The Kids Are Alright

One of the best -- and also most frustrating -- things about baseball, is that over time, things always end up like they should. In that way, baseball is like life.

Over the course of 162 grueling games, the best teams will win, the Albert Pujolses will break out of their slumps, the and the Justin Turners will no longer hit .500 with runners in scoring position. It is not like football, where you only need to get through 16 games and can find a Maurice Jones-Drew out of nowhere. It's not like basketball or hockey where half the teams make the postseason. In baseball, six months will usually allow the best teams to prevail and for just enough time for magical fairy dust to wear off.

This is particularly poignant at this moment, as our Mets crash and burn in spectacular fashion (though personally I prefer this scenario to a late season collapse).


The other night, we all watched Dillon Gee struggle epically in his start against the Phillies. Gee was a great story for a while, but for those of us who were more than causal observers, we knew that he wasn't just an extraordinary kind of "gamer" or that he hadn't figured out "how to win" better than the next major league pitcher. Ultimately, you knew that he was going to gravitate toward his actual talent level. Perhaps, Gee will be quite good in the majors. Perhaps Gee has grown over time to become a better pitcher than he was in the minor leagues. But right now, he's sporting a 4.37 ERA, which is a lot closer to what you'd expect for Gee than the 3.32 ERA he had on July 1st. Most likely, he will become, to paraphrase Dennis Green, "who we thought he was."

The reason for this lengthy introduction is because as the Mets play out the string here in late August and September, most fans, myself included, begin to have their thoughts turn to the 2012 season. Thoughts of stars returning from injuries, discussions about free agents, and analysis of minor league prospects will ensue as we assess the strengths and weaknesses of our organization. We here at Fonzie Forever have always consistently stressed that the most important thing that an organization needs to do before making a plan for the next year is to make an honest assessment of there they are TODAY.
As an example, we all remember the Winter and Spring before the 2010 season. For a few months, the Mets maintained the status quo -- they acted for months as if they thought they had a shot to make the playoffs in 2010 and that all they needed to do was patch the holes. They signed Jason Bay to a large, lucrative contract -- one which I at the time predicted would cost Omar Minaya his job. They signed or acquired players such as Alex Cora, Elmer Dessens, Henry Blanco, Gary Mathews Jr., Frank Catalanotto, and Rod Barajas. Those players were, for the most part, players that you might acquire if you THINK you can contend and you need to fill out your bench, bullpen, or Triple-A roster. However, for the 2010 Mets, each and every one of those acquisitions ranged from mistake to disaster. The Mets behavior that offseason wasn't anchored in reality at all, and we here at Fonzie Forever said it every step of the way:

With the health of Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Jose Reyes all uncertain, there was no way a coherent plan could have been developed for the 2010 season. Under any set of circumstances, they were unlikely to succeed. Even if Santana, Beltran, and Reyes all came back strong, the Mets would also need David Wright to return to form, Mike Pelfrey to continue his growth, and for other players to step up.

The Mets, as we've said here before, were very fortunate in 2010. Out of nowhere, we discovered a quality major league center fielder in Angel Pagan; a high quality starter in RA Dickey; David Wright returned to form as an all-star caliber third baseman; Ike Davis had a wildly successful rookie year; and Carlos Beltran returned from his surgery and showed that he had a chance to contribute in 2011.

The 2011 edition of our Mets has been similarly successful, though their successes have been subtle, or modest, or in far away cities such as Binghamton or Port St. Lucie. Leaving aside any discussion of Madoff and the Wilpon's financial trouble -- about which no independent blogger can truly say make any predictions -- the Mets organization as a whole is in a much stronger place today than it was at this time last season.

Obviously, the major league roster now is not as talented as the one we fielded in April -- Davis and Reyes are hurt, while Beltran and K-Rod have been traded -- and not every prospect has advanced his standing. However, from the low minors to the major leagues, there have been a great deal of successes.

