Showing posts with label Brian Mangan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brian Mangan. Show all posts

Monday, January 02, 2012

Bernie Williams: A Mets Fan's Take on his Hall of Fame Candidacy

Growing up in New York City in the 90's, it was not easy being a Mets fan.  To be clear, it's *never* easy being a Mets fan, but the 90's -- particularly the late 90's -- was an a particularly trying time for a baseball-obsessed teenager to like the Mets.  As a high school student at the time, I knew that each September would deliver me the distinct pleasure of returning to school with the Yankees setting their playoff rotation and the Mets limping flaccidly to the finish line.

To make matters worse, my high school was located in downtown Manhattan, a stone's throw from the Canyon of Heroes.  As a result, my classmates and I were fortunate enough to have a front row seat to not one, not two, but THREE Yankee World Series Championship Parades (they failed to win the World Series -- losers! -- in 1997). 

Aside from 1999 and 2000, Mets fans didn't have much to root for late in the year and would be subject to torture by our much more fortunate classmates.  (Not that September was always entirely uninteresting to a good fan back in the day... Did you know Lance Johnson had 21 triples in 1996?)  Years of this behavior instilled a definite, permanent hatred in my heart for all things Yankees -- so much so, in fact, that even though I spent a week convincing myself that I'd root for the Yankees to beat the Phillies in the 2010 World Series, it took only one pitch before I hated the Pinstripes again.  It was reflexive. 

In the midst of all this Yankee dominance, there was one character who seemed to defy everything that I knew about the Yankees and against whom I felt no enmity:  Bernie Williams.

As anyone reading this already knows, for the better part of a decade -- and especially in the late 90's -- Bernie Williams was an awesome, All-Star, Gold Glove-winning centerfielder for the Yankees.  Bernie was going to play good-enough defense, play 140 or more games, and hit .330.  He batted cleanup on a stacked, multiple World Series winning team.  But ... I didn't hate him.  And as I see Bernie's name for the first time on the Hall of Fame Ballot, I gave it more pause than I originally thought that I would.  Is Bernie Williams a Hall of Famer?


I'll save you guys some reading:  a quick look at his raw career statistics implies that he is not.  With only 287 home runs and 2,336 hits, he didn't play long enough at a high enough level to accumulate the impressive statistics that the Hall of Fame voters require for entry to the Hall.  He only once led the league in a significant statistical category -- batting average, in 1998.  He never won the MVP, or placed higher than 7th.  None of his Baseball-Reference top ten most comparable players are members of the Hall themselves (though a few are still active). 

So why can't I shake this Bernie Williams thing?  Why do I feel like Bernie Williams has at least an *argument* for the Hall .. and why do I feel this way as a Mets fan?!

Phenomenal Peak Hitter

In the prime of his career, few put up as impressive batting lines as Bernabe Williams.  From 1995 to 2002 -- a span of eight incredible years -- Bernie Williams batted .321/.406/.531.  His OPS of 937 was good for an OPS+ of 142.  He walked almost nearly as much as he struck out.

Not sure how good an OPS+ of 142 is?  For that stretch of time, he was basically Ryan Braun (career 145 OPS+) or Prince Fielder (144 OPS+).  Think MVP-winner Josh Hamilton is a good player?  Well, Hamilton has a career OPS+ of 134, weighted strongly toward slugging percentage rather than on-base percentage, and can't stay particularly healthy.  For the better part of a DECADE, Bernie Williams was as good, or better than all of them.

Centerfielder

Although he was never regarded as a brilliant defensive centerfielder (four Gold Gloves notwithstanding), Bernie did all that he did and he did it at one of the most important and challenging positions on the diamond.  Oh, and he did win those four Gold Gloves.

According to Fangraphs, Bernie was not bad defensively in the majority of his career.  Although he declined precipitously beginning in 2003, at the age of only 34, Total Zone has Bernie as only 59 runs below average as a center fielder over the first twelve years of his career. 

Championship Winner
Even more, as much as people want to talk about Derek Jeter or the Yankees "Core Four" of Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, and Rivera, nobody's career coincided with Yankee Championships better than that of Bernie Williams.  Bernie donned pinstripes from 1993 to 2006 as a full-time player, but was truly a full time, healthy force from 1995 to 2002.  In that time period, the Yankees, as we all know, won the World Series four times -- or 50% of the seasons that Bernie played at his peak.

His name litters the all time postseason leaderboards.  He's second all time in postseason runs, hits, doubles, and home runs.  In most of these categories, he is second to Derek Jeter -- a player who has over 150 more postseason plate appearances than Bernie does.  He's third all time in walks, but only by one, and he's somehow miraculously still FIRST all time in postseason RBI.

I don't mean to say that any of the above "winner" stuff should factor too seriously into Hall of Fame voting.  However, Hall of Fame voters, as currently constituted, DO factor things like that into the equation.  So why the lack of buzz about Bernie?

Putting all of the above into context, it is really hard to understand by Bernie Williams has not been getting more attention when it comes to the Hall of Fame.  

His mainstream credentials above are strong.  His sabermetric credentials are even stronger.  Starting with 1995, Bernie posted a WAR of 4.9 or higher every year except one (when he posted a 4.2 WAR) and peaked at a value of 6.7 WAR.  Bernie made only five all-star teams, but by all accounts, should probably have been on seven or eight. 

He compares incredibly favorably to other center fielders.  As a current example, my love for Carlos Beltran is well pronounced, but even the most successful stretch in his career pales in comparison to Bernie.  From 2003 to 2009, the prime of Beltran's career, when Beltran averaged 27 home runs and 25 steals per year, he still only posted an OPS+ of 128.

A writer named Lincoln Mitchell over at the Faster Times brought up a truly incredible statistic last month when discussing Bernie's candidacy:
Another way to assess Williams candidacy is to determine how many center fielders in the history of the game had clearly better careers.  The list is shorter than one might initially think . . . One way to see this is that Williams played 1,924 games in center field during a career where he posted an OPS+ of 125.  In the history of the game, only eight players have played 1,700 or more games in center field with an OPS+ of 115 or better.  Three of these players, Williams, Griffey and Edmonds are not eligible for the Hall of Fame.  The other five are all in.  Williams’ numbers are far behind those of Cobb, Mays, Speaker and Mantle, but are better than Edd Roush’s and a cut behind contemporaries Griffey and Edmonds.
Even as a Bernie Williams fan, I could not believe that the above was true.

