Frank Francisco to a contract for two years and $12 million.</blockquote>
<br />
So all in all, the Mets traded Pagan for Torres (a bad swap) and added three relievers today. <b>More importantly, they added approximately $9 million to their payroll for this season -- that's $9 million that could have been spent in any number of different ways.</b><br />
<br />
Considering that the Mets decided that they could not match a six year, $102 million offer for Jose Reyes -- which amounts to only $17 million per year -- it is hard to know exactly what Sandy Alderson's plan is. The Mets could have kept Reyes, a franchise player, but instead they chose Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and eight million dollars. And as you know, they did not even deign to make him an offer. <br />
<br />
<b>Why?</b><br />
Why let the beloved franchise player leave and sign replace him with known mediocrity?<br />
<br />
Is it to win now? Obviously not.<br />
Is it to win later? Well, what's the point of the short term relief pitcher signings?<br />
Is it to give up on the next few years, and use these relievers as trade chips at the deadline? If that was the plan, why didn't they trade Reyes last summer rather than letting him leave as a free agent and get almost nothing back in compensation?<br />
<br />
All of this -- in conjunction with many of the other moves the Mets have made, both on and off the field over the last few seasons -- leads me inescapably to an unattractive conclusion. None of these moves make sense in terms of the product that Mets fans will see on the field in 2012 or even 2013. So what could be their motivation?<br />
<br />
<b>It all stinks. </b>It stinks and it leads me, against my will, to an inescapable conclusion. Money. Wilpon money.<br />
<br />
You see, it's not that the owner of the Mets, Fred Wilpon, doesn't have the money to make any baseball move that he wants. Regardless of what happens with Bernie Madoff, the Wilpons will be affluent beyond most of our wildest dreams. But the Mets -- <i>as an entity itself</i> -- is bleeding money. When Sandy Alderson had his press conference with reporters on Sunday night, he acknowledged the fact that the Madoff situation, regardless of the hand-wringing of so many fans, probably did not affect their decision to let Reyes go:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Q: Absent Madoff, could you have played this differently?</i>
<br />
<br />
A: "Bernie Madoff and his specter are always referenced in these
situations. I don't really think Madoff has that much to do with it. But
when a team loses $70 million irrespective of Bernie Madoff or anyone
else, that's probably a bigger factor in our approach to this season and
the next couple than anything else."
<br />
<br />
<i>Q: Is $70 million loss for 2011 only?</i>
<br />
<br />
A: "Big losses. Let's put it that way."
</blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-17h-Z8pV88Q/Tt8Pgx3IMbI/AAAAAAAAAHA/jvBmzHbqkTQ/s1600/3-+money1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a></div>
Source: <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/36857/alderson-on-losing-reyes">Adam Rubin, ESPN</a><br />
<br />
And that's the bottom line. A team cannot be thinking about its on-field baseball fortunes when they, as a big-market team, let a player the caliber of Jose Reyes walk out the door without making him an offer, and then THE SAME WEEK goes out and signs two mediocre relief pitchers. Relief pitchers who were on the waiver wire in my <i>fantasy</i> league all season long[1].<br />
<br />
While both pitchers will be better in the National League next season than they were in the loaded American League East, the two of them combined will not help the Mets win more games than Jose Reyes would. It provides the team some flexibility in the future, and it gives them eight million in cash on hand this year, but it makes them markedly worse[2].<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ejz4Ysgluk4/Tt8Pgieho4I/AAAAAAAAAG4/4KhXD8AB2-Q/s1600/4-+jose-reyes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ejz4Ysgluk4/Tt8Pgieho4I/AAAAAAAAAG4/4KhXD8AB2-Q/s320/4-+jose-reyes.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
It has to be money. By letting Reyes go and signing two relievers, Sandy Alderson and company did one thing for sure: <b>they made next year's team more marketable, rather than less</b>. I realize that might be counterintuitive to fans like myself who loved Jose Reyes, but to the mainstream media and general fans, Jose Reyes was an oft-injured underachiever, and a constant reminder of a failed Mets era.<br />
<br />
The Mets team that will take the field next year will be worse, but they will a) have less reminders of the painful recent Mets past and b) will blow less saves. <b>That's a strategy that will likely bring more fans to the stadium in 2012 -- a season which will be bleak and terrible, no matter what moves they made this offseason.</b><br />
<br />
Don't believe it? Well you should -- because something like this just happened recently.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MLuIPNnXkMU/Tt8QjrQhxrI/AAAAAAAAAHY/d88ehE1-udo/s1600/armando+benitez+%25282%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MLuIPNnXkMU/Tt8QjrQhxrI/AAAAAAAAAHY/d88ehE1-udo/s1600/armando+benitez+%25282%2529.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><u><i>I'll wait, I'm sure you are calling (718) 507-TIXX right now.</i></u></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In 2003 the Mets were not a good team, and they played the majority of the year with a roster that was downright unlikeable. Roberto Alomar, Armando Benitez, Mo Vaughn, and Jeromy Burnitz, to name a few. All of them underperformed on the field, and all of them were inexorably tied to GM Steve Phillips and the disappointment that followed after the Mets failed to follow up on their 2000 World Series run. That season, in 2003, the Mets won 66 games and drew a paltry 2.1 million fans -- the lowest figure since 1997.<br />
<br />
The next year, the Mets had jettisoned all of those players, and took to the field with fresh faces that the fans loved. Jose Reyes and David Wright electrified the lineup. There was reason to believe, thanks in part to Scott Kazmir, that the Mets farm system provided hope for the future. That lovable team, with a bullpen anchored by Braden Looper's sparking 2.70 ERA drew <a href="http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/metsattn.shtml">over 2.3 million fans to the ballpark</a> -- almost 170,000 more paying fans -- but only won five more games than its predecessor. Not exactly the trend you would expect from a team mired in its third consecutive losing season.[3]<br />
<br />
I'm not going to engage in the use of hyperbole, or drastic and emotional language to describe what my favorite baseball team just did. In the past few days I've heard the loss of Reyes described in more <a href="http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/12/5/2612317/all-things-must-pass">dramatic </a>and <a href="http://www.patrickfloodblog.com/2011/12/05/strangled-by-reality/">colorful </a>ways than I had even imagined, and we knew this day was coming for a while.<br />
<br />
The problem is that the franchise appears to be run by an entity that cares more about the bottom line than it does about the product on the field -- and only cares about the players when they equate to wins and tickets. What was the ultimate failing of Steve Phillips? After rescuing the team from mediocrity with a series of wildly successful trades and signings, along with strong stewardship of the farm system, he ultimately sank the team with costly free agent contracts. What was the ultimate failing of Omar Minaya? After rescuing the team from mediocrity with a series of wildly
successful trades and signings, along with strong stewardship of the
farm system, he ultimately sank the team with costly free agent
contracts. Both GM's -- though completely panned by fans and media alike today -- experienced great success at one point. Both steered a team back from the brink, but appeared to be stricken with the same madness before they were run out of town.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-q1BKJ4DyV3Y/Tt8RcxEsIwI/AAAAAAAAAHg/xexdeBQLnfc/s1600/Best_Infield_Ever.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-q1BKJ4DyV3Y/Tt8RcxEsIwI/AAAAAAAAAHg/xexdeBQLnfc/s320/Best_Infield_Ever.jpg" width="245" /></a></div>
Who do you think was more responsible for the Scott Kazmir trade? The same GM who stole Mike Piazza and Mike Hampton for a bag of magic beans, lifted Robin Ventura from the scrap heap, and watched Edgardo Alfonzo become a star? Or the owner who had just seen attendance soar to almost record highs?<br />
<br />
Who do you think was more responsible for Francisco Rodriguez and Jason Bay? The same General Manager who stole Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana for pennies on the dollar, lifted players like Jose Valentin from the scrap heap, and watched David Wright and Jose Reyes become stars? <br />
<br />
Obviously, from where we sit, there is no telling for sure. But there has been only one thing about this organization that has remained consistent since 2002.<br />
<br />
None of these transactions, taken alone, truly justify a Met Fan Immolation Thread: Part 2. But Mets fans are faced with a very difficult reality -- the loss of hope. Every team, unless you are the Yankees, has to rebuild, to a certain extent, some time. But facts are facts, and we as a franchise just lost our best and most marketable player, to a division rival, over nothing more than money. Rebuilding will take a long time if it is something that merely will happen by coincidence, and finance, and not something which is the result of ownership's commitment to a plan, and to winning, and to doing it regardless of how many fair-weather fans come out to the stadium in a given year.<br />
<br />
It's sad that Jose Reyes is gone. The even sadder thing, for the franchise, <b>is who remains. </b><br />
<br />
-------------------------------------------------<br />
<i>Brian Mangan is an attorney who lives in New York. He is a lifelong
Mets fan and a former (and hopefully future) Mets season ticket holder.</i><br />
-------------------------------------------------<br />
<br />
<i>Follow Roger's tweets at @FonzieForever.</i><br />
-------------------------------------------------<br />
<br />
Footnotes!<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7_FnwL2sNro/Tt-F1DP70cI/AAAAAAAAAHo/D5uZ50dPZv4/s1600/2-+chair.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7_FnwL2sNro/Tt-F1DP70cI/AAAAAAAAAHo/D5uZ50dPZv4/s1600/2-+chair.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><u><i>True story.</i></u></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
[1] For the uninitiated, Rauch and Francisco were both on the Toronto Blue Jays last season. Rauch posted a 4.85 ERA with a career ERA of 3.82. Francisco had an ERA around his career average of 3.72, and is best known for throwing a chair at a fan while with the Rangers. <br />
<br />
[2] Remember, also, that contracts are often backloaded. There is no reason that, if the payroll number was set at a certain amount, that the Reyes contract could not have been backloaded so that he earned around $10 million this season rather than his average of $17 million over the life of his current contract.<br />
<br />
[3] The <a href="https://www.teammarketing.com/public/files/2011_mlb_fci.pdf">Fan Cost Index</a>, which is nifty, gives you the total price for a family of four to go to a ballgame provided they have a modest day (four hot dogs, only two beers, etc.). For 2011, the FCI for a family of four seeing a Mets game was $241.74. That number, adjusted for 170,000 additional fans coming to the ballpark, amounts to just over $10 million.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-19332274353231393882011-12-05T00:28:00.001-05:002011-12-05T00:55:46.133-05:00Instant Reaction: Jose Reyes Signs with MarlinsI'll skip citing to official reports that the deal is done, as they are all over the internet right now.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesjo01.shtml">Jose Reyes </a>to the Marlins, six years, $106 million. That's $17.6 million per year, likely backloaded somewhat. A bargain for the Marlins?<br />
<br />
I'd say yes.<br />
<br />
Over the last six years, even with his injury-plagued 2009, Reyes was worth $118 million to the Mets, as per the calculations at Fangraphs. The Fangraphs numbers are not bible, of course, and contain a number of assumptions, but are useful as a quick-and-dirty evaluation tool.<br />
<br />
That said, in terms of on the field value alone, Reyes will -- provided he has a streak of health similar to his time with the Mets -- provide the Marlins with somewhere in the neighborhood of what he is being paid. He's 28 today, and will only be 34 at the end of the deal.<br />
<br />
In addition to his on the field contribution, Reyes is an incredibly marketable player. Curmudgeonly columnists and old-dudes asides, Reyes was undoubtedly the most beloved Met over the last two seasons, and arguably longer. He resonates with young people, with minorities, with those who cherish speed and defense, and with those who are enamored with those who play the game with joy. Namely -- all of us.<br />
<br />
The Marlins got a bargain, and it will be interesting to see the reaction that Reyes garners when he returns. If he sees success in South Florida, I imagine those that wanted him gone will attempt to paint a picture of a player who matured only after he left, but who would never have been a star in New York. If he fails in his sojourn, they will congratulate themselves for identifying a player who would never have succeeded.<br />
<br />
For those of us who know better, we are left only to wonder. We know that Reyes, imperfect as his time in New York was, was nothing less than a superstar. He is the Mets only batting champion, all time leader in runs scored, second in hits, first in steals, and fourth in total bases. He did all this, as a shortstop no less, yet still left us as not much more than a pup.<br />
<br />
This news is not unexpected, but it is no less sad. As impartial as we are, and as much as I'd like to approach most transactions as an economist, we are all fans. I'm sorry to see Jose go -- especially since at that price (or even a little more) it would have made sense to keep him.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-20811154337591979422011-11-21T01:09:00.001-05:002011-11-21T02:17:56.917-05:00The Rise and Rise of the Wilpon Baseball Empire<div class="tr_bq">
</div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">The Rise and Rise of the Wilpon Baseball Empire</b><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Over the last 30 years, Fred Wilpon
has gone from regular fan, to minority owner, to half owner, to complete owner
of the New York Mets. And it’s going to
take more than a run in with Bernard Madoff to unseat him.</i><br />
<br />
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-E3YwdOnKpgo/Tsn4yc4ruqI/AAAAAAAAAGo/sMF2RiTNlJM/s1600/6+madoff.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="148" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-E3YwdOnKpgo/Tsn4yc4ruqI/AAAAAAAAAGo/sMF2RiTNlJM/s200/6+madoff.jpg" width="200" /></a>Recently, I was reflecting my Mets and this whole Fred Wilpon - Bernie
Madoff mess and it occurred to me how many drastic changes have occurred in
such a short period of time. One day,
it's a billion dollar lawsuit; the next, the majority of the lawsuit is thrown
out by a judge. One week they are entering into a tentative agreement with
hedge-fund millionaire David Einhorn to purchase a stake in the team; the next,that
deal is <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/mets/story/2011-09-01/Mets-deal-off-with-investor-David-Einhorn/50220212/1">no
longer on the table</a>.<br />
<br />
When his deal fell through with the Mets, Einhorn had some very interesting
comments for the media. "I was very surprised to see that many of the
provisions of the deal, that were in place since May, had been changed. A
week ago I thought this deal was in great shape and would be done very
soon." (<a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCsQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmlb.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Farticle.jsp%3Fymd%3D20110901%26content_id%3D24048116%26vkey%3Dnews_mlb%26c_id%3Dmlb&rct=j&q=mets%20investor&ei=NuicTqGiF4TY0QHH8-nGCQ&usg=AFQjCNGC-l9eATG-ehWFi3CXNDtB_8X0SA&sig2=Scfyovh74uqMJTg8e3SurA&cad=rja">link</a>).
