2011-2012 Non-Tenders: Slim Pickings

A huge shout out to the estimable MLB Trade Rumors site for putting together the list of the 29 players non-tendered by their teams this offseason and who are now free agents.  In the past I have enjoyed putting together a comprehensive list of non-tenders and free agents who I thought would make sense for the Mets -- unfortunately, due to time, I will only be able to review a few this time around. 

Without further adieu, a reproduction of the entire list, and a highlight of the players I like:

Catchers (5)

     Chris Gimenez, Koyie Hill, Ronny Paulino, Eli Whiteside, Jason Jaramillo

 Second basemen (2)

     Jeff Keppinger, Will Rhymes

 Shortstops (1)

     Pedro Ciriaco

 Outfielders (5)

     Mike Baxter, Cole Garner, Jeremy Hermida, Luke Scott, Ryan Spilborghs

 Utility infielders (2)

     Brooks Conrad, Ryan Theriot

 Starting Pitchers (2)

     Jo-Jo Reyes, Joe Saunders

 Right-handed relievers (7)

     Fabio Castillo, Dan Cortes, Willie Eyre, Clay Hensley, Peter Moylan, Micah Owings, Andy Sonnanstine

 Left-handed relievers (5)

     Rich Hill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Aaron Laffey, Jose Mijares, Doug Slaten

The players that I select will be selected in light of what their projected cost might be and the needs of our squad.  For that reason, you won't see guys like Hong-Chih Kuo (too expensive), Joe Saunders (too expensive), Micah Owings (will likely return to current team), or Mike Baxter (just non-tendered him) on this list.

#1 - 2B Will Rhymes

Rhymes, aside from having a great name, is 28 years old and was non-tendered by Detroit this year after a disappointing season where he hit .235/.323/.271 in 99 at bats.  Rhymes is a very disciplined hitter -- he made contact on 92.6% of his swings in the majors -- and plays passable defense at second base (-3.6 UZR/150 in 600 innings).  

Rhymes is not going to light anyone's hair on fire, but he has hit .305 and .306 in Triple-A over the last two seasons, and posted an OPS of around 770.  In my book, he's worthy of bringing in as an non-roster invite to compete with Murphy at second base in light of the lack of other options (and don't say Jeff Keppinger to me, as his defense appears to be falling off a cliff and he's got no value if he isn't batting .320).

#2 - OF Jeremy Hermida

You know who this guy is.  And I say, why the hell not.  What happened to Jeremy Hermida is one of the great mysteries of modern times (along with Lastings Milledge, Elvis, and Pop Tarts) but even so he has been moderately valuable over the last few years.

Hermida has remained an average defender in right field for his career, and has posted excellent UZR's in his last two seasons in right (approximately +30 UZR/150 in a small sample of 275 innings).  Although he batted .190 in his last stint in the majors, he possesses a career 749 major league OPS and is only 27 years of age.  Given regular playing time in the minors for Cincinnati, Hermida put up a .319 average and 924 OPS.  

If Hermida can play good defense and hit .250, he'll definitely provide positive value, provided how tarnished his stock has become.  Hermida will likely latch on somewhere as a non-roster invite and make the major league minimum.  He is an adequate fifth outfielder option with some upside (I would start him every day in Triple-A).

#3 - RP Clay Hensley

I realize the Mets have added epic depth to their bullpen, but in terms of above non-tenders who they can afford who have a little upside, Hensley fits the bill.  Hensley, like the others, struggled last year, posting a 5.19 ERA and -0.1 WAR. 

However, Hensley is also the possessor of a 3.94 career ERA and is coming off a season where he posted a 2.16 ERA (2.87 FIP) for the Marlins in 2010.  His peripherals supported the performance, as Hensley struck out 9.24 batters per nine innings in his season-long dominant performance.

Hensley missed time with injury last season, but provided that he is healthy, would be a great addition for the Mets to keep or to trade at the deadline as I've heard so many suggest about our other bullpen acquisitions (though seriously people, this does not happen as often as you think).

#4 - SP Rich Hill

Hill had a breakthrough performance in 2007, striking out 183 batters and posting a WHIP of only 1.19.  Unfortunately for him, he's been derailed by injuries (bad) and forced to play for the Orioles (worse).

His last four seasons, Hill has pitched only 89 major league innings, and struggled in almost all of them and underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year.  He still had the "stuff" the last two years before going down with injury, so he's an intriguing flier.  He won't contribute to the squad in 2012, but he may be worthy of a look for late next season or for 2013.