Below, I am going to take a look at some of the players who have made significant gains or significantly improved their stock in the last year. Undoubtedly, some of these names will be familiar to casual fans -- and others only to statheads. For space reasons, I'm not going to be able to go over everyone in the low minors, but limit myself to those players already on the major league roster or in the higher minor leagues.

I am proud to report that, for the first time in a while, I am very happy about the strength of the organization in general. An organization does not need to consistently produce super stars in order to be useful -- and in fact, in New York, it is even less important that they do -- because the development of useful, cheap, cost-controlled young players allows you the financial flexibility to make moves elsewhere. Now, on to the players:

Stock Up

Lucas Duda: You can count me as one of the many observers who did not think that Duda would amount to too much in the majors. Before 2010, Duda was a defensively-challenged corner outfielder who at the age of 23 posted an 808 OPS in Double-A. Then, something clicked. People have speculated that Duda had gotten over an injury, but since the bell rung in 2010 -- over 800 at-bats later -- he's been a very, very good hitter. He put up a 999 OPS in Triple-A last year, a 1011 OPS in Triple-A this year, and has hit .275/.345/.464 in the majors this year. In the last 45 games -- a decent proxy for since he's gotten regular playing time -- he's hit .300/.376/.531, which is outstanding.

Nobody is going to project Duda to post a 900 OPS over the course of a full season, but it's pretty clear now that Duda can hit, and that I was wrong about him. It remains to be seen whether Duda's glove will be good enough for the outfield (fangraphs has his career UZR/150 in the outfield at an atrocious -32.9 over a small sample size), but it is clear that Duda's stock is WAY WAY up and that he is a major leaguer.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: Another player who took his enormous strides of 2010 and solidified them in 2011 was Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Considered an overachiever by many, Kirk was not highly regarded even after posting an 847 OPS in Double-A at the age of 22. Scouting Book called him a fourth outfielder, while Keith Law, who strongly weighs scouting and tools in his ranking, did not place Kirk in his Mets Top 10 before the 2010 season.

The Captain, however, improved on his great 2010 season with a stellar 2011 season before going down with an injury. In 53 games, he batted .298/.403/.505 -- a batting line that will play anywhere, but is fabulous for a 23 year old center fielder. He underwent labrum surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in midseason, and there are substantial questions about how he will recover, but he has shown that, if healthy, he has a bright future.

The Big Three Pitching Prospects -- Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Zack Wheeler: Much virtual ink has been spilled already on these three, so I will be brief, but suffice to say that each of these three have taken big steps forward this year. All three have good "stuff" according to scouts, and have backed it up with their performance on the field.

Harvey, my favorite of the three, has struck out 59 batters in 51 innings in Double-A, including 7 shutout innings yesterday. He's been a little unlucky with balls in play, but with a strikeout to walk ratio of 59-15, he is having one of the best pitching prospect seasons I've seen. Familia may have been even better, with 63 strikeouts in 48 innings and an 11 inning shutout streak of his own in Double-A. Finally, Wheeler, the project of the three, is also striking out more than a batter per inning for the Single-A St. Lucie Mets. Toby Hyde was very impressed with his last start:

His fastball sat 94-96 mph with a few 93 mixed in later and one 97 as well early. He showed both the ability to throw it down with run and sink and throw it shoulder-height to change batters’ eye-level and produce swings and misses. Early on, his curveball was 77 mph with bite, by the end of his outing he was throwing it in the low 80s. It was nasty.

I try not to engage in hyperbole, but this is the best crop of Mets pitching prospects that I can recall seeing. All of them, in my opinion, compare favorably to Pelfrey (who, in his own right, was an impressive minor leaguer) and even to Jon Niese (who I was a big fan of from even the beginning).

Josh Satin: Although he doesn't profile to be an impact player any time soon, Satin has transformed himself from a non-factor into a player who can contribute on a major league team. After a relatively unremarkable minor league career, where he posted good-not-great numbers at each minor league level while being a little old for each level, Satin has exploded at the dish this year. He posted a 962 OPS at Double-A before his promotion to Triple-A. While with Buffalo, he's put up a respectable OPS of 808. That mark includes a .392 on-base percentage.