In a statement, Einhorn accused the Mets owners of changing the terms of the
deal at the last second, saying that the "extensive nature of changes that
were proposed to me at the last minute has made a successful transaction
impossible." [1]<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rV_IGYJh9fc/Tsn3XQvBxpI/AAAAAAAAAFg/tmPguVXRwVw/s1600/1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-rV_IGYJh9fc/Tsn3XQvBxpI/AAAAAAAAAFg/tmPguVXRwVw/s320/1.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
<br />
It goes without saying that those are some pretty serious allegations from
Einhorn. As fans, we may not know what
to make of them, because we don’t know too much about the guy. Were his comments the sour grapes from a
spurned partner? Or could the Wilpons truly have surprised him with the
changes they proposed at the last second?<br />
<br />
Before I go further, it bears mentioning that Fred Wilpon is extremely
well-regarded, both personally and professionally. His acumen in baseball and in real estate,
his true career, have never been questioned.
His company, Sterling Equities, is considered a star in the
industry (excellent business-side writeup <a href="http://www.multifamilyexecutive.com/management/home-run.aspx">here</a>). As the New Yorker explained in
its brilliant article on Wilpon and Madoff earlier this year:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“But Fred is in the very next group, with the Rudins, the Resnicks, and the
Zuckers.” Wilpon’s reputation transcends the extent of his holdings. “Everybody
likes Fred, there is tremendous respect for Fred, people listen to what he has
to say, and I don’t know of anybody who has ever had an open fight with him,”
Spinola said. “They’d all like to beat each other out, but I have never heard a
negative thing said about Fred Wilpon.” William Rudin, the chief executive of
Rudin Management, said, “Fred’s reputation in the real-estate community is top
tier. He couldn’t be more of a gentleman.” (<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/05/30/110530fa_fact_toobin#ixzz1bIIfdbGq">New Yorker</a>)</blockquote>
But for me, I am most interested in the Mets, and in learning more about how
Fred Wilpon became the powerful figure that he is today. The following is some of what I’ve learned,
from public sources, about some of the more important occurrences in the history
of our franchise.<br />
<br />
We’ll never get into that board room and hear the conversations between the
Wilpon and Einhorn teams, and we’ll never see the actual term sheets that were
proposed, but one thing that lends credence to Einhorn’s claims is an examination
of how the Wilpons broke into the sports industry and gained their
influence. Fred Wilpon’s ascent to power
has been a consistent and inexorable march.
<br />
<br />
In fact, the recent saga with David Einhorn is not even close to being the
most interesting ownership saga surrounding the Mets in the last decade.<br />
<br />
<b>THE DOUBLEDAY-WILPON SEPARATION</b><br />
Before blogs were a ubiquitous part of the way we get our sports news –
exponentially amplifying the hype and noise and speed with which we get information
– the Mets went through a very dramatic ownership drama. In August of 2002, Fred Wilpon and Nelson
Doubleday consummated an agreement whereby Doubleday would sell his share of
the Mets to Wilpon and end a bitter, fifteen year relationship as co-owners.
The day the agreement was made public, the Times reported:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Nelson Doubleday and Fred Wilpon ended their public
feud over how much the Mets were worth yesterday and agreed to a deal in which
Wilpon would purchase Doubleday's half share in the team... The legal dispute
between the two men erupted last month when Wilpon filed suit in United States
District Court in Islip, N.Y., to force Doubleday to accept the payment terms
set out in a $391 million valuation of the Mets. The lawsuit exposed the
distrust and acrimony that had simmered between them for years. </blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Doubleday did not look good at the time. In the article, Doubleday is
referred to as a "blustery scion of publishing wealth" who claimed
that Wilpon was "in cahoots" with Major League Baseball. The
article continues on to call Wilpon, the "quieter, self-made real estate
developer" who was able to successfully "undermine" Doubleday's
arguments. So long as the New York Times was concerned, there appeared to
be a winner in the court of public opinion.<br />
<br />
But what really happened there? Does that incident provide context for
what happened with Einhorn? And how much of it can be explained by the
extremely close relationship between Fred Wilpon and MLB Commissioner Bud
Selig?<br />
<br />
<b>THE HISTORY BETWEEN THE TWO MEN</b><br />
Nelson Doubleday was, at one time, the majority owner of the New York
Mets. In 1980, Doubleday & Co. purchased the Mets from owner Joan
Payson – and a man named Fred Wilpon was allowed to join as a minority partner
owning five-percent (check out the fantastic picture of young Wilpon <a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/the-mets-under-fred-wilpon-1.2903913">here</a>.)
The dynamic changed drastically, however, in 1986, when Doubleday sold Doubleday
& Co.– the entity which officially owned the Mets -- but wanted to keep the
team itself. When this happened, Fred
Wilpon took full advantage. The New York
Observer, in an article published 2000, describes how Wilpon made his move:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“In the beginning, Doubleday Publishing owned 95
percent of the team… But around the same time, Mr. Wilpon was outmaneuvering
Mr. Doubleday, parlaying his 5 percent stake into half-ownership. At the time,
Mr. Doubleday was selling the publishing company that owned the Mets to the
German firm Bertelsmann A.G. But Mr. Wilpon had a right of first refusal in the
event of any sale of the team, and his lawyers made it clear he was ready to
exercise it. In a settlement, the two men agreed to become equal partners,
paying Bertelsmann $81 million for the team. It has been said that Mr.
Doubleday never forgave Mr. Wilpon.”
</blockquote>
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8KoaXEw6vxI/Tsn3n2fQ9jI/AAAAAAAAAFw/d_XK4LevcnM/s1600/2+shrug.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="154" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8KoaXEw6vxI/Tsn3n2fQ9jI/AAAAAAAAAFw/d_XK4LevcnM/s200/2+shrug.jpg" width="200" /></a>According to the Times, Doubleday was actually entirely “unaware of that
clause in the contract” allowing Wilpon to make that power-play, and “resented”
Wilpon’s status as an equal ever since.
So while Doubleday intended to keep the team even though Doubleday &
Co. was being sold, Wilpon’s “right of first refusal” gave him the power to
purchase the team before it could be sold to anyone else. It certainly appears that Fred Wilpon was
wise to negotiate that right for himself and then use it to his advantage. This will be important later on, as will the
fact that the Mets were valued (at least by Bertelsmann and the partners) at
over $80 million in 1986.<br />
<br />
From that day on, by all accounts, the two men shared a difficult and
acrimonious partnership. The Observer
explained in 2000:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
About the only thing the Mets co-owners share these
days, it seems, is their barely concealed distaste for one another. Since they
became equal partners in 1986-in a hostile takeover of sorts by Mr. Wilpon-the
two men have been engaged in an on-again, off-again struggle for power over the
team, dividing the front office into warring camps and fighting proxy battles
over hirings, firings and trades.
</blockquote>
By the time that late 2001 rolled around, Wilpon and Doubleday were
reportedly closing in on a deal for Wilpon to purchase Doubleday's share of the
team. According to sources, Wilpon had already previously scuttled a deal
whereby Doubleday and Wilpon would have sold 80% of the team to Cablevision in
a deal valuing the Mets at $500 million [2].
However, Wilpon wanted to retain control of the team and talks
continued.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
When the possible sale of the team to Cablevision
was being negotiated two years ago, the price was said to be $400 million for
80 percent ownership, with Wilpon and Doubleday each retaining a 10 percent
share. Two months ago, Forbes magazine valued the Mets at $454 million. The
potential deal with Cablevision fell through because Wilpon decided he wanted
to retain control of the club and eventually turn it over to his son,
Jeff. Times, June 22, 2001
</blockquote>
With no resolution in sight, Doubleday chose to invoke a clause in his
contract requiring Fred Wilpon to buy out Doubleday’s half of the team [3].
The price for said buyout would be determined not by the Cablevision offer, or
the Forbes valuation, or by the market, but by a neutral arbitrator -- and
that, as they say, is where the plot thickens. <br />
<br />
<b>THE APPRAISAL, THE LAWSUITS, AND THE FINGERPRINTS</b><br />
The arbitrator appointed to decide the value of the Mets franchise was a man
named Robert Starkey (no relation, as far as I can tell to Richard Starkey,
a.k.a Ringo Starr). Mr. Starkey’s valuation did not please Doubleday: <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Doubleday initiated the process that sent the sale
to an appraiser, but when that appraiser, Bob Starkey, came back with his
supposedly binding decision that the club was worth $391 million, Doubleday was
furious. Last month he threatened to sue, suggesting that Major League Baseball
and Wilpon had conspired to deflate the value of the club. (Daily News,
July 25, 2002)
</blockquote>
Under that appraisal, after team debt was factored in, Doubleday stood to
receive only $137.9 million for his entire stake in the team, which was lower
than forecasts in the media which expected Doubleday’s take to be around $200
million. When Doubleday balked at the price, Fred Wilpon sued him
to compel him sell his share of the team in accordance with the terms of the
contract. I’ll let the New York Times, in an article published at the time, explain:<br />
<blockquote>
''Now that the appraisal has been performed,
Doubleday, unhappy with the result, seeks to renege on his contractual
obligation,'' Wilpon's seven-page complaint contends, ''and has indicated his
intention not to abide by the appraisal and not to transfer his interest in the
team.'' (NY Times, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/12/sports/baseball-wilpon-sues-doubleday-to-try-to-force-him-to-sell-his-half-of-the-mets.html?pagewanted=2&src=pm">July
12, 2002</a>)
</blockquote>
Doubleday counter-sued, challenging the independence of the appraiser and
calling the entire process a "sham."<br />
<br />
As an observer reading this in 2011, there should be no surprise that Bud
Selig's was an important figure in this deal. Today, Fred Wilpon has been
called "Selig's closest friend among the baseball owners," no
surprise to anyone who has followed the Mets over the last few years (Daily
News, <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2011/02/05/2011-02-05_bud_seligs_legacy_hinges_on_the_future_of_signature_mlb_franchises_like_the_mets.html">Feb.
5, 2011</a>). But back in 2002, a potential conflict was not quite so
clear. Remember, of course, that Doubleday's complaint is that the valuation
provided by the "independent" arbitrator, Richard Starkey, was over
$100 million too low. With that in mind, the Times continues:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Doubleday contends that the appraisal by Starkey,
who is under contract to Major League Baseball and has done work for the
Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers, deflated the Mets' value with faulty
methodology. He has indicated to others that Starkey's independence was
suspect because of his ties to Commissioner Bud Selig, the former owner of the
Brewers. <b>It was Selig who recommended Starkey for the job</b>.
</blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Interesting, of course, but not conclusive of anything. However, when viewed in light of the economic
climate at the time – and the competing goals of all the people involved –
there becomes a much clearer picture. The
New York Post, of all news organizations, may have connected all the dots for
us back on August 7, 2002, when they took a look at what the Wilpon v.
Doubleday suit could do to Bud Selig and to baseball, which was currently in
the midst of a labor dispute. In their abstract [5] they explain:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
If the court rules in favor of Doubleday, [Bud
Selig]'s credibility will be shot from coast to coast... Many in baseball shook
their heads in disbelief that Doubleday agreed to [MLB mediator Richard] Starkey,
knowing his relationship with Selig and knowing that in the year of labor
strife, Doubleday was playing with fire...
</blockquote>
Why would Selig want the Mets undervalued, besides wanting to cozy up to
Wilpon and assuring his support on all labor matters? Well, for one thing, the
lower the value of franchises – as established by an “independent” accountant
-- the more leverage that the Commissioner’s Office would have in arguing that
player salaries need to be suppressed.<br />
<br />
<b>THE VALUE OF THE NEW YORK METS FRANCHISE</b><br />
It appears that Nelson Doubleday was right about the Mets' valuation being
too low.<br />
<br />
According to most, the definitive source for franchise valuations in the
last twenty years has been the yearly list published by Forbes Magazine.
Each year, Forbes releases a list of Franchise Values, a comprehensive
valuation of each team which looks at factors such as location, fan loyalty, and
capital investments (ex. stadiums). <br />
<br />
This past year, the Mets were valued at $747 million,a sum which was reduced
in light of the Mets struggles both on and off the field in the last two seasons.
The Mets value – even excluding the enormously valuable SNY -- was $912 million
back in 2009. But what does this have to do with Nelson Doubleday?<br />
At first glance, the $391 million valuation that Starkey arrived at for the
Mets may not have appeared to have been enormously out of line. Compared to other baseball franchise
sales in the early 2000's, the Mets valuation fit in nicely.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
2002: Mets $391 million</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
2002: Red Sox $700 million (*included
80% stake in NESN)</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
2002: Marlins $158 million </div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
2002: Expos $120 million (purchased
by Major League Baseball)</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
(source, UPenn <a href="http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?filename=0&article=1020&context=wharton_research_scholars&type=additional&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D1%26ved%3D0CB8QFjAA%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Frepository.upenn.edu%252Fcgi%252Fviewcontent.cgi%253Ffilename%253D0%2526article%253D1020%2526context%253Dwharton_research_scholars%2526type%253Dadditional%26rct%3Dj%26q%3Dbaseball%2520franchise%2520transactions%26ei%3D7fqcTqTMMerh0QHF8YydCQ%26usg%3DAFQjCNGfdegFyeGkBhRNVJmD2kPbVTwgqg%26sig2%3DLQyTNc1L3vo2PiGeYew7bg#search=%22baseball%20franchise%20transactions%22">Wharton
Research</a>)</div>
</blockquote>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
Add to this the very commonly held
notion in the media at the time that baseball was in decline, and with league
wide attendance generally stagnant despite the addition of four new franchises
(COL, FLA, ARI, TB), and you can see why speculators might not be betting on
baseball franchise values. (<a href="http://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/1990-99attendance.htm">source</a>) In light of baseball’s perceived struggled, an
outside observer may be able to understand why franchise values were lower than
what you might otherwise expect. </div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-q5KNA3_dgw0/Tsn4BhN07qI/AAAAAAAAAGA/0YgaOvNi3P0/s1600/Forbes-Logo_registered.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="48" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-q5KNA3_dgw0/Tsn4BhN07qI/AAAAAAAAAGA/0YgaOvNi3P0/s200/Forbes-Logo_registered.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
Even so, back in 2002, the Mets <a href="http://www.forbes.com/lists/2011/33/baseball-valuations-11_New-York-Mets_334564.html">were
valued by Forbes </a>at a healthy $482 million, about a hundred million dollars
more than the figure suggested by Starkey.
