3/12 Aroldis Chapman Impressions

I had a chance to watch Aroldis Chapman pitch for the first time since he signed with the Reds and came away with some strong impressions. When I recently ranked him #16 overall among prospects I did so completely off of scattered reports and that rank was a bit of a guess, because of how little information I have. While I do look at stats to help evaluate prospects, I also do pay attention to what I can see with my own eyes. Despite a poor camera angle and... we'll call it interesting... production choices I was able get a better idea of just what type of player Chapman is.

First of all, the fastball. With no radar gun at my disposal I was relying on the broadcasters telling me a few registered at 98 MPH, and he certainly appeared to be throwing hard. The thing that struck me the most though was how much movement he had. The pitch had substantial arm-side run on it that was very obvious, even from the well off-center view I had. If he is throwing legitimate upper-90s heat with that kind of life it is one of the best fastballs on the planet.

2010 Top Prospects Part 11: Organizational Rankings

Regarding the minor leagues, the question I get asked more than any other is: how good is [my favorite team's] farm system? Well, every year I like to put together a little ranking of all the organizations to answer that question. Since I have spent roughly the last two months working on ranking individual players (256 in total), I actually have the perfect tool to answer that question. I developed a point system, giving each organization a certain amount of credit for each player I took the time to single out. I will not go into great depth over how much each prospect was worth, but as a couple of examples, Stephen Strasburg (#1 overall) was worth 15, Ryan Westmoreland (#50 overall) was worth seven and Tanner Scheppers (#101 overall) was worth two. After totaling up these scores, here is how the teams broke down.


1. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays simply lap the field when it comes to prospects, putting 3 guys in the top 12 overall and 7 in the top 100. Desmond Jennings is clearly the team's top prospect but they also have an impressive group of pitchers coming through the minors. Given how much talent already on hand for the parent club, and how loaded its system is, it looks like Tampa Bay will be competitive for a long time.

2010 Top Prospects Part 10: Right-Handed Starters

Pitching prospects are one of the most coveted assets in baseball today. You can never have too much pitching (particularly starting) and if you can develop a pitcher out of the minors they will be much cheaper than signing a free agent. Every team in baseball has a few pitching prospects that they like and sorting through all of the noise to figure out which ones stand out is difficult. Add to it the extremely high attrition rate for the position and any list you come up with is going to be volatile. My list for right-handed starters is significantly longer than all of the other positions (and I could have easily gone much farther) because there are just so many guys that have a chance to be serious contributors in the majors.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders
Pt. 7: Center Fielders
Pt. 8: Relievers
Pt. 9: Left-Handed Starting Pitchers


1. Stephen Strasburg - Nationals (1)

If you could build the perfect pitcher in a lab, the result would very closely resemble Strasburg. Physically he is ideal; tall enough to get excellent leverage on his pitches but not so tall that his coordination suffers. He has a lightning quick arm and is an excellent athlete for a pitcher. He also has outstanding makeup. After not even being drafted in high school he committed himself to getting in better shape and working on his craft. The end result is that he is now the best pitching prospect in recent memory. In the past few years the only examples of pitchers that can even be compared to Strasburg when they were prospects are Felix Hernandez, Mark Prior and Josh Beckett, but Strasburg has a higher ceiling than any of them.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 9: Left-Handed Starters

Left-handed starting pitchers tend to be more coveted than their right-handed counterparts, and generally can succeed in the majors with less stuff. As a whole they do not throw quite as hard or have breaking pitches quite as nasty, but that does not mean they are lesser prospects. As always this year features many players with lights-out stuff as well. At the top of the list you will find some close to finished products, but there are also a bunch of very high ceiling players emerging in the low minors.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders
Pt. 7: Center Fielders
Pt. 8: Relievers


1. Brian Matusz - Orioles (7)

Matusz was about as close to major-league ready as you will find in a draft pick when he was taken 4th overall in 2008. He dominated college hitters with four pitches that all had potential to be effective major-league offerings and commanded them all. He needed less than a full season in the minors before making his big league debut and was solid over eight starts to close out the season for Baltimore. He should break camp with the team this year and be a fixture in their rotation for the season.

Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter, Part 2

A few months back, Jimmy wrote a great article on the cutter and how it is a highly-effective and under-utilized pitch:

In the last two years among qualified starters, 17 pitchers can be said to use a cutter often enough that it can be considered a legitimate part of their repertoire . . . These are the only starting pitchers who throw cutters routinely in baseball right now and the striking thing is that all of their cutters are effective.
* * *
Out of the 17 pitchers listed, for nine of them, the cutter is their most effective pitch . . . All of this data seems to suggest that the cutter, in general, is an incredibly useful pitch to learn and use. It seems that more pitchers are learning it every year and it has helped their careers immensely.

The article got picked up by a couple other outlets, and was pretty widely read.

Today, a Texas Rangers blog highlighted the cutter and drew many of the same conclusions that Jimmy did:

[T]he cutter is becoming even more popular under the Maddux regime, with McCarthy joining the ranks of Feldman, Tommy Hunter and Colby Lewis v. 2.0 as cutter-brandishing Rangers.

This latter point, in particular, fascinates me to no end. It seems ineluctably clear that Texas values pitchers capable of throwing the cutter (as evidenced by this latest overhaul and the Lewis signing), but why? Well, beyond the lefty-neutralizing powers of the cutter, it turns out that it also wields power-neutralizing capabilities (per Sky Kalkman's research), and it can be thrown for strikes at a similar rate to conventional fastballs while still producing a greater rate of swinging strikes. Yet, cutters are still remarkably scarce in the modern game; Baseball Info Solutions-supplied pitch data indicates that fewer than one out of every 20 major league pitches thrown in 2009 was classified as a cutter.

Maybe Mike Maddux reads Fonzie Forever! Or, far more likely, Jimmy did a great job identifying a burgeoning trend. It will be interesting to see, as the author of the blog later points out, if the cutter is a "market inefficiency" and whether it will last.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 8: Relievers

Relief Pitchers are by far the hardest group of prospects to rank. First of all, many of the relievers in the majors today are failed starting pitchers and they may have only made a handful of appearances out of the pen in the minors. But even more significant, is just how volatile the position is. So many relievers blow out their arms or come out of nowhere to post excellent numbers. Because of that, take this list with a grain of salt. I am sure that a lot of players listed here will never see the majors, and it is equally possible that some players I did not list are going to have very good careers. Several players that are currently starters who appear destined to move to the pen for one reason or another are here as well.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders
Pt. 7: Center Fielders


1. Drew Storen - Nationals (71)

Storen is the other player Washington drafted in 2009's first round. He was the first pure reliever selected after anchoring Stanford's pen. Storen is a little atypical for an upper tier closer prospect. He does not have huge velocity and generally sits in the low-90s. What makes him the top reliever prospect is his pair of breaking balls, both of which are plus pitches. Most relievers only use one secondary pitch, but Storen throws a big breaking curve and a power slider, both of which generate lots of strikeouts.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 7: Center Fielders

The major leagues are already teeming with talented, young center fielders, but that does not mean the minors have run dry. Two of the top prospects in all of baseball roam center and while they do stand out from the crowd, center field also boasts some of the highest upside prospects in the low minors. Here is where you will generally find the best all-around athletes in baseball. Center requires the speed of a middle infielder, but also more impact with the bat and at least an average arm. The top center field prospect list is also very diverse in terms of skills. There are several players with big time home run potential, slap hitters and everything in between.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders



1. Desmond Jennings - Rays (5)

The Rays do not spend a lot of money but have really done a good job lately of figuring out the players who are worth an investment. Jennings was an over-slot 10th round pick in 2006 and immediately everybody could see his potential. Often described as a right-handed Carl Crawford who also takes his fair share of walks, the Rays did not get a real sense of how special he was until 2009. Jennings missed time in 2007 and then almost all of 2008 with knee, back and shoulder injuries, two of which required surgery. Last year he finally managed to stay on the field and delivered a big year.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 6: Corner Outfielders