Zach Lutz: Similarly, organizational soldier Lutz made it to Triple-A and has posted an OPS of 933. It was just two seasons ago that Lutz was a non-factor, posting an 822 OPS in High-A. He's been quite good in Buffalo this year, and may find a way to be a useful major leaguer.

Chris Schwinden: Although Schwinden is not as good as his stats would indicate this season, he's taken a big step forward this season for Triple-A Buffalo. Schwinden last season posted a 5.56 ERA in Double-A, and the year before spent the majority of the season in Low-A Savannah. This year, however, Schwinden has handled his promotion to Triple-A with aplomb, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings -- all of which are career bests. The former 22nd Round draft pick may make good.

Jordany Valdespin: The 23 year old Valdespin was featured here a year and a half ago where we said:

There are a lot of reasons to like Valdespin. Obviously, his Savannah performance was good. More importantly, being rated the "best athlete" in the system...ahead of the likes of Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte, Kirk Nieuwenheis and others says a lot about his tools...In addition, he had a very strong Winter League performance...All of these things point to a bright future for Jordany. Although it could be seen as an indictment of his talent that he has not yet reached High-A ball entering his age 22 season, his physical abilities and variety of talents (speed and defense) make him an intriguing prospect.

Jordany is a project, but this year has taken a huge stride forward. After ending the 2010 season with a poor 698 OPS between Single-A and Double-A, he hit a robust .297/.341/.483 for Double-A Binghamton earlier this year. I think that the talk of Valdespin as a potential major leaguer next season is premature, but he is still only 23 and may still have room to grow.

Reese Havens: Back in 2009, when Reese Havens and Ike Davis were coming off their first full seasons in the minor leagues, we here at Fonzie Forever could not understand why Davis was being held in higher regard than Havens. We pointed out here that they were picked only four selections apart in the 2008 draft, both had hit well in the minors, and Havens had the positional adjustment advantage (second base versus first base). However, Havens has been plagued by injuries since then, and his stock -- through early this year -- had dropped substantially.

However, I am glad to report that Havens has come back strong in the last two months, and has upped his batting line in Double-A to .287/.370/.420. Even better, he's gained momentum as the year has gone on, posting a line of .323/.402/.430 since the All-Star Break. Granted, he will have to prove that his injury problems will not derail his once promising career, but Havens stock has certainly risen since April. He's a second baseman capable of posting an OPS of 800 or better, and those are exceedingly rare.

Justin Turner: Although by no stretch would I ever want Justin Turner starting on my contending team, my man @redturn2 has finally gotten the opportunity to show that he deserves to be in the major leagues. Turner hasn't hit a lick since his third week in the majors and his OPS is now down to 678 -- however, he plays decent defense and is fun to be around and can be a piece on a winner. ZiPS projected Turner for a 697 OPS in preseason, which is on the money as usual, but that is fine for organizational depth.

Stock Down

As I mentioned, not everyone in the Mets organization has been all puppies and rainbows in 2011. It's been a tough year for Fernando Martinez, while we watched Jenrry Mejia undergo Tommy John surgery. Stephen Matz, the Mets first pick (second round) of the 2009 draft has had some soreness in his recovery from his own Tommy John. I still believe that these players have a chance to contribute (particularly Mejia, who observers believe can still be a big impact pitcher) but their fortunes have dimmed somewhat since this time last year.

But in general?

A hallmark of a good organization is not just in the superstars at the major league level or super prospects in the minors, but in the depth of the rosters at each level. If you trade a Beltran, do you have a Duda to fill in? If Davis gets hurt, do you have a Daniel Murphy to take his space or do you need to pay a Mike Jacobs?

In that sense, it's been a very, very strong year for the organization. Aside from the one big question mark surrounding the Mets' financial situation, this is a team that could probably start making some noise as early as next year. Provided that the majority of players come back reasonably healthy, this is what the Mets squad could look like next year without a single addition from free agency.

1B Davis
2B Murphy
SS Reyes
3B Wright
LF Bay
CF Pagan
RF Duda
C Thole/Paulino

SP Santana, Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Capuano
RP Parnell, Beato, ...

