Sunday, November 04, 2007

A-Rod, Part 2

Just to weigh in, because I didn't put a Mets angle on it last time.

Now, A-Rod wants a ridiculous, stupid, payroll-crushing, team-dehabilitating contract. The Mets should not pay a player $30+ million a season, unless there is something that I am not understanding regarding the Mets payroll structure.

For instance, the Mets are currently around $120 M per season in payroll, and have been between there and $100 M as far back as I can remember keeping track of the numbers (approximately 2000). If there is room in the payroll to go up to $200 M like the Yankees, or to make a couple big additions thanks to the new stadium or SNY, then maybe A-Rod makes sense. Short of a good, business-side reason to do it, I doubt it will happen.

I will not, however, tolerate the people who say that its not a good baseball decision. Money wise, it might not be practical. Baseball wise, its a no brainer. Sure, we have David Wright and Jose Reyes manning the two positions that A-Rod has ever played in the majors. That's great. But we're talking about the best player in the game here. Available. For nothing but money. No trade, no nothing. Just cash.

I'm just spitballing here, but if I were the Mets, I'd sign A-Rod to play third and move David Wright to second. A lot of people are saying that David should move to first, but he's got a lot of natural talent and doesn't need to be hidden. He has fast hands and feet, and the majority of his errors have been throwing. Putting him at second alleviates those concerns.

Of course, there is always the concern that moving David would affect his hitting, or clubhouse demeanor, or what have you. And those are valid concerns. But if you think that A-Rod could be had within budget, I think you have no choice but to do it. David has a good personality and good baseball smarts. Move him to second, a position of ridiculous scarcity, and let him battle it out with Chase Utley for years to come.

Now, A-Rod might not be the best third baseman fielding-wise, but he won't accept a contract to play first base. Unfortunately, he also can't pitch.

But the object of the game is to score more runs than the other team. There is no discernable way, as far as I can tell, to improve the pitching staff at the moment.... but that is NOT a reason to stand pat and do nothing. Take a look at this.

SS Reyes
CF Beltran
2B Wright
3B Rodriguez
LF Alou
1B Delgado
RF Milledge
C Castro
P Pitcher

Four players who could legitimately compete for the MVP. Reyes and Wright are among the top ten best players under 25. Beltran is, I believe 29. A-Rod would be 31. That core would be around for the next four years. Alou and Delgado can't be counted on to carry the lineup - but when healthy, this team could drop the hammer big time. And if you like, you can even do this.

SS Reyes
RF Milledge
3B Rodriguez
CF Beltran
2B Wright
1B Delgado
LF Alou
C Castro
P Pitcher

This makes the lineup S, R, R, S, R, L, R, R. If Milledge takes the step forward that I expect him to this season, that lineup could score 1000 runs. Of course, the heart of the order is very righthanded, so we need Beltran separating Wright and A-Rod. But I think it woul dbe great. It would also give Beltran, facing righty specialists, the ability to bat lefthanded and tee off for an entire season. Oh, mercy.

By the way, Milledge projection. Having watched him, he's not doing to develop power. He's also not going to develop the speed I expected from him. I see Milledge as - and don't laugh - a young Tony Gwynn. Of course, he's got a completely different body... but his lightning quick bat is going to ensure him high batting averages forever.

He posted a line that was something like .330/.390/.470 in AA two years ago. I expected that the power would develop but it looks at this point like he is too small. He just has the wrist quickness. This year, and for his career, I expect high averages, a decent amount of homers, a little speed, and great defense. Not much speed though.

He posted a .272/.341/.446 last year. Look for Milledge to do something like this if given playing time this season:

.305 ba, .355 obp, .470 slg, for an OPS of 825. He'll hit 20 home runs and steal 16 bases. If he bats up in the order, expect him to score 100 runs and drive in 80. Its not huge, but players like that are a very, very, very valuable commodity. Over the last ten years, NL outfielders under the age of 30 have been able to hit .300 with 20/20 seventeen times. Think about it.

In the prime of his career, Milledge may be able to hit, with some luck: .330/.380/.500 with about 25 homers a year. Remember, he was only 22 this year.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Weighing In on A-Rod and Bonds

A-Rod Opts Out of His Contract, Seeks 30M per year

Two things about this situation confuse me.

First of all, why on earth would thus guy do this? The last time he was a free agent he signed a massive contract worth $252 Million dollars. Although that was good news for A-Rod, the contract was so massive that it completely disabled his team from making any signings of trades to be competitive - as a result, he spend several years in Texas finishing in last place. Now that he's a free agent again, he wants the same thing to happen?

Second, why the very personal backlash from the fans and media? You guys vilified A-Rod while he was here - you booed him and called him every pejorative, insulting name in the book. Every day his life was a media circus. He was blamed for the failures of the team at every turn, although by all objective accounts, he had one of the finest seasons in history. Let him go. Why be angry? Why be so personal? If you can get out of New York and get your money somewhere else, why wouldn't you?

A-Rod will probably get 10 years and $300 million. He's the best player in the game. He's on pace of obliterate all kinds of records. He's amazing, and can basically dictate his years, money, position, and everything else. It is his choice to do so. However, it will probably be a mistake for whatever team does it, and a mistake for A-Rod.

Bonds Refuses to Go to Hall of Fame if His Record-Breaking Ball is Displayed with an Asterisk

Good for you. Fuck all these haters. Baseball has been full of cheaters since the beginning of time - if the Hall of Fame stoops to such a low level by displaying a defaced ball, fuck them. I'm pretty convinced about this.

First, Barry Bonds was a hall of fame hitter before any of this steroid stuff happened. He was an incredible mix of power and speed, he played great defense, and was a three or four time MVP before a single illegal substance entered his body (according to allegations).

Second, baseball is full of cheaters. If you're going to display his ball with an asterisk, you had better get the same childish, bullshit treatment ready for every other cheater and scumbag and racist in history. Lets start with Ty Cobb and Gaylord Perry. Lets make Babe Ruth's section all about his womanizing and substance abuse. Lets kick out Mickey Mantle. Lets make sure that Rickey Henderson and Hank Aaron have asterisks on their records for the amphetamines that they definitely used. And why stop there? Maybe we should take Mel Ott and Hank Greenberg out of the Hall because of their natural, as opposed to supplemented, strength?

Baseball should do what it has always done. Accept every donation that is made to the Hall. Induct every person into the Hall who deserves it. Its a Hall of Fame, not a Hall of Morals or a Hall of anything else. It celebrates the history and legends and records of baseball... and whether you like it or not, the all-time home run king is Barry Bonds. Admit him, admit his belongings, and celebrate his records... and do what you've always done. Tell the entire story. There is no other way to deal with the steroid era, when nobody is guilty and nobody is innocent and nobody will really know - all we have is empty and baseless suspicion. What happened on the field happened. Allowing personal judgments into it will create a bad precedent.