I Also Like...

Peter Moylan and Luke Scott, should the price be right.

Interesting 2011 Non-Tenders, Part 3

This is going to be the bullpen edition of my non-tender series, as it appears all the players I have left to profile are (coincidentally or not) relief arms. Because they have so much in common, it might make sense to profile them all similarly.

Alfredo Aceves: 28 years old, RHP, 3.00 ERA in 12ip
Last year's salary: $435K
Why Non-Tendered: Injured
Similar to the situation with my man Samuel Gervacio, the Yankees non-tendered Aceves because he was injured and did not want to use a roster spot for him while he rehabilitated. In 2009, when he was last healthy, Aceves posted a 3.54 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while notching a ridiculous 10-1 record. Apparently he is also a ninja, because to do that in New York City and not have your name be nationally recognizable is quite the feat.

Manny Delcarmen: 29 years old, RHP, 4.99 ERA/1.47 WHIP in 52ip
Last year's salary: $905K
Why Non-Tendered: Ineffective
Manny Delcarmen is an interesting case, in that he was very effective for the Red Sox in 2007 and 2008, posting a 2.81 ERA and 113K's in those two seasons with a great WHIP. He slipped a little in 2009, and in 2010 was traded to the Rockies where he put up a 6.48 ERA and apparently could not be used.

Bobby Jenks: 30 years old, RHP, 4.44 ERA/1.36 WHIP
Last year's salary: $7.5 million
Why Non-Tendered: Too Expensive
Jenks, unfairly, has always been one of my least favorite ballplayers. Much of it stems from an old ESPN the Magazine article which made some claims about Jenks off-field behavior, but I'm also hesitant on Jenks due to his size. Either way, he's coming off a sub-par season and will have a lot to prove in the upcoming year.

Going a step deeper on Jenks, it appears that he was very unlucky last season. Despite notching 10.4 K/9 (a career best in a full year) and a K/BB ratio of 3.39, he posted the highest ERA of his career. On the other hand, however, Jenks had a BABIP last season of .368(!), which is far above his career mark of .306. FIP and xERA back up that assessment, indicating that Jenks in fact had the best season of his career last year. Both metrics had Jenks posting a true-talent ERA of around 2.60. Full season stats, however, do not fully capture the downward spiral that Jenks was on in the second half.

With the White Sox unlikely to resign Jenks due to 1) personal issues and 2) the fact that they've already signed Dunn and resigned Konerko, this may be a good opportunity to grab a great pitcher on the cheap.

JP Howell: 28 years old, LHP, 2.84 ERA/1.20 WHIP in the 2009 season
Last year's salary: $1.8 million
Why Non-Tendered: Injured
An obvious non-tender candidate, Howell earned $1.8 million last season but did not throw a pitch for the Rays. When Howell was last healthy, he just dominating out of the pen late in games. He posted a 2.48 ERA over 2008-2009, struck out more than a batter per inning, and was absolute death to and righties. Howell underwent surgery on May 19, 2010 to repair a torn labrum. He will not be ready for Opening Day 2011, but the Rays are working to bring him back.

Chris Ray: 29 years old, RHP, 3.72 ERA/1.311 WHIP in 55 IP
Last year's salary: $975K
Why Non-Tendered: Too Expensive
Like Delcarmen, Ray appeared healthy, but did not warrant a raise from his already hefty salary of almost $1 million. The former Orioles closer of the future, Ray is an intriguing candidate as well. Unfortunately, he pitched terribly in 2009 (7.27 ERA) and his peripherals have been underwhelming to say the least. Ray would be a reclamation project - expecting much from him would be overly optimistic.

The Verdict?[1]
Alfredo Aceves: One year/$500K, major league deal if healthy
Manny Delcarmen: One year/$500K, minor league deal
JP Howell: Provided he is healthy, One year/$1M, with a club option for 2012 for $3M with a $500K buyout
Bobby Jenks: Pass - I'd love to have him, but you know he's going to get $6 million for this season from somebody. I'd take Jenks today on a Two year/$4M contract.
Chris Ray: Pass

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I wanted to point out one non-reliever as well, who I neglected in an earlier post, Josh Fields. Fields was also injured last year, and he had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip in April. He returned in September, but did not show the Royals enough for them to elect to keep him through arbitration at a raise of his last salary of $422K. Fields is an interesting buy-low candidate, in that he is in the prime of his career at age 28, but was robbed of his opportunity to play every day by the injury. Fields projects as a below-average defender at third base, but really hasn't played there enough to say so definitively. An excellent article on Fields can be found here at Royals Review.