The team as constituted above is not going to win the National League East. The Mets still have significant weaknesses when it comes to the starting rotation and the bullpen, and the Jason Bay contract will haunt the organization for another two years, but given average health that team will not be terrible. And more importantly, it's not constituted so poorly that it makes me want to run to the Mets offices at Citi Field and say "Are you mad?! Trade everything that's not nailed down!! You guys are crazy for keeping up this charade!"

Generally speaking, the players mentioned above have shown that the Mets are going to be less likely to suffer should they be befallen by a major injury. The days of Alex Cora and Miguel Cairo seem to be past, for now. And even better, the above guys, if we need them to play, are going to be making the minimum salary. That is why Angel Pagan and RA Dickey have been the most valuable Mets over the last couple of years -- they are providing value and barely costing anything.

These kids are alright. Luckily, all the trading of stars and doom and gloom at the major league level hasn't done anything to dampen the future prospects of our minor leaguers. Granted, reinforcements would have been nice in 2009, or 2008, but once again, that's part of the beauty of baseball.

Prospects, or major leaguers, or injuries, or luck, don't develop because you NEED them to at that moment. That's one of the beautiful things about baseball. Tragically, Daniel Murphy got injured again this year, just when we needed him. The Mets made silly moves in advance of 2010 because they thought they needed to compete, and damn the fact that the roster just wasn't good enough at that point. Where are we on the success cycle?

These kids are alright. The ones above -- and many others, who I did not get a chance to mention -- had a good year this year. I am excited to watch our boys play out the string here in late August and September, and hopefully, they'll be here contributing to the major league team very soon.

But not because we need them to. Because they are ready.

Time to Shut Niese Down

A couple weeks ago, Jerry Manuel was asked how he felt about capping the workload this season for Jon Niese. His answer was thoughtful:

“They kind of have to kind to convince me,” Manuel said. “Because I believe a guy should learn how to pitch. The more he gets out there, the better pitcher he’s going to become for you.”

“Because if you’ve got a guy pitching well, and you’re trying to win games, then that puts some shackles on you,” Manuel said. “That’s tough. What if a guy’s throwing a no-hitter?”

“I don’t have any problems with the dialogue or what have you,” he said. “If the majority feels that [he should be limited], and proves that this is going to make something better for whatever, I don’t see a problem with that.” Source: NJ.com

I happen to still like Manuel, and that was a reasonable argument made at a time when it made sense. A dialogue is good, and you might want to use your instinct and senses in addition to looking at a strict numerical pattern - especially considering Niese has hurled around 180 innings in a season before (in 2008).

Young Jon Niese is Old Andy Pettitte

Size/Handedness
Jon Niese is listed at 6'4", 215 lbs. Left-handed.
Andy Pettitte is listed at 6'5", 225 lbs. Left-handed.




Pitches/Repetoire
Over the last few years, Andy Pettitte has featured an 89 mph fastball (55% of the time), a 84 mph cutter (22% of the time), a 75 mph curveball (13% of the time) and a changeup once in a while at around 80 mph.

Jon Niese has fallen in love with the cutter, and throws it more, but otherwise offers almost an identical repertoire. He's been throwing his fastball at 90 mph (56% of the time), a 87 mph cutter (34%), a 76 mph curveball (5%) and a changeup once in a while at 82 mph.

Niese throws harder than Pettitte does today at age 37, and trades some curveballs for cutters, but aside from that, they are mostly identical. I imagine that as the season goes on, Niese will begin to work more curveballs into his gameplan. It is a great pitch. In fact, he still claims that the curveball is his "best pitch."[1]

Signature Facial Feature
Pettitte: Funny nose
Niese: Funny nose

Distribution of Outs
Pettitte has always been great at getting ground ball outs. Since 2002, when we have batted ball data on fangraphs, Pettitte has induced ground balls 49% of the time as compared to 30% fly balls. Niese so far in his career has gotten ground balls 43% of the time along with 34% fly balls. As a young grasshopper with much to learn, one might expect that Niese is still learning how to get major league hitters to pound the ball into the ground.

