2011-2012 Non-Tenders: Slim Pickings

A huge shout out to the estimable MLB Trade Rumors site for putting together the list of the 29 players non-tendered by their teams this offseason and who are now free agents.  In the past I have enjoyed putting together a comprehensive list of non-tenders and free agents who I thought would make sense for the Mets -- unfortunately, due to time, I will only be able to review a few this time around. 

Without further adieu, a reproduction of the entire list, and a highlight of the players I like:

Catchers (5)

     Chris Gimenez, Koyie Hill, Ronny Paulino, Eli Whiteside, Jason Jaramillo

 Second basemen (2)

     Jeff Keppinger, Will Rhymes

 Shortstops (1)

     Pedro Ciriaco

 Outfielders (5)

     Mike Baxter, Cole Garner, Jeremy Hermida, Luke Scott, Ryan Spilborghs

 Utility infielders (2)

     Brooks Conrad, Ryan Theriot

 Starting Pitchers (2)

     Jo-Jo Reyes, Joe Saunders

 Right-handed relievers (7)

     Fabio Castillo, Dan Cortes, Willie Eyre, Clay Hensley, Peter Moylan, Micah Owings, Andy Sonnanstine

 Left-handed relievers (5)

     Rich Hill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Aaron Laffey, Jose Mijares, Doug Slaten

The players that I select will be selected in light of what their projected cost might be and the needs of our squad.  For that reason, you won't see guys like Hong-Chih Kuo (too expensive), Joe Saunders (too expensive), Micah Owings (will likely return to current team), or Mike Baxter (just non-tendered him) on this list.

#1 - 2B Will Rhymes

Rhymes, aside from having a great name, is 28 years old and was non-tendered by Detroit this year after a disappointing season where he hit .235/.323/.271 in 99 at bats.  Rhymes is a very disciplined hitter -- he made contact on 92.6% of his swings in the majors -- and plays passable defense at second base (-3.6 UZR/150 in 600 innings).  

Rhymes is not going to light anyone's hair on fire, but he has hit .305 and .306 in Triple-A over the last two seasons, and posted an OPS of around 770.  In my book, he's worthy of bringing in as an non-roster invite to compete with Murphy at second base in light of the lack of other options (and don't say Jeff Keppinger to me, as his defense appears to be falling off a cliff and he's got no value if he isn't batting .320).

#2 - OF Jeremy Hermida

You know who this guy is.  And I say, why the hell not.  What happened to Jeremy Hermida is one of the great mysteries of modern times (along with Lastings Milledge, Elvis, and Pop Tarts) but even so he has been moderately valuable over the last few years.

Hermida has remained an average defender in right field for his career, and has posted excellent UZR's in his last two seasons in right (approximately +30 UZR/150 in a small sample of 275 innings).  Although he batted .190 in his last stint in the majors, he possesses a career 749 major league OPS and is only 27 years of age.  Given regular playing time in the minors for Cincinnati, Hermida put up a .319 average and 924 OPS.  

If Hermida can play good defense and hit .250, he'll definitely provide positive value, provided how tarnished his stock has become.  Hermida will likely latch on somewhere as a non-roster invite and make the major league minimum.  He is an adequate fifth outfielder option with some upside (I would start him every day in Triple-A).

#3 - RP Clay Hensley

I realize the Mets have added epic depth to their bullpen, but in terms of above non-tenders who they can afford who have a little upside, Hensley fits the bill.  Hensley, like the others, struggled last year, posting a 5.19 ERA and -0.1 WAR. 

However, Hensley is also the possessor of a 3.94 career ERA and is coming off a season where he posted a 2.16 ERA (2.87 FIP) for the Marlins in 2010.  His peripherals supported the performance, as Hensley struck out 9.24 batters per nine innings in his season-long dominant performance.

Hensley missed time with injury last season, but provided that he is healthy, would be a great addition for the Mets to keep or to trade at the deadline as I've heard so many suggest about our other bullpen acquisitions (though seriously people, this does not happen as often as you think).

#4 - SP Rich Hill

Hill had a breakthrough performance in 2007, striking out 183 batters and posting a WHIP of only 1.19.  Unfortunately for him, he's been derailed by injuries (bad) and forced to play for the Orioles (worse).

His last four seasons, Hill has pitched only 89 major league innings, and struggled in almost all of them and underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year.  He still had the "stuff" the last two years before going down with injury, so he's an intriguing flier.  He won't contribute to the squad in 2012, but he may be worthy of a look for late next season or for 2013.

I Also Like...

Peter Moylan and Luke Scott, should the price be right.

Marginal Value and Why I Don't Care if the Mets Bring Back Reyes

Quickly, who has been the most valuable Met this year?

Has it been Jose Reyes and his league-leading .336 batting average? Did Carlos Beltran have that distinction while he was here? Has David Wright's surge since coming back put him into the discussion?

No, no, and no -- if you are talking money, that is.

When you take into account the salary they are earning, the most valuable Met this season has been none other than Daniel Murphy. No, he does not have the highest WAR of any Met this year -- that distinction goes to Reyes -- but he has provided the most value at the least cost. That makes him the most valuable.

Below is a table with a majority of the Mets regulars, sorted from the highest WAR per dollar to lowest:


[I really hope you can read that.  I will provide the text version of that chart at the bottom of the post.]

Anybody with access to baseball-reference or fangraphs or who watches the game can tell you to a reasonable degree of certainty who is the most valuable player on the field.  But baseball is a business -- just like the other major sports -- and even though you and I might bleed blue-and-orange and think flags fly forever, for those who make the decisions it all comes down to money.  It's not that winning is irrelevant -- but winning almost always depends on having a strong financial position from which you can make moves in the future.

There is a very good (and very mathematically heavy and boring) article over at Baseball Prospectus which takes a look at the true costs and benefits to signing free agents.  In it, the author discusses the pricing of free agents (he calls it "the marginal cost of acquiring a player's contribution on the free-agent market") while also factoring in things such as the length of the deal (ex: a player gives up dollars in the first year for a guarantee of a longer contract at a lower average annual value) and the draft picks lost as compensation.  He provides a great example (I have edited out most of the math):

Which brings us to this next example, where the Tigers surrendered the 19^th pick in the 2010 draft to sign Jose Valverde to a two-year deal worth $14 million, which would be worth $22 million if the Tigers exercise a 2012 club option. Ignoring the draft-pick compensation, Valverde’s contract would look pretty good ... he would be worth $18.2 million if you ignore the draft picks.  However, the 19^th pick would ... 3.3 wins over the first six years, which ... is $10.5 million in foregone wins.