It is also almost identical to the the figure suggested by Doubleday and
allegedly offered by Cablevision to purchase the team. The Mets had been
valued at $249 million in 1999, but appreciated a whopping 29% in one season. (<a href="http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/1999/05/18/Franchises/FORBES-MLB-TEAM-REVENUE-LIST-DRAWS-IRE-FROM-SOME-TEAMS.aspx">link</a>).
Skewing those numbers even further is that the late 90's were a strange time
for these kinds of franchise valuations. In fact, a look at the top five
franchises that year, the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Atlanta Braves,
Baltimore Orioles, and Colorado Rockies -- indicates that there was a healthy
hysteria about revenue sharing. If the
value Forbes came up with for the Mets was wrong, the odds are that it was too <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">low</i> in light of these concerns. <br />
<br />
Wilpon, of course, supported the Starkey’s number -- but his view of the
value of the franchise today is much more bullish. In the now-infamous article written by
Jeffrey Toobin for the New Yorker (the one in which he said Wright was “not a
superstar,” among other things), Wilpon had the following to say about the
value of his franchise:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Today, as Wilpon negotiates with possible
investors, he says it’s clear that the team is worth more than a billion
dollars. “There’s one National League franchise in New York,” he said. “Fifty
years from now, there’s going to be one National League franchise in New York.
That’s a very valuable thing.” New
Yorker, <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/05/30/110530fa_fact_toobin#ixzz1bIIsDBdw">May 30, 2011</a>
</blockquote>
One person who would certainly agree that the Mets are healthy and valuable would
be Fred Wilpon’s close friend Bud Selig.
But it doesn’t require too thorough of an examination to appreciate how
drastically both men’s characterizations as to the financial health of the franchise
has changed over the last decade, even in the face of a nation-wide recession<br />
<div style="margin-left: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<b>LABOR STRIFE AFFECTED THE SALE OF THE METS</b><br />
As mentioned above, back in 2001 when Wilpon and Doubleday were in the midst
of their ownership battle, there were some questions about the financial
strength of the league. You may recall
that in the winter of 2001, baseball owners voted in favor of contracting two
teams from the league. That decision
initiated a firestorm, both in baseball and in politics in general. Thereafter Selig was entangled in hearings in
front of Congress, subpoenaed by Attorneys General, and MLB was the subject of
a slew of legal injunctions.<br />
It was Selig’s contention at that time – as baseball’s labor agreement was
expiring -- that baseball was
broke. Flat broke. Selig was specific, too, saying in 2002:<br />
<blockquote>
Commissioner Bud Selig recently told the Los
Angeles Times that without major changes in Major League Baseball's economic
structure, "I would say six to eight [teams] can't exist another year,
another year and a half. We're talking about the immediate future. There's a
lot of clubs that simply can't survive the status quo." (<a href="http://static.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/misc/1388690.html%20">Source: ESPN</a>)
</blockquote>
It was a number that was absurd in 2002.
It is even more absurd today. <br />
<br />
But not everyone agreed with Selig’s assessment of the league. Doug Pappas, the chairman of SABR’s Business
of Baseball Committee [6] and writer for Baseball Prospectus had this to
say in an article published in December of 2001:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
According to the commissioner,
MLB somehow managed to lose $519 million in 2001 despite record revenues of
more than $3.5 billion. This claim was met with derision by virtually all
independent observers. They note that franchise values have not fallen, and
that even the owners of "failing" teams like the Expos and Marlins
won't sell out unless they can remain in baseball with some other team.
</blockquote>
Pappas continues, in April of 2002, in outlining the inexplicable gap
between Selig’s valuations and the ones developed by Forbes.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Add <i>Forbes</i> to the ever-growing list of those
who don't believe MLB's cries of poverty… While MLB claims operating losses of
$232 million in 2001, <i>Forbes</i> estimates that the 30 teams turned a
collective <b>profit</b> of $76.7 million. That's a difference of more than $10
million per team… All told, the difference between Selig's valuations and <i>Forbes</i>'s
is about $1.5 billion--$50 million per team, or an additional $600 million of
debt which would be allowed if MLB used the <i>Forbes</i> numbers instead of
its own arbitrary "values."
<br />
<br />
This bears repeating: an independent expert
analyst, with no stake in the results of its analysis, concluded that MLB's
2001 operating profits were $300 million higher than reported by Commissioner
Selig, and that MLB's franchises are worth a collective $1.5 billion more than
suggested by the Commissioner's valuation formula.
(Baseball Prospectus, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/20020403pappas.shtml">April 3, 2002</a>)<br />
</blockquote>
If you are interested in the details, I definitely recommend that you click
through and read the archive that Baseball Prospectus’s made public on the
topic. But the point made by Pappas,
Forbes, Congress and others at the time is crystal clear – baseball was MUCH
healthier than Selig and the rest of the Commissioner’s Office was letting on. <br />
<br />
Perhaps Nelson Doubleday’s claims that baseball conspired with Starkey to
“manufacture phantom operating losses” and that the Commissioner’s office was
“in cahoots” with Wilpon were not so far off after all.<br />
<br />
<b>THE HEALTH OF MLB TODAY</b><br />
If you’re not convinced by the above independent appraisals, how about Fred
Wilpon’s position that the Mets are a BILLION dollar franchise today? And don’t just take my word or Fred Wilpon’s
word for it – but how about Bud Selig, the same man who tried to convince the
world that baseball was bankrupt?<br />
When asked right before Game 7 of the World Series the other night about
MLB’s $25 million loan to the Mets, he made some very optimistic comments. When asked whether he was concerned about the
loan – which is now a few days short of being a year old – Selig said that “I
do have a lot of concerns but I am happy to say that the Mets aren’t one of
them.”[7]<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
As for the health of baseball in general, Selig said “the game has never
been more popular. There isn’t any doubt
about that, any criteria you want to use, it’s more popular than ever. But it’s impact is great than it’s ever been
and there is no question about that.”
[New York Post, October 29, 2011]<br />
<br />
According to Forbes, baseball is financially stronger than ever. In the preface to their most recent list of
Most Valuable Teams, they wrote:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Baseball has emerged from the recession with a big
bang. The average MLB franchise is now
worth $523 million, an all-time high and 7% more than last year. All of the
league’s teams rose in value except for three… Strong attendance and local
television ratings boosted the values for [many] teams … [while] 73 million
fans showed up at the ballpark last summer, which was the sixth highest total
of all-time and down just 0.4% from [the year before].
</blockquote>
The only threat, financially, to
baseball at the current time seems to be with our very own New York Mets. In fact, between the problems of the Mets and
the Dodgers, baseball’s revenue sharing pool dropped for the first time since
the current system was put in place in 2002.
In what should come as no surprise, however, Selig does not view the
Mets a “concern”. [8]<br />
<br />
<b>THE FUTURE OF METS’ OWNERSHIP</b><br />
So long as Bud Selig is commissioner of baseball, it is appears that the
Wilpon family will remain in full control of the Mets for as long as they want
to be. How else can we explain the Mets
spurning David Einhorn as a minority investor?
The fact that they get interest-free loans without a maturity date has
to help:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Selig approved a $25 million emergency loan to the
Mets and has supported the team’s efforts to attract a capital infusion from a
minority investor. Wilpon was appointed by Selig to baseball’s executive
council and Peter Stamos, a partner of the owner in the Sterling Stamos Capital
Management hedge fund, is chairman of the MLB Investment Advisory Board.
(<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/selig-bends-rules-to-fit-as-baseball-attempts-to-oust-mccourt-from-dodgers.html">Bloomberg</a>)
</blockquote>
This is particularly interesting in light of the hard-line Selig has taken
with Frank McCourt and the Dodgers, to whom Selig would not even approve a new
television deal which may have saved the Dodgers from bankruptcy. The Wall Street Journal characterized it
similarly, opining that Selig “pulled nearly every lever within his power to
force” McCourt to sell the organization.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Hq5TJbjn8LM/Tsn4YecBL8I/AAAAAAAAAGg/49My4Mkjwkc/s1600/3+handshake.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Hq5TJbjn8LM/Tsn4YecBL8I/AAAAAAAAAGg/49My4Mkjwkc/s320/3+handshake.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
As part of the ongoing Dodger saga, Selig installed a monitor to oversee the
team’s operations and, in June, it was reported, he refused to approve a new TV
contract that would have given McCourt enough cash to likely keep the
franchise. The Dodgers filed for Chapter 11 protection on
June 27, and Frank McCourt agreed in late October to sell the team at auction. In an article called “Selig Bends Rules to
Fit”, Marc Ganis puts it in a nutshell for us: “MLB gave so much power to Selig
that some perceive a system with a lot of subjectivity and playing favorites.” (<a href="http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/selig-bends-rules-to-fit-as-baseball-attempts-to-oust-mccourt-from-dodgers">Bloomberg</a>)<br />
<br />
As far as our Mets go, the Wilpons must be confident, as the recent news out
of Mets camp is that they are seeking a new kind of minority investor. The Mets have been seeking multiple, smaller,
minority investors to purchase chunks of $20 to $30 million to try and replace
the $200 million investment that they shunned from Einhorn. However, the investment comes with
significant strings attached:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon told
Adam Rubin of ESPN New York on Monday that the process of selling minority
blocks was “going very well.” However, since there is no path to ownership,
this latest development is an indication that potential investors need more
incentive than owning a tiny piece of the team for vanity purposes. (<a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/05/report-mets-willing-to-pay-three-percent-interest-to-minority-investors/">Hardball Talk at NBC</a>)
</blockquote>
If there NO PATH TO OWNERSHIP from these investments, why would someone
invest? Well, according to reports, the
Mets are offering 3% interest. That’s
right, 3% interest (or the option of retaining your 2% to 3% stake[9]). The Mets, in exchange for a ton of your
money, without offering you any ability to grow your ownership stake in the team,
will provide you with nothing more than a nominal amount of interest. For reference, a ten-year municipal bond
returns around 2%, tax-free. Yet the
Wilpons believe that someone would prefer to buy what is essentially a bond from
an organization whose financial troubles have been front-and-center in the news
media for a year.<br />
<br />
Ultimately, the story of the Wilpon ascent to power as owners of the New
York Mets franchise has been a long and twisting one. With some shrewd negotiation, some legal
wrangling, and some significant help from his great friend Bud Selig, Fred
Wilpon has taken an investment of a few million dollars and turned it into a
billion-dollar empire, all while Nelson
Doubleday’s equivalent investment of $40.5 million in 1986 returned him only approximately $150
million over 15 years. I'm sure one of my great MBA-possessing friends will correct me, but my back-of-the-envelope calculations indicates a yearly return of around
$7.3 million per year for Doubleday, and in the neighborhood of $32 million per
year for Wilpon.<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>I know this
is long, but if you are interested in some additional reading, it is alleged
that the Madoff-Wilpon relationship extended beyond simply the returns on their
investments. According to an interesting
article by the New York Times in March of this year (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/19/sports/baseball/19madoff.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1">NY Times</a>)it
is alleged in the Madoff Lawsuit that Madoff may have actually loaned the
Wilpons the money they needed when making large capital investments in the
early 2000’s. Or even if the loans never
took place, that a close relationship with a hedge fund such as Madoff’s
allowed the Wilpons the leverage they needed to obtain favorable terms on their
commercial debt. It is an interesting additional twist to all that we already know of the scheme's impact.</i> </blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nDiItb-1_MA/Tsn4F-3ZpMI/AAAAAAAAAGY/W2gBDsgQRCA/s1600/4+cover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nDiItb-1_MA/Tsn4F-3ZpMI/AAAAAAAAAGY/W2gBDsgQRCA/s320/4+cover.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Not everyone is optimistic about the Wilpons’ fortunes moving forward. One of my favorite Mets writers, Howard
Megdal, outlines some of the hard realities:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
[The Mets] <a href="http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/08/2928510/david-einhorns-waiting-game-why-clock-ticking-wilpon-era-mets">still
owe $430 million against the team</a>, with the principal of that loan due in
June 2014, and another $450 million against SNY, with the principal of that
loan due in June 2015 [in addition to the Madoff lawsuit] . . . [further], the
Mets have a revenue-sharing payment due to Major League Baseball by the end of
November of between $15-20 million, and owe around $26 million in their
twice-annual debt payments on Citi Field to the city of New York on December
15. (Capital New York, <a href="http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/11/4062883/mets-shed-low-level-employees-wilpons-cast-about-high-level-help">November 2011</a>).
</blockquote>
However, despite all of the above troubles, I wouldn’t bet on the Wilpons
ceding control of the franchise any time soon.