Other Pitch Data
Pettitte has changed a lot as his career has progressed, pitching more to contact with the cutter as he has aged. As such, over the last four seasons or so, Pettitte has gotten batters to swing at pitches outside the zone around 25% of the time, while throwing around 60% first pitch strikes. Jon Niese has gotten batters to chase 25.7% of the time and thrown 61.8% first pitch strikes.

For his career, Pettitte has had a lot more swing and miss stuff than Niese. Since 2002, batters have only made contact with Pettitte's pitches outside of the strike zone 53% of the time they have swung at it, compared to Niese's 66%. However, Pettitte's contact percentage on those pitches over the last two seasons has been 58% and 63%.

Conclusion
It appears to me that Jon Niese pitches almost identically to the version of Andy Pettitte that we saw in Houston and while in his second stint with the Yankees.

Believe it or not, despite being a Yankee and a champion, I think Andy Pettitte has been largely underappreciated by the national media. A quick glance at Pettitte's performance while outside of the high-octane AL East really tells you all you need to know about how good his stats might have been: 519 innings, 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.4 k/9.

As the above indicates, raw numbers don't tell the whole story about how good Andy has been over the course of his career. The 231 career wins are great, but he's also got the 16th best adjusted ERA+ among all active pitchers in baseball, a list which includes relievers. Limit it only to starters, and he's tied for 14th. Limit it only to pitchers who have already seen their "decline phase" in their career, eliminating young studs like Haren and Sabathia, and he could be as high as 9th.

If Jon Niese continues to pitch as intelligently as he has pitched thus far, with a repetoire which is harder and more dangerous than Andy Pettitte's, we could really be on to something. To state the obvious, Niese would be lucky to have half the career Pettitte has. But if he can throw three pitches, and work both sides of the plate like he did against the Cubs, and show us that he'll pitch with his brain as well as his arm - he could have a long and successful career.


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[1] He said so on WFAN last week.

The Most Important Thing From... Game 3, Mets v. Marlins, April 8th

The most important thing was...

That Jon Niese was great tonight. Reading the box score in the morning newspaper tomorrow will not give a fair indication of how good the kid was tonight.

Hoping For a Niese Debut

I know, corny title, but I didn't have time to work up a better pun.

I am very excited for the debut of Jon Niese tonight. I have been a big fan of his for a while, and I am glad to see that he is being thrust into the spotlight. I believe he is ready for it and, in fact, believe he might actually end up being our third best starter this season.

We took a very in depth look at Jon Niese in January, and determined that he wasn't getting the credit he deserved as a prospect. And he still isn't.

A Rotation Rotation and Musings on Velocity

Per Metsblog:

According to Marty Noble of MLB.com, a person with knowledge of the Mets pitching plans says they might move Jon Niese to the third spot in the rotation, with Maine and Perez to follow.

…if this were the case, then it looks like Pelfrey would remain in the number two spot in the rotation…either way, it appears the Mets are at least recognizing the problems behind Johan Santana in the rotation…

Original Post, 6:41 pm:

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York says Mike Pelfrey will not be starting the second game of the season against the Marlins at Citi Field.

…interesting…i wonder if John Maine will get the start over Pelfrey, and what this means for the rest of the rotation…

Pelfrey is expected to start on Friday night against the Rays at Tropicana Field, followed by Oliver Perez and Jon Niese on Saturday against the Orioles in Sarasota.

In addition, Rubin says both Omir Santos and Fernando Martinez will start the season at Triple-A Buffalo.

To follow Rubin at his new Twitter account for ESPN New York, click here.

As far as I can tell this is a non-story. It just looks to me that Manuel wanted to break up the lefties in the rotation. If the original rotation was Santana-Pelfrey-Maine-Perez-Niese, you'd have three lefties in a row. Now, it alternates. You'll still have two lefties in a row later in the year when you stop skipping the #5 spot in the rotation, but at least the second lefty will be Santana.