If you go to fangraphs, you'll see that at the bottom of each page they have a section for each player entitled "value."  In that section, there is listed the players salary, right next to a column which says "dollars."  The dollars column roughly amounts to how much a player providing that much value would cost on the free agent market.  Jose Reyes, for example, has posted 5.3 WAR so far this season, while the market in baseball generally values 5.3 WAR at a price of $23.9 million dollars.  Daniel Murphy, on the other hand, has provided 3.2 WAR which is valued at $14.3 million dollars.

Jose has been better, but Murphy has provided more bang for his buck.

So herein lies the problem:  once Jose Reyes - or any player - becomes eligible to test the free agent market, they are going to find someone to pay them what they are worth.  Or as is often the case, more than they are worth.  At that point, unless there is some kind of hometown discount being provided, that player is no more or less useful to your team than any other.  In fact, he may be LESS useful to your team specifically because you owned him to begin with -- by not allowing him to leave, you fail to get draft pick compensation that you would otherwise have.

For example, if the Mets were confronted with the ability to sign Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez, as free agents this winter, my only preference would become who would provide the better DEAL for our team.  I love Reyes, he is my favorite player.  But I'd rather see my team win without Reyes than lose with him.[1]

Back in 2005, when the Mets were on the precipice of their ill-fated dynasty, the world belonged to them.  In David Wright and Jose Reyes, the Mets had lucked into two all-star position players at almost exactly the same time.  Between 2006 and 2008, Reyes posted 6.1, 5.8, and 6.4 WAR.  In the same time span, Wright posted 5.2, 8.9, and 7.1 WAR.  All of those were All-Star campaigns, and in the case of Wright, what had a good argument as an MVP season.
But why did the Mets win so many games from 2006-2008?  It wasn't just because they had Wright and Reyes -- they still have Wright and Reyes.  It was because in 2006, Wright and Reyes made a COMBINED salary of less than a million dollars.  In 2007, they earned around $4.5 million dollars.  In 2008, they raked in less than ten million dollars.  As a whole, they earned approximately $15 million dollars while providing the Mets with value equivalent to what they would have to pay a free agent approximately $163 million dollars for.  That's $150 million dollars of profit.

So what did the Mets do when they had two, young, cost-controlled mega-stars?  They used the extra money that they had to PAY free agents.  They brought in Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado, and Billy Wagner and so many others.  And for that stretch of time, the Mets were very, very good.  But when the Mets failed to win it all, it wasn't just a sadness that could be remedied next year -- it was the end of an era.  The window was, and remains, closed, for the Wright-Reyes Mets to be anything special.

Take an example of another very good team, last year's Texas Rangers.  They knew that they had a good, cheap nucleus of talent in Josh Hamilton ($5.5M), Ian Kinsler ($4.2M), Nelson Cruz ($440K), and others.  They could afford to pay free agent money to players that they thought would push them over the top -- like Vladimir Guerrero.

Even big market teams like the Red Sox cannot win without cost-controlled, home grown stars.  The Red Sox have players like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard and Jon Lester under cost control -- so they could trade for Adrian Gonzalez and give him a lucrative contract extension, and they could pick up David Ortiz' contract option, and they could afford to make moves even with John Lackey's contract burdening them.

As for us, with Reyes and Wright reaching the point in their careers where they need to be paid what they are worth, it doesn't really matter if they are Mets or not-- outside of our weak, silly, baseball-fan hearts.  They will still be good players, but they will be no better for us than any other roll of the dice that we make on the free agent market.  Can a team built around a Wright and Reyes who are being paid market value still win?  Of course they can.  But the deck is no longer stacked in our favor.

For the next few years, the Mets are going to have to stand by and watch young, practically free superstars like Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Domonic Brown, Bryce Harper, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Antonio Bastardo, Julio Teheran, Jonny Venters and a host of others provide All-Star if not superstar value for our rivals.  The question is -- do the Mets have reinforcements?  Can the Mets reload?

All of this, finally, brings us back to the table that we posted at the beginning of this article.  Although the Mets don't have any surefire stud prospects waiting in the wings to be our next Wright or Reyes, the Mets certainly do have a lot of cheap players who can provide value in 2012 and beyond. You don't have to be a stats nerd or sabermatrician to understand that having cheap players who can step into roles on a winning club has value.  You just may be surprised to learn how much.

Another way of looking at the above table is to look at the value provided beyond the salary they were paid.[2]  Sorting this way, Murphy is again the most valuable Met.  In third, however, is Jose Reyes, who has provided over $11 million in surplus value despite earning $11 million on this year's contract.  All in all, the Mets have 12 players who have provided more than $2 million in surplus value to the team, and even better, all of whom (except Chris Capuano and Reyes) remain under team control next year.

Add to these names (Murphy, Niese, Tejada, Davis, Dickey, Turner, Duda, Thole, Pagan, Parnell) the list of players we discussed last week in our Organization Report, and you've got yourself an excellent core of players to build around.

Would I like the Mets to resign Reyes?  Absolutely.  Would the Mets be a better team on the field for doing so?  Absolutely -- there is no player out there who can replace the value of a stud, in his prime, All-Star shortstop.  Will it make the Mets better suited financially in the future to compete with the other teams in the NL East?  Hard to say.

-----------------
[1]
The fangraphs values, and the generally accepted practice of attaching a dollar value to the WAR provided by a free agent, are misleading in that relative to the entire pool of players playing major league baseball, all free agents are overpaid.  As the salaries for players with less major league service time are strictly fixed by the rules and by arbitration, they can only wait for their free agent payday. 


