Bobby Parnell Has Suddenly Become Very Important

Bobby Parnell was very impressive last night. As Gary Cohen noted during the broadcast, Parnell threw over a dozen pitches at 100 mph or faster, as well as a couple at 102. I didn't see it, but the NY Times claims that he threw a pitch at 103 as well.

Putting aside the issue of whether the gun was fast (it was), Parnell was throwing some serious heat last night. The fastball was darting and tailing, and the slider was a wipeout pitch. If Parnell can continue to pitch like that, he is going to be very very good. Very.

Mejia is Not Parnell

Quick blurb from Metsblog caught my eye today:

…mejia struck out Matt Diaz with a 97 mph fastball, high out of the strike zone, that diaz swung at, missed and seemingly never saw… by the way, SNY’s Gary Cohen brought up an interesting point, in that, last spring, people were raving about Bobby Parnell in much the same way they’re doing now with mejia… yet, here we are wondering what parnell’s future holds…

Well... let's see.

Jenrry Mejia is an ELITE prospect. He's got a plus plus fastball which touches 97 and with cutting action. His secondary pitches are coming along and show a lot pf promise. He's coming off a season where, at the age of 19, he dominated High-A ball and held his own in Double-A. He even struck out more than a batter per inning at Binghamton. To do this as a teenager is extremely impressive.

Bobby Parnell was not an elite prospect. He was drafted in the ninth round of the amateur draft and was given a tiny bonus. He's got a fastball which touches 99 but is flat and straight. He has no secondary pitch worth noting. Last year, he was coming off a season where he struggled in Double-A and was shelled in Triple-A as a 23 year old.

To complete the (what's the opposite of an analogy?) comparison, their spring trainings aren't similar at all either. This year, Mejia has electrified camp with a great spring, posting a 1.54 ERA over 12 innings with a K-BB ratio of 9-2 and only 7 hits. Last year, Parnell also had a great ERA of 1.88, but he supported it with a K-BB ratio of 11-10, while also giving up 12 hits. The ERA's are similar -- but the similarity ends there.

Mejia is a far better prospect, with far better stuff, and has had a far better spring. The comparison is meaningful in that they are both youngsters who posted low ERA's in a dozen spring innings... but to mention the two in the same breath is a slight to Mejia's actual (not imaginary, as in the case of Parnell) potential.

--------------

Edit: Actually, that is harsh of me regarding Parnell. To be clear, and I've said this before, Parnell has every opportunity to become a useful reliever. Guys who can throw as hard as he can and throw strikes do not grow on trees - and they have the kind of potential that coaches dream about. If he can develop a good secondary pitch, or find a way to cut or sink his current fastball, he could be great. But the pedigree, the resume, and the percentage chance of that happening, are not as great as they have been made out to be for the last year.

Bobby Parnell is Good-Not

Let me just try and pre-empt all this Bobby Parnell as eighth inning guy talk.

He is not good.

Now, I like Bobby Parnell. As a human being, he's actually amazingly awesome at baseball. He is definitely one of the thousand most talented baseball players on the planet -- so what does that make him, in the 99.99th percentile?

That said, he is NOT a good candidate to pitch any high leverage innings for the Mets. He was never good last season, he was never particularly good in the minors, and there is no reason to believe that he will be much better this year.

I realize his ERA looked nice in the early going last year. I realize he throws 98 miles per hour. But the hysteria around Parnell was off the charts. I remember Metsblog calling it "laughable" that the Nationals wanted Parnell in exchange for Nick Johnson. Nick Johnson!! A great first baseman with a career OPS+ of 125. That was when the delusion was at its height.

But back in the real world, we know that Parnell hasn't shown us any real concrete reason to believe he won't just be a poor man's Brian Stokes. Here are some minor league stats Parnell posted as a starter:

2007 - St Lucie (A+) - 3.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
2007 - Binghamton (AA) - 4.77 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
2008 - Binghamton (AA) - 4.30 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
2008 - New Orleans (AAA) - 6.64 ERA, 1.67 WHIP

He was mediocre in the minors and he was mediocre in the majors. He struck out a lot of guys and walked a lot of guys. He posted a tolerable ERA despite a high WHIP because a higher percentage of his WHIP came from walks -- who would then be stranded on subsequent strikeouts.

As a reliever last season (and omitting his terrible performance as a starter) he posted a great 3.46 ERA. But again, it was accompanied by a 1.50 WHIP, over a hit per inning, and almost 4.5 walks per 9 innings. He was basically a bullpen version of bad Oliver Perez.

I like Parnell's chances of improving in the future. I think he'll be an asset for the Mets. I hope he'll stick with us and I'll be rooting for him. But any projection for him which has him posting an ERA better than 4.00, or walking less than 4 guys per 9 innings, or which has him anywhere near an 8th inning lead, is WAY premature.

-------------
Edit, Friday 12:39pm: A lot of people are pointing out that Parnell was a starter in the minors and will be used in relief in the majors. That is true. I agree that one could project his future a little more optimistically than the minor league statistics would indicate - especially given his fastball. However, ugly is ugly no matter where you are. Being that he was age-appropriate for all of those levels, you've got to do better than a 6.64 ERA in Triple-A.