However, the blurb about the order of the rotation got me thinking. Provided Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, Ollie, and Niese are the five starters - is this the hardest throwing group of Mets starters we've ever seen? I decided to take a look at some average fastball velocities by year. Thank you as always, fangraphs.

Last year we had Livan Hernandez in the rotation instead of Niese, so they automatically lose to the 2010 version. In 2007 the staff was anchored by Glavine and included Orlando Hernandez in addition to the Pelfrey-Maine-Perez triumvirate. The 2006 team featured Pedro, Glavine, Trachsel, Orlando Hernandez and Maine as their top five. A quick inspection turns up no challenger in the recent years.

You might actually have to reach back a whole decade, or more (if ever) to find a Mets staff with more prodigious fastballs than this one. The 2005 team has a chance, if you remember Kris Benson or Victor Zambrano throwing particularly hard. I didn't. Benson averaged 90.2 in 2005 to my surprise, but Zambrano averaged 89.6. With Glavine, Pedro, and Kaz Ishii making up the rest of the starting five, you know they didn't bring as much heat at this year's edition.


I thought the 2002 team maybe had a chance to challenge with a bunch of one-and-done Mets in Pedro Astacio, Jeff D'Amico and Shawn Estes supplementing Trachsel and Al Leiter... but Astacio (89.6), D'Amico (87.6), and Trachsel (87) were all below my expectations. For some reason I remembered Astacio being a hard thrower - but memories fade, especially in an era of Met irrelevance.

So, with fangraphs pitch data ending at 2002, that brings us back to this year's squad. With Maine averaging 92.1 on his fastball in 2008 and 91.3 last year, he'll be around there again. Even the injured version of Oliver Perez averaged 90.0. For his career it is a robust 91.2. Although much has been made of the decline of Johan Santana, his heater averaged 90.5 last year after a season of 91.2 before that. Pelfrey leads the way at 92.6, while Niese brings up the rear at 89.6 last season.

Not that this necessarily portends a good year - throwing harder means nothing on its own - but it's something that stood out to me upon review.

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Note 1: I realize that injuries to intended starters might skew this - comparing our projected top five to the actual top five of previous years. But with Nelson Figueroa (88.2) and Fernando Nieve (92.2) the likely replacements, it doesn't really matter.

Note 2: I think the 2000 rotation might have had a chance if Leiter and Hampton threw a couple of miles per hour harder in their primes than they did by the time 2002 rolled around. The 1999 team with Orel Hershiser and Rick Reed taking 40% of the starts likely didn't have a chance either.

I would love for someone who has been around a little longer to take a shot at identifying a Mets' starting rotation who may have thrown as hard as this one. Maybe one of the historians over at Faith and Fear? Could Doc and Darling and El Sid bring the heat?

The Mets Most Critical Spring Training Issue: Holding On To Figgy

Howard Megdal published a great article yesterday regarding the Mets fifth starter competition, and may have accidentally highlighted what I believe to be the most important and interesting issue surrounding the Mets this spring -- keeping Nelson Figueroa the property of the New York Mets.

(I know articles about Mejia, Ike Davis, and Fernando are much sexier, but sometimes the boring issues are the most important)

In his blog for SNY.tv, Megdal points out that the Mets have an "embarrassment of riches" competing for the fifth spot in the pitching rotation. And he's absolutely right.

The most interesting part of the article, however, was the angle that he took on the topic. After basically assuming that all the candidates are good and viable (which they are) he discussed the competition in the most important context: "given the question marks with the first four pitchers in the rotation, the team's ability to hold onto [the fifth starter candidates] has to be taken into account."