[2]
The Top 12 Mets in providing value beyond their salary:

Value Beyond Salary WAR per $ IF Murphy $13,562,000.00 7.58 SP Niese $11,784,000.00 6.19 IF Reyes $11,724,000.00 0.47 IF Tejada $5,718,000.00 3.50 IF Davis $5,686,000.00 3.24 SP Dickey $5,179,000.00 0.76 SP Capuano $5,055,000.00 1.00 IF Turner $3,970,000.00 2.50 OF Duda $3,956,000.00 2.42 IF Thole $3,513,000.00 2.14 OF Pagan $2,618,000.00 0.40 RP Parnell $2,188,500.00 1.38

Interesting 2011 Free Agents, Part 1 - Infielders

You can read Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 of my series on non-tendered players by clicking the links. Below, I'll profile a few regular free agents that I think would help out the Mets this year.

Seeing as the Mets are, for all intents and purposes, out of contention this year already, they should focus on acquiring younger players who for whatever reason may be entering this off-season as undervalued. The Mets should sweep up as many of these players as possible, and hope they find some success and a niche on the existing roster around our existing stars. We're not looking for a third baseman or shortstop. But we are looking for a second baseman, or a strong right-handed platoon partner or pinch-hitter to play behind Davis.

My favorites from this group include Casey Kotchman, Bill Hall, and Andy LaRoche.

The player's salary from last season is in parentheses next to their names. All information on salaries is courtesy of the invaluable Cot's Contracts.

1B Garrett Atkins (4.5M)
Last year we advocated against picking up Garrett Atkins, and were proven correct as he tanked on a big contract, hitting .214/.276/.286 and playing negative defense. However, Atkins can play 1B and 3B, and posted an OPS of 780 as recently as 2008. He also has an interesting platoon split in his batting based on the position on the field he plays - one which continued last season (albeit small sample size).

Verdict: Would be an excellent minor league contract offer candidate - if he makes the team, backing up at 1B/3B. Unfortunately, despite his right-handedness, he has a reverse platoon split.

1B Willy Aybar (2.6M) (We covered Aybar in a non-tender article)

1B Russell Branyan (2M)
We figured that 2009's second-half swoon for Russell Branyan would keep his value as a free agent down, and it did, as he earned only $2 million despite 31 home runs and an 867 OPS. He returned to earth somewhat but was still pretty good last season, hitting 25 home runs and posting an OPS of 810 between Seattle and Cleveland. According to fangraphs, Branyan has been worth over $20 million to his teams over the last two seasons. Although he hasn't been an atrocious fielder in limited playing time, Branyan is probably tethered to the American League. Even if he weren't, he would not be a fit for a team in the Mets' position, despite being undervalued.

Verdict: Would love to capitalize on the fact he appears to be undervalued, but there doesn't seem to be a spot for him on the Mets unless he is a much better fielder than we realize. If he could play a competent corner outfield, he would be a good complement to Lucas Duda for a spot on the Mets bench.

1B Casey Kotchman (3.51M)
Kotchman is just one of those players that I ALWAYS expect to have a breakout year. He had a promising 2007, followed it up with a lukewarmly encouraging 2008, before cratering in 2009. The 2010 season looked better for Casey early on, but he just cratered in May and June. For the season, his BABIP was .229.

TWO TWENTY NINE.

That number is third-worst among all batters in the majors with at least 450 at bats last season. To be fair, of course, Kotchman's career BABIP is pretty low - only .268. This is because (without any fact-checking or independent research of my own) I expect that BABIP is more of a skill for hitters than people would imagine. For a left-handed hitter, who puts the ball on the ground a lot, and who is slow -- your BABIP is going to stink.

But even in that context, .229 is almost impossibly low. Dan Szymborski recently commented that .210-.230 are the lowest BABIP numbers that we typically see, and those are by weak-hitting pitchers. But when the offense-starved Mariners release you, you know you're pretty bad.

Despite being lefthanded, I'd be interested in taking a flyer on Kotchman. He has graded out as an excellent first baseman over his career (+8.8 UZR/150) and I'd love to have him as a pinch-hitter or an option in Triple-A, where I predict he'd do well.

Verdict: Less valuable than Branyan with the bat and also lefthanded, Kotchman would be hard pressed to find playing time on the Mets with Ike Davis entrenched at first. However, I'd be interested because he may be available on a minor league contract, unlike Branyan.

2B Ronnie Belliard (0.8M) and 2B David Eckstein (1M)
The tongue thing must really weird everyone out, because Ronnie Belliard can't hold a job despite having an OPS+ of 103 over the last four seasons (even including last year's clunker). For his career, he's a -1.3 UZR/150 at second base and would not be a bad option to bring in to challenge for that position.

On the exact opposite end of the spectrum we have Eckstein, who constantly gets paid despite having less value to his teams over the last four years than Belliard. Last season was actually Eckstein's best since 2005, as his career-best defense pushed him to 2 WAR according to fangraphs. Eckstein only started playing second base in 2008, and has made marked improvements each year. If his defensive improvement is for real, he'd be a huge upgrade over our in-house options despite hitting .267/.321/.326 last season.

Verdict: Belliard is older than I realized, so a pass on him. As for Eckstein, if the scouts/videotape agree with the fangraphs assessment of his excellent defense, Eckstein might be the perfect player to pair with Daniel Murphy or Brad Emaus at second base for the Mets while Ruben Tejada begins in Triple-A.

2B Mark Grudzielanek (.6M)
Slugged .273 -- toast.

2B Cristian Guzman (8M)
Can't field, never walks -- pass.

2B Felipe Lopez (1M)
Lopez is another guy we advocated the Mets grabbing last season. It turns out, the Mets were wise to avoid the advice -- Lopez hit .233/.311/.345. He was still worth positive WAR last season, just barely, but this was on the heels of a year where he put up an 810 OPS and was worth over $17 million as per fangraphs. For whatever reason, Lopez hit only .190 after the break, after putting up a first half which was mostly in line with his career. Was he hurt?

Verdict: Depends entirely on the reason for his second half swoon. If he's healthy and obtainable on a contract of less than a million dollars, I'd be comfortable making that move despite the Mets glut of second base options.

2B Orlando Hudson (5M)
If you are a Mets fan and you don't know who Orlando Hudson is by now, don't bother.