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[1] And keep in mind, every player who is non-tendered has value - the part of this exercise which is useful is figuring out how much value they would have and, as such, how much you'd be willing to pay. It's easy to say you'd bring in Bobby Jenks on a $500K contract, but what's the point of that? In doing this, I endeavor to name a price I'd be willing to sign the guy for, assuming that the proposed contract is in the neighborhood of what he might get. Otherwise, you pass.

Interesting 2011 Non-Tenders, Part 2

Last episode, we took a look at five guys who might help the Mets this season as they try to rebuild and retool their roster. Taylor Buchholz, the stud reliever who came back from Tommy John last year; Edwin Encarnacion, underrated third baseman who projects to hit about 25 home runs; Lastings Milledge, a fourth outfielder who projects to a 95-100 OPS+; Ryan Rowland-Smith, who may benefit from a move out of Seattle into Safeco East; and Eugenio Velez, a Quad-A player who can put pressure on our in house second base candidates. Today, we look at a handful more.

Samuel Gervacio: A player who I've had my eye on all season was Samuel Gervacio. Gervacio struggled with injuries last year in what should have been his breakout season. He pitched only 13 innings between AAA and MLB with what appears to have been a rotator cuff problem. Gervacio was just coming off a season where he struck out 9.97 batters per nine in AAA and then had 21 sterling innings in his major league debut, posting a 2.14 ERA and 10.71 K/9. Instead of a step forward, however, he took a step back.

Gervacio was non-tendered this year as a result of his injuries, so the Mets have a special opportunity to acquire a special player:

Gervacio pitched for the major league club in April before being shut down with shoulder issues. MLB rules state that had he continued to be affected by the injury in spring training and did not make the club, he would have to be placed on the major league disabled list and command a major league salary.

The Astros hope to bring him back with a non-roster deal later in the offseason.

“We want Sammy to be part of our club, but we wanted the protection from having to keep him on our major league DL,” Astros general manager Ed Wade said. “We were prepared to tender everyone else on the roster.” (Source: Houston Chronicle)

Since he was non-tendered, every team in baseball has an equal opportunity to offer Gervacio the same minor league deal with a MLB option.

Gervacio in his 2009 debut was one of the best rookies in the game - outpacing rookies such as Andrew Bailey, Luke Gregerson, and Daniel Bard in measures such as swing and miss %. Batters swung and missed at his fastball an astounding 39% of the time.

Gervacio could be special, so I think the Mets should out-muscle the Astros with a better offer.

Verdict: Minor league deal, $750K if he makes the major league roster, with a $1.5M team option for 2012 and a 500K buyout.

Willy Aybar: Willy is another one of those guys who looks like a tweener to me. He put up a 921 OPS in Triple-A back in 2006, but since then has hung around the fringes of MLB rosters and never had the opportunity to play every day. His OPS numbers by season have been 764, 737, 747, and 653 and he garnered no more than 324 at-bats a year.

The reason that Aybar is interesting is because he can fake it all over the field. He is listed as a first baseman, although he only has a few games there (5.9 UZR/150). He's played at second base (-6.3 UZR/150) and third base (-1.8 UZR/150) as well.

Aybar will only be 28 this season, and if he can be had cheaply, I could see him contributing in a Fernando Tatis-type role. Aybar has a little pop in his bat, projecting to hit around 16 HR if he played a full season, and is stronger against lefties than righties (785 OPS v. left for career).

Verdict: Minor league contract

Jack Cust: We advocated signing Cust last offseason. What did he go on and do?

He earned $2.8M for his work and batted .272 with a .395 OBP and 13 home runs in only 113 games. According to fangraphs he was worth $9.6M.

Cust doesn't figure to be as cheap this season, but he was non-tendered by the A's in a move which confuses me once again. Cust would only have been in line to earn a little over $3M in arbitration (I think) so for the A's to let a .395 OBP walk away is surprising.

Could Cust fit on the Mets? Doubtful this year. I liked Cust last year on a cheap contract at first base when it was not clear that Ike Davis was ready, but this year it doesn't look like there is a spot for him. After posting such good numbers last year and benefiting from a lot of luck, Cust will get starter money somewhere and the Mets don't have a place to play him.