Unfortunately, as of this writing, Bernie Williams is not going to make the Hall of Fame.  Even worse, according to the list put together by the guys over at Baseball Think Factory, it looks like Bernie will be one-and-done, and not even get another year on the ballot:
92.6 - Barry Larkin
...
43.2 - Lee Smith
...
11.1 - Don Mattingly
...
2.5 - Bernie Williams
After 81 ballots were published online and aggregated, it looks like he'll fall short of the 5% required  to remain eligible for Hall voting the next year.

I am glad that some guys (Bert Blyleven comes to mind) have made the Hall of Fame after a grassroots campaign developed for them, or hung around for years and became part of the debate (Ron Santo, Jack Morris, Andre Dawson).  Unfortunately for Bernie, it doesn't appear that he'll have a chance to do that, and I can tell you that Fonzie Forever has neither the traffic or panache to do what Rich Lederer now famously did for Blyleven. 

So, although I cannot help Bernie get the respect that I think he rightfully deserves, I can still use my soap box to say thank you.

Bernie Williams always played the game with class.  He was, for a time, an elite hitter who played center field, won four World Series, and owns the most glorious of mainstream postseason records (RBI).  He was even so much of a True Yankee (tm) that they buried him under the New Yankee Stadium for luck.

Thank you for your charity (here, here, here), your music, and your wisdom.  And thank you for proving to a teenaged-version of myself that even on a horrible, evil empire like the Yankees, that there is the capacity for good.  Thanks.

 
"I know there's certain things regarding your job or whatever you may end up doing [that you don't like], but I'm here to tell you, don't let your job define who you are. Your relationships will define who you are.  No matter what you choose to do in life ... you are going to be in a position to make an impact on somebody's life."- Bernie Williams


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Brian Mangan is a lawyer who lives in New York.  He is glad to have survived the baseball-trauma of his mid-90's youth so that he could live to see the Mets' ten times more upsetting current state of affairs.
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Follow us on twitter at @fonzieforever

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

2011-2012 Non-Tenders: Slim Pickings

A huge shout out to the estimable MLB Trade Rumors site for putting together the list of the 29 players non-tendered by their teams this offseason and who are now free agents.  In the past I have enjoyed putting together a comprehensive list of non-tenders and free agents who I thought would make sense for the Mets -- unfortunately, due to time, I will only be able to review a few this time around. 

Without further adieu, a reproduction of the entire list, and a highlight of the players I like:

Catchers (5)
     Chris Gimenez, Koyie Hill, Ronny Paulino, Eli Whiteside, Jason Jaramillo
 Second basemen (2)
     Jeff Keppinger, Will Rhymes
 Shortstops (1)
     Pedro Ciriaco
 Outfielders (5)
     Mike Baxter, Cole Garner, Jeremy Hermida, Luke Scott, Ryan Spilborghs
 Utility infielders (2)
     Brooks Conrad, Ryan Theriot
 Starting Pitchers (2)
     Jo-Jo Reyes, Joe Saunders
 Right-handed relievers (7)
     Fabio Castillo, Dan Cortes, Willie Eyre, Clay Hensley, Peter Moylan, Micah Owings, Andy Sonnanstine
 Left-handed relievers (5)
     Rich Hill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Aaron Laffey, Jose Mijares, Doug Slaten
The players that I select will be selected in light of what their projected cost might be and the needs of our squad.  For that reason, you won't see guys like Hong-Chih Kuo (too expensive), Joe Saunders (too expensive), Micah Owings (will likely return to current team), or Mike Baxter (just non-tendered him) on this list.

#1 - 2B Will Rhymes
Rhymes, aside from having a great name, is 28 years old and was non-tendered by Detroit this year after a disappointing season where he hit .235/.323/.271 in 99 at bats.  Rhymes is a very disciplined hitter -- he made contact on 92.6% of his swings in the majors -- and plays passable defense at second base (-3.6 UZR/150 in 600 innings).  

Rhymes is not going to light anyone's hair on fire, but he has hit .305 and .306 in Triple-A over the last two seasons, and posted an OPS of around 770.  In my book, he's worthy of bringing in as an non-roster invite to compete with Murphy at second base in light of the lack of other options (and don't say Jeff Keppinger to me, as his defense appears to be falling off a cliff and he's got no value if he isn't batting .320).

#2 - OF Jeremy Hermida
You know who this guy is.  And I say, why the hell not.  What happened to Jeremy Hermida is one of the great mysteries of modern times (along with Lastings Milledge, Elvis, and Pop Tarts) but even so he has been moderately valuable over the last few years.

Hermida has remained an average defender in right field for his career, and has posted excellent UZR's in his last two seasons in right (approximately +30 UZR/150 in a small sample of 275 innings).  Although he batted .190 in his last stint in the majors, he possesses a career 749 major league OPS and is only 27 years of age.  Given regular playing time in the minors for Cincinnati, Hermida put up a .319 average and 924 OPS.  

If Hermida can play good defense and hit .250, he'll definitely provide positive value, provided how tarnished his stock has become.  Hermida will likely latch on somewhere as a non-roster invite and make the major league minimum.  He is an adequate fifth outfielder option with some upside (I would start him every day in Triple-A).

#3 - RP Clay Hensley
I realize the Mets have added epic depth to their bullpen, but in terms of above non-tenders who they can afford who have a little upside, Hensley fits the bill.  Hensley, like the others, struggled last year, posting a 5.19 ERA and -0.1 WAR. 

However, Hensley is also the possessor of a 3.94 career ERA and is coming off a season where he posted a 2.16 ERA (2.87 FIP) for the Marlins in 2010.  His peripherals supported the performance, as Hensley struck out 9.24 batters per nine innings in his season-long dominant performance.

Hensley missed time with injury last season, but provided that he is healthy, would be a great addition for the Mets to keep or to trade at the deadline as I've heard so many suggest about our other bullpen acquisitions (though seriously people, this does not happen as often as you think).

#4 - SP Rich Hill
Hill had a breakthrough performance in 2007, striking out 183 batters and posting a WHIP of only 1.19.  Unfortunately for him, he's been derailed by injuries (bad) and forced to play for the Orioles (worse).

His last four seasons, Hill has pitched only 89 major league innings, and struggled in almost all of them and underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year.  He still had the "stuff" the last two years before going down with injury, so he's an intriguing flier.  He won't contribute to the squad in 2012, but he may be worthy of a look for late next season or for 2013.

I Also Like...
Peter Moylan and Luke Scott, should the price be right.

Monday, November 21, 2011

The Rise and Rise of the Wilpon Baseball Empire

The Rise and Rise of the Wilpon Baseball Empire
Over the last 30 years, Fred Wilpon has gone from regular fan, to minority owner, to half owner, to complete owner of the New York Mets.  And it’s going to take more than a run in with Bernard Madoff to unseat him.