They were smart enough to gain control of the Mets in the first place,
they have a very good friend in the highest of places, and – if their
negotiations with potential investors are any indication – they are confident
about their financial situation. With
Fred’s long stated goal being turning over the team to his son, Jeff, I expect
that we will not be seeing any wholesale changes for a long time.<br />
<br />
<br />
-------------------------------------------------------------<br />
<b>Brian Mangan is an attorney who lives in New York</b>. He is a lifelong
Mets fan and a former (and hopefully future) Mets season ticket holder. <br />
<br />
-------------------------------------------------------------<br />
[1] It's worth noting that Einhorn, though spurned by the Mets, still
has baseball on his mind. Courtesy of the The Wall Street Journal:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gpf21P7kKLc/Tsn5dg9b0eI/AAAAAAAAAGw/_t_ByoT4LDI/s1600/dynasty.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Gpf21P7kKLc/Tsn5dg9b0eI/AAAAAAAAAGw/_t_ByoT4LDI/s200/dynasty.jpg" width="150" /></a>"Baseball was clearly still on Mr. Einhorn's mind on Monday, when he
joked that he missed watching one of his favorite teams, the Milwaukee Brewers,
take on the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Championship to work on
his presentation on "the other kind of brewers," Green Mountain. "The bulls believe the Green Mountain growth story is still in the
early innings," he said, noting investors' confidence in the company's
surging revenues."</blockquote>
[2] Last year, Mr. Doubleday was ready to sell 80 percent of the team to
Cablevision for $400 million-a deal that could have shielded his children, who
are uninvolved in the Mets’ affairs, from huge estate taxes. But Mr. Wilpon
scuttled the deal, out of a concern that, as a minority partner once again,
there would be no assurance that he would still run the team. (New York Observer, <a href="http://www.observer.com/2000/10/even-during-series-mets-partners-spar-endangering-stadium/">October 30, 2000</a>)<br />
<br />
[3] Source:
<a href="http://articles.nydailynews.com/2002-07-12/sports/18200962_1_nelson-doubleday-fred-wilpon-appraisal-process">Daily News</a> <br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
[4] Two of the people who talked about Wilpon's pending
purchase said Wilpon was expected to pay Doubleday about $200 million and would
give him an additional $25 million if the Mets moved into a new stadium. Times,
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/22/sports/baseball-wilpon-expected-to-buy-doubleday-s-share-of-mets.html">June 22, 2001</a> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
[5] Full access to the article is not available for free. <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/nypost/access/147236251.html?dids=147236251:147236251&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Aug+07%2C+2002&author=Tom+Keegan&pub=New+York+Post&desc=DOUBLEDAY%27S+SUIT+COULD+DOOM+SELIG&pqatl=google">Link</a>. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
[6] Tragically, Mr. Pappas passed away in 2004 at the
age of 42. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
[7] Another of Selig’s contentions is that baseball, aside from
being broke, was a broken system because
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
"During the past decade, Baseball has experienced a
terribly disturbing trend. To put it simply, an increasing number of our Clubs
have become unable to successfully compete for their respective Division
Championships -- thereby making post-season appearances -- let alone
post-season success -- an impossibility." In November 2000, Commissioner Bud Selig solemnly advised
Congress, "At the start of spring training, there no longer exists hope
and faith for the fans of more than half of our 30 clubs."</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
(Congressional testimony, 11/21/00) Unfortunately, that fact is no less true today than when he first stated it. (Chart <a href="http://blog.cleveland.com/datacentral/2009/03/baseball-payroll-performance.pdf">here</a>)</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
[8] There is one entity, aside from MLB itself, over whom no controvery exists
as to whether they are succeeding or failing:
Bud Selig. I did not know this
until I looked up the numbers over at Cot’s Contracts, but over the last twenty
years that he has been Commissioner, Bud Selig has seen his own personal salary
skyrocket. From a lofty and generous
salary of $1 million back in 1993, to an outsized yet perhaps justifiable $2.5
million in 1998, Bud Selig’s salary in the last publicly available season was
$17.5 million dollars. That’s a
number
that, although absurd on its face, also dwarfs those of the
commissioners of
other major sports (link:
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2009/02/20090202/This-Weeks-News/Seligs-Pay-Climbs-Past-$18-Million.aspx).
Baseball
is healthy indeed. (source: <a href="http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/04/major-league-baseball.html">Cot's
Contracts</a>)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-78563087772388935222011-09-30T01:11:00.000-04:002011-09-30T01:11:47.804-04:00An Ideal Change of Scenery: Jason Bay for Carl CrawfordI find that most proposals for 'change of scenery' trades are silly. Most fans of teams think that an opposing club will pay full value for their failed prospect in hopes that they may regain their former luster. Fans clamor for their General Manager to pry struggling players from opposing teams for pennies, when no such deal is on the table. (Think I'm kidding? Take a minute to google a guy like Alex Gordon and see what you come up with... here is an example of how he was hotly pursued last year: <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/alex_gordon/">link</a>)<br />
<br />
However, not all proposals to get a player a change of scenery are bad ones -- in fact, there are plenty of scenarios where getting a player out of town might benefit both parties. However, the price for the team dumping the loser or receiving the once-hyped prospect will be steep.<br />
<br />
Enough beating around the bush. My idea? The Mets trade Jason Bay to the Red Sox for Carl Crawford and a little cash.<br />
<br />
The match could not be better, and I am amazed that it took me so long to see this. Let's start with the basics on the two players.<br />
<br />
As you know, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bayja01.shtml">Jason Bay</a> has struggled as a Met. He posted a .259 average with 6 HR and an 749 OPS in 2010, and followed that up with a .245 average, 12 HR, and a 703 OPS this year, missing time both years with injuries. Factoring in defense and baserunning, Bay was worth an astoundingly terrible 0.7 WAR this year.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfca02.shtml">Carl Crawford</a>'s welcome to Red Sox Nation may have been even worse. Crawford this year put up a .255 average and 11 HR, but drew almost nothing in the way of walks and posted an OPS of 694. Crawford made up some of the gap with superior defense, but also posted an awful 0.4 WAR.<br />
<br />
Jason Bay is owed $16MM in 2012, $16MM in 2013, and has a vesting option for $17MM in 2014 for a total of $49MM over the next three years (or $35 over two years). Crawford is owed the outrageous sum of $122MM over the next six years. Both contracts look like horrible albatrosses.<br />
<br />
Why would these teams make the swap?<br />
<br />
<b>Why The Red Sox Will Do It</b><br />
1. Carl Crawford is a dead man walking in Boston. <b> </b>His horrible season for the Sox, combined with his horrific play on the last hit of Boston's season, seals his fate. The gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands in Boston is audible all the way here in Queens.<br />
<br />
2. Carl Crawford is not a good fit for Fenway. Why on earth did Boston sign this guy in the first place? In addition to the above, and generic concerns that he may not be cut out for a big market, the Sox took a player who derives a TON of his value from his speed and defense and put him in the smallest left field in the entire baseball universe. They added him to a lineup which already had bona-fide top of the order hitters in Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Gonzalez. Crawford is an afterthought.<br />
<br />
3. Jason Bay has already THRIVED in Boston. Maybe Bay is a different player now, but wouldn't it be worth it for them to see if they can roll the dice and at least get some value from Bay, rather than with a guy like Crawford who has been placed in a position where he can do nothing but fail?<br />
<br />
<b>Why The Mets Will Do It</b><br />
1. Jason Bay is a dead man walking in Queens. Back to back terrible seasons. Ending the season on the bench with a "sinus infection," in addition to huge chunks of both seasons. And now the pressure on Bay will become even worse -- all hope for a bounce back is gone, and with back to back losing seasons, the fans will begin to turn on the player with the largest contract.<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b> </b>2. Bay is a terrible fit for Citi Field. The spacious left field, the high fences, and the low-run scoring environment have conspired to make this the worst case scenario for Bay. Granted, Bay did not hit well on the road this season either, but the change of scenery back to Boston may help him.<br />
<br />
3. There is HOPE for Carl Crawford, where for Bay there is little to none. As has been pointed out, Carl Crawford was bad, not terrible, for the Sox since starting the season horrendously. After beginning the start of play on May 23rd batting .215/.249/.298, Crawford hit a poor but improved .280/.313/.474 from then until the end of the season, over 352 plate appearances.<br />
<br />
Bottom Line?<br />
<br />
Both players have enormous contracts and have underperformed greatly. Both players are bad fits for their current clubs, and have worn out their welcomes. And it just so happens that both players play left field.<br />
<br />
<i>"But Brian, why would the Sox trade for a player who is older and just as horrible?"</i> The Red Sox, as we all know, are further along on the success cycle right now. If they had Jason Bay in left field instead of Carl Crawford, they may well have won an additional game and made the postseason this year. With that in mind, taking a chance on Jason Bay, with the shorter contract, with the potential that he may regain some of his prior Boston success (where he posted OPSes of 897 and 921), makes sense. It helps, also, that Bay fits comfortably down in the order as opposed to the speedy Crawford. And remember - Bay will only be 33 next year.<br />
<br />
<i>"But Brian, why would the Mets take on the longer contract for the player who was worse last year?" </i>A few reasons. As I mentioned above, there is hope that Crawford may succeed in Flushing while there is no such hope for Bay. Furthermore, Crawford is a fantastic fit for Citi Field -- he might even be able to play center field and give the Mets the answer they are looking for at that position so they can open up left field for someone like Lucas Duda, Nick Evans, or someone else. Even moreso, Crawford can hit toward the top of the Mets lineup, where his few talents would not be as wasted as they are in Boston. And he'll fit perfectly in the low scoring National League East... not to mention distract a little from the flurry of negativity that will occur when Reyes departs. <br />
<br />
You know you've struck a good deal when people on both sides find it hard to pull the trigger. The one thing that I think the Mets would require to execute this deal is a little financial assistance in years 2014-2017 when Jason Bay's contract is expired and Crawford is still on the books.<br />
<br />
<b>Proposal: Mets trade Jason Bay to the Red Sox for Carl Crawford and $5MM in each of the years 2014-2017. The Mets end up with Crawford on a 6/$107MM deal and the Sox get Bay for 3/$49MM plus a future payment of $15MM.</b><br />
<br />
Each team takes on some risk, each team gets an asset from the other that is more likely to succeed for them than for their current team. Neither team wants anything to do with these guys -- so why not put them in a position where they may be able to succeed.<br />
<br />
I'd love to hear people's thoughts on this: Is this deal a good match? Would one team love this idea and another team hate it? Are there other factors that I haven't considered?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-30757383580401570752011-09-02T03:05:00.000-04:002011-09-02T03:07:36.512-04:00Marginal Value and Why I Don't Care if the Mets Bring Back Reyes<br />
Quickly, who has been the most valuable Met this year?<br />
<br />
Has it been Jose Reyes and his league-leading .336 batting average? Did Carlos Beltran have that distinction while he was here? Has David Wright's surge since coming back put him into the discussion?<br />
<br />
No, no, and no -- if you are talking money, that is.<br />
<br />
When you take into account the salary they are earning, the most valuable Met this season has been none other than Daniel Murphy. No, he does not have the highest WAR of any Met this year -- that distinction goes to Reyes -- but he has provided the most value at the least cost. That makes him the most valuable. <br />
<br />
Below is a table with a majority of the Mets regulars, sorted from the highest WAR per dollar to lowest:<br />
<br />
<br />
<img alt="" border="0" height="262" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5645742810855980738" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--Ea1J80lBag/Tlm1LI5JPsI/AAAAAAAAAEw/5s3soF6dfzc/s640/WAR%2BTable.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center;" width="640" />[I really hope you can read that. I will provide the text version of that chart at the bottom of the post.] <br />
<br />
Anybody with access to baseball-reference or fangraphs or who watches the game can tell you to a reasonable degree of certainty who is the most valuable player on the field. But baseball is a business -- just like the other major sports -- and even though you and I might bleed blue-and-orange and think flags fly forever, for those who make the decisions it all comes down to money. It's not that winning is irrelevant -- but winning almost always depends on having a strong financial position from which you can make moves in the future.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1LHHBpsealU/TmB9Gc5TTmI/AAAAAAAAAE0/w7Yo6RVOeBw/s1600/dynasty.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1LHHBpsealU/TmB9Gc5TTmI/AAAAAAAAAE0/w7Yo6RVOeBw/s320/dynasty.jpg" width="240" /></a></div>
There is a very good (and very mathematically heavy and boring) article over at Baseball Prospectus which takes a look at the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10629">true costs and benefits </a>to signing free agents. In it, the author discusses the pricing of free agents (he calls it "the marginal cost of acquiring a player's contribution on the free-agent market") while also factoring in things such as the length of the deal (ex: a player gives up dollars in the first year for a guarantee of a longer contract at a lower average annual value) and the draft picks lost as compensation. He provides a great example (I have edited out most of the math):<br />
<blockquote>
Which brings us to this next example, where the Tigers surrendered the 19<sup>th</sup> pick in the 2010 draft to sign <span class="playerdef"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=VALVERDE19790724A">Jose Valverde</a></span>
to a two-year deal worth $14 million, which would be worth $22 million
if the Tigers exercise a 2012 club option. Ignoring the draft-pick compensation, Valverde’s contract
would look pretty good ... he would be worth
$18.2 million if you ignore the draft picks. However, the 19<sup>th</sup> pick would ... 3.3 wins over the first six years, which ... is $10.5 million in foregone wins.</blockquote>
If you go to fangraphs, you'll see that at the bottom of each page they have a section for each player entitled "value." In that section, there is listed the players salary, right next to a column which says "dollars." The dollars column roughly amounts to how much a player providing that much value would cost on the free agent market. Jose Reyes, for example, has posted 5.3 WAR so far this season, while the market in baseball generally values 5.3 WAR at a price of $23.9 million dollars. Daniel Murphy, on the other hand, has provided 3.2 WAR which is valued at $14.3 million dollars.<br />
<br />
Jose has been better, but Murphy has provided more bang for his buck.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uGh_8Ktr-B4/TmB9MIX5RFI/AAAAAAAAAE4/i8VjmWFeJu8/s1600/money_stack.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uGh_8Ktr-B4/TmB9MIX5RFI/AAAAAAAAAE4/i8VjmWFeJu8/s320/money_stack.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
So herein lies the problem: once Jose Reyes - or any player - becomes eligible to test the free agent market, they are going to find someone to pay them what they are worth. Or as is often the case, more than they are worth. At that point, unless there is some kind of hometown discount being provided, that player is no more or less useful to your team than any other. In fact, he may be LESS useful to your team specifically because you owned him to begin with -- by not allowing him to leave, you fail to get draft pick compensation that you would otherwise have.<br />
<br />
For example, if the Mets were confronted with the ability to sign Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez, as free agents this winter, my only preference would become who would provide the better DEAL for our team. I love Reyes, he is my favorite player. But I'd rather see my team win without Reyes than lose with him.[1]<br />
<br />
Back in 2005, when the Mets were on the precipice of their ill-fated dynasty, the world belonged to them. In David Wright and Jose Reyes, the Mets had lucked into two all-star position players at almost exactly the same time. Between 2006 and 2008, Reyes posted 6.1, 5.8, and 6.4 WAR. In the same time span, Wright posted 5.2, 8.9, and 7.1 WAR. All of those were All-Star campaigns, and in the case of Wright, what had a good argument as an MVP season.<br />
But why did the Mets win so many games from 2006-2008? It wasn't just because they had Wright and Reyes -- they still have Wright and Reyes. It was because in 2006, Wright and Reyes made a COMBINED salary of less than a million dollars. In 2007, they earned around $4.5 million dollars. In 2008, they raked in less than ten million dollars. As a whole, they earned approximately $15 million dollars while providing the Mets with value equivalent to what they would have to pay a free agent approximately $163 million dollars for. That's $150 million dollars of profit.<br />
<br />