SS Bobby Crosby (1M)
Crosby is another guy I always wanted to see succeed. Unfortunately, he's struggled with injuries his whole career. I appears his days of playing adequate shortstop are over, but Crosby has slotted in (very) briefly at 1B, 2B, and 3B with good success in a limited sample size. I'd be interested in bringing in Crosby on a minor league deal to see if he can a) stay healthy and b) convert himself into a utility man.

Verdict: It's unlikely that Crosby will have any value to the Mets this year, but if he can be stashed in the minors, he may be worth a look.

3B Edwin Encarnacion (4.75M) (we covered Encarnacion in a non-tender article)

3B Josh Fields (.42M) (we covered Fields in a non-tender article)

3B Bill Hall (8.4M)
If there was a worse contract than Bill Hall's contract in the last decade, I would love to see it. At the time Hall was extended, he was not yet a free agent, but had put up two very good years in a row, cracking 52 home runs over 1038 at bats and posting a 869 OPS. But from what I remember at the time, nobody saw Hall as an elite player. He struck out 162 times in 2006, and was a good but not great fielder. A good player to have, but not the kind of guy you give $15.2 million in his first two free agent years when they were still two years away.

In any event, fast forward to today and Hall has already 1) crashed and burned by putting up wOBA's of .317, .297 and .261 in his next three seasons before 2) resurrecting his career by rebounding to a .342 wOBA. For reference, wOBA is weighted generally like OBP - a mark above .330 is considered average.

Hall still strikes out at an alarming rate, but he stroked 18 home runs last year for the Red Sox, had an 772 OPS, and accounted for 1 Win Above Replacement. Additionally, Hall played 2B, 3B, SS, and every OF position last season, to varying degrees of success (good infielder, bad outfielder). He has a slight platoon split where he is more successful against lefties than he is righties.

Verdict: Hall would make for a good fit as a super-utility player, provided he isn't offered the opportunity to play somewhere every day (as he may be in Los Angeles). If Hall doesn't get an offer like that, he'd definitely be worth $1-$2 million guaranteed to super-sub.

3B Andy LaRoche (.45M)
What ever happened to Andy LaRoche? Fangraphs has a great write-up here of LaRoche and his fall from prospectdom following his trade to Pittsburgh: mostly his lack of power and terminally low BABIP. His defense has proven to be above average at third, but overall, LaRoche has been worth only 1.2 WAR over his four major league seasons.

LaRoche had an OPS north of 900 in each of his last three minor league stops, but that was 2007 -- his line from the last two seasons in the Show has only been .241/.311/.364. Is there room on the Mets for a good-glove post-hype sleeper prospect? He'll be 27 this year, so it's make or break time for the younger LaRoche.

Verdict: If he can be had on a minor league deal, I would love to sign him. A hand injury sapped his power when he was first breaking into the major leagues, so there is no knowing if he altered his swing or has another kind of ailment which prevented him from reaching his potential. He certainly wasn't helped by being buried on the bench for the Pirates last year. LaRoche needs at least two or three months in Triple-A to see if he'll ever regain his promise.

Interesting 2011 Non-Tenders, Part 3

This is going to be the bullpen edition of my non-tender series, as it appears all the players I have left to profile are (coincidentally or not) relief arms. Because they have so much in common, it might make sense to profile them all similarly.

Alfredo Aceves: 28 years old, RHP, 3.00 ERA in 12ip
Last year's salary: $435K
Why Non-Tendered: Injured
Similar to the situation with my man Samuel Gervacio, the Yankees non-tendered Aceves because he was injured and did not want to use a roster spot for him while he rehabilitated. In 2009, when he was last healthy, Aceves posted a 3.54 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while notching a ridiculous 10-1 record. Apparently he is also a ninja, because to do that in New York City and not have your name be nationally recognizable is quite the feat.

Manny Delcarmen: 29 years old, RHP, 4.99 ERA/1.47 WHIP in 52ip
Last year's salary: $905K
Why Non-Tendered: Ineffective
Manny Delcarmen is an interesting case, in that he was very effective for the Red Sox in 2007 and 2008, posting a 2.81 ERA and 113K's in those two seasons with a great WHIP. He slipped a little in 2009, and in 2010 was traded to the Rockies where he put up a 6.48 ERA and apparently could not be used.

Bobby Jenks: 30 years old, RHP, 4.44 ERA/1.36 WHIP
Last year's salary: $7.5 million
Why Non-Tendered: Too Expensive
Jenks, unfairly, has always been one of my least favorite ballplayers. Much of it stems from an old ESPN the Magazine article which made some claims about Jenks off-field behavior, but I'm also hesitant on Jenks due to his size. Either way, he's coming off a sub-par season and will have a lot to prove in the upcoming year.

Going a step deeper on Jenks, it appears that he was very unlucky last season. Despite notching 10.4 K/9 (a career best in a full year) and a K/BB ratio of 3.39, he posted the highest ERA of his career. On the other hand, however, Jenks had a BABIP last season of .368(!), which is far above his career mark of .306. FIP and xERA back up that assessment, indicating that Jenks in fact had the best season of his career last year. Both metrics had Jenks posting a true-talent ERA of around 2.60. Full season stats, however, do not fully capture the downward spiral that Jenks was on in the second half.

With the White Sox unlikely to resign Jenks due to 1) personal issues and 2) the fact that they've already signed Dunn and resigned Konerko, this may be a good opportunity to grab a great pitcher on the cheap.

JP Howell: 28 years old, LHP, 2.84 ERA/1.20 WHIP in the 2009 season
Last year's salary: $1.8 million
Why Non-Tendered: Injured
An obvious non-tender candidate, Howell earned $1.8 million last season but did not throw a pitch for the Rays. When Howell was last healthy, he just dominating out of the pen late in games. He posted a 2.48 ERA over 2008-2009, struck out more than a batter per inning, and was absolute death to and righties. Howell underwent surgery on May 19, 2010 to repair a torn labrum. He will not be ready for Opening Day 2011, but the Rays are working to bring him back.

Chris Ray: 29 years old, RHP, 3.72 ERA/1.311 WHIP in 55 IP
Last year's salary: $975K
Why Non-Tendered: Too Expensive
Like Delcarmen, Ray appeared healthy, but did not warrant a raise from his already hefty salary of almost $1 million. The former Orioles closer of the future, Ray is an intriguing candidate as well. Unfortunately, he pitched terribly in 2009 (7.27 ERA) and his peripherals have been underwhelming to say the least. Ray would be a reclamation project - expecting much from him would be overly optimistic.