Recently, I was reflecting my Mets and this whole Fred Wilpon - Bernie Madoff mess and it occurred to me how many drastic changes have occurred in such a short period of time.  One day, it's a billion dollar lawsuit; the next, the majority of the lawsuit is thrown out by a judge. One week they are entering into a tentative agreement with hedge-fund millionaire David Einhorn to purchase a stake in the team; the next,that deal is no longer on the table.

When his deal fell through with the Mets, Einhorn had some very interesting comments for the media. "I was very surprised to see that many of the provisions of the deal, that were in place since May, had been changed.  A week ago I thought this deal was in great shape and would be done very soon." (link).  In a statement, Einhorn accused the Mets owners of changing the terms of the deal at the last second, saying that the "extensive nature of changes that were proposed to me at the last minute has made a successful transaction impossible." [1]

It goes without saying that those are some pretty serious allegations from Einhorn.  As fans, we may not know what to make of them, because we don’t know too much about the guy.  Were his comments the sour grapes from a spurned partner?  Or could the Wilpons truly have surprised him with the changes they proposed at the last second?
 
Before I go further, it bears mentioning that Fred Wilpon is extremely well-regarded, both personally and professionally.  His acumen in baseball and in real estate, his true career, have never been questioned.  His company, Sterling Equities, is considered a star in the industry (excellent business-side writeup here).  As the New Yorker explained in its brilliant article on Wilpon and Madoff earlier this year:
“But Fred is in the very next group, with the Rudins, the Resnicks, and the Zuckers.” Wilpon’s reputation transcends the extent of his holdings. “Everybody likes Fred, there is tremendous respect for Fred, people listen to what he has to say, and I don’t know of anybody who has ever had an open fight with him,” Spinola said. “They’d all like to beat each other out, but I have never heard a negative thing said about Fred Wilpon.” William Rudin, the chief executive of Rudin Management, said, “Fred’s reputation in the real-estate community is top tier. He couldn’t be more of a gentleman.” (New Yorker)
But for me, I am most interested in the Mets, and in learning more about how Fred Wilpon became the powerful figure that he is today.  The following is some of what I’ve learned, from public sources, about some of the more important occurrences in the history of our franchise.

We’ll never get into that board room and hear the conversations between the Wilpon and Einhorn teams, and we’ll never see the actual term sheets that were proposed, but one thing that lends credence to Einhorn’s claims is an examination of how the Wilpons broke into the sports industry and gained their influence.  Fred Wilpon’s ascent to power has been a consistent and inexorable march. 

In fact, the recent saga with David Einhorn is not even close to being the most interesting ownership saga surrounding the Mets in the last decade.

THE DOUBLEDAY-WILPON SEPARATION
Before blogs were a ubiquitous part of the way we get our sports news – exponentially amplifying the hype and noise and speed with which we get information – the Mets went through a very dramatic ownership drama.  In August of 2002, Fred Wilpon and Nelson Doubleday consummated an agreement whereby Doubleday would sell his share of the Mets to Wilpon and end a bitter, fifteen year relationship as co-owners.  The day the agreement was made public, the Times reported:
Nelson Doubleday and Fred Wilpon ended their public feud over how much the Mets were worth yesterday and agreed to a deal in which Wilpon would purchase Doubleday's half share in the team... The legal dispute between the two men erupted last month when Wilpon filed suit in United States District Court in Islip, N.Y., to force Doubleday to accept the payment terms set out in a $391 million valuation of the Mets. The lawsuit exposed the distrust and acrimony that had simmered between them for years.
Doubleday did not look good at the time.  In the article, Doubleday is referred to as a "blustery scion of publishing wealth" who claimed that Wilpon was "in cahoots" with Major League Baseball.  The article continues on to call Wilpon, the "quieter, self-made real estate developer" who was able to successfully "undermine" Doubleday's arguments.  So long as the New York Times was concerned, there appeared to be a winner in the court of public opinion.

But what really happened there?  Does that incident provide context for what happened with Einhorn?  And how much of it can be explained by the extremely close relationship between Fred Wilpon and MLB Commissioner Bud Selig?

THE HISTORY BETWEEN THE TWO MEN
Nelson Doubleday was, at one time, the majority owner of the New York Mets.  In 1980, Doubleday & Co. purchased the Mets from owner Joan Payson – and a man named Fred Wilpon was allowed to join as a minority partner owning five-percent (check out the fantastic picture of young Wilpon here.)  The dynamic changed drastically, however, in 1986, when Doubleday sold Doubleday & Co.– the entity which officially owned the Mets -- but wanted to keep the team itself.  When this happened, Fred Wilpon took full advantage.  The New York Observer, in an article published 2000, describes how Wilpon made his move:
“In the beginning, Doubleday Publishing owned 95 percent of the team… But around the same time, Mr. Wilpon was outmaneuvering Mr. Doubleday, parlaying his 5 percent stake into half-ownership. At the time, Mr. Doubleday was selling the publishing company that owned the Mets to the German firm Bertelsmann A.G. But Mr. Wilpon had a right of first refusal in the event of any sale of the team, and his lawyers made it clear he was ready to exercise it. In a settlement, the two men agreed to become equal partners, paying Bertelsmann $81 million for the team. It has been said that Mr. Doubleday never forgave Mr. Wilpon.”
According to the Times, Doubleday was actually entirely “unaware of that clause in the contract” allowing Wilpon to make that power-play, and “resented” Wilpon’s status as an equal ever since.  So while Doubleday intended to keep the team even though Doubleday & Co. was being sold, Wilpon’s “right of first refusal” gave him the power to purchase the team before it could be sold to anyone else.   It certainly appears that Fred Wilpon was wise to negotiate that right for himself and then use it to his advantage.  This will be important later on, as will the fact that the Mets were valued (at least by Bertelsmann and the partners) at over $80 million in 1986.