So what did the Mets do when they had two, young, cost-controlled mega-stars? They used the extra money that they had to PAY free agents. They brought in Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado, and Billy Wagner and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2007.shtml">so many others</a>. And for that stretch of time, the Mets were very, very good. But when the Mets failed to win it all, it wasn't just a sadness that could be remedied next year -- it was the end of an era. The window was, and remains, closed, for the Wright-Reyes Mets to be anything special.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lEsokmqo1xk/TmB9SNC6ipI/AAAAAAAAAE8/6X1XWc5DaOg/s1600/red+ass.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lEsokmqo1xk/TmB9SNC6ipI/AAAAAAAAAE8/6X1XWc5DaOg/s1600/red+ass.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
Take an example of another very good team, last year's Texas Rangers. They knew that they had a good, cheap nucleus of talent in Josh Hamilton ($5.5M), Ian Kinsler ($4.2M), Nelson Cruz ($440K), and others. They could afford to pay free agent money to players that they thought would push them over the top -- like Vladimir Guerrero. <br />
<br />
Even big market teams like the Red Sox cannot win without cost-controlled, home grown stars. The Red Sox have players like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard and Jon Lester under cost control -- so they could trade for Adrian Gonzalez and give him a lucrative contract extension, and they could pick up David Ortiz' contract option, and they could afford to make moves even with John Lackey's contract burdening them.<br />
<br />
As for us, with Reyes and Wright reaching the point in their careers where they need to be paid what they are worth, it doesn't really matter if they are Mets or not-- outside of our weak, silly, baseball-fan hearts. They will still be good players, but they will be no better for us than any other roll of the dice that we make on the free agent market. Can a team built around a Wright and Reyes who are being paid market value still win? Of course they can. But the deck is no longer stacked in our favor.<br />
<br />
For the next few years, the Mets are going to have to stand by and watch young, practically free superstars like Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Domonic Brown, Bryce Harper, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Antonio Bastardo, Julio Teheran, Jonny Venters and a host of others provide All-Star if not superstar value for our rivals. The question is -- do the Mets have reinforcements? Can the Mets reload?<br />
<br />
All of this, finally, brings us back to the table that we posted at the beginning of this article. Although the Mets don't have any surefire stud prospects waiting in the wings to be our next Wright or Reyes, the Mets certainly do have a lot of cheap players who can provide value in 2012 and beyond. You don't have to be a stats nerd or sabermatrician to understand that having cheap players who can step into roles on a winning club has value. You just may be surprised to learn how much.<br />
<br />
Another way of looking at the above table is to look at the value provided beyond the salary they were paid.[2] Sorting this way, Murphy is again the most valuable Met. In third, however, is Jose Reyes, who has provided over $11 million in surplus value despite earning $11 million on this year's contract. All in all, the Mets have 12 players who have provided more than $2 million in surplus value to the team, and even better, all of whom (except Chris Capuano and Reyes) remain under team control next year.<br />
<br />
Add to these names (Murphy, Niese, Tejada, Davis, Dickey, Turner, Duda, Thole, Pagan, Parnell) the list of players we discussed last week in our Organization Report, and you've got yourself an excellent core of players to build around.<br />
<br />
Would I like the Mets to resign Reyes? Absolutely. Would the Mets be a better team on the field for doing so? Absolutely -- there is no player out there who can replace the value of a stud, in his prime, All-Star shortstop. Will it make the Mets better suited financially in the future to compete with the other teams in the NL East? Hard to say.<br />
<br />
-----------------<br />
[1] <br />
The fangraphs values, and the generally accepted practice of
attaching a dollar value to the WAR provided by a free agent, are
misleading in that relative to the entire pool of players playing major
league baseball, all free agents are overpaid. As the salaries for
players with less major league service time are strictly fixed by the
rules and by arbitration, they can only wait for their free agent
payday. <br />
<br />
<br />
[2]<br />
The Top 12 Mets in providing value beyond their salary:<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 305px;"><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 19pt;" width="25"><br /></td><td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><br /></td><td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><br /></td><td class="xl66" style="width: 59pt;" width="78"><br /></td><td class="xl65" style="width: 56pt;" width="74"><br /></td></tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width: 308px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 914; mso-width-source: userset; width: 19pt;" width="25"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 5302; mso-width-source: userset; width: 109pt;" width="145"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2706; mso-width-source: userset; width: 56pt;" width="74"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 19pt;" width="25"><br /></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><br /></td>
<td style="width: 109pt;" width="145">Value Beyond Salary</td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 56pt;" width="74">WAR per $</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">IF</td>
<td>Murphy</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$13,562,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">7.58</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SP</td>
<td>Niese</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$11,784,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">6.19</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">IF</td>
<td>Reyes</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$11,724,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">0.47</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">IF</td>
<td>Tejada</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$5,718,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">3.50</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">IF</td>
<td>Davis</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$5,686,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">3.24</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SP</td>
<td>Dickey</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$5,179,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">0.76</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">SP</td>
<td>Capuano</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$5,055,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">1.00</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">IF</td>
<td>Turner</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$3,970,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">2.50</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">OF</td>
<td>Duda</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$3,956,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">2.42</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">IF</td>
<td>Thole</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$3,513,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">2.14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">OF</td>
<td>Pagan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$2,618,000.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">0.40</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">RP</td>
<td>Parnell</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">$2,188,500.00</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">1.38</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-79867457830343934532011-08-22T20:28:00.017-04:002011-08-26T02:47:35.161-04:00The Kids Are Alright
<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XtnFjUvDySs/TldA1FepZvI/AAAAAAAAAEg/tSLiDorZxh0/s1600/wrightreyes4.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 226px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XtnFjUvDySs/TldA1FepZvI/AAAAAAAAAEg/tSLiDorZxh0/s320/wrightreyes4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5645051938680170226" /></a>
<br />One of the best -- and also most frustrating -- things about baseball, is that over time, things always end up like they should. In that way, baseball is like life.
<br />
<br />Over the course of 162 grueling games, the best teams will win, the <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Albert Pujols</a></strong>es will break out of their slumps, the and the <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turneju01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Justin Turners</a></strong> will no longer hit .500 with runners in scoring position. It is not like football, where you only need to get through 16 games and can find a Maurice Jones-Drew out of nowhere. It's not like basketball or hockey where half the teams make the postseason. In baseball, six months will usually allow the best teams to prevail and for just enough time for magical fairy dust to wear off.
<br />
<br />This is particularly poignant at this moment, as our Mets crash and burn in spectacular fashion (though personally I prefer this scenario to a late season collapse).
<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aYB6yc7MbxQ/Tlc_dchRUMI/AAAAAAAAAEI/xUXMvP4aymo/s1600/280px-6TH_Dillon_Gee.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 280px; height: 280px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aYB6yc7MbxQ/Tlc_dchRUMI/AAAAAAAAAEI/xUXMvP4aymo/s320/280px-6TH_Dillon_Gee.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5645050433036701890" /></a>
<br />
<br />The other night, we all watched <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/geedi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Dillon Gee</a></strong> struggle epically in his start against the Phillies. Gee was a great story for a while, but for those of us who were more than causal observers, we knew that he wasn't just an extraordinary kind of "gamer" or that he hadn't figured out "how to win" better than the next major league pitcher. Ultimately, you knew that he was going to gravitate toward his actual talent level. Perhaps, Gee will be quite good in the majors. Perhaps Gee has grown over time to become a better pitcher than he was in the minor leagues. But right now, he's sporting a 4.37 ERA, which is a lot closer to what you'd expect for Gee than the 3.32 ERA he had on July 1st. Most likely, he will become, to <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_N1OjGhIFc">paraphrase Dennis Green</a>, "who we thought he was."
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<br />The reason for this lengthy introduction is because as the Mets play out the string here in late August and September, most fans, myself included, begin to have their thoughts turn to the 2012 season. Thoughts of stars returning from injuries, discussions about free agents, and analysis of minor league prospects will ensue as we assess the strengths and weaknesses of our organization. We here at Fonzie Forever have always consistently stressed that the most important thing that an organization needs to do before making a plan for the next year is to make an honest assessment of there they are TODAY.
<br />As an example, we all remember the Winter and Spring before the 2010 season. For a few months, the Mets maintained the status quo -- they acted for months as if they thought they had a shot to make the playoffs in 2010 and that all they needed to do was patch the holes. They signed <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bayja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jason Bay</a></strong> to a large, lucrative contract -- one which I at the time predicted would <a href="http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2009/12/jason-bay-is-colossal-mistake-how-bay.html">cost Omar Minaya his job</a>. They signed or acquired players such as <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/coraal01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Alex Cora</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desseel01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Elmer Dessens</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blanche01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Henry Blanco</a></strong>, Gary Mathews Jr., <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/catalfr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Frank Catalanotto</a></strong>, and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barajro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Rod Barajas</a></strong>. Those players were, for the most part, players that you might acquire if you THINK you can contend and you need to fill out your bench, bullpen, or Triple-A roster. However, for the 2010 Mets, each and every one of those acquisitions ranged from mistake to disaster. The Mets behavior that offseason wasn't anchored in reality at all, and we here at Fonzie Forever said it every step of the way:
<br /><blockquote>With the health of <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Carlos Beltran</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Johan Santana</a></strong>, and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=reyesjo01,reyes-016jos,reyes-004jos,reyes-017jos,reyesjo02&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jose Reyes</a></strong> all uncertain, there was no way a coherent plan could have been developed for the 2010 season. Under any set of circumstances, they were unlikely to succeed. Even if Santana, Beltran, and Reyes all came back strong, the Mets would also need <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">David Wright</a></strong> to return to form, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pelfrmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Mike Pelfrey</a></strong> to continue his growth, and for other players to step up.</blockquote>
<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o1knX-Qf4Es/TldAc57h50I/AAAAAAAAAEQ/SRFHkuQJg44/s1600/6a0115709f071f970b013485a44ffd970c-400wi.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 180px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o1knX-Qf4Es/TldAc57h50I/AAAAAAAAAEQ/SRFHkuQJg44/s320/6a0115709f071f970b013485a44ffd970c-400wi.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5645051523263227714" /></a>
<br />The Mets, as we've said here before, were very fortunate in 2010. Out of nowhere, we discovered a quality major league center fielder in <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paganan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Angel Pagan</a></strong>; a high quality starter in RA Dickey; David Wright returned to form as an all-star caliber third baseman; <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisik02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ike Davis</a></strong> had a wildly successful rookie year; and Carlos Beltran returned from his surgery and showed that he had a chance to contribute in 2011.
<br />
<br />The 2011 edition of our Mets has been similarly successful, though their successes have been subtle, or modest, or in far away cities such as Binghamton or Port St. Lucie. Leaving aside any discussion of Madoff and the Wilpon's financial trouble -- about which no independent blogger can truly say make any predictions -- the Mets organization as a whole is in a much stronger place today than it was at this time last season.
<br />
<br />Obviously, the major league roster now is not as talented as the one we fielded in April -- Davis and Reyes are hurt, while Beltran and K-Rod have been traded -- and not every prospect has advanced his standing. However, from the low minors to the major leagues, there have been a great deal of successes.
<br />
<br />Below, I am going to take a look at some of the players who have made significant gains or significantly improved their stock in the last year. Undoubtedly, some of these names will be familiar to casual fans -- and others only to statheads. For space reasons, I'm not going to be able to go over everyone in the low minors, but limit myself to those players already on the major league roster or in the higher minor leagues.
<br />
<br />I am proud to report that, for the first time in a while, I am very happy about the strength of the organization in general. An organization does not need to consistently produce super stars in order to be useful -- and in fact, in New York, it is even less important that they do -- because the development of useful, cheap, cost-controlled young players allows you the financial flexibility to make moves elsewhere. Now, on to the players:
<br />
<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Stock Up</span>
<br />
<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dudalu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Lucas Duda</a></strong>: You can count me as one of the many observers who did not think that Duda would amount to too much in the majors. Before 2010, Duda was a defensively-challenged corner outfielder who at the age of 23 posted an 808 OPS in Double-A. Then, something clicked. People have speculated that Duda had gotten over an injury, but since the bell rung in 2010 -- over 800 at-bats later -- he's been a very, very good hitter. He put up a 999 OPS in Triple-A last year, a 1011 OPS in Triple-A this year, and has hit .275/.345/.464 in the majors this year. In the last 45 games -- a decent proxy for since he's gotten regular playing time -- he's hit .300/.376/.531, which is outstanding.
<br />
<br />Nobody is going to project Duda to post a 900 OPS over the course of a full season, but it's pretty clear now that Duda can hit, and that I was wrong about him. It remains to be seen whether Duda's glove will be good enough for the outfield (fangraphs has his career UZR/150 in the outfield at an atrocious -32.9 over a small sample size), but it is clear that Duda's stock is WAY WAY up and that he is a major leaguer.
<br />
<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=nieuwe001kir">Kirk Nieuwenhuis</a></strong>: Another player who took his enormous strides of 2010 and solidified them in 2011 was Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Considered an overachiever by many, Kirk was not highly regarded even after posting an 847 OPS in Double-A at the age of 22. Scouting Book called him a <a href="http://www.scoutingbook.com/players/p2759">fourth outfielder</a>, while Keith Law, who strongly weighs scouting and tools in his ranking, did not place Kirk in his Mets Top 10 before the 2010 season.