The Verdict?[1]
Alfredo Aceves: One year/$500K, major league deal if healthy
Manny Delcarmen: One year/$500K, minor league deal
JP Howell: Provided he is healthy, One year/$1M, with a club option for 2012 for $3M with a $500K buyout
Bobby Jenks: Pass - I'd love to have him, but you know he's going to get $6 million for this season from somebody. I'd take Jenks today on a Two year/$4M contract.
Chris Ray: Pass

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I wanted to point out one non-reliever as well, who I neglected in an earlier post, Josh Fields. Fields was also injured last year, and he had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip in April. He returned in September, but did not show the Royals enough for them to elect to keep him through arbitration at a raise of his last salary of $422K. Fields is an interesting buy-low candidate, in that he is in the prime of his career at age 28, but was robbed of his opportunity to play every day by the injury. Fields projects as a below-average defender at third base, but really hasn't played there enough to say so definitively. An excellent article on Fields can be found here at Royals Review.

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[1] And keep in mind, every player who is non-tendered has value - the part of this exercise which is useful is figuring out how much value they would have and, as such, how much you'd be willing to pay. It's easy to say you'd bring in Bobby Jenks on a $500K contract, but what's the point of that? In doing this, I endeavor to name a price I'd be willing to sign the guy for, assuming that the proposed contract is in the neighborhood of what he might get. Otherwise, you pass.

Interesting 2011 Non-Tenders, Part 2

Last episode, we took a look at five guys who might help the Mets this season as they try to rebuild and retool their roster. Taylor Buchholz, the stud reliever who came back from Tommy John last year; Edwin Encarnacion, underrated third baseman who projects to hit about 25 home runs; Lastings Milledge, a fourth outfielder who projects to a 95-100 OPS+; Ryan Rowland-Smith, who may benefit from a move out of Seattle into Safeco East; and Eugenio Velez, a Quad-A player who can put pressure on our in house second base candidates. Today, we look at a handful more.

Samuel Gervacio: A player who I've had my eye on all season was Samuel Gervacio. Gervacio struggled with injuries last year in what should have been his breakout season. He pitched only 13 innings between AAA and MLB with what appears to have been a rotator cuff problem. Gervacio was just coming off a season where he struck out 9.97 batters per nine in AAA and then had 21 sterling innings in his major league debut, posting a 2.14 ERA and 10.71 K/9. Instead of a step forward, however, he took a step back.

Gervacio was non-tendered this year as a result of his injuries, so the Mets have a special opportunity to acquire a special player:

Gervacio pitched for the major league club in April before being shut down with shoulder issues. MLB rules state that had he continued to be affected by the injury in spring training and did not make the club, he would have to be placed on the major league disabled list and command a major league salary.

The Astros hope to bring him back with a non-roster deal later in the offseason.

“We want Sammy to be part of our club, but we wanted the protection from having to keep him on our major league DL,” Astros general manager Ed Wade said. “We were prepared to tender everyone else on the roster.” (Source: Houston Chronicle)

Since he was non-tendered, every team in baseball has an equal opportunity to offer Gervacio the same minor league deal with a MLB option.

Gervacio in his 2009 debut was one of the best rookies in the game - outpacing rookies such as Andrew Bailey, Luke Gregerson, and Daniel Bard in measures such as swing and miss %. Batters swung and missed at his fastball an astounding 39% of the time.

Gervacio could be special, so I think the Mets should out-muscle the Astros with a better offer.

Verdict: Minor league deal, $750K if he makes the major league roster, with a $1.5M team option for 2012 and a 500K buyout.

Willy Aybar: Willy is another one of those guys who looks like a tweener to me. He put up a 921 OPS in Triple-A back in 2006, but since then has hung around the fringes of MLB rosters and never had the opportunity to play every day. His OPS numbers by season have been 764, 737, 747, and 653 and he garnered no more than 324 at-bats a year.

The reason that Aybar is interesting is because he can fake it all over the field. He is listed as a first baseman, although he only has a few games there (5.9 UZR/150). He's played at second base (-6.3 UZR/150) and third base (-1.8 UZR/150) as well.

Aybar will only be 28 this season, and if he can be had cheaply, I could see him contributing in a Fernando Tatis-type role. Aybar has a little pop in his bat, projecting to hit around 16 HR if he played a full season, and is stronger against lefties than righties (785 OPS v. left for career).

Verdict: Minor league contract

Jack Cust: We advocated signing Cust last offseason. What did he go on and do?

He earned $2.8M for his work and batted .272 with a .395 OBP and 13 home runs in only 113 games. According to fangraphs he was worth $9.6M.

Cust doesn't figure to be as cheap this season, but he was non-tendered by the A's in a move which confuses me once again. Cust would only have been in line to earn a little over $3M in arbitration (I think) so for the A's to let a .395 OBP walk away is surprising.

Could Cust fit on the Mets? Doubtful this year. I liked Cust last year on a cheap contract at first base when it was not clear that Ike Davis was ready, but this year it doesn't look like there is a spot for him. After posting such good numbers last year and benefiting from a lot of luck, Cust will get starter money somewhere and the Mets don't have a place to play him.

Verdict: Pass

Interesting 2011 Non-Tenders, Part 1

No flowery intro today -- just getting straight to work. Below, you'll find a list of a few non-tendered players who I think the Mets should take a look at. Obviously, standard caveats will apply -- if someone goes crazy and offers Edwin Encarnacion $5 million dollars, he should take it. However, I am assuming that most of these guys can be had at or around the minimum salary, and some even on minor league deals. With the Mets needing to buy-low and fill out the edges of their roster, without spending a lot of money, I think that some of these role players could be very, very good fits.


RP Taylor Buchholz: Buchholz is the perfect buy-low candidate, and hence, he is perfect for the Mets in this rebuilding season. Taylor Buchholz was one of the best relievers in major league baseball in 2008, posting a 2.17 ERA in Colorado and striking out almost 8 per 9 innings. He then got hurt and had to undergo Tommy John surgery.

