2010 Top Prospects pt. 2: First Basemen

As would be expected, first base boasts some of the best hitters in the minor leagues, although this group is not quite as strong as in previous years. In fact, I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that 5 of the top 6 players on my list had disappointing '09 seasons, and that trend continued further down as well. Regardless there are a lot of sluggers here to get excited about. While there's no potential Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard in this group that is likely to be a dominating force very quickly, I do see several players that could easily become middle of the order hitters. The numbers in parenthesis show where the player ranks among all prospects in baseball, not just those at his position.

Pt 1: Catchers


1. Logan Morrison - Marlins (14)

Morrison has quietly been moving up prospect lists for the last couple of years thanks to his disciplined approach at the plate and intriguing raw power that he is only beginning to tap into. Currently more of a doubles hitter, Morrison should see his home runs steadily rise in the coming years because he has the strength and swing to produce plenty of big flies. He is also a fundamentally sound defensive first baseman.

2009 was expected to be a breakout year for Morrison and while it was in some ways, he missed time and managed only eight long balls in 278 at-bats at AA. However, Morrison still managed an outstanding 63:46 BB:K ratio and, as usual, picked up plenty of doubles. If his power never develops as expected, he still has a chance of being a John Olerud type player, but I do think he will eventually get to around 30 home runs a season in his prime.

Morrison is close to Major League ready and Florida does not exactly have any blocking him. Still, because he missed time last year expect Morrison to spend some time in AAA and reach the bigs around the All-Star break. Morrison's on-base skills and quick bat should translate well in the majors and help make the transition fairly smooth, even if he is a bit rushed.

Pecota Be Kidding Me

The 2010 PECOTA projections aren't too favorable to the boys in Blue and Orange.

NL EAST   W   L
Phillies     88 74
Braves     85 77
Nationals 82 80
Mets       77 85
Marlins   76 86

Oh if only we signed Marquis! I'm not too worried though. Check out how PECOTA guessed the 2009 season would play out.

NL EAST    W L
Mets          92 70
Phillies       87 75
Braves      87 75
Nationals   79 83
Marlins      72 90

Thanks to the Marquis-less Nationals the Mets actually finished last season in fourth place. In other words: shut up computer.

Jonathan Mayo Is a Cool Dude

Roger is our twitter guy here at Fonzie Forever. Here is his conversation from today with Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com regarding my blog post from last night. I was baffled that Mayo could leave Fernando Martinez off a Top 50 Prospects List:

@fonzieforever Love your blog reaction. That's why I do the list. For the record, F-Mart not on b/c he's no longer a rookie.

@JonathanMayoB3 Ah, well then! Thank you.

@JonathanMayoB3 Although I must ask how FMart is no longer a rookie. He only had 91 AB's.

@fonzieforever Service time. More than 45 days...

@JonathanMayoB3 Keith Law, according to this thing said he just made rookie status http://bit.ly/a4DlsR Yay semantics!

@fonzieforever Yeah, about to tweet my mea culpa to having that wrong. OK, mea culpa time: Been saying Fernando Martinez doesn't qualify for Top 50, turns out I'm wrong. He is a rookie in 2010! Apologies!

I didn't think Fernando had used up his rookie eligibility yet. My Fernando love - vindicated.

Fernando Tatis Thoughts

No time for a real entry tonight, so here is a quick blurb on Fernando Tatis. I hope to expand on this later.

I am very glad we brought him back. He's the ideal 4th guy on our bench right now (after Cora, Matthews, and Catcher) because he gives us the flexibility to do whatever we want with the 5th spot on the bench (platoon someone, get a pinch hitter, etc.)

Howard Megdal (who I just happen to agree with on almost every issue... it's infuriating) already wrote up an entry on Tatis as the Mets appear on the verge of bringing him back for 2010.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 1: Catchers

Even after graduating Matt Wieters to the majors there are still more impact prospects at catcher than any other position in baseball, except possibly center-field. Three catchers made my top 10 overall prospects and 13 made the top 100. They vary from defensive wizards to sluggers who just get by with the glove. Here are some brief profiles of the best catching prospects in baseball. The numbers within the parenthesis signify their ranking against all prospects, not just catchers.


1. Buster Posey - Giants (3)

The minor leagues are currently teeming with high-impact catching prospects, but even in that crowded field, Posey manages to stand out. He was nearly taken first overall in the 2008 draft after a monster junior season at Florida State, and ended up going 5th to a very happy San Francisco club. Now on the cusp of the majors, Posey has proven to be even better than scouts anticipated.

Although his receiving skills behind the plate are a little rough around the edges, he should develop into a plus defender. His bat, however, is his calling card. He has a quick swing and a disciplined approach at the plate, resulting in a high on-base percentage and lots of doubles. He also has above average power for a catcher and I anticipate him to average roughly 20 home runs a season in the majors.

Posey is knocking on the door of the big leagues and will likely spend a large chunk of 2010 with the Giants. He thrived in AAA after a mid-season promotion, only a year after being drafted, and should return there to begin the year. Once San Francisco is satisfied with his ability to handle their hard-throwing staff, expect him to be in the big leagues to stay.


2. Jesus Montero - Yankees (4)

MLB.com's Top 50 Prospect List

As the title of this post might indicate, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo released his list of the Top 50 Prospects in baseball last night. I'll save you the trouble of clicking through - there are no Mets on it. There is only one Yankee.