Verdict: Pass

Interesting 2011 Non-Tenders, Part 1

No flowery intro today -- just getting straight to work. Below, you'll find a list of a few non-tendered players who I think the Mets should take a look at. Obviously, standard caveats will apply -- if someone goes crazy and offers Edwin Encarnacion $5 million dollars, he should take it. However, I am assuming that most of these guys can be had at or around the minimum salary, and some even on minor league deals. With the Mets needing to buy-low and fill out the edges of their roster, without spending a lot of money, I think that some of these role players could be very, very good fits.


RP Taylor Buchholz: Buchholz is the perfect buy-low candidate, and hence, he is perfect for the Mets in this rebuilding season. Taylor Buchholz was one of the best relievers in major league baseball in 2008, posting a 2.17 ERA in Colorado and striking out almost 8 per 9 innings. He then got hurt and had to undergo Tommy John surgery.

He rehabbed and came back last season, struggling a little but with Colorado's Triple-A affiliate and the major league squad. He was claimed by Toronto and then Boston at the end of the year but didn't see action before being non-tendered by the Sox this offseason.

Buchholz is a great bounce-back candidate if healthy, but it looks like the Red Sox were not willing to take that gamble at the price it would have cost - a raise over the $1.05M he earned last year. One warning sign is that his velocity, which was at 92 in his Rockies days, was down to 89 last season. But you've got to keep in mind that he came back fairly quickly from his surgery.

With that said, I'd love to bring him in, though it appears the Mets have some competition in that regard.

Verdict: If healthy, 1 year/$650K

3B Edwin Encarnacion: It might surprise you to learn that, despite all the abuse he takes from the media and sabermetric types, that Edwin Encarnacion has been worth better than $5M in four out of the last five seasons (source: fangraphs). Even though he's got -44 UZR over those same five seasons, stats like that obscure the fact that he's only been worth -9.5 UZR in the last two seasons, and that third base is a damn hard position to play.

Because of this, he's earned 7 WAR over the last five years despite batting .260/.339/.455. Over his last three seasons, his 162 game average includes 30 home runs (!!) and a 104 OPS+. If he'd play second base, I'd take him. More likely, he'll get a contract to play third base somewhere and it will pay him more than a million dollars. If not - Edwin Encarnacion, come on down, you're the Mets starting second baseman!

Verdict: If he can play second base, 1 year/$1 million

LF Lastings Milledge: Oh, Lastings. I've missed you. I've rooted SO HARD for you to become a star... but alas, it has all been to no avail. What happened to you?

After putting up an OPS of 828 in AAA at the age of 21, and then hitting a nice .272/.344/.446 in the majors as a 22 year old, the world had such big plans for you! I wrote about Milledge last year:

Obviously, Lastings Milledge was never the super-stud prospect that he was made out to be... Both [his minor league seasons] were aided by high batting averages, (for instance, he had a .332 BABIP in AAA) and did not include particularly high walk rates or power... But it is quite possible that he can still be an asset... if he can continue to hit line drives more than 20% of the time (something he has done each year in the majors) and utilize his speed, there is no reason to think he can't be a .300 hitter.

If he can hit .300, and he can steal 20+ bases, and he can hit 15 to 20 home runs, he will be an extremely valuable player. Even moreso if he can continue to establish himself as an excellent left fielder (+16.4 UZR/150 in left field last season). A line of .300/.350/.450 is within reach... and Pittsburgh may have themselves a heck of a ballplayer.

I don't know. I was just wrong on Lastings, then wrong again, then after all hope seemed lost, I was wrong one more time. He stunk last year, split time with Ryan Church, and now, along with Jeff Francoeur, have all been non-tendered. The world can be funny sometimes.

I know Milledge will never come back to the Mets, but Bill James projects for him to have a moderate bounceback season of .284/.347/.413. ZiPS is less optimistic, at .276/.330/.398. Is that good? No. But it is an OPS of 94 from a player who projects as an above-average left fielder, average right fielder, and terrible center fielder. In fact, despite all the haterade, Lastings was worth $2.8M according to fangraphs.

And did you know that a 94 OPS+ would have been 8th among Mets players last season with at least 200 at bats? You could do a lot worse than Lastings Milledge on your squad. With him set to earn around $500K if he was tendered a contract, you can probably assume he'll earn around that number as a free agent. I'd take a gander.