He rehabbed and came back last season, struggling a little but with Colorado's Triple-A affiliate and the major league squad. He was claimed by Toronto and then Boston at the end of the year but didn't see action before being non-tendered by the Sox this offseason.

Buchholz is a great bounce-back candidate if healthy, but it looks like the Red Sox were not willing to take that gamble at the price it would have cost - a raise over the $1.05M he earned last year. One warning sign is that his velocity, which was at 92 in his Rockies days, was down to 89 last season. But you've got to keep in mind that he came back fairly quickly from his surgery.

With that said, I'd love to bring him in, though it appears the Mets have some competition in that regard.

Verdict: If healthy, 1 year/$650K

3B Edwin Encarnacion: It might surprise you to learn that, despite all the abuse he takes from the media and sabermetric types, that Edwin Encarnacion has been worth better than $5M in four out of the last five seasons (source: fangraphs). Even though he's got -44 UZR over those same five seasons, stats like that obscure the fact that he's only been worth -9.5 UZR in the last two seasons, and that third base is a damn hard position to play.

Because of this, he's earned 7 WAR over the last five years despite batting .260/.339/.455. Over his last three seasons, his 162 game average includes 30 home runs (!!) and a 104 OPS+. If he'd play second base, I'd take him. More likely, he'll get a contract to play third base somewhere and it will pay him more than a million dollars. If not - Edwin Encarnacion, come on down, you're the Mets starting second baseman!

Verdict: If he can play second base, 1 year/$1 million

LF Lastings Milledge: Oh, Lastings. I've missed you. I've rooted SO HARD for you to become a star... but alas, it has all been to no avail. What happened to you?

After putting up an OPS of 828 in AAA at the age of 21, and then hitting a nice .272/.344/.446 in the majors as a 22 year old, the world had such big plans for you! I wrote about Milledge last year:

Obviously, Lastings Milledge was never the super-stud prospect that he was made out to be... Both [his minor league seasons] were aided by high batting averages, (for instance, he had a .332 BABIP in AAA) and did not include particularly high walk rates or power... But it is quite possible that he can still be an asset... if he can continue to hit line drives more than 20% of the time (something he has done each year in the majors) and utilize his speed, there is no reason to think he can't be a .300 hitter.

If he can hit .300, and he can steal 20+ bases, and he can hit 15 to 20 home runs, he will be an extremely valuable player. Even moreso if he can continue to establish himself as an excellent left fielder (+16.4 UZR/150 in left field last season). A line of .300/.350/.450 is within reach... and Pittsburgh may have themselves a heck of a ballplayer.

I don't know. I was just wrong on Lastings, then wrong again, then after all hope seemed lost, I was wrong one more time. He stunk last year, split time with Ryan Church, and now, along with Jeff Francoeur, have all been non-tendered. The world can be funny sometimes.

I know Milledge will never come back to the Mets, but Bill James projects for him to have a moderate bounceback season of .284/.347/.413. ZiPS is less optimistic, at .276/.330/.398. Is that good? No. But it is an OPS of 94 from a player who projects as an above-average left fielder, average right fielder, and terrible center fielder. In fact, despite all the haterade, Lastings was worth $2.8M according to fangraphs.

And did you know that a 94 OPS+ would have been 8th among Mets players last season with at least 200 at bats? You could do a lot worse than Lastings Milledge on your squad. With him set to earn around $500K if he was tendered a contract, you can probably assume he'll earn around that number as a free agent. I'd take a gander.

(Side note: Lastings' most similar player on baseball-reference is beloved Met Cleon Jones. Think about that for a second)

Verdict: If we enter an alternate universe where Lastings Milledge coming back to the Mets is possible, 1 year/$650K

SP Ryan Rowland-Smith: You hear people talk about 'changes of scenery' sometimes, and usually it is just an excuse to get someone out the door, or an excuse to take on a player who has no potential to actually help your team. In some rare cases, however, a change of scenery might actually have some real effect (though obviously, no real way to measure such a thing).

One player who might benefit from this 'change in scenery' is Ryan Rowland-Smith. Mr. RR-S was not a bad prospect coming up through the Mariners system from 2004-2007. He always had an ugly WHIP, but he was left-handed and could strike guys out. When he made it to the show in 2007, he pitched effectively out of the bullpen. Then in 2008, he was effective again, split between the pen and the starting rotation. In 2009, he started exclusively and did well. He posted ERA's below 4 in each of those years.

Then, for some reason, the wheels fell off in 2010, and his ERA was north of 6. He stopped striking people out. Lefties hammered him. All of his four pitches were adjudged as negative in value by fangraphs. Why this is is anybody's guess, but I'd give RR-S a look.

Although he doesn't project as a situational lefty, he could always fit in the bullpen anyway if he can't stick in the rotation. and I imagine that he'd be extremely cheap - he was due only a little over 500K when the Mariners released him. Can he imitate Brandon Morrow and see success somewhere else?

Verdict: Minor league deal with the opportunity to start, if he wants it.

UTIL Eugenio Velez: I like Eugenio Velez. It started with my betting big on him in the 2009 fantasy baseball season, but I think he has value. Velez is a plus-plus defender in the outfield (in limited playing time) and can fake it at second base (-15.6 UZR/150). More importantly, he has posted OPS'es of 881, 791, and 792 in AAA in the last three years and has the potential to be a plus basestealer (though he was caught too often last year).

He has totally flopped in the big leagues, though I can't say for sure whether that's a small sample issue or whether major leaguers just knock the bat out of his hands. What I do know, though, is that a guy who can OPS over 800 in Triple-A (even if its the PCL) and who can give us 2B/LF/RF on a minor league or minimum contract is a guy I would like to have. He'll be 29 next season.

Verdict: If the scouts believe he could hit his way out of a wet paper bag, 1 year/$500K

Fonzie Forever's 2009 Non-Tender Candidates Review

Before I start taking a look at the 2010 non-tendered players and trying to decide who might be a good fit for this season's Met squad, I figured it would be instructive to look at a couple of posts from last year to see who I liked and didn't like from that year's scrap heap. Without further introduction:

INTERESTED:

Matt Capps

He was coming off injury last year, and there are a lot of reasons to believe that he was just unlucky. His fastball last year was the best it has ever been... He allowed only 18.7% of hits against him to be line drives... he may have been a little unlucky with home runs...The Mets should scoop this guy up quick.