A significant portion of the best power hitting prospects in baseball are corner outfielders. It is a position where you need to bring some thunder with bat if you expect to be an asset for your team. That is not to say the position is completely devoid of athletes. While there are a few hulking mashers destined to be a defensive liability, there are also a ton of well rounded players, particularly at the top of the list. I am grouping left and right-fielders together because the only thing that generally separates them is arm strength, however where they end up playing in the majors is often a product of the team that they play for, as much as it is the individual.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman


1. Jason Heyward - Braves (2)

The consensus top hitting prospect in baseball, Heyward is the total package. He slipped to the 14th overall pick in the 2007 draft partially because so few scouts had a chance to see him at his best. Everybody could see the incredible natural strength but few realized just how advanced and polished he was as a player. The Braves have a history of drafting kids from Georgia and happily continued the trend when Heyward was available. As soon as he took the field as a professional Heyward's talent was apparent.

In his first full season, 2008, Heyward was solid but in retrospect we were only seeing a glimpse of what he was capable of. He began 2009 in high-A as one of the younger players in the league, and played like an all-star from day one. He earned a promotion to AA where he posted an insane slash line of .352/.446/.611 while walking significantly more than striking out. Although his slugging percentages were high, most scouts believe he has only begun to tap into his raw power, and could easily post over 30 home runs a season in the majors. He has the speed to occasionally steal bases and is an asset in right field. The one downside to last season was that he missed time, including some in the Arizona Fall League with nagging injuries.

Heyward is very close to the majors already and should be there before his 21st birthday in August. The Braves corner outfield spots are currently manned by average at best players and Heyward could be their best right-field option as soon as opening day. Because he has such an advanced approach at the plate, and great eye, he should be able to survive a rushed promotion, unlike former Atlanta top prospect Jeff Francoeur. There is no hitting prospect in the minors that boasts Heyward's all around potential, combined with the refinement that makes everyone believe he can reach exceedingly high expectations.

2010 Top Prospects pt 4: Shortstops

It is a bit of a down year for shortstop prospects, meaning both middle infield positions are not exactly overflowing with high potential guys. Shortstop is, in my opinion, the most demanding position for a prospect, even more so than catcher. So many players sign as shortstops and then have to move to a less important defensive position. Shortstops need a strong arm and also have to be quick, agile and consistent. It also helps if they can hit a little. Of all the 2010 top shortstop prospects, I only see one player who has a good chance to make an impact with both the bat and the glove, not surprisingly, he ranks first.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman


1. Starlin Castro - Cubs (18)

The Cubs have done a terrible job developing hitting prospects for a long time now but recently there have been signs of progress. Both of their middle infielders and catcher are home grown and while they are all basically average players, that is an improvement. Castro has a chance to be that special player that they have previously had to look outside the organization for. He is an excellent defender and while the bat is not there yet he has shown constant improvement the last couple of years. He also has surprising strength, leading most scouts to believe that some of his stinging line drives will go over the fence down the road.

2010 Top Prospects pt 3: Second Baseman

Second base is rarely a hotbed for prospects. Many of the players that end up playing second base in the majors have moved from another position, usually shortstop, and as a result there are generally slim pickings for true second base prospects. This year is even more of a down year with none rating in my top 30 overall prospects. In fact only six made the top 100 and I would not be surprised if half of them actually ended up at different positions in the majors anyway. Still, there are some interesting names on this list, including several that will see the majors this year.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman


1. Brett Lawrie - Brewers (33)

The Midwest League is a tough first year assignment for a fairly raw high-schooler from Canada, but Milwaukee felt Lawrie's bat could handle it. Despite his background, Lawrie was considered to be one of the best pure hitters among prep players and his play thus far has lived up to that reputation. Originally drafted as a catcher, Lawrie has a powerful build and a quick, short swing that should result in plenty of contact and power.

Lawrie gave up on catching before he made his pro debut in favor of second base, but he has a long way to go there as well. Even though 2009 was a success offensively, he also exacerbated doubts about his ability to stick in the middle of the diamond. There have been reports that Lawrie cares a lot more about hitting that defense and that if he dedicated himself, he would be fine with the glove. He was pushed up to AA for a couple of weeks and was overwhelmed, but given his age that is not really a concern.