(Side note: Lastings' most similar player on baseball-reference is beloved Met Cleon Jones. Think about that for a second)

Verdict: If we enter an alternate universe where Lastings Milledge coming back to the Mets is possible, 1 year/$650K

SP Ryan Rowland-Smith: You hear people talk about 'changes of scenery' sometimes, and usually it is just an excuse to get someone out the door, or an excuse to take on a player who has no potential to actually help your team. In some rare cases, however, a change of scenery might actually have some real effect (though obviously, no real way to measure such a thing).

One player who might benefit from this 'change in scenery' is Ryan Rowland-Smith. Mr. RR-S was not a bad prospect coming up through the Mariners system from 2004-2007. He always had an ugly WHIP, but he was left-handed and could strike guys out. When he made it to the show in 2007, he pitched effectively out of the bullpen. Then in 2008, he was effective again, split between the pen and the starting rotation. In 2009, he started exclusively and did well. He posted ERA's below 4 in each of those years.

Then, for some reason, the wheels fell off in 2010, and his ERA was north of 6. He stopped striking people out. Lefties hammered him. All of his four pitches were adjudged as negative in value by fangraphs. Why this is is anybody's guess, but I'd give RR-S a look.

Although he doesn't project as a situational lefty, he could always fit in the bullpen anyway if he can't stick in the rotation. and I imagine that he'd be extremely cheap - he was due only a little over 500K when the Mariners released him. Can he imitate Brandon Morrow and see success somewhere else?

Verdict: Minor league deal with the opportunity to start, if he wants it.

UTIL Eugenio Velez: I like Eugenio Velez. It started with my betting big on him in the 2009 fantasy baseball season, but I think he has value. Velez is a plus-plus defender in the outfield (in limited playing time) and can fake it at second base (-15.6 UZR/150). More importantly, he has posted OPS'es of 881, 791, and 792 in AAA in the last three years and has the potential to be a plus basestealer (though he was caught too often last year).

He has totally flopped in the big leagues, though I can't say for sure whether that's a small sample issue or whether major leaguers just knock the bat out of his hands. What I do know, though, is that a guy who can OPS over 800 in Triple-A (even if its the PCL) and who can give us 2B/LF/RF on a minor league or minimum contract is a guy I would like to have. He'll be 29 next season.

Verdict: If the scouts believe he could hit his way out of a wet paper bag, 1 year/$500K

Fonzie Forever's 2009 Non-Tender Candidates Review

Before I start taking a look at the 2010 non-tendered players and trying to decide who might be a good fit for this season's Met squad, I figured it would be instructive to look at a couple of posts from last year to see who I liked and didn't like from that year's scrap heap. Without further introduction:

INTERESTED:

Matt Capps

He was coming off injury last year, and there are a lot of reasons to believe that he was just unlucky. His fastball last year was the best it has ever been... He allowed only 18.7% of hits against him to be line drives... he may have been a little unlucky with home runs...The Mets should scoop this guy up quick.

Matt Capps was an enormously successful pickup for the Nationals last season. Capps signed for $3.5M, with bonuses that could bump it to $3.95M. He had a fantastic season, posting a 2.47 ERA and 42 saves and made the all star team. To add injury to another injury, when the Nationals fell out of contention, they were able to trade Capps to Minnesota for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos.

Ryan Church

He is a great defensive outfielder. His UZR/150 for his career as a left fielder is +3.7, and as a right fielder is a phenomenal +14.2... His average value from 2006-2008, per year, was around $7 million. I think Church... would make an *excellent* fourth outfielder...

Ryan Church took a pay cut to $1.5M last season but absolutely collapsed, hitting only .201 and posting a .265 OBP. He was an minor asset defensively, but was overall worth -0.2 WAR. Man, what happened to Ryan Church?

Jack Cust

Cust is another guy who would be helpful if he could be had cheaply. He could provide late power off the bench, and might want to come to New York to be part of a contender after spending his career in Arizona, Baltimore, San Diego and Oakland on bad teams.

Cust was great last season! He earned $2.8M for his work and batted .272 with a .395 OBP and 13 home runs in only 113 games. According to fangraphs he was worth $9.6M. You may be surprised to know that defensively he graded out as basically even, but only played 105 innings in the field. For his career, he was a negative fielder. Either way, Cust had a great, cheap season.