From that day on, by all accounts, the two men shared a difficult and acrimonious partnership.  The Observer explained in 2000:
About the only thing the Mets co-owners share these days, it seems, is their barely concealed distaste for one another. Since they became equal partners in 1986-in a hostile takeover of sorts by Mr. Wilpon-the two men have been engaged in an on-again, off-again struggle for power over the team, dividing the front office into warring camps and fighting proxy battles over hirings, firings and trades.
By the time that late 2001 rolled around, Wilpon and Doubleday were reportedly closing in on a deal for Wilpon to purchase Doubleday's share of the team.  According to sources, Wilpon had already previously scuttled a deal whereby Doubleday and Wilpon would have sold 80% of the team to Cablevision in a deal valuing the Mets at $500 million [2].  However, Wilpon wanted to retain control of the team and talks continued.
When the possible sale of the team to Cablevision was being negotiated two years ago, the price was said to be $400 million for 80 percent ownership, with Wilpon and Doubleday each retaining a 10 percent share. Two months ago, Forbes magazine valued the Mets at $454 million. The potential deal with Cablevision fell through because Wilpon decided he wanted to retain control of the club and eventually turn it over to his son, Jeff.  Times, June 22, 2001
With no resolution in sight, Doubleday chose to invoke a clause in his contract requiring Fred Wilpon to buy out Doubleday’s half of the team [3].  The price for said buyout would be determined not by the Cablevision offer, or the Forbes valuation, or by the market, but by a neutral arbitrator -- and that, as they say, is where the plot thickens. 

THE APPRAISAL, THE LAWSUITS, AND THE FINGERPRINTS
The arbitrator appointed to decide the value of the Mets franchise was a man named Robert Starkey (no relation, as far as I can tell to Richard Starkey, a.k.a Ringo Starr).  Mr. Starkey’s valuation did not please Doubleday:
Doubleday initiated the process that sent the sale to an appraiser, but when that appraiser, Bob Starkey, came back with his supposedly binding decision that the club was worth $391 million, Doubleday was furious. Last month he threatened to sue, suggesting that Major League Baseball and Wilpon had conspired to deflate the value of the club.  (Daily News, July 25, 2002)
Under that appraisal, after team debt was factored in, Doubleday stood to receive only $137.9 million for his entire stake in the team, which was lower than forecasts in the media which expected Doubleday’s take to be around $200 million. When Doubleday balked at the price, Fred Wilpon sued him to compel him sell his share of the team in accordance with the terms of the contract.  I’ll let the New York Times, in an article published at the time, explain:
''Now that the appraisal has been performed, Doubleday, unhappy with the result, seeks to renege on his contractual obligation,'' Wilpon's seven-page complaint contends, ''and has indicated his intention not to abide by the appraisal and not to transfer his interest in the team.'' (NY Times, July 12, 2002)
Doubleday counter-sued, challenging the independence of the appraiser and calling the entire process a "sham."

As an observer reading this in 2011, there should be no surprise that Bud Selig's was an important figure in this deal. Today, Fred Wilpon has been called "Selig's closest friend among the baseball owners," no surprise to anyone who has followed the Mets over the last few years (Daily News, Feb. 5, 2011).  But back in 2002, a potential conflict was not quite so clear. Remember, of course, that Doubleday's complaint is that the valuation provided by the "independent" arbitrator, Richard Starkey, was over $100 million too low.  With that in mind, the Times continues:
Doubleday contends that the appraisal by Starkey, who is under contract to Major League Baseball and has done work for the Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers, deflated the Mets' value with faulty methodology.  He has indicated to others that Starkey's independence was suspect because of his ties to Commissioner Bud Selig, the former owner of the Brewers. It was Selig who recommended Starkey for the job.
Interesting, of course, but not conclusive of anything.  However, when viewed in light of the economic climate at the time – and the competing goals of all the people involved – there becomes a much clearer picture.  The New York Post, of all news organizations, may have connected all the dots for us back on August 7, 2002, when they took a look at what the Wilpon v. Doubleday suit could do to Bud Selig and to baseball, which was currently in the midst of a labor dispute.  In their abstract [5] they explain:
If the court rules in favor of Doubleday, [Bud Selig]'s credibility will be shot from coast to coast... Many in baseball shook their heads in disbelief that Doubleday agreed to [MLB mediator Richard] Starkey, knowing his relationship with Selig and knowing that in the year of labor strife, Doubleday was playing with fire...
Why would Selig want the Mets undervalued, besides wanting to cozy up to Wilpon and assuring his support on all labor matters? Well, for one thing, the lower the value of franchises – as established by an “independent” accountant -- the more leverage that the Commissioner’s Office would have in arguing that player salaries need to be suppressed.

THE VALUE OF THE NEW YORK METS FRANCHISE
It appears that Nelson Doubleday was right about the Mets' valuation being too low.

According to most, the definitive source for franchise valuations in the last twenty years has been the yearly list published by Forbes Magazine.  Each year, Forbes releases a list of Franchise Values, a comprehensive valuation of each team which looks at factors such as location, fan loyalty, and capital investments (ex. stadiums). 

This past year, the Mets were valued at $747 million,a sum which was reduced in light of the Mets struggles both on and off the field in the last two seasons.  The Mets value – even excluding the enormously valuable SNY -- was $912 million back in 2009.  But what does this have to do with Nelson Doubleday?
At first glance, the $391 million valuation that Starkey arrived at for the Mets may not have appeared to have been enormously out of line.    Compared to other baseball franchise sales in the early 2000's, the Mets valuation fit in nicely.
2002: Mets $391 million
2002: Red Sox $700 million (*included 80% stake in NESN)
2002: Marlins $158 million
2002: Expos $120 million (purchased by Major League Baseball)
(source, UPenn Wharton Research)
Add to this the very commonly held notion in the media at the time that baseball was in decline, and with league wide attendance generally stagnant despite the addition of four new franchises (COL, FLA, ARI, TB), and you can see why speculators might not be betting on baseball franchise values. (source)  In light of baseball’s perceived struggled, an outside observer may be able to understand why franchise values were lower than what you might otherwise expect.

Even so, back in 2002, the Mets were valued by Forbes at a healthy $482 million, about a hundred million dollars more than the figure suggested by Starkey.  It is also almost identical to the the figure suggested by Doubleday and allegedly offered by Cablevision to purchase the team.  The Mets had been valued at $249 million in 1999, but appreciated a whopping 29% in one season. (link).  Skewing those numbers even further is that the late 90's were a strange time for these kinds of franchise valuations.  In fact, a look at the top five franchises that year, the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, and Colorado Rockies -- indicates that there was a healthy hysteria about revenue sharing.  If the value Forbes came up with for the Mets was wrong, the odds are that it was too low in light of these concerns. 

Wilpon, of course, supported the Starkey’s number -- but his view of the value of the franchise today is much more bullish.  In the now-infamous article written by Jeffrey Toobin for the New Yorker (the one in which he said Wright was “not a superstar,” among other things), Wilpon had the following to say about the value of his franchise:
Today, as Wilpon negotiates with possible investors, he says it’s clear that the team is worth more than a billion dollars. “There’s one National League franchise in New York,” he said. “Fifty years from now, there’s going to be one National League franchise in New York. That’s a very valuable thing.”  New Yorker, May 30, 2011 
One person who would certainly agree that the Mets are healthy and valuable would be Fred Wilpon’s close friend Bud Selig.  But it doesn’t require too thorough of an examination to appreciate how drastically both men’s characterizations as to the financial health of the franchise has changed over the last decade, even in the face of a nation-wide recession

LABOR STRIFE AFFECTED THE SALE OF THE METS
As mentioned above, back in 2001 when Wilpon and Doubleday were in the midst of their ownership battle, there were some questions about the financial strength of the league.  You may recall that in the winter of 2001, baseball owners voted in favor of contracting two teams from the league.  That decision initiated a firestorm, both in baseball and in politics in general.  Thereafter Selig was entangled in hearings in front of Congress, subpoenaed by Attorneys General, and MLB was the subject of a slew of legal injunctions.
It was Selig’s contention at that time – as baseball’s labor agreement was expiring --  that baseball was broke.  Flat broke.  Selig was specific, too, saying in 2002:
Commissioner Bud Selig recently told the Los Angeles Times that without major changes in Major League Baseball's economic structure, "I would say six to eight [teams] can't exist another year, another year and a half. We're talking about the immediate future. There's a lot of clubs that simply can't survive the status quo."  (Source: ESPN)
It was a number that was absurd in 2002.  It is even more absurd today. 

But not everyone agreed with Selig’s assessment of the league.  Doug Pappas, the chairman of SABR’s Business of Baseball Committee [6] and writer for Baseball Prospectus had this to say in an article published in December of 2001:
According to the commissioner, MLB somehow managed to lose $519 million in 2001 despite record revenues of more than $3.5 billion. This claim was met with derision by virtually all independent observers. They note that franchise values have not fallen, and that even the owners of "failing" teams like the Expos and Marlins won't sell out unless they can remain in baseball with some other team.
Pappas continues, in April of 2002, in outlining the inexplicable gap between Selig’s valuations and the ones developed by Forbes.
Add Forbes to the ever-growing list of those who don't believe MLB's cries of poverty… While MLB claims operating losses of $232 million in 2001, Forbes estimates that the 30 teams turned a collective profit of $76.7 million. That's a difference of more than $10 million per team… All told, the difference between Selig's valuations and Forbes's is about $1.5 billion--$50 million per team, or an additional $600 million of debt which would be allowed if MLB used the Forbes numbers instead of its own arbitrary "values."

This bears repeating: an independent expert analyst, with no stake in the results of its analysis, concluded that MLB's 2001 operating profits were $300 million higher than reported by Commissioner Selig, and that MLB's franchises are worth a collective $1.5 billion more than suggested by the Commissioner's valuation formula.  (Baseball Prospectus, April 3, 2002)
 
If you are interested in the details, I definitely recommend that you click through and read the archive that Baseball Prospectus’s made public on the topic.  But the point made by Pappas, Forbes, Congress and others at the time is crystal clear – baseball was MUCH healthier than Selig and the rest of the Commissioner’s Office was letting on. 

Perhaps Nelson Doubleday’s claims that baseball conspired with Starkey to “manufacture phantom operating losses” and that the Commissioner’s office was “in cahoots” with Wilpon were not so far off after all.

THE HEALTH OF MLB TODAY
If you’re not convinced by the above independent appraisals, how about Fred Wilpon’s position that the Mets are a BILLION dollar franchise today?  And don’t just take my word or Fred Wilpon’s word for it – but how about Bud Selig, the same man who tried to convince the world that baseball was bankrupt?
When asked right before Game 7 of the World Series the other night about MLB’s $25 million loan to the Mets, he made some very optimistic comments.  When asked whether he was concerned about the loan – which is now a few days short of being a year old – Selig said that “I do have a lot of concerns but I am happy to say that the Mets aren’t one of them.”[7]

As for the health of baseball in general, Selig said “the game has never been more popular.  There isn’t any doubt about that, any criteria you want to use, it’s more popular than ever.  But it’s impact is great than it’s ever been and there is no question about that.”  [New York Post, October 29, 2011]

According to Forbes, baseball is financially stronger than ever.  In the preface to their most recent list of Most Valuable Teams, they wrote:
Baseball has emerged from the recession with a big bang.  The average MLB franchise is now worth $523 million, an all-time high and 7% more than last year. All of the league’s teams rose in value except for three… Strong attendance and local television ratings boosted the values for [many] teams … [while] 73 million fans showed up at the ballpark last summer, which was the sixth highest total of all-time and down just 0.4% from [the year before].
The only threat, financially, to baseball at the current time seems to be with our very own New York Mets.  In fact, between the problems of the Mets and the Dodgers, baseball’s revenue sharing pool dropped for the first time since the current system was put in place in 2002.  In what should come as no surprise, however, Selig does not view the Mets a “concern”. [8]

THE FUTURE OF METS’ OWNERSHIP
So long as Bud Selig is commissioner of baseball, it is appears that the Wilpon family will remain in full control of the Mets for as long as they want to be.  How else can we explain the Mets spurning David Einhorn as a minority investor?  The fact that they get interest-free loans without a maturity date has to help:
Selig approved a $25 million emergency loan to the Mets and has supported the team’s efforts to attract a capital infusion from a minority investor. Wilpon was appointed by Selig to baseball’s executive council and Peter Stamos, a partner of the owner in the Sterling Stamos Capital Management hedge fund, is chairman of the MLB Investment Advisory Board. (Bloomberg)
This is particularly interesting in light of the hard-line Selig has taken with Frank McCourt and the Dodgers, to whom Selig would not even approve a new television deal which may have saved the Dodgers from bankruptcy.  The Wall Street Journal characterized it similarly, opining that Selig “pulled nearly every lever within his power to force” McCourt to sell the organization.

As part of the ongoing Dodger saga, Selig installed a monitor to oversee the team’s operations and, in June, it was reported, he refused to approve a new TV contract that would have given McCourt enough cash to likely keep the franchise.   The Dodgers filed for Chapter 11 protection on June 27, and Frank McCourt agreed in late October to sell the team at auction.  In an article called “Selig Bends Rules to Fit”, Marc Ganis puts it in a nutshell for us: “MLB gave so much power to Selig that some perceive a system with a lot of subjectivity and playing favorites.” (Bloomberg)

As far as our Mets go, the Wilpons must be confident, as the recent news out of Mets camp is that they are seeking a new kind of minority investor.  The Mets have been seeking multiple, smaller, minority investors to purchase chunks of $20 to $30 million to try and replace the $200 million investment that they shunned from Einhorn.  However, the investment comes with significant strings attached:
Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon told Adam Rubin of ESPN New York on Monday that the process of selling minority blocks was “going very well.” However, since there is no path to ownership, this latest development is an indication that potential investors need more incentive than owning a tiny piece of the team for vanity purposes. (Hardball Talk at NBC)
If there NO PATH TO OWNERSHIP from these investments, why would someone invest?  Well, according to reports, the Mets are offering 3% interest.  That’s right, 3% interest (or the option of retaining your 2% to 3% stake[9]).  The Mets, in exchange for a ton of your money, without offering you any ability to grow your ownership stake in the team, will provide you with nothing more than a nominal amount of interest.  For reference, a ten-year municipal bond returns around 2%, tax-free.  Yet the Wilpons believe that someone would prefer to buy what is essentially a bond from an organization whose financial troubles have been front-and-center in the news media for a year.