<br />
<br />The Captain, however, improved on his great 2010 season with a stellar 2011 season before going down with an injury. In 53 games, he batted .298/.403/.505 -- a batting line that will play anywhere, but is fabulous for a 23 year old center fielder. He underwent labrum surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in midseason, and there are substantial questions about how he will recover, but he has shown that, if healthy, he has a bright future.
<br />
<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The Big Three Pitching Prospects -- </span><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=harvey001mat">Matt Harvey</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=famili001jeu">Jeurys Familia</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=wheele001zac">Zack Wheeler</a></strong>: Much virtual ink has been spilled already on these three, so I will be brief, but suffice to say that each of these three have taken big steps forward this year. All three have good "stuff" according to scouts, and have backed it up with their performance on the field.
<br />
<br />Harvey, my favorite of the three, has struck out 59 batters in 51 innings in Double-A, including 7 shutout innings yesterday. He's been a little unlucky with balls in play, but with a strikeout to walk ratio of 59-15, he is having one of the best pitching prospect seasons I've seen. Familia may have been even better, with 63 strikeouts in 48 innings and an 11 inning shutout streak of his own in Double-A. Finally, Wheeler, the project of the three, is also striking out more than a batter per inning for the Single-A St. Lucie Mets. Toby Hyde was <a href="http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/notes-from-an-fsl-day-sunday-zack-wheeler-was-impressive/">very impressed</a> with his last start:
<br /><blockquote>His fastball sat 94-96 mph with a few 93 mixed in later and one 97 as well early. He showed both the ability to throw it down with run and sink and throw it shoulder-height to change batters’ eye-level and produce swings and misses. Early on, his curveball was 77 mph with bite, by the end of his outing he was throwing it in the low 80s. It was nasty.</blockquote>I try not to engage in hyperbole, but this is the best crop of Mets pitching prospects that I can recall seeing. All of them, in my opinion, compare favorably to Pelfrey (who, in his own right, was an impressive minor leaguer) and even to Jon Niese (who I was a big fan of from even the beginning).
<br />
<br />Josh Satin: Although he doesn't profile to be an impact player any time soon, Satin has transformed himself from a non-factor into a player who can contribute on a major league team. After a relatively unremarkable minor league career, where he posted good-not-great numbers at each minor league level while being a little old for each level, Satin has exploded at the dish this year. He posted a 962 OPS at Double-A before his promotion to Triple-A. While with Buffalo, he's put up a respectable OPS of 808. That mark includes a .392 on-base percentage.
<br />
<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=lutz--001zac">Zach Lutz</a></strong>: Similarly, organizational soldier Lutz made it to Triple-A and has posted an OPS of 933. It was just two seasons ago that Lutz was a non-factor, posting an 822 OPS in High-A. He's been quite good in Buffalo this year, and may find a way to be a useful major leaguer.
<br />
<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=schwin001chr">Chris Schwinden</a></strong>: Although Schwinden is not as good as his stats would indicate this season, he's taken a big step forward this season for Triple-A Buffalo. Schwinden last season posted a 5.56 ERA in Double-A, and the year before spent the majority of the season in Low-A Savannah. This year, however, Schwinden has handled his promotion to Triple-A with aplomb, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings -- all of which are career bests. The former 22nd Round draft pick may make good.
<br />
<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=valdes001jor">Jordany Valdespin</a></strong>: The 23 year old Valdespin was featured here <a href="http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2010/02/keep-eye-on-jordany-valdespin.html">a year and a half ago</a> where we said:
<br /><blockquote>There are a lot of reasons to like Valdespin. Obviously, his Savannah performance was good. More importantly, being rated the "best athlete" in the system...ahead of the likes of <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=flores003wil">Wilmer Flores</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=marte-001jef">Jefry Marte</a></strong>, Kirk Nieuwenheis and others says a lot about his tools...In addition, he had a very strong Winter League performance...All of these things point to a bright future for Jordany. Although it could be seen as an indictment of his talent that he has not yet reached High-A ball entering his age 22 season, his physical abilities and variety of talents (speed and defense) make him an intriguing prospect.</blockquote>Jordany is a project, but this year has taken a huge stride forward. After ending the 2010 season with a poor 698 OPS between Single-A and Double-A, he hit a robust .297/.341/.483 for Double-A Binghamton earlier this year. I think that the talk of Valdespin as a potential major leaguer next season is premature, but he is still only 23 and may still have room to grow.
<br />
<br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=havens001ree">Reese Havens</a></strong>: Back in 2009, when Reese Havens and Ike Davis were coming off their first full seasons in the minor leagues, we here at Fonzie Forever could not understand why Davis was being held in higher regard than Havens. We <a href="http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2010/01/why-reese-havens-is-better-prospect.html">pointed out here </a>that they were picked only four selections apart in the 2008 draft, both had hit well in the minors, and Havens had the positional adjustment advantage (second base versus first base). However, Havens has been plagued by injuries since then, and his stock -- through early this year -- had dropped substantially.
<br />
<br />However, I am glad to report that Havens has come back strong in the last two months, and has upped his batting line in Double-A to .287/.370/.420. Even better, he's gained momentum as the year has gone on, posting a line of .323/.402/.430 since the All-Star Break. Granted, he will have to prove that his injury problems will not derail his once promising career, but Havens stock has certainly risen since April. He's a second baseman capable of posting an OPS of 800 or better, and those are exceedingly rare.
<br />
<br />Justin Turner: Although by no stretch would I ever want Justin Turner starting on my contending team, my man @redturn2 has finally gotten the opportunity to show that he deserves to be in the major leagues. Turner hasn't hit a lick since his third week in the majors and his OPS is now down to 678 -- however, he plays decent defense and is fun to be around and can be a piece on a winner. <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2011_zips_projections_-_new_york_mets/">ZiPS projected Turner </a>for a 697 OPS in preseason, which is on the money as usual, but that is fine for organizational depth.
<br />
<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Stock Down</span>
<br />
<br />As I mentioned, not everyone in the Mets organization has been all puppies and rainbows in 2011. It's been a tough year for <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=martife02,martin002fer&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Fernando Martinez</a></strong>, while we watched <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mejiaje01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jenrry Mejia</a></strong> undergo Tommy John surgery. Stephen Matz, the Mets first pick (second round) of the 2009 draft has <a href="http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2011/07/steve-matz-update-matt-harvey-zack.html">had some soreness </a>in his recovery from his own Tommy John. I still believe that these players have a chance to contribute (particularly Mejia, who observers believe can still be a big impact pitcher) but their fortunes have dimmed somewhat since this time last year.
<br />
<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">But in general?</span>
<br />
<br />A hallmark of a good organization is not just in the superstars at the major league level or super prospects in the minors, but in the depth of the rosters at each level. If you trade a Beltran, do you have a Duda to fill in? If Davis gets hurt, do you have a <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphda08.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Daniel Murphy</a></strong> to take his space or do you need to pay a <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacobmi02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Mike Jacobs</a></strong>?
<br />
<br />In that sense, it's been a very, very strong year for the organization. Aside from the one big question mark surrounding the Mets' financial situation, this is a team that could probably start making some noise as early as next year. Provided that the majority of players come back reasonably healthy, this is what the Mets squad could look like next year without a single addition from free agency.
<br />
<br />1B Davis
<br />2B Murphy
<br />SS Reyes
<br />3B Wright
<br />LF Bay
<br />CF Pagan
<br />RF Duda
<br />C Thole/Paulino
<br />
<br />SP Santana, Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Capuano
<br />RP Parnell, Beato, ...
<br />
<br />The team as constituted above is not going to win the National League East. The Mets still have significant weaknesses when it comes to the starting rotation and the bullpen, and the Jason Bay contract will haunt the organization for another two years, but given average health that team will not be terrible. And more importantly, it's not constituted so poorly that it makes me want to run to the Mets offices at Citi Field and say "Are you mad?! Trade everything that's not nailed down!! You guys are crazy for keeping up this charade!"
<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lS8le4znvrs/TldBL2w81RI/AAAAAAAAAEo/m7sVvdhBLQI/s1600/450x364-alg_mets_niese.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 259px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lS8le4znvrs/TldBL2w81RI/AAAAAAAAAEo/m7sVvdhBLQI/s320/450x364-alg_mets_niese.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5645052329867400466" /></a>
<br />Generally speaking, the players mentioned above have shown that the Mets are going to be less likely to suffer should they be befallen by a major injury. The days of Alex Cora and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cairomi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Miguel Cairo</a></strong> seem to be past, for now. And even better, the above guys, if we need them to play, are going to be making the minimum salary. That is why Angel Pagan and RA Dickey have been the most valuable Mets <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2918&position=OF">over the last couple of years </a>-- they are providing value and barely costing anything.
<br />
<br />These kids are alright. Luckily, all the trading of stars and doom and gloom at the major league level hasn't done anything to dampen the future prospects of our minor leaguers. Granted, reinforcements would have been nice in 2009, or 2008, but once again, that's part of the beauty of baseball.
<br />
<br />Prospects, or major leaguers, or injuries, or luck, don't develop because you NEED them to at that moment. That's one of the beautiful things about baseball. Tragically, Daniel Murphy got injured again this year, just when we needed him. The Mets made silly moves in advance of 2010 because they thought they needed to compete, and damn the fact that the roster just wasn't good enough at that point. <a href="http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2010/11/mets-and-success-cycle.html">Where are we on the success cycle</a>?
<br />
<br />These kids are alright. The ones above -- and many others, who I did not get a chance to mention -- had a good year this year. I am excited to watch our boys play out the string here in late August and September, and hopefully, they'll be here contributing to the major league team very soon.
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<br />But not because we need them to. Because they are ready.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-71022767944140965122011-08-02T00:33:00.009-04:002011-08-02T01:20:48.986-04:00Is Zack Wheeler Overrated?On my way to bed tonight, I took a quick look over at Metsblog to see is there were any interesting stories I missed today while in the midst of work and riveting debt-ceiling talk. Turns out that this afternoon they <a href="http://www.metsblog.com/2011/08/01/nimmo-and-mets-not-close-to-having-anything-done/">posted a link </a>to the new Baseball America Top 10 Prospects list, which considers the state of the farm system as it is today post-trade and post-draft. Here's the list:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGrahttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifcefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BEstGKLsgKI/Tjd_Allab0I/AAAAAAAAAEA/Ui28moc3mfk/s1600/prospect%2Blist.png"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 444px; height: 300px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BEstGKLsgKI/Tjd_Allab0I/AAAAAAAAAEA/Ui28moc3mfk/s320/prospect%2Blist.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5636113106743226178" /></a><br /><br /><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=wheele001zac">Zack Wheeler</a></strong> ascends to the top spot on the list, surpassing even <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=harvey001mat">Matt Harvey</a></strong>, the Mets highly-touted draft pick from last season. And for what reason, you may ask? Well, apparently, Wheeler has a really high ceiling. People like him a lot. Some of the good stuff?<br /><br />--<a href="http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/05/23/zack-wheeler-scouting-report">Project Prospect said </a>that his curveball "has elite, two-plane break and is a no-doubt swing-and-miss offering." <br />--Baseball America in 2011 <a href="http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=638055">ranked him </a>as the Giants #2 prospect and said that he "threw an easy 94-97 mph fastball" and called his changeup "functional."<br />--Here is a clip of Wheeler pitching this season which has been linked a few times, but may be worth another look:<br /><br /><iframe width="425" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rrdzSq1aTo0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br /><br />But so far, none of this has translated to professional success for young Mr. Wheeler. So far this year, despite a decent enough 3.99 ERA, he has posted a 1.37 WHIP and walked 4.8 batters per nine innings for High Class-A San Jose in the California League. He's striking out a lot of batters as well, with 10.0 K/9, but for reference, he's walking the same amount of batters per nine innings as <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezol01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Oliver Perez</a></strong> did in 2008, when he was making everybody into a mental patient. His 3.99 ERA also checks in as the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=5014a6aa">fourth highest ERA</a> among regular starters on that team although, once again, his strikeout rate is elite.<br /><br />But at this point, all the scouting accolades have not manifested in his actual pitching. And for those of you who would point to the fact that being drafted by the Giants portends success, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Tim Lincecum</a></strong> dominated at San Jose (1.95 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) as did <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainma01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Matt Cain</a></strong> (1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), as did <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Madison Bumgarner</a></strong> (1.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). All those pitchers were kept, while Wheeler was traded.<br /><br />Does Wheeler stand a chance to be great? Sure, I hope so. And of course, I am no professional scout. However, you heard a number of similarly glowing things about other Mets farmhands, yet the hype machine doesn't care about them because they were not involved in a big trade.