Here's the list:

Rank Name Team
1 Jason Heyward ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg WAS
3 Mike Stanton FLA
4 Buster Posey SF
5 Brian Matusz BAL
6 Desmond Jennings TB
7 Neftali Feliz TEX
8 Pedro Alvarez PIT
9 Justin Smoak TEX
10 Madison Bumgarner SF
11 Carlos Santana CLE
12 Alcides Escobar MIL
13 Wade Davis TB
14 Domonic Brown PHI
15 Dustin Ackley SEA
16 Brett Wallace TOR
17 Kyle Drabek TOR
18 Martin Perez TEX
19 Jesus Montero NYY
20 Jeremy Hellickson TB
21 Jarrod Parker ARI
22 Starlin Castro CHI
23 Christian Friedrich COL
24 Tim Beckham TB
25 Logan Morrison FLA
26 Brett Lawrie MIL
27 Ryan Westmoreland BOS
28 Casey Kelly BOS
29 Aaron Hicks MIN
30 Yonder Alonso CIN
31 Jason Castro HOU
32 Mike Moustakas KC
33 Wil Myers KC
34 Julio Teheran ATL
35 Michael Taylor OAK
36 Dee Gordon LAD
37 Chris Carter OAK
38 Austin Jackson DET
39 Tanner Scheppers TEX
40 Drew Storen WAS
41 Aaron Crow KC
42 Jacob Turner DET
43 Mike Montgomery KC
44 Jhoulys Chacin COL
45 Jose Iglesias BOS
46 Michael Brantley CLE
47 Phillippe Aumont PHI
48 Juan Francisco CIN
49 Ethan Martin LAD
50 Jaff Decker SD

Jon Garland Signs With San Diego

Per mlbtraderumors:

The Padres signed Jon Garland to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2011. Garland earns $4.7MM in 2010, plus another $600K if San Diego buys out his $6.75MM mutual option for 2011.

I was against the Mets signing Garland this offseason -- but that was based on the premise that he would cost a lot more than that. Garland for one year, $5 million is a fantastic deal.

Garland has posted a FIP of between 4.24 and 4.76 every year for the last five years. He's been worth approximately 3 WAR per season over that span - with four of five years worth 2.4 WAR or more.

He's probably as safe a bet as anyone to post another season just like those - with an ERA around 4.50, earning a salary (according to the fangraphs calculations) of around $10 million as a free agent.

There are a lot of rumblings that Garland may not have wanted to come to the East Coast regardless of money - but you have to think that if Omar had offered him one year and $6 million guaranteed, he would have listened.

You have really got to wonder what is going on over there in Mets-land, now that we've missed out on Sheets and Garland. Is it part of a plan? Do free agents just not want to come to New York? I'm not ready to call for Omar's job yet, but it is curious to say the least to see Garland go to a last-place team for so little money.

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The above image was borrowed from Sons of Steve Garvey, which is actually a pretty funny read.

When FIP Lies

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is one of my favorite baseball statistics. It does exactly what it is supposed to do and does it with surprising effectiveness and reliability. It is one of the first things I look at when I want to gauge a pitcher's true level of performance. In fact I think that many statistically minded baseball thinkers have come to rely on FIP as the backbone of most pitching related analysis. However, I do not think that FIP is totally infallible.

When I am bored one of the things I will do to pass the time is scroll through fangraph's statistics pages and just look for something interesting. This is exactly how my article on cutters evolved, and that article has probably gotten more positive feedback than anything I have written recently. I was looking through FIPs and started to see a couple of trends that I felt were worth pointing out.

Who Is This Guy?: Kelvim Escobar

Who Is He?

Kelvim Escobar is a 33 year old (will turn 34 in April) right handed pitcher who was born in Venezuela.

Where Did He Come From?

Escobar came up through the Blue Jays farm system, striking out a lot of batters and always being a little young and a little wild for his level. He made his major league debut at the age of 21 and was fairly dominant out of the bullpen, saving 14 games that season.

For the next few years he bounced between the bullpen and starting rotation. From what I can tell, the Blue Jays knew that he could do either and moved him back and forth depending on their personnel. From 1998-2003 he made between zero and 30 starts each year. In 2002 he was the full time closer, notching 38 saves. In 1999 and 2003 he almost exclusively was a starter.

In 2004 he signed with Anaheim, who used him as a starting pitcher. That year he made 33 starts and pitched 208 innings, posting a 3.93 ERA, good for 10th in the league. In fact, he placed in the top ten in ERA two more times as well, placing 6th in 2006 (3.61) and 8th in 2007 (3.40).

2007 was his finest full season. He made 30 starts that year over 195 innings, going 18-7 with a 1.27 WHIP. As always, he struck out a lot of batters - 160 over 195 innings.

This is the Mets - So What's the Catch?

Ryan Garko and Roster Construction

We at Fonzie Forever have been in favor of bringing Ryan Garko on board here for a few months now. In early December, we pointed out:

Garko has a career .313 average and 887 OPS against left handed pitching - the perfect compliment to Dan Murphy in a platoon at first base. He's not a world-beater in general, being a 28-year-old first baseman with an average bat and average-to-below-average glove, but he has his uses.

More recently, Anthony DeRosa at Hot Foot pointed out that Mets fans on twitter are "almost unanimous" in their support of that move. But here at Fonzie Forever, we have a habit of challenging conventional wisdom. Going a level deeper - does acquiring Ryan Garko make sense?