Easily the most gifted hitter among second base prospects, Lawrie should move quickly because of his bat. Milwaukee's corner positions are already crowded and they really need Lawrie to become at least average with the glove, something that Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel could not do at third base. With Alcides Escobar already set to start at shortstop, the Brewers could have a completely home grown double play combination in a couple of years when Lawrie makes it to the majors.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 2: First Basemen

As would be expected, first base boasts some of the best hitters in the minor leagues, although this group is not quite as strong as in previous years. In fact, I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that 5 of the top 6 players on my list had disappointing '09 seasons, and that trend continued further down as well. Regardless there are a lot of sluggers here to get excited about. While there's no potential Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard in this group that is likely to be a dominating force very quickly, I do see several players that could easily become middle of the order hitters. The numbers in parenthesis show where the player ranks among all prospects in baseball, not just those at his position.

Pt 1: Catchers


1. Logan Morrison - Marlins (14)

Morrison has quietly been moving up prospect lists for the last couple of years thanks to his disciplined approach at the plate and intriguing raw power that he is only beginning to tap into. Currently more of a doubles hitter, Morrison should see his home runs steadily rise in the coming years because he has the strength and swing to produce plenty of big flies. He is also a fundamentally sound defensive first baseman.

2009 was expected to be a breakout year for Morrison and while it was in some ways, he missed time and managed only eight long balls in 278 at-bats at AA. However, Morrison still managed an outstanding 63:46 BB:K ratio and, as usual, picked up plenty of doubles. If his power never develops as expected, he still has a chance of being a John Olerud type player, but I do think he will eventually get to around 30 home runs a season in his prime.

Morrison is close to Major League ready and Florida does not exactly have any blocking him. Still, because he missed time last year expect Morrison to spend some time in AAA and reach the bigs around the All-Star break. Morrison's on-base skills and quick bat should translate well in the majors and help make the transition fairly smooth, even if he is a bit rushed.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 1: Catchers

Even after graduating Matt Wieters to the majors there are still more impact prospects at catcher than any other position in baseball, except possibly center-field. Three catchers made my top 10 overall prospects and 13 made the top 100. They vary from defensive wizards to sluggers who just get by with the glove. Here are some brief profiles of the best catching prospects in baseball. The numbers within the parenthesis signify their ranking against all prospects, not just catchers.


1. Buster Posey - Giants (3)

The minor leagues are currently teeming with high-impact catching prospects, but even in that crowded field, Posey manages to stand out. He was nearly taken first overall in the 2008 draft after a monster junior season at Florida State, and ended up going 5th to a very happy San Francisco club. Now on the cusp of the majors, Posey has proven to be even better than scouts anticipated.

Although his receiving skills behind the plate are a little rough around the edges, he should develop into a plus defender. His bat, however, is his calling card. He has a quick swing and a disciplined approach at the plate, resulting in a high on-base percentage and lots of doubles. He also has above average power for a catcher and I anticipate him to average roughly 20 home runs a season in the majors.

Posey is knocking on the door of the big leagues and will likely spend a large chunk of 2010 with the Giants. He thrived in AAA after a mid-season promotion, only a year after being drafted, and should return there to begin the year. Once San Francisco is satisfied with his ability to handle their hard-throwing staff, expect him to be in the big leagues to stay.


2. Jesus Montero - Yankees (4)

When FIP Lies

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is one of my favorite baseball statistics. It does exactly what it is supposed to do and does it with surprising effectiveness and reliability. It is one of the first things I look at when I want to gauge a pitcher's true level of performance. In fact I think that many statistically minded baseball thinkers have come to rely on FIP as the backbone of most pitching related analysis. However, I do not think that FIP is totally infallible.

When I am bored one of the things I will do to pass the time is scroll through fangraph's statistics pages and just look for something interesting. This is exactly how my article on cutters evolved, and that article has probably gotten more positive feedback than anything I have written recently. I was looking through FIPs and started to see a couple of trends that I felt were worth pointing out.