Ultimately, the story of the Wilpon ascent to power as owners of the New York Mets franchise has been a long and twisting one.  With some shrewd negotiation, some legal wrangling, and some significant help from his great friend Bud Selig, Fred Wilpon has taken an investment of a few million dollars and turned it into a billion-dollar empire, all while Nelson Doubleday’s equivalent investment of $40.5 million in 1986 returned him only approximately $150 million over 15 years.  I'm sure one of my great MBA-possessing friends will correct me, but my back-of-the-envelope calculations indicates a yearly return of around $7.3 million per year for Doubleday, and in the neighborhood of $32 million per year for Wilpon.
I know this is long, but if you are interested in some additional reading, it is alleged that the Madoff-Wilpon relationship extended beyond simply the returns on their investments.  According to an interesting article by the New York Times in March of this year (NY Times)it is alleged in the Madoff Lawsuit that Madoff may have actually loaned the Wilpons the money they needed when making large capital investments in the early 2000’s.  Or even if the loans never took place, that a close relationship with a hedge fund such as Madoff’s allowed the Wilpons the leverage they needed to obtain favorable terms on their commercial debt.  It is an interesting additional twist to all that we already know of the scheme's impact.
Not everyone is optimistic about the Wilpons’ fortunes moving forward.  One of my favorite Mets writers, Howard Megdal, outlines some of the hard realities:
[The Mets] still owe $430 million against the team, with the principal of that loan due in June 2014, and another $450 million against SNY, with the principal of that loan due in June 2015 [in addition to the Madoff lawsuit] . . . [further], the Mets have a revenue-sharing payment due to Major League Baseball by the end of November of between $15-20 million, and owe around $26 million in their twice-annual debt payments on Citi Field to the city of New York on December 15. (Capital New York, November 2011).
However, despite all of the above troubles, I wouldn’t bet on the Wilpons ceding control of the franchise any time soon.  They were smart enough to gain control of the Mets in the first place, they have a very good friend in the highest of places, and – if their negotiations with potential investors are any indication – they are confident about their financial situation.  With Fred’s long stated goal being turning over the team to his son, Jeff, I expect that we will not be seeing any wholesale changes for a long time.

  
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Brian Mangan is an attorney who lives in New York.  He is a lifelong Mets fan and a former (and hopefully future) Mets season ticket holder. 

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[1]  It's worth noting that Einhorn, though spurned by the Mets, still has baseball on his mind.  Courtesy of the The Wall Street Journal:
"Baseball was clearly still on Mr. Einhorn's mind on Monday, when he joked that he missed watching one of his favorite teams, the Milwaukee Brewers, take on the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Championship to work on his presentation on "the other kind of brewers," Green Mountain.  "The bulls believe the Green Mountain growth story is still in the early innings," he said, noting investors' confidence in the company's surging revenues."
[2]  Last year, Mr. Doubleday was ready to sell 80 percent of the team to Cablevision for $400 million-a deal that could have shielded his children, who are uninvolved in the Mets’ affairs, from huge estate taxes. But Mr. Wilpon scuttled the deal, out of a concern that, as a minority partner once again, there would be no assurance that he would still run the team.  (New York Observer, October 30, 2000)

[3] Source:  Daily News

[4]  Two of the people who talked about Wilpon's pending purchase said Wilpon was expected to pay Doubleday about $200 million and would give him an additional $25 million if the Mets moved into a new stadium. Times, June 22, 2001 
  
[5] Full access to the article is not available for free.  Link

[6] Tragically, Mr. Pappas passed away in 2004 at the age of 42.  

[7]  Another of Selig’s contentions is that baseball, aside from being broke, was a broken system because
"During the past decade, Baseball has experienced a terribly disturbing trend. To put it simply, an increasing number of our Clubs have become unable to successfully compete for their respective Division Championships -- thereby making post-season appearances -- let alone post-season success -- an impossibility."  In November 2000, Commissioner Bud Selig solemnly advised Congress, "At the start of spring training, there no longer exists hope and faith for the fans of more than half of our 30 clubs."
(Congressional testimony, 11/21/00)  Unfortunately, that fact is no less true today than when he first stated it. (Chart here)

[8]  There is one entity, aside from MLB itself, over whom no controvery exists as to whether they are succeeding or failing:  Bud Selig.  I did not know this until I looked up the numbers over at Cot’s Contracts, but over the last twenty years that he has been Commissioner, Bud Selig has seen his own personal salary skyrocket.  From a lofty and generous salary of $1 million back in 1993, to an outsized yet perhaps justifiable $2.5 million in 1998, Bud Selig’s salary in the last publicly available season was $17.5 million dollars.  That’s a number that, although absurd on its face, also dwarfs those of the commissioners of other major sports (link: http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2009/02/20090202/This-Weeks-News/Seligs-Pay-Climbs-Past-$18-Million.aspx). Baseball is healthy indeed.  (source: Cot's Contracts)

Friday, September 30, 2011

An Ideal Change of Scenery: Jason Bay for Carl Crawford

I find that most proposals for 'change of scenery' trades are silly.  Most fans of teams think that an opposing club will pay full value for their failed prospect in hopes that they may regain their former luster.  Fans clamor for their General Manager to pry struggling players from opposing teams for pennies, when no such deal is on the table.  (Think I'm kidding?  Take a minute to google a guy like Alex Gordon and see what you come up with... here is an example of how he was hotly pursued last year: link)

However, not all proposals to get a player a change of scenery are bad ones -- in fact, there are plenty of scenarios where getting a player out of town might benefit both parties.  However, the price for the team dumping the loser or receiving the once-hyped prospect will be steep.

Enough beating around the bush.  My idea?  The Mets trade Jason Bay to the Red Sox for Carl Crawford and a little cash.