Matt Capps was an enormously successful pickup for the Nationals last season. Capps signed for $3.5M, with bonuses that could bump it to $3.95M. He had a fantastic season, posting a 2.47 ERA and 42 saves and made the all star team. To add injury to another injury, when the Nationals fell out of contention, they were able to trade Capps to Minnesota for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos.

Ryan Church

He is a great defensive outfielder. His UZR/150 for his career as a left fielder is +3.7, and as a right fielder is a phenomenal +14.2... His average value from 2006-2008, per year, was around $7 million. I think Church... would make an *excellent* fourth outfielder...

Ryan Church took a pay cut to $1.5M last season but absolutely collapsed, hitting only .201 and posting a .265 OBP. He was an minor asset defensively, but was overall worth -0.2 WAR. Man, what happened to Ryan Church?

Jack Cust

Cust is another guy who would be helpful if he could be had cheaply. He could provide late power off the bench, and might want to come to New York to be part of a contender after spending his career in Arizona, Baltimore, San Diego and Oakland on bad teams.

Cust was great last season! He earned $2.8M for his work and batted .272 with a .395 OBP and 13 home runs in only 113 games. According to fangraphs he was worth $9.6M. You may be surprised to know that defensively he graded out as basically even, but only played 105 innings in the field. For his career, he was a negative fielder. Either way, Cust had a great, cheap season.

Ryan Garko: I'm confused about Ryan Garko - he was terrible last season in AAA. There's got to be something we don't know about that story. He earned just above the minimum salary.
Andrew Miller: The former first round draft pick was also a disaster last season.
Neal Cotts: Cotts signed a minor league deal this year but did not pitch anywhere because of injuries. Source.
Jonny Gomes: Jonny Gomes actually had an entire post devoted to him here at Fonzie last offseason:

The Mets absolutely NEED to be in on Jonny Gomes right now, as he is still a free agent. Gomes hit a great .267/.338/.541 for the Reds last season... his career marks are good for a 109 OPS+... he CRUSHES lefties - hitting .307/.369/.545 against them last season... His best offer on the table now is a minor league deal from the Reds. How come nobody will give this guy a major league contract or guaranteed money?

He plays a poor outfield, but did post a +2.2 UZR/150 in left field last season over 253 innings. Maybe we can slap a first baseman's mitt on him and have him back up 1B, and LF. Either way, he would be a strong option to pinch hit off the bench late in games, could grab an occasional start against lefties, and occupy the last spot on our roster.

He actually had an interesting season, did Gomes, as he got to play almost every day for the first time and posted 86 RBI with a 758 OPS. He had a down year offensively - probably a result of playing every day despite his platoon split - but was atrocious with the glove. Who knows, with these things?

Anyway, he was worth -0.1 WAR, which I believe could have been a decent sized positive WAR had he been used properly -- he actually had a 856 OPS vs lefties last year and a 709 OPS vs righties. He probably has a future career as a part-time DH as a Marcus Thames type. He earned 800K last season.


NOT INTERESTED
Garrett Atkins

For what it's worth, I think Atkins is done. Atkins' OPS has decreased steadily over the last four years, from 965 to 853, to 780, and then bottomed out at 650 last year. His career statistics away from Coors Field have been terrible. He is only 30 years old, but he was never the most physically fit player. Finally, he experienced a drastic jump in walks last season (from 40 in 664 ab to 41 in 339 ab) -- which is usually a bad sign for players at the end of their careers.

Get this - Atkins was the highest paid player on this entire list and was absolutely awful last year. He earned $4M for the Orioles to post a 562 OPS, hit .214, and butcher the ball defensively. He was actually worth NEGATIVE $4.4M.

You may remember that Atkins was a Metsblog obsession for a while -- good thing we dodged that one. And as for the Orioles, well, that's why they're the Orioles. It's interesting to note, however, that Fangraphs actually endorsed the move and that the fans were also wrong, projecting Atkins at $5.8M in value.

-----------

So where does that leave us? Certainly, I'd say there were more hits than misses, and especially big hits on Capps, Cust, and Atkins. Another lesson, if there is any, is that projecting a bounce-back for a hitter who is in a pattern of decline wasn't a good bet last year. Garko, Atkins, and Church were all bad. And those with big platoon splits, which would include Gomes, might not be as valuable as they appear to be on paper before they are exposed as every day players.

All in all, it appears that Capps, Cust, and Gomes, were worth their investments, while Church, Atkins, Cotts, Miller, and Garko were not. All in all, there are some big dividends to be reaped in the non-tender market with relatively little risk. I hope the 2010 Mets take a few chances.

Tune in soon for my review of the 2010 non-tender candidates!

It's Crazy, But..... Part 1: Aaron Heilman

From azcentral.com's Nick Piecoro:

[Aaron] Heilman’s agent, Mark Rodgers, said earlier today they haven’t made a decision yet, but it sounded as though Heilman was leaning toward declining the offer [of arbitration] and testing free agency.

Part of the thinking, it appears, is that Heilman might get a chance to do what he’s always wanted to do: try his hand as a starting pitcher.

What Would YOU Pay Jeter to Join the Mets?

Over on Amazin Avenue, the epicenter of rational thought in the Mets blogosphere, they had a poll this morning [1]asking readers the following:

Would you sign Derek Jeter to play for the Mets? To my surprise, the responses were overwhelmingly negative. By a margin of 76% to 23%, respondents voted no.[2]


I would most certainly sign Jeter if he was willing to play second base rather than shortstop. The real question, as far as I'm concerned, is "how much would you be willing to pay him?" I imagine that most of the people that voted "no" in the above poll did so because they took ancillary factors into account, such as price.

As far as I can tell, the question breaks down into two parts. One, what is Jeter's on-field value likely to be? And two, what is his off-the-field value to the Mets?

Mets Must Look Into Acquiring Jonny Gomes

Metsblog reported on Jerry Manuel's press conference earlier today, and one of their bullet points really caught my attention:

He wants a power bat for the bench, like Phillies had with Matt Stairs, even if the player is unable to play a variety of positions, like Mike Jacobs.