The Fifth Starter Competition, And Why Nobody Should Be Listening to Jerry Manuel

There has been a lot of talk about the fifth starter spot this spring, but few of the reports have taken a large-scale look at the situation as a whole. So let's set the record straight and figure out as much as we can about the candidates right now. Below are the spring training statistics for the four men who are can be considered true candidates for the spot:

Fernando Nieve: 3 games, 9 IP, 12 hits, 6 runs, 5 bb, 2 K
Nelson Figueroa: 3 games, 8 IP, 4 hits, 0 runs, 3 bb, 9 K
Jonathan Niese: 3 games, 7.2 IP, 10 hits, 6 earned runs, 4 bb, 7 K
Hisanori Takahashi: 2 games, 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 bb, 9 K

Obviously, a few spring innings are not going to tell you much about the player posting them. What is interesting, however, is that in the four men, we have the four most hilariously stereotypical rotation contenders imaginable:


Fernando Nieve -- The Former Top Prospect, resurrecting his career
Nelson Figueroa -- The Journeyman, struggling to prove himself
Jonathan Niese -- The Real Prospect, trying to break into the Show
Hisanori Takahashi -- The Japanese League Veteran , shrouded in mystery.


We've got righties and we've got lefties. We have old and young. We have hard throwers and soft-tossers. It's great.


Who else is in favor of tossing Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine overboard and just going with these guys? At the very least, we could have an interesting Mighty Ducks-style story on our hands. Especially if we include Ryota Igarashi, aka "Swallows Man."

Storyline aside, there is one very important issue. The most important issue, in fact, one which I believe that the beat writers and bloggers have been avoiding for the most part:

What are our goals for this season and beyond, and what do each player offer us to help us toward that goal?

If our objective was to "win now" we could hand the job to the best pitcher, toss the other three in the bullpen, and promote Jennry Mejia right away.

If our objective is to play for 2011, we should send Jon Niese to Triple-A and plug whoever will sell the most tickets into the fifth starter slot.

If, as I imagine, our objective is somewhere in between, the picture becomes less clear, and it is important for us to consider what each of the players offer. It appears that the Mets consider Takahashi and Nieve as candidates for the bullpen, but not Figueroa. According to Brian Costa of the Star-Ledger, Fernando Nieve is the only candidate who is out of options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without clearing waivers. Each player also offers us a different potential ceiling and floor for their performance.

The one person whose input we should not be taking into account is Jerry Manuel. This is not because I don't like Jerry - in fact, I think he's not a bad manager. However, it is inherent in his position that he wants to win NOW, without regard to the future development of our prospects and without regard to service time and free agency. I don't blame him. If my job depended on how the Mets performed in the first 40 games, I would probably do the same thing. This is precisely why we need to adhere to the manager/GM system which we allegedly have in effect. Manuel, despite all his sneaky comments to the press, particularly about Mejia, shouldn't have much, if any, input into the final shape of our roster.

All of these players are much more than their spring statistics would indicate, but delving into each would take another post altogether. But knowing just the basics, a few things are clear. Fernando Nieve and Hisanori Takahashi will be on the roster Opening Day. If I had it my way, both would be in the bullpen and Nelson Figueroa would be the fifth starter. Jon Niese would have a few months to hone his craft in Triple-A.

This option allows us to a) retain all our players, b) allows Niese to mature as a pitcher, and c) gives Figueroa the shot at the rotation that everyone thinks he deserves. Just as importantly, it moves two potentially powerful forces to the bullpen. Seeing as most pitchers are more effective when relieving rather than starting, Nieve and Takahashi could potentially provide a huge boost to our weakest unit. Takahashi, in particular, would provide us with a second left-handed option in addition to Pedro Feliciano.

A bullpen of Frankie Rodriguez, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Ryota Igarashi, Nieve and Takahashi is deep and provides a variety of different looks.

For the best chance of winning now, holding on to our player properties, and allowing Jon Niese to reach his potential, this arrangement seems to be the obvious answer.

Mets Prospect-itis: The Anti-Mets Prospect Bias

People tend to feel very strongly about Mets prospects for some reason. And it doesn't seem to be exclusive to Mets fans. If you ask someone who follows baseball and prospects what they think of the Mets minor league system, they will almost always tell you one of two things:

Mets prospects are overrated.

or

Mets system is underrated.


Cognitive dissonance, I know, is setting in. How could those BOTH be true? Well... my observations have led me to discover Mets Prospect-itis. Here are the symptoms: