Jenrry Mejia Lands at #44 on Baseball America's Top Prospect List

When it comes to Mets prospects, I usually have a hard time understanding why the public perceives them the way that they do. Usually, scouting organizations and the media always find a way to frame the Mets farm system as one SUPERSTAR prospect and a bunch of bums.

But perception doesn't always match reality -- and when it comes to an organization like the Mets, for whom baseball's schadenfreude seems limitless -- things get blown grossly out of proportion. At this point, you can almost field an entire team out of failed Mets super-prospects from the last fifteen years - Isringhausen, Wilson, Pulsipher, Escobar, Ochoa, Heilman, Gomez, Martinez, Milledge.

However, the fact of the matter is, the Mets farm system might have been a little below average in the last decade or so, but it has had no problem churning out good major leaguers. Aside from David Wright and Jose Reyes, the Mets have developed Scott Kazmir, Ty Wigginton, Melvin Mora, Heath Bell, Jon Niese, Josh Thole, Matt Lindstrom, Bobby Parnell, and others.

Unfortunately for those who would like to cultivate that story, the Mets no longer have a top prospect who is destined for superstardom. As such, the remainder of the Mets prospects are downplayed, as usual. I'd like to demonstrate this by comparing one of our very own, Jenrry Mejia, to a player who has seen almost universal acclaim from prospect evaluators, Neftali Feliz. Mejia landed at #44 on this year's Baseball America top prospect list.

Entering last season, Neftali Feliz was an enormously hyped prospect. According to Baseball America, he was the #9 prospect in all of baseball. According to John Sickels, he was the #2 pitching prospect in the game, behind only Stephen Strasburg.

What had he done to earn all that hype? And don't get me wrong - he deserved it. Neftali Feliz's minor league career looks something like this:

2008 - A+ - 20 - 2.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 11.63 K/9 (as starter)
2008 - AA - 20 - 2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.33 K/9 (as starter)
2009 - AAA - 21 - 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.73 K/9 (mixed starting and relieving)
2009 - MLB - 21 - 1.74 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 11.32 K/9 (as reliever)

He was young, and he dominated each league he played in. From a scouting perspective, Feliz is listed as 6'3" 180 lbs and throws fire - a fastball averagine 96.3 mph over 80% of the time, along with a great curveball.

Mejia, on the other hand, has remained stagnant in most baseball prospect lists. He was the #56 prospect in baseball entering 2010, and only increased his standing to #44 in the most recent Baseball America list. But why such a little jump, when he did this the last two seasons?

2009 - A+ - 19 - 1.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.87 K/9
2009 - AA - 19 - 4.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.54 K/9
2010 - AA - 20 - 1.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.58 K/9
2010 - MLB - 4.62 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 5.08 K/9

The numbers for Mejia are not as encouraging on the surface as they are for Feliz, and he did finish out the year with a rhomboid strain - but you have to remember, these are professional scouting organizations and should not be basing their decisions on superficial information. That's what we bloggers do.

So from a scouting perspective, Mejia is 6'0" and 162 lbs, so tall but wiry like Feliz. He gets by with a blazing sinking fastball averaging 94.6 mph and an above average changeup. He also throws a curveball, like Feliz. He also tackled each of the above levels (plus one dominating start at AAA) a year younger than Feliz did.

So what separates last year's #9 best prospect in baseball (Feliz) from this year's #44 prospect (Mejia)? I have no idea[1].


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[1] And for the record, the players immediately surrounding Mejia in the rankings:

#43 Dellin Betances, a 22 year old who spent the year dominating in A+ ball, then pitching 14 great innings in AA. He posted a 0.91 WHIP and 12.56 K/9 in AA, which is great, but it was only 14 innings and he's already two full years older than Mejia.

#45 Aaron Hicks is a toolsy 20 year old outfielder who repeated low-A after an unsuccessful 2009 season where he posted a 735 OPS. In his second tour of Beloit, in the Midwest League, he posted a line of .279/.401/.428. However, he's still all projection at this point and hasn't shown any ability to hit for power. He's very athletic, and has shown good plate discipline, but right now he's at least a year and a half away.

The Most Important Thing From... Game 13, Mets v. Cubs, April 19th

In March, the New York Times ran a great piece on the Mets farm system entitled "The Mets Future Suddenly Feels Far From Barren." In it, there were a couple of great quotes, and a couple of great player profiles. Nothing, however, stood out to me more than a single line delivered by Jerry Manuel:

“The talent is on the doorstep,” Manuel said. “It’s not in the living room, but it’s right there waiting.”

Well. It is here. The talent isn't on the doorstep any more - it has beaten the door off its hinges and it's making it's way to Flushing. You can say what you will about the Mets chances this year, but tonight, the Mets youth put on an absolute display.

Mejia is Not Parnell

Quick blurb from Metsblog caught my eye today:

…mejia struck out Matt Diaz with a 97 mph fastball, high out of the strike zone, that diaz swung at, missed and seemingly never saw… by the way, SNY’s Gary Cohen brought up an interesting point, in that, last spring, people were raving about Bobby Parnell in much the same way they’re doing now with mejia… yet, here we are wondering what parnell’s future holds…

Well... let's see.

Jenrry Mejia is an ELITE prospect. He's got a plus plus fastball which touches 97 and with cutting action. His secondary pitches are coming along and show a lot pf promise. He's coming off a season where, at the age of 19, he dominated High-A ball and held his own in Double-A. He even struck out more than a batter per inning at Binghamton. To do this as a teenager is extremely impressive.

Bobby Parnell was not an elite prospect. He was drafted in the ninth round of the amateur draft and was given a tiny bonus. He's got a fastball which touches 99 but is flat and straight. He has no secondary pitch worth noting. Last year, he was coming off a season where he struggled in Double-A and was shelled in Triple-A as a 23 year old.

To complete the (what's the opposite of an analogy?) comparison, their spring trainings aren't similar at all either. This year, Mejia has electrified camp with a great spring, posting a 1.54 ERA over 12 innings with a K-BB ratio of 9-2 and only 7 hits. Last year, Parnell also had a great ERA of 1.88, but he supported it with a K-BB ratio of 11-10, while also giving up 12 hits. The ERA's are similar -- but the similarity ends there.

Mejia is a far better prospect, with far better stuff, and has had a far better spring. The comparison is meaningful in that they are both youngsters who posted low ERA's in a dozen spring innings... but to mention the two in the same breath is a slight to Mejia's actual (not imaginary, as in the case of Parnell) potential.

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Edit: Actually, that is harsh of me regarding Parnell. To be clear, and I've said this before, Parnell has every opportunity to become a useful reliever. Guys who can throw as hard as he can and throw strikes do not grow on trees - and they have the kind of potential that coaches dream about. If he can develop a good secondary pitch, or find a way to cut or sink his current fastball, he could be great. But the pedigree, the resume, and the percentage chance of that happening, are not as great as they have been made out to be for the last year.