We at Fonzie have been saying that all offseason. But instead of crying over spilled milk - what is there left out there?

Jonny Gomes.

The Mets absolutely NEED to be in on Jonny Gomes right now, as he is still a free agent. Gomes hit a great .267/.338/.541 for the Reds last season - and although that was far above his career line of .241/.330/.471 - even his career marks are good for a 109 OPS+.

Next Year's Free Agent Class Will Not Be Great

One of the things you hear people say when they are grasping at straws to justify the Mets' terrible offseason is, "It is okay they didn't spend much, because next year's free agent class is going to be so much better!"

The Sporting News had an entire article devoted to wondering why the buzz wasn't GREATER, saying that "the class of major leaguers eligible to become free agents next year is every bit as star-studded as that in the NBA [with LeBron James]."

ESPN Radio's Rick Coutinho mentions some of the players who make the 2010-2011 class stronger:

Ryan Garko and Roster Construction

We at Fonzie Forever have been in favor of bringing Ryan Garko on board here for a few months now. In early December, we pointed out:

Garko has a career .313 average and 887 OPS against left handed pitching - the perfect compliment to Dan Murphy in a platoon at first base. He's not a world-beater in general, being a 28-year-old first baseman with an average bat and average-to-below-average glove, but he has his uses.

More recently, Anthony DeRosa at Hot Foot pointed out that Mets fans on twitter are "almost unanimous" in their support of that move. But here at Fonzie Forever, we have a habit of challenging conventional wisdom. Going a level deeper - does acquiring Ryan Garko make sense?

Mets Avoid Molina!!

This. Is. Great. News. This is the best possible news. I am elated.

Based on the way the market is shaping up, the Mets could do ALMOST ANYTHING with the money they would have given to Molina, and it'd still be better than signing him.

Last month, we wrote that a Santos/Blanco platoon was actually not so bad:

But there is one good part to [a Santos/Blanco platoon] -- their splits:

Santos, 2009, OPS: 616 vs. LHP, 727 vs. RHP
Blanco, career, OPS: 739 vs, LHP, 627 vs. RHP

Blanco's splits were even more pronounced last season, when he posted an awful 563 OPS against RHP and an amazing 1039 OPS against LHP (albeit in only 59 at bats). In 2008, 668 v. RHP and 771 v. LHP.[1]

IF (and I repeat, IF) the plan is to platoon Santos and Blanco, and have Coste mentor Thole in AAA for the first few months, then I approve. Santos and Blanco, as noted above, will be pretty bad offensively, but that's alright in the short run. If they can platoon and hit somewhere around .280/.320/.400 together, I'll take that... until Thole, as I anticipate, forces a promotion

Carlos Beltran's Surgery and Moving On

I have had almost 24 hours to digest the news that my favorite player, Carlos Beltran had surgery on his knee yesterday. I'm not going to engage in the ongoing speculation about who knew what, or how this reflects on the Mets, or any of that. All that I know is that, in my eyes, the Mets just went from a fringe contender to an unbelievable long shot -- and that the Mets would probably be best served by forgetting 2010.

On November 23rd I asked, "What should the Mets offseason strategy be?" It always appeared to me that the Mets were in the most undesirable of positions -- not good enough to compete for the East, not bad enough to sell everything and start over, and with several players locked into big contracts in their prime.

It was my opinion then that the Mets should "spend the money conservatively and gear up for a serious run at the post-season in 2011." It is even more true today. It appears now, more than ever, that any Mets run toward the playoffs this year was nothing more than a complete fantasy.

Did we really expect that Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, AND Johan Santana would all return from injury and be 100%? And that David Wright would recover his power and stop striking out? And that our underachieving young starters would somehow form a competent rotation? And before you say no -- we must have. If any of them faltered, we wouldn't have had a chance at Philadelphia or Atlanta even if we DID make a big-time offseason move.

So here we are, faced with the worst of the worst. Even if Beltran was able to make a miraculous recovery AND be back before the end of April AND be able to play centerfield, is this a team that we think we can win with? Or is this just a splash of cold water to the face? Is the fact that our best player had surgery performed on him less than two weeks into a new calendar year a coincidence? Or is it a grim reminder of the reality of the situation - that the injuries of 2009 can't be wished away? That life exists objectively, regardless of our optimism?

I never thought the Mets had enough to make a run at the playoffs this year -- not unless 1) we made a big splash and went over the widely-reported budget we were on or 2) literally every lucky break went our way. Now, neither of those things are possible. I still think the Mets can be good. I think they can compete in a tough NL East (where the Marlins are now using their revenue-sharing money and the Nationals are the most improved team). But I think it is time to bite the bullet on this one.

The Mets could, of course, do what so many have suggested and now try to make up for Beltran's absence. Sam Page over at Amazin Avenue does a great job and takes a crack at a solution:

So, as the A's did in Moneyball with Jason Giambi, the Mets need to replace Beltran in components, looking to upgrade elsewhere, which means firstbase and secondbase, most likely. Now, Orlando Hudson at secondbase and a flyer on either Russell Branyan or Carlos Delgado seems more likely.

* * *

The blind hope that Beltran would be fine and his old-self really allowed me to warm up to the Bay signing. Hopefully, this whole fiasco motivates the Mets to make drastic improvements to both their run-scoring and run-prevention.

How does the loss of a key player indicate to anyone that these is MORE reason to invest in this team? And if we didn't have the money before, how do we have it now? I'm not picking on Amazin Avenue - because I think this is the prevailing notion.

The loss of our centerfielder - a generational talent - is the LAST reason to pour more resources into the 2010 team. Now, more than ever, I think the Mets should stand pat and see what they have got. See if Reyes and others can bounce back, and see if we have a core of a contender for 2011 and beyond. And who knows? Maybe the team as currently constituted will be good or lucky enough to make a run -- and then we can make moves in-season.

But as I wrote yesterday:

An idea is either good or bad -- it doesn't matter which team it is. Ben Sheets is a good risk or a bad one, depending on the price -- not depending on which team he signs with.

* * *

Everyone has their own preference, either to gamble or be safe. But such a preference is personal -- it does not affect the OBJECTIVE truth of whether an investment is smart or not.

The Mets just became a far worse gamble than before.