Ryan Garko: I'm confused about Ryan Garko - he was terrible last season in AAA. There's got to be something we don't know about that story. He earned just above the minimum salary.
Andrew Miller: The former first round draft pick was also a disaster last season.
Neal Cotts: Cotts signed a minor league deal this year but did not pitch anywhere because of injuries. Source.
Jonny Gomes: Jonny Gomes actually had an entire post devoted to him here at Fonzie last offseason:

The Mets absolutely NEED to be in on Jonny Gomes right now, as he is still a free agent. Gomes hit a great .267/.338/.541 for the Reds last season... his career marks are good for a 109 OPS+... he CRUSHES lefties - hitting .307/.369/.545 against them last season... His best offer on the table now is a minor league deal from the Reds. How come nobody will give this guy a major league contract or guaranteed money?

He plays a poor outfield, but did post a +2.2 UZR/150 in left field last season over 253 innings. Maybe we can slap a first baseman's mitt on him and have him back up 1B, and LF. Either way, he would be a strong option to pinch hit off the bench late in games, could grab an occasional start against lefties, and occupy the last spot on our roster.

He actually had an interesting season, did Gomes, as he got to play almost every day for the first time and posted 86 RBI with a 758 OPS. He had a down year offensively - probably a result of playing every day despite his platoon split - but was atrocious with the glove. Who knows, with these things?

Anyway, he was worth -0.1 WAR, which I believe could have been a decent sized positive WAR had he been used properly -- he actually had a 856 OPS vs lefties last year and a 709 OPS vs righties. He probably has a future career as a part-time DH as a Marcus Thames type. He earned 800K last season.


NOT INTERESTED
Garrett Atkins

For what it's worth, I think Atkins is done. Atkins' OPS has decreased steadily over the last four years, from 965 to 853, to 780, and then bottomed out at 650 last year. His career statistics away from Coors Field have been terrible. He is only 30 years old, but he was never the most physically fit player. Finally, he experienced a drastic jump in walks last season (from 40 in 664 ab to 41 in 339 ab) -- which is usually a bad sign for players at the end of their careers.

Get this - Atkins was the highest paid player on this entire list and was absolutely awful last year. He earned $4M for the Orioles to post a 562 OPS, hit .214, and butcher the ball defensively. He was actually worth NEGATIVE $4.4M.

You may remember that Atkins was a Metsblog obsession for a while -- good thing we dodged that one. And as for the Orioles, well, that's why they're the Orioles. It's interesting to note, however, that Fangraphs actually endorsed the move and that the fans were also wrong, projecting Atkins at $5.8M in value.

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So where does that leave us? Certainly, I'd say there were more hits than misses, and especially big hits on Capps, Cust, and Atkins. Another lesson, if there is any, is that projecting a bounce-back for a hitter who is in a pattern of decline wasn't a good bet last year. Garko, Atkins, and Church were all bad. And those with big platoon splits, which would include Gomes, might not be as valuable as they appear to be on paper before they are exposed as every day players.

All in all, it appears that Capps, Cust, and Gomes, were worth their investments, while Church, Atkins, Cotts, Miller, and Garko were not. All in all, there are some big dividends to be reaped in the non-tender market with relatively little risk. I hope the 2010 Mets take a few chances.

Tune in soon for my review of the 2010 non-tender candidates!

Non-Tendered Players - Yes on Capps, No on Atkins

As most of you know, last night was the deadline for teams to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. Any player not "tendered" a contract is non-tendered and becomes a free agent, eligible to negotiate with any team. Here is the list of non-tenders, courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.

Matt Brown, Dustin Moseley, Ryan Garko, Clay Condrey, Josh Whitesell, Adam Miller, Anthony Reyes, Jose Veras, Matt Capps, Phil Dumatrait, Raul Chavez, John Buck, Josh Anderson, Mark Worrell, Jackson Quezada, Shawn Riggans, Gabe Gross, Ryan Langerhans, Mark DiFelice, Mike Rivera, Brian Anderson, Jack Cust, Mike MacDougal, D.J. Carrasco, Brian Bass, Neal Cotts, Jonny Gomes, Alfredo Amezaga, Scott Olsen, Chien-Ming Wang, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Church, Garrett Atkins, Seth McClung.*

Of those players, there are several I think could contribute to the 2010 Mets. Loosely in order of preference:

Matt Capps
Matt Capps is only 26, has 67 career saves, and a career 3.61 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Why was he non-tendered? He struggled last season.

Capps was due a raise from his $2.35 million salary, and the Pirates ultimately determined that such a cost outweighed Capps' value.

