Thursday, January 28, 2010's Top 50 Prospect List

As the title of this post might indicate,'s Jonathan Mayo released his list of the Top 50 Prospects in baseball last night. I'll save you the trouble of clicking through - there are no Mets on it. There is only one Yankee.

Here's the list:

Rank Name Team
1 Jason Heyward ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg WAS
3 Mike Stanton FLA
4 Buster Posey SF
5 Brian Matusz BAL
6 Desmond Jennings TB
7 Neftali Feliz TEX
8 Pedro Alvarez PIT
9 Justin Smoak TEX
10 Madison Bumgarner SF
11 Carlos Santana CLE
12 Alcides Escobar MIL
13 Wade Davis TB
14 Domonic Brown PHI
15 Dustin Ackley SEA
16 Brett Wallace TOR
17 Kyle Drabek TOR
18 Martin Perez TEX
19 Jesus Montero NYY
20 Jeremy Hellickson TB
21 Jarrod Parker ARI
22 Starlin Castro CHI
23 Christian Friedrich COL
24 Tim Beckham TB
25 Logan Morrison FLA
26 Brett Lawrie MIL
27 Ryan Westmoreland BOS
28 Casey Kelly BOS
29 Aaron Hicks MIN
30 Yonder Alonso CIN
31 Jason Castro HOU
32 Mike Moustakas KC
33 Wil Myers KC
34 Julio Teheran ATL
35 Michael Taylor OAK
36 Dee Gordon LAD
37 Chris Carter OAK
38 Austin Jackson DET
39 Tanner Scheppers TEX
40 Drew Storen WAS
41 Aaron Crow KC
42 Jacob Turner DET
43 Mike Montgomery KC
44 Jhoulys Chacin COL
45 Jose Iglesias BOS
46 Michael Brantley CLE
47 Phillippe Aumont PHI
48 Juan Francisco CIN
49 Ethan Martin LAD
50 Jaff Decker SD

The Yankees' Jesus Montero (who James Esatto spoke highly of in his Yankees Top 50 Prospect post) makes the list at #19. Fernando Martinez, Jennry Mejia, and others, miss the cut completely. For what it is worth, Mayo lists Mejia as #52.

Whether it is the ridiculous Anti-Mets Prospectitis (AMP for short) seeping into Mayo's work or what, I can't yet say. What we do know is this:

Wade Davis, who I spent an entire post comparing to our own Jonathon Niese is ranked THIRTEENTH OVERALL! Not only is he ahead of Niese, but he is at least 50 spots ahead according to Mayo.[1]

More egregiously, Fonzie Forever favorite Fernando (try saying that three times) Martinez does not crack the Top 60. Yes, that's right -- the 20-year-old outfielder who ranked 9th in the International League (AAA) in OPS did not make the list at all. We have pointed out a lot of reasons to love Fernando in the past: here, and here at least.

So who - among many others - did Mayo deem worthy of the list ahead of Fernando?

Yonder Alonso: A 22 year old first baseman who batted .295/.372/.457 in AA last year, and who some are questioning whether he is even a better prospect than Ike Davis.

Austin Jackson: The former Yankee farmhand who was 22 last year and posted a 759 OPS in AAA (the year before only 773 in AA).

Logan Morrison: Another first baseman, this one who posted an 853 OPS in AA as a 21 year old. Let me repeat that -- a lower OPS than Fernando while playing at a lower level of the minor leagues AND an easier defensive position.

Mike Moustakas: A former #2 overall pick who has done nothing in the minors for the Royals, last year hitting a ridiculous .250/.297/.421 in High-A at the age of 20.

I'm not saying any of these guys are not good prospects. They are all on this list for a reason - they ARE good prospects. However, Davis is on the list at #13, Morrison at #25, Alonso at #30, Moustakas at #32, and Jackson at #38. This is just from a cursory glance at the list.
I'm sure Mayo is awesome at his job. Hell, I'm not even the prospect expert on THIS blog - that's Esatto. However, I think you would be very hard pressed at this point to justify leaving Fernando or Mejia off any MLB Top 50 list.[2]

[1] We pointed out last time that Niese has always been a level ahead of Davis, and that there are no differences between the two which would justify an enormous ranking differential:

I am not arguing that Wade Davis is not a better prospect than Jon Niese. For what it's worth, I think he might be a hair better. But whether you prefer the stud right-hander who throws 92 with a great curveball or whether you prefer the left-hander who is younger and and has two plus off-speed pitches is a matter of taste. I don't see how it makes sense to call one Lackey and the other Jeff Suppan.

[2] To wit, I will repost John Sickels' blurb on Fernando from his Mets rankings:

People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He's made significant progress refining his tools.
And what we wrote at Fonzie Forever:
We are watching Fernando Martinez finally tap into the immense potential we've been told about for three years. If you told anyone that you had a 20 year-old in Triple-A and posting an OPS of 877, they would probably be willing to trade the farm for him. But in New York, the hype machine starts young and fizzles out quickly.

1 comment:

James Esatto said...

There's a lot I don't like on this list. I'll be publishing my own soon, in parts, and it will be many more names than 50.