<br /><br />How about Matt Harvey? His fastball "sits in the 92-96 mph range and touches 98," similar to Wheeler (<a href="http://rule4report.com/2010/05/21/extended-scouting-report-matt-harvey-rhp-north-carolina/">link</a>). He's 6-foot-4 with a "power curve" and flashes of above average breaking stuff. Just as importantly, Harvey dominated at High Class-A this season when Wheeler struggled, posting a 2.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 10.9 K/9 and only 2.8 BB/9. Harvey has struggled somewhat in Double-A, but his fantastic strikeout to walk ratio has remained the same and he is only 29 innings into his stay there. So far, Harvey has been a tremendous success.<br /><br />How about <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=famili001jeu">Jeurys Familia</a></strong>, who was a forgotten man after his struggles in 2010? He is seven months older than Wheeler, but he is putting up almost identical stats to Wheeler but is doing so in Double-A rather than Single-A. Familia has put up a 3.38 ERA, which is good, but his secondary stuff is a little rougher, with a 1.36 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9. When he was in High Class-A to begin the year, he dominated with a 1.49 ERA and a strikeout per inning.<br /><br />Here is a clip of Jeurys Familia striking out ten batters in a minor league start on June 18th of this year.<br /><br /><iframe width="560" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/AzFq8L5oouA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br /><br />I don't mean to lose you with all the numbers, but Familia, who also throws 92-96 with the fastball (<a href="http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/scouting-notes-on-jeurys-familia/">link</a>) has been projected by some as a "bullpen guy" while Wheeler has been touted as a potential ace. I certainly hope that Wheeler does well, but until he shows me something in the minor leagues, or until the scouting reports of his actual pitches improves -- rather than forecasts of future improvement -- I don't think he deserves the #1 spot in any Mets prospect ranking.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-16323920346615089652011-07-29T00:41:00.005-04:002011-07-29T01:07:28.451-04:00Daniel Murphy is KILLING the BaseballHey everyone.<br /><br />Can we talk <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphda08.shtml">Daniel Murphy</a> for a second? I for one cannot believe that the tear he's been on recently has gotten such little press. I realize that Reyes was having an MVP-caliber season, and that trading Beltran is a huge story -- but almost nobody in baseball has been as good as Daniel Murphy in the last couple of months.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VJEwx714JeA/TjI_siH7JNI/AAAAAAAAAD4/9lIGiDkerjc/s1600/daniel-murphy-540x385.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 228px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VJEwx714JeA/TjI_siH7JNI/AAAAAAAAAD4/9lIGiDkerjc/s320/daniel-murphy-540x385.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5634636118100747474" /></a>For the year, Murphy is hitting .319/.360/.458. That's pretty good. And stop, for a moment, and consider JUST how good that is. As it is, he's THIRD in the National League batting race. Did you know that? He's sandwiched between <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry01,braunry02&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Ryan Braun</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Joey Votto</a></strong>. <br /><br />In the year of the pitcher, part deux, his 818 OPS is good for an OPS+ mark of 128, which is phenomenal. To put that in perspective, his 871 OPS in 2008 was only good for an OPS+ of 129 -- essentially equivalent. So even when viewing the season as a whole, he's had a truly awesome season thus far.<br /><br />But when you take a look at his numbers from the middle of May onward, you will be stunned by how good he's been.<br /><br />For the last 30 days, Daniel Murphy is hitting .373/.400/.573 for an OPS of 973. NINE-SEVENTY-THREE. Think that's just a hot month? It's not. In the last 60 days, Murphy has hit .358/.383/.491 for an OPS of 873. He hit .349 that month. He's been this hot since two weeks after we found out Osama Bin Laden had been killed. South Sudan wasn't a country yet. We still had a Space Program. Kate Middleton had been married less than a month. He's been doing this day in and day out for a while.<br /><br />He's been getting better. And it's for such a period of time now that you have to take a step back and really take it seriously. This isn't a good two week stretch -- this is an enormous sample. In his last 240 at bats, Daniel Murphy has hit like Wade Boggs in his prime. Want to know what the full season pace is for that kind of performance?<br /><br />232 hits, 56 doubles, 93 RBI, 54 strikeouts, .363/.390/.504<br /><br />Obviously, Daniel Murphy is not Wade Boggs. In addition, Murphy has been aided by somewhat fortuitous luck on balls in play, with a BABIP of .384. But at this point I think it's appropriate to step back and actually ask: How good is Daniel Murphy? <br /><br />Even if you were to shave off a generous amount of luck from his batting line -- say his BABIP is around .330 rather than .380 -- he'd still be hitting .313/.340/.454 over this period of time. <br /><br />Oh -- and one more thing that I almost forgot to mention. His last 14 games? They have been his best. Not only has he posted an OPS of 1039 in those games while hitting .390, but in those last 59 at bats, Murphy has been pretty hard to strike out. Want to guess how many strikeouts he's had in those last 59 at bats?<br /><br />a) 10 strikeouts <br />b) 8 strikeouts<br />c) 6 strikeouts<br /><br />Ready for the answer? The correct answer is ONE strikeout. Daniel Murphy in the last two weeks has ten doubles and one strikeout.<br /><br />The point of this exercise is not to say that I think Daniel Murphy is going to hit .400 for the rest of his career. I don't think that tomorrow he is going to hit 40 home runs or win a gold glove at second base. But I think it is long past due for the fans to acknowledge his incredible run of success -- and to contemplate what it might mean for the future.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-8774491221478679342011-06-21T00:14:00.005-04:002011-06-21T01:07:20.905-04:00Baseball's Foolish Realignment PlanI know I'm late to the party on this one, but as they say, better late than never, right? I'd like to give a brief treatment to the potential realignment plan that was first reported by Buster Olney and debated as of late. I know that many others have written longer, and better, about this idea, but I'd like to give it the once-over myself.<br /><br />The idea, for anyone who doesn't know, would be to have 15 teams in the American and National Leagues, to eliminate divisions, and to simply have the teams with the five best records make the playoffs. I for one think this would be a huge mistake.<br /><br />First, it is important to note that aside from Buster Olney, several very well-respected baseball writers have come out in favor of the realignmnent plan. Dave Cameron and Jeff Passan, in particular, do excellent and thoughtful work, and are both strongly in favor of the plan. This means that, despite being originally brought to light by Olney, that this idea must have some credence.<br /><br />Cameron, in particular, feels that <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/expanding-mlb-playoffs-focus-on-fairness/">the proposed plan makes for a fairer sport</a>. He points out the disparity between the four-team AL West and the six-team NL Central, and also the fundamental disadvantage that the rest of the AL East has when faced with the Yankee and Red Sox behemoths. Essentially, Cameron concludes that "While I’ve been trained to believe that nearly every “improvement” MLB suggests is probably a bad idea, this actually seems like a pretty fantastic idea to me, in large part due to my desire to see increased fairness in the sport."<br /><br />Fairness. Fairness? For those in favor of realignment, fairness really does seem to be the main sticking point. And who could disagree? I think we all should hope for a system where the best teams make the playoffs, where all fan bases can have the opportunity to root for a winner, and no team need be structurally disadvantaged. However, I don't think that this drastic realignment plan truly addresses these issues -- and if it did, the downsides far outweigh the advantages.<br /><br />For the sake of brevity, I'll present the following reasons in list format:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">1. If you're concerned about the AL West and NL Central being imbalanced -- which I have been for a decade -- why not just move a team? </span> <br /><br />Let the Astros, or whomever, go to the AL West. Then, you've got equal divisions everywhere. Will there be the "constant interleague" problem? Sure. But it's no more or less than with the other plan.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">2. Getting rid of division races would be terrible for the regular season, and for the sport in general. </span><br /><br />Watching division races down the stretch is the best thing about baseball. Would you rather watch the Mets and Phillies battle head to head down the stretch, or watch the Marlins and Padres jockey for the fifth and final playoff spot?<br /><br />I think we've all seen what it's like when a sport has most of its field battling it out in a vague homogeneous mix. In hockey, the regular season is practically irrelevant. It's the same in basketball. In those sports, all the top teams get to coast to the finish while a few battle it out for the last few playoff spots. <br /><br />Take, for instance, the National League in 2007. Down the stretch, we were treated to an incredible division race in the NL East ... I need not remind any of you what happened, but it was incredibly exciting and memorable for all of baseball. In the proposed realignment plan, that never happens. The Mets make the playoffs without any dramatics at all.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">3. This doesn't solve the problem of competitive imbalance.</span><br /><br />What baseball should be striving for is a good competitive balance, and an environment where every team can truly compete. They shouldn't be realigning the sport in order to provide a wimpy excuse where they can say "Hey, there were five playoff spots and you didn't make it! You have nobody to blame but yourself."<br /><br />Would realignment in any season have helped the Pirates or Royals make the playoffs? Are we really so hung up on the Rays and Red Sox that the entire sport has to have a detrimental make-over? We've already got a wild card -- if the advantage that the Yankees and Red Sox have is, in fact, so steep to the point when it ruins the game, why not address it substantively rather than passive-aggressively?<br /><br />This realignment plan sounds to me like MLB is conceding that the Yankees and Red Sox will make the playoffs every year, and they need to figure out a way to make it seem fair for the other teams to fight for the scraps. That, to me, is the real problem.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">4. What is truly fair? And should the "best teams" making the playoffs even be a concern? And even if the teams with the five best balanced records made the playoffs, would that make them the best?</span><br /><br />Ultimately, we all agree that there should be fairness in the sport. But I believe that should be as a result of policy and rule changes to the competition side, not the playoff method. <br /><br />Was it fair for the Mets to miss the playoffs in 2007 while the Cubs made it with an inferior record? I think that it was. Chicago won it's division, and the Mets did not, even when they had the chance to. Was it fair for the Cardinals to make the playoffs in 2006 with 83 wins, while Philadelphia (85) and Los Angeles (88) went home? I submit to you that it was. We all know what the Cardinals went on to do that season in winning the World Series -- doesn't that make them the best?<br /><br />Baseball is a game. It's not a scientific study to determine which team is "best" in a given year. I imagine that if there even were a way to determine the "best" team, that they probably don't win the World Series more than a third of the time.<br /><br />I agree that there are issues in our sport that need addressing. However, radically reshaping the sport and creating a host of other issues (interleague, travel, DH, 15th place teams) is not the way I believe we should be addressing them.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-14265846944762400752011-04-25T13:22:00.003-04:002011-04-25T13:27:12.491-04:00Food for ThoughtAs Mark Simon of <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/20515/gee-i-wonder">ESPN New York</a> pointed out yesterday:<br /><br /><blockquote>In those seven starts, Gee has a 2.22 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He’s allowed three home runs in 44 2/3 innings. The one thing that would classify as shaky is his strikeout-to-walk rate -- 26 to 18. But in two starts this season, he’s walked only three in 11 2/3 innings. <br /><br />In his seven starts, Gee’s xFIP is 3.99. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .234, abnormal for a pitcher, but partly explainable by Gee’s ability to avoid batters hitting line drives against him. (His rate is 10 to 12 percent, depending on which source you use, which would rank very high if maintained for a full season.) That figures to increase as big league hitters figure him out. </blockquote><br /><br />Obviously, I'm a fan of Gee. Around this time last year, I <a href="http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2010/04/keep-eye-on-dillon-gee-sp.html">featured Gee</a> in my "Don't Forget About" series on underrated players. <br /><blockquote><br />Gee might never have the ceiling of an ace or #2 starter, but if he keeps pitching like this, he is going to get himself on the radar really fast. According to Toby Hyde, Gee "tops out around 91 with strong control and mixes in his breaking ball for strikes."<br /><br />With the great performance yesterday indicating that his injury woes are behind him, Gee has a tremendous opportunity to continue developing. If you can throw 91 and strike out two or three times as many guys as you walk, you can have a great career in the major leagues.</blockquote><br />Now, here is your food for thought.<br /><br />Regardless of what you think Gee's ceiling is -- is he better than Mike Pelfrey is right now? If you had a one game playoff to determine the winner of the NL East or Wildcard, who would you rather have starting for you: Mike Pelfrey, or Dillon Gee?<br /><br />With Gee on the cusp of being bumped for the rotation for Chris Young, I can't escape the thought that if one of the Mets starters needs to get skipped, it should be Pelfrey. I'm a huge fan of Niese and Dickey, and Young and Capuano have both pitched well enough to deserve additional starts.<br /><br />Just a thought.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-11895653569015262202011-04-09T22:32:00.006-04:002011-04-09T23:00:58.227-04:00It Wasn't Pretty But More Importantly The Mets WON!<span style="font-weight:bold;">Game 2: Mets 8 Nats 4<br />Capuano's Metsies debut vs Gorzelanny<br /></span><br />First night game at Citi field aka the battle of the Hairston bros at Citi Field! Both brothers shamed their family name because they just can't hit but Scott's team is victorious! Btw any "Mad Men" fans out there, does Terry Collins at all remind you of Roger Sterling?!<br /><br />Ok enough of my celebrity doppelganger theories, let's get to the recap!<br /><br />Bottom of the 1st, Reyes singled to lead off this ballgame (and now he has a 6 game hitting streak)! Pagan then popped up. Wright was then up with 1 out and Reyes stole 2nd! But ugh David Wright struck out and it was up to Beltran to bring Jose home with 2 outs and he homered! This was the first Citi Field homer this season and the Mets took a 2-0 lead over the Nats. But sadly Scott Hairston took the early I will shame my baseball family name lead by flying out to Jerry! Ugh why couldn't he at least fly out to an outfielder who doesn't share his surname!<br /><br />3 run homer by Espinosa in top of 2nd, 3-2 boo, the Nats take the lead.<br /><br />Bottom of the 4th Wright struck out and seriously that was his 10th K in 30 at bats, wtf. I thought this was a different David!? But hooray for Beltran who homered again and the game was tied at 3-3 and who doesn't love the Bel-ly 2 homer games! 28th career multiple homer game for Carlos, wahooo!<br /><br />But ugh how soon the lead again disappeared in the top of the 5th! 4-3 after Desmond's lead off solo home. But then Capuano struck out Werth! 