"If Matt is what he was in '07 and in the first half in '08, it's a no-brainer to tender him," Huntington said on Sunday. "While we believe Matt can be a bounce-back candidate for next season, we just weren't willing to go through the arbitration process and risk losing. We got to a number that was our final offer, and when they rejected it, we felt like this was our only option."

He finished the year with a 5.80 ERA, eight losses and five blown saves. It is worth noting, though, that of the 35 earned runs Capps allowed in 54 1/3 innings, 12 of those came in just three appearances (two innings), which certainly swelled his ERA. Source: MLB.com

Poor, small-market Pirates. Couldn't afford to take a chance on Capps when last year his ERA was an unsightly 5.80. He is a perfect candidate for the Mets, a team with bullpen problems and a big wallet.

He was coming off injury last year, and there are a lot of reasons to believe that he was just unlucky. His fastball last year was the best it has ever been, registering 93.6 MPH on average - up from 91.5 MPH the year before. He got swings on 29.7% of hit pitches out of the zone last year, above his career average of 28.1%. He allowed only 18.7% of hits against him to be line drives, down from his career average of 20%. Finally, he may have been a little unlucky with home runs - 13.5% of fly balls against him went for home runs, an unusually high rate.

The Mets should scoop this guy up quick, even if he is a due a slight raise. He'll want a one year deal to reestablish his value, and he'll provide insurance for K-Rod.

Mark DiFelice
Mark DiFelice had a 2.84 ERA in 2008. He had a 3.66 ERA in 2009. His WHIP is 1.20 for his career. Unfortunately, he'll be missing the year with shoulder surgery. I hope the Mets pick him up on a minor league deal with sights towards 2011.

Ryan Church
Let go by his third organization in as many years, there has to be more to Church than meets the eye. Is he a massive jerk? Whatever it is though, there is one thing that we know he is -- a great defensive outfielder. His UZR/150 for his career as a left fielder is +3.7, and as a right fielder is a phenomenal +14.2.

Church hit .273/.338/.384 last year for an OPS of 722 - down from 785 the year before, and 813 the year before that. He didn't hit well at all. Despite that, however, he was still worth $4.3 million dollars according to fangraphs.com. His average value from 2006-2008, per year, was around $7 million. I think Church is a solid bet to bounce back and if he could be had cheaply, would make an *excellent* fourth outfielder and insurance plan for Pagan/Beltran in case of injury or Francoeur in case of sucking-at-baseball.

Jack Cust
The Good: For his career, Jack Cust has an 864 OPS against right handed pitchers. He's hit 58 home runs over the last two seasons in Oakland.
The Bad: He struck out 185 times last year in only 513 at-bats. His career batting average is .239. He is a terrible defender everywhere.

That said, Cust is another guy who would be helpful if he could be had cheaply. He could provide late power off the bench, and might want to come to New York to be part of a contender after spending his career in Arizona, Baltimore, San Diego and Oakland on bad teams.

Garrett Atkins

Matt Cerrone over at Metsblog.com has talked about Atkins for a while. He pointed out the following:

Despite hitting just .226 last season for the Rockies, Atkins hit .268 against left-handed pitching; he hit .357 against lefties in 2008; .286 in 2007; and .341 against lefties in 2006.

With that left-right split, he becomes an ideal platoon partner for Daniel Murphy at first base. Murphy hit .275/.324/.430 against right-handers last year -- as opposed to .223 agaisnt left-handers.

For what it's worth, I think Atkins is done. Atkins' OPS has decreased steadily over the last four years, from 965 to 853, to 780, and then bottomed out at 650 last year. His career statistics away from Coors Field have been terrible. He is only 30 years old, but he was never the most physically fit player. Finally, he experienced a drastic jump in walks last season (from 40 in 664 ab to 41 in 339 ab) -- which is usually a bad sign for players at the end of their careers.

Others of interest:
Ryan Garko
Adam Miller
Neal Cotts
Jonny Gomes

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Edit: James pointed out to me that Garko might be the best non-tender of them all - especially for the Mets. A writer over at fangraphs really destroyed Giants GM Brian Sabean for letting Garko go, and he's probably right.

Garko has a career .313 average and 887 OPS against left handed pitching - the perfect compliment to Dan Murphy in a platoon at first base. He's not a world-beater in general, being a 28-year-old first baseman with an average bat and average-to-below-average glove, but he has his uses.