The match could not be better, and I am amazed that it took me so long to see this.  Let's start with the basics on the two players.

As you know, Jason Bay has struggled as a Met.  He posted a .259 average with 6 HR and an 749 OPS in 2010, and followed that up with a .245 average, 12 HR, and a 703 OPS this year, missing time both years with injuries.  Factoring in defense and baserunning, Bay was worth an astoundingly terrible 0.7 WAR this year.

Carl Crawford's welcome to Red Sox Nation may have been even worse.  Crawford this year put up a .255 average and 11 HR, but drew almost nothing in the way of walks and posted an OPS of 694.  Crawford made up some of the gap with superior defense, but also posted an awful 0.4 WAR.

Jason Bay is owed $16MM in 2012, $16MM in 2013, and has a vesting option for $17MM in 2014 for a total of $49MM over the next three years (or $35 over two years).  Crawford is owed the outrageous sum of $122MM over the next six years.  Both contracts look like horrible albatrosses.

Why would these teams make the swap?

Why The Red Sox Will Do It
1.  Carl Crawford is a dead man walking in Boston.   His horrible season for the Sox, combined with his horrific play on the last hit of Boston's season, seals his fate.  The gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands in Boston is audible all the way here in Queens.

2.  Carl Crawford is not a good fit for Fenway.  Why on earth did Boston sign this guy in the first place?  In addition to the above, and generic concerns that he may not be cut out for a big market, the Sox took a player who derives a TON of his value from his speed and defense and put him in the smallest left field in the entire baseball universe.  They added him to a lineup which already had bona-fide top of the order hitters in Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Gonzalez.  Crawford is an afterthought.

3.  Jason Bay has already THRIVED in Boston.  Maybe Bay is a different player now, but wouldn't it be worth it for them to see if they can roll the dice and at least get some value from Bay, rather than with a guy like Crawford who has been placed in a position where he can do nothing but fail?

Why The Mets Will Do It
1.  Jason Bay is a dead man walking in Queens.  Back to back terrible seasons.  Ending the season on the bench with a "sinus infection," in addition to huge chunks of both seasons.  And now the pressure on Bay will become even worse -- all hope for a bounce back is gone, and with back to back losing seasons, the fans will begin to turn on the player with the largest contract.

2.  Bay is a terrible fit for Citi Field.  The spacious left field, the high fences, and the low-run scoring environment have conspired to make this the worst case scenario for Bay.  Granted, Bay did not hit well on the road this season either, but the change of scenery back to Boston may help him.

3.  There is HOPE for Carl Crawford, where for Bay there is little to none.  As has been pointed out, Carl Crawford was bad, not terrible, for the Sox since starting the season horrendously.  After beginning the start of play on May 23rd batting .215/.249/.298, Crawford hit a poor but improved .280/.313/.474 from then until the end of the season, over 352 plate appearances.

Bottom Line?

Both players have enormous contracts and have underperformed greatly.  Both players are bad fits for their current clubs, and have worn out their welcomes. And it just so happens that both players play left field.

"But Brian, why would the Sox trade for a player who is older and just as horrible?"  The Red Sox, as we all know, are further along on the success cycle right now.  If they had Jason Bay in left field instead of Carl Crawford, they may well have won an additional game and made the postseason this year.  With that in mind, taking a chance on Jason Bay, with the shorter contract, with the potential that he may regain some of his prior Boston success (where he posted OPSes of 897 and 921), makes sense.  It helps, also, that Bay fits comfortably down in the order as opposed to the speedy Crawford.  And remember - Bay will only be 33 next year.

"But Brian, why would the Mets take on the longer contract for the player who was worse last year?"  A few reasons.  As I mentioned above, there is hope that Crawford may succeed in Flushing while there is no such hope for Bay.  Furthermore, Crawford is a fantastic fit for Citi Field -- he might even be able to play center field and give the Mets the answer they are looking for at that position so they can open up left field for someone like Lucas Duda, Nick Evans, or someone else.  Even moreso, Crawford can hit toward the top of the Mets lineup, where his few talents would not be as wasted as they are in Boston.  And he'll fit perfectly in the low scoring National League East... not to mention distract a little from the flurry of negativity that will occur when Reyes departs. 

You know you've struck a good deal when people on both sides find it hard to pull the trigger.  The one thing that I think the Mets would require to execute this deal is a little financial assistance in years 2014-2017 when Jason Bay's contract is expired and Crawford is still on the books.

Proposal:  Mets trade Jason Bay to the Red Sox for Carl Crawford and $5MM in each of the years 2014-2017.  The Mets end up with Crawford on a 6/$107MM deal and the Sox get Bay for 3/$49MM plus a future payment of $15MM.

Each team takes on some risk, each team gets an asset from the other that is more likely to succeed for them than for their current team.  Neither team wants anything to do with these guys -- so why not put them in a position where they may be able to succeed.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts on this:  Is this deal a good match?  Would one team love this idea and another team hate it?  Are there other factors that I haven't considered?

Friday, September 02, 2011

Marginal Value and Why I Don't Care if the Mets Bring Back Reyes


Quickly, who has been the most valuable Met this year?

Has it been Jose Reyes and his league-leading .336 batting average? Did Carlos Beltran have that distinction while he was here? Has David Wright's surge since coming back put him into the discussion?

No, no, and no -- if you are talking money, that is.

When you take into account the salary they are earning, the most valuable Met this season has been none other than Daniel Murphy. No, he does not have the highest WAR of any Met this year -- that distinction goes to Reyes -- but he has provided the most value at the least cost. That makes him the most valuable.

Below is a table with a majority of the Mets regulars, sorted from the highest WAR per dollar to lowest:


[I really hope you can read that.  I will provide the text version of that chart at the bottom of the post.]

Anybody with access to baseball-reference or fangraphs or who watches the game can tell you to a reasonable degree of certainty who is the most valuable player on the field.  But baseball is a business -- just like the other major sports -- and even though you and I might bleed blue-and-orange and think flags fly forever, for those who make the decisions it all comes down to money.  It's not that winning is irrelevant -- but winning almost always depends on having a strong financial position from which you can make moves in the future.