7th K of the game for Chris! Then Zimmerman singled to give the Nats their 6th hit of the game, boo. But phew, Morse then flew out and there were two outs, Zimm was on 1st for Wilson Ramos who doubled and thanks to a great play by Pagan in the outfield Zimm had to stay at 3rd and then Ankiel grounded out and the inning was over. Further danger averted!<br /><a name='more'></a> <br /><br />Bottom of the 5th, Capuano with one out doubled thanks to Werth playing way shallow! But ugh ugh Reyes then flew out and it was up to Pagan to tie this ball game up with now 2 outs! And a disgusted with himself Pagan popped up and Chris was left stranded.<br /><br />Top of the 6th Espinosa gets fanned to lead off the inning, 8 K's for Capuano! And he had 8 total K's on the night. Then Jerry Hairston flew out. And Gorzelanny grounded out to end the inning!<br /><br />Davey led off the bottom of the 6th by striking out, just joshing, he got walked! Could Beltran homer again!!?? He didn't homer but Hairston flubbed Carlos' long fly ball, he totally misplayed it and Wright was now on at 2nd and Beltran was on at first with no outs for SCOTT Hairston! Scott shamed the family name too by striking out but then Isaac Benjamin Davis got a 2 run triple! Davey and Carlos scored and it was a 5-4 Mets lead! And that's Ike's 2nd career triple and he now has 8 rib eye steaks on the year! Then Daniel Murphy pinched hit for Hu and he singled, Ike scored and it was a 6-4 ballgame! Then Nickeas singled, Murph went to 3rd on the hit and run play and Duda was up to pinch hit for Capuano with 1 out. But the fun ended, it was a huge K for Duda and even worse it was a strike him out throw him out double play, side retired.<br /><br />123 go the Nats thanks to Buchholz (on only 8 pitches no less) in relief in the top of the 7th! <br /><br />Bottom of the 7th with 1 out Pagan is walked and then with Davey up, Pagan stole 2nd, 4th stolen base for Angel thus far! Wright then grounded out but Angel moved to third and there were 2 outs for Beltran to do some more damage! But ugh he flew out to Werth, inning over. Why couldn't Werth pull a Jerry Hairston!<br /><br />Top of the 8th Bobby P in for relief! And Keith discussed his Mercedes and the booth discussed the strike zone as Bobby gave up a single to Morse. And then he walked Ramos and then phew Ankiel hit one just foul. It looked like a homer. But it wasn't and with first and 2nd and no outs and Ankiel struck out. Yay Bobby! Now it was 1 out and Espinosa was up, ugh. After a huge battle he struck Danny out and with 2 outs Collins made the pitching change and he brought in ugh K-Rod to face the pinch hitter Stairs. Could he get a 4 out save!? Big out for Frankie! Stairs grounded out to Eamus and boom 3 more outs to go for the save!<br /><br />Broderick who came in in the 6th is still in the game to face Hairston in the bottom of the 8th. "I like this kid." Broderick's got a fan in Ron Darling. But then Hairston is hit by a pitch and "Start Me Up" is blasting for Ike! And Davis singled! So the Mets have men on 1st and 2nd and no outs for Eamus. Let's have Ron commend a pitcher's talent more often! Greatest jinx ever! This was Eamus' first time up to bat (Hu started, then Murphy before Brad came in) and he was now hit by a pitch and the bases were loaded with nobody out for Thole. And Broderick was taken out of the game and Slaten was in. And Thole grounded a ball and Davis blocked Desmond from picking up the grounder, as a result Ike was out and the bases were loaded with one out for K-Rod's first ever plate appearance. Gary then said "You know he's gonna be aggressive that's his nature on the field...he looks like he's done this before." But sadly K-Rod struck out and it was up to Reyes to make up for Ike's faux pas. And Jose doubled (3rd 2B this season), Eamus and Hairston scored, Thole to 3rd and it was an 8-4 lead for the Mets! And then Pagan flew out to end the inning.<br /><br />Could K-Rod get a save? Would 4 runs be a big enough cushion for his drama mama ways?! Of course this wasn't an easy top of the 9th! Cora pinch hit to lead off against Frankie and he was walked. Next up Desmond was walked and it was 1st and 2nd with nobody out for the bearded Werth. And Jayson's evil beard was not so evil and he grounded into a 6-3-4 double play, wahoo! Now it was up to Zimmerman with 2 outs and Cora on third and Frankie struck out Zimm and the Mets win, the Mets win! <br /><br />Here's to tomorrow and hopefully the Mets first home series victory!Daniellehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09018502443570418645noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-55846154938991800742011-04-08T01:40:00.002-04:002011-04-08T01:46:14.594-04:00Fernando Martinez will be starting for the Mets in JuneYou heard it here first.<br /><br />And not because we're desperate. But because we won't be able to deny him. <br /><br />4-for-5 with a double tonight against Syracuse. He hit .364 with more walks than strikeouts in limited time this spring. Sure, it's a gut call, but it's one I'm comfortable making.<br /><br />He's 22 this year. I think this is his year.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-23705341506797982842011-04-03T18:24:00.004-04:002011-04-03T18:34:57.366-04:00So far so good...Game 3: <span style="font-weight:bold;">Mets 9 Marlins 2</span><br /><span style="font-style:italic;">Dickey vs Vazquez</span><br /><br />I'm not gonna give a recap of this game but let's instead take a look at what we've learned about Terry Collins' 2011 Mets before they head on over for some Philly Cheesesteaks:<br /><br />K-Rod may be going to anger management but he's still rocking the goggles and he's still having an extreme difficult time saving games. Okay it was just one game so far but he looked awful against Florida. But again it was one game, and even that Mariano Rivera messes up from time to time so I'm not turning on Frankie just yet.<br /><br />Isaac Benjamin Davis got off to a rocky start with a few hiccups at first base which was and is shocking since he was the man last year that would make incredible plays diving into the stands. But since that first not so hot game he appears to have his hitting and defensive prowess back. He definitely has the potential to hit 20 homers (perhaps 30), bat .300 and rack up 100 ribeye steaks.<br /><br />RA Dickey probably is our ace with Johan on the DL. No matter how many times he gets into trouble, he's the one Metsies pitcher I can watch without half covering my eyes when the bases are loaded. He has no trouble keeping his cool and he gets out of jams. Plus his post game locker room interviews are always worth watching. This man is brilliant and it's always just nice to hear his take on a game.<br /><br />Beltran is hitting. That is what counts. Plus he's Duda's Yoda. According to Burkhardt, Carlos keeps an eye on Lucas and gives him advice to improve his hitting. They also have had dinner dates!<br /><br />Eamus or Murphy at second?! The biggest fear with Daniel Murphy at second is the fact that he won't be able to turn double plays. He really didn't get a chance to do that yet during his one start but he looked absolutely fine at second. Eamus got his first hit in game 2 and he's looked pretty great defensively. It's a tough call.<br /><br />Reyes and Pagan are still fast as can be and defensive badasses. <br /><br />David Wright is looking like pre-getting hit in the head Davey. He's hitting, okay his defense hasn't been perfect but his swing is looking marvelous. I am thinking this could be a season where Wright doesn't strike out in consecutive games, gasp.<br /><br />Willie Harris is proving to be a great pickup. So far he's pinch hit successfully, he's homered, he's played great defense and he's proven he can actually help the Mets and not just rob them of victories like he did as a National. <br /><br />Jonathan Niese has had the tendency in the past to pitch great but to start out a little rusty. He does give up first inning runs but he also can then bounce back and give the Mets 6 scoreless innings. <br /><br />Big Pelf looks like he is just picking up where he left off last season and that's no good. If he can get himself centered and back into his early 2010 form we really could have a pretty good pitching staff that could give a lot of teams trouble.<br /><br />The Mets as a team have proven so far that just like last year they can fight back. They don't give up and that's great to see. Even when K-Rod blew the save game 2 they bounced right back in that top of the 10th and regained the lead. Does that mean we might see another 20 inning game, perhaps?! <br /><br />Run support has been an issue with the Metsies. So many games last year we saw great pitching outings but the squad couldn't hit. Dickey for some reason was the one pitcher who seemed to always get run support and that has continued thus far. <br /><br />In general Florida just kicks the Mets asses. Last year it was no picnic playing the fish so taking a series on the road from them is a great start.<br /><br />On the road the Mets just couldn't win and they already have one road series under their belts so that's pretty neat and promising.<br /><br />SNY still is all about the Geico and Fiberama commercials....<br /><br />Keith hasn't fallen asleep or made that many funny comments yet but he has said "Cheese" so I think there's no reason to fear he's lost his unpredictable/very entertaining booth mojo. Just for now he seems very professional and that's great but we need some random tangents about authors or musicians or Sag Harbor just in case this season gets really ugly.<br /><br />I know we don't have big expectations for the Metsies but you know what maybe they'll surprise us. A 2-1 start is not that shabby at all and I guess the real test is coming up. Philadelphia and that ridiculous pitching staff will be quite hard to defeat but you know what anything is possible in the world of sports. So for now let's just take it game by game and hope Collins' Metsies surprise us this year!Daniellehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09018502443570418645noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20149989.post-58878024187973901102011-04-02T22:24:00.006-04:002011-04-03T08:23:05.031-04:00Same old drama mama K-Rod...but the Mets are still triumphant!Game 2: <span style="font-weight:bold;">Mets6 Marlins4</span> (10 innings)<br /> <span style="font-style:italic;">Niese vs Nolasco </span><br /><br />Gary had a major hard on for the Florida sunset during this game..."Nice to see Niese settling in" was a phrase uttered by the booth quite often and K-Rod proved once again some things sadly never change. But let's not dwell on Frankie, let's get to the recap of the Metsies first victorino of the season!<br /><br />Here we go! 123 top of the first for Nolasco. Sheesh who does Nolasco think he is, Josh Johnson? He needs to save this impersonation for the Phillies and the Braves. Yep.<br /><br />To the bottom of the 1st, Niese right from the start was in trouble and bam before we could see 3434343 Fiberama commercials (because oh SNY is relentless with those buggers) 2 were in scoring position with 1 out for Gaby Sanchez. Sanchez was walked and the bases were loaded for Morrison, he singled and Infante and Ramirez scored. Yet again the Marlins got out to an early lead, 2-0 fish. Now the new Mets killer John Buck was up with men on 1st and 2nd and still just 1 out and this time he was human! Buck hit a fly ball to right way in foul territory and Beltran grabbed it! Wahoo! Then Donnie Murphy made the final out, phew.<br /><br />Beltran led off the top of the 2nd by striking out. Terrible. Next up was Isaac Benjamin Davis! And Ike got an opposite field double, his first hit in 2011! Wahoo! Duda then flew out to left, gosh it's always zipadeeDUDA with Lucas. Now it was up to Eamus to get Ike home and put a run on the board and he struck out and stranded that awesomely bearded Davis on 2nd. <br /><br />123 bottom of the 2nd for Niese! I love these Niese of cake innings!<br /><br />Josh Thole singled to lead off the top of the 3rd! That was Joshy's first hit of the season, woot woot! Then Burkhardt does a segment on MLB-ers who cook and it turns out Johan Santana has very impressive skills with a knife and Davey Wright loves apple pie. I know the things Kevin teaches us sometimes are vital for our sports loving existence. Talk about hard hitting news! Oh and during this "Diamond Dishes" segment Niese sac bunted to move Josh on over to 2nd so maybe Reyes could like get an RBI. And Reyes hit a beauty to center but Coghlan was able to make the catch, bollocks. Now Thole was at 3rd with two outs for Crazy Horse Pagan. I really want to get to say it's back back back it's Pa-GONE a lot this season but sadly this was not one of those times for me to get to do that. It was a long fly ball but not long enough. Fly outs to right suck! Inning over.<br /><br />123 bottom of the 3rd for Niese and that also meant he had retired 8 in a row! <br /><br /><br />In the top of the 4th Wright led off with a bombarino! Ron remarked "That was some serious pop Keith" and oh it was and now it was just a one run ballgame. 2-1! Then it looked like Beltran was homering too but nope it was a fakeout. And then that Coghlan made a great play in center to take a base hit away from Ike. So now it was 2 outs and nobody on for Mr. Duda and he duh is not winning and struck out. <br /><br />After a slew of Geico commercials we were back for the bottom of the 4th and it was another 123 inning for Niese!<br /><br />Eamus led off the top of the 5th with his first big league hit, wahoo! Other than that this was a pointless half of an inning.<br /><br />Niese picked up his first K of the night in the bottom of the 5th or as Keith referred to it "He just ate up Coghlan." With 2 outs and a man on 2nd Infante grounded a ball hard to Davey, Wright bobbled it and he had no play to make (first error of the Metsies season) and men were now on first and third for Ramirez ugh. But phew danger averted and Hanley grounded out to Eamus!<br /><br />In the top of the 6th Beltran got a 2 out single and it was time for some Ike magic! And Ike tied the game with a double! 2-2! Davis' bat and beard are real and spectacular but blah blah then Duda go figures did the whole grounding out to end the inning thang. He really likes to leave Ike stranded on 2nd. Not cool Duda.<br /><br />"He's throwing inside aggressively, I love it" said the Hernandez. Niese struck out John Buck who is now all of a sudden pretending he can't hit to end the inning and that meant a 123 bottom of the 6th for Niese!<br /><br />In the top of the 7th Thole hit a 1 out single but Bonifacio made a Frenchy type play and he caught Thole off the bag and Josh was out, that hit was wasted and then Niese struck out to end the inning. <br /><br />In the bottom of the 7th the go ahead run was on 2nd with 1 out for Helms and Jon struck him out! Then it was time for Coghlan with the pinch runner Cousins (Donnie Murphy left the game) still at 2nd and he grounded out and the inning was over! Only 86 pitches thrown!<br /><br />In the top of the 8th Reyes grounded out and he's now 0-8 this season. Then Bonifacio had to go and show off the glove again (now at 3rd) to make a great defensive play that took an infield hit away from Crazy Horse Angel Pagan. So with 2 outs and nobody on it was Wright's turn to maybe homer again but nah he just singled and that was mighty fine. But ugh Beltran grounded out and the inning was over.<br /><br />Bottom of the 8th Bobby P time! 123 inning for Parnell including two K's!<br /><br />Could the hero be Josh Thole?! Thole rbi singled in the top of the 9th to give the Metsies a 3-2 lead!<br /><br />And then it was K-Rod time, his first pitch of the year was a strike! He even struck out Logan Morrison for out numero uno but of course the shit hit the fan and K-Rod was up to his old I like to blow saves tricks. This part was very upsetting for me so I'm just gonna say the Marlins tied the ballgame 3-3 and somehow K-Rod didn't give up any more runs and we were headed to extra innings.<br /><br />In the top of the 10th Reyes and Pagan both got on base with back to back singles (Pagan successful bunt single). Then David Wright did it again and he singled, Reyes scored and the Mets regained the lead 4-3 and phew they weren't done! Fast forward to 1st and 3rd 2 outs for Willie Harris and oh Harris is making us fans very happy (and oh we deserve that after all the Mets killing he did last season) and he doubled and the Mets had a 6-3 lead going into the bottom of the 10th!<br /><br />K-Rod was back to pitch again, I'm just playing, it was Blaine Boyer and he wasn't perfect at all but the Mets won so that's what counts! The Mets are 1-1 and the one and only RA Dickey takes the mound tomorrow! I can't wait. Last year I just looked forward to those Dickey starts.<br /><br />So to tomorrow and some knuckleball fun!Daniellehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09018502443570418645noreply@blogger.com0