There is a very good (and very mathematically heavy and boring) article over at Baseball Prospectus which takes a look at the true costs and benefits to signing free agents.  In it, the author discusses the pricing of free agents (he calls it "the marginal cost of acquiring a player's contribution on the free-agent market") while also factoring in things such as the length of the deal (ex: a player gives up dollars in the first year for a guarantee of a longer contract at a lower average annual value) and the draft picks lost as compensation.  He provides a great example (I have edited out most of the math):
Which brings us to this next example, where the Tigers surrendered the 19th pick in the 2010 draft to sign Jose Valverde to a two-year deal worth $14 million, which would be worth $22 million if the Tigers exercise a 2012 club option. Ignoring the draft-pick compensation, Valverde’s contract would look pretty good ... he would be worth $18.2 million if you ignore the draft picks.  However, the 19th pick would ... 3.3 wins over the first six years, which ... is $10.5 million in foregone wins.
If you go to fangraphs, you'll see that at the bottom of each page they have a section for each player entitled "value."  In that section, there is listed the players salary, right next to a column which says "dollars."  The dollars column roughly amounts to how much a player providing that much value would cost on the free agent market.  Jose Reyes, for example, has posted 5.3 WAR so far this season, while the market in baseball generally values 5.3 WAR at a price of $23.9 million dollars.  Daniel Murphy, on the other hand, has provided 3.2 WAR which is valued at $14.3 million dollars.

Jose has been better, but Murphy has provided more bang for his buck.

So herein lies the problem:  once Jose Reyes - or any player - becomes eligible to test the free agent market, they are going to find someone to pay them what they are worth.  Or as is often the case, more than they are worth.  At that point, unless there is some kind of hometown discount being provided, that player is no more or less useful to your team than any other.  In fact, he may be LESS useful to your team specifically because you owned him to begin with -- by not allowing him to leave, you fail to get draft pick compensation that you would otherwise have.

For example, if the Mets were confronted with the ability to sign Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez, as free agents this winter, my only preference would become who would provide the better DEAL for our team.  I love Reyes, he is my favorite player.  But I'd rather see my team win without Reyes than lose with him.[1]

Back in 2005, when the Mets were on the precipice of their ill-fated dynasty, the world belonged to them.  In David Wright and Jose Reyes, the Mets had lucked into two all-star position players at almost exactly the same time.  Between 2006 and 2008, Reyes posted 6.1, 5.8, and 6.4 WAR.  In the same time span, Wright posted 5.2, 8.9, and 7.1 WAR.  All of those were All-Star campaigns, and in the case of Wright, what had a good argument as an MVP season.
But why did the Mets win so many games from 2006-2008?  It wasn't just because they had Wright and Reyes -- they still have Wright and Reyes.  It was because in 2006, Wright and Reyes made a COMBINED salary of less than a million dollars.  In 2007, they earned around $4.5 million dollars.  In 2008, they raked in less than ten million dollars.  As a whole, they earned approximately $15 million dollars while providing the Mets with value equivalent to what they would have to pay a free agent approximately $163 million dollars for.  That's $150 million dollars of profit.

So what did the Mets do when they had two, young, cost-controlled mega-stars?  They used the extra money that they had to PAY free agents.  They brought in Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado, and Billy Wagner and so many others.  And for that stretch of time, the Mets were very, very good.  But when the Mets failed to win it all, it wasn't just a sadness that could be remedied next year -- it was the end of an era.  The window was, and remains, closed, for the Wright-Reyes Mets to be anything special.

Take an example of another very good team, last year's Texas Rangers.  They knew that they had a good, cheap nucleus of talent in Josh Hamilton ($5.5M), Ian Kinsler ($4.2M), Nelson Cruz ($440K), and others.  They could afford to pay free agent money to players that they thought would push them over the top -- like Vladimir Guerrero.

Even big market teams like the Red Sox cannot win without cost-controlled, home grown stars.  The Red Sox have players like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard and Jon Lester under cost control -- so they could trade for Adrian Gonzalez and give him a lucrative contract extension, and they could pick up David Ortiz' contract option, and they could afford to make moves even with John Lackey's contract burdening them.

As for us, with Reyes and Wright reaching the point in their careers where they need to be paid what they are worth, it doesn't really matter if they are Mets or not-- outside of our weak, silly, baseball-fan hearts.  They will still be good players, but they will be no better for us than any other roll of the dice that we make on the free agent market.  Can a team built around a Wright and Reyes who are being paid market value still win?  Of course they can.  But the deck is no longer stacked in our favor.

For the next few years, the Mets are going to have to stand by and watch young, practically free superstars like Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Domonic Brown, Bryce Harper, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Antonio Bastardo, Julio Teheran, Jonny Venters and a host of others provide All-Star if not superstar value for our rivals.  The question is -- do the Mets have reinforcements?  Can the Mets reload?

All of this, finally, brings us back to the table that we posted at the beginning of this article.  Although the Mets don't have any surefire stud prospects waiting in the wings to be our next Wright or Reyes, the Mets certainly do have a lot of cheap players who can provide value in 2012 and beyond. You don't have to be a stats nerd or sabermatrician to understand that having cheap players who can step into roles on a winning club has value.  You just may be surprised to learn how much.

Another way of looking at the above table is to look at the value provided beyond the salary they were paid.[2]  Sorting this way, Murphy is again the most valuable Met.  In third, however, is Jose Reyes, who has provided over $11 million in surplus value despite earning $11 million on this year's contract.  All in all, the Mets have 12 players who have provided more than $2 million in surplus value to the team, and even better, all of whom (except Chris Capuano and Reyes) remain under team control next year.

Add to these names (Murphy, Niese, Tejada, Davis, Dickey, Turner, Duda, Thole, Pagan, Parnell) the list of players we discussed last week in our Organization Report, and you've got yourself an excellent core of players to build around.

Would I like the Mets to resign Reyes?  Absolutely.  Would the Mets be a better team on the field for doing so?  Absolutely -- there is no player out there who can replace the value of a stud, in his prime, All-Star shortstop.  Will it make the Mets better suited financially in the future to compete with the other teams in the NL East?  Hard to say.

-----------------
[1]
The fangraphs values, and the generally accepted practice of attaching a dollar value to the WAR provided by a free agent, are misleading in that relative to the entire pool of players playing major league baseball, all free agents are overpaid.  As the salaries for players with less major league service time are strictly fixed by the rules and by arbitration, they can only wait for their free agent payday. 


[2]
The Top 12 Mets in providing value beyond their salary:







Value Beyond Salary WAR per $
IF Murphy $13,562,000.00 7.58
SP Niese $11,784,000.00 6.19
IF Reyes $11,724,000.00 0.47
IF Tejada $5,718,000.00 3.50
IF Davis $5,686,000.00 3.24
SP Dickey $5,179,000.00 0.76
SP Capuano $5,055,000.00 1.00
IF Turner $3,970,000.00 2.50
OF Duda $3,956,000.00 2.42
IF Thole $3,513,000.00 2.14
OF Pagan $2,618,000.00 0.40
RP Parnell $2,188,500.00 1.38