The Kids Are Alright

One of the best -- and also most frustrating -- things about baseball, is that over time, things always end up like they should. In that way, baseball is like life.

Over the course of 162 grueling games, the best teams will win, the Albert Pujolses will break out of their slumps, the and the Justin Turners will no longer hit .500 with runners in scoring position. It is not like football, where you only need to get through 16 games and can find a Maurice Jones-Drew out of nowhere. It's not like basketball or hockey where half the teams make the postseason. In baseball, six months will usually allow the best teams to prevail and for just enough time for magical fairy dust to wear off.

This is particularly poignant at this moment, as our Mets crash and burn in spectacular fashion (though personally I prefer this scenario to a late season collapse).


The other night, we all watched Dillon Gee struggle epically in his start against the Phillies. Gee was a great story for a while, but for those of us who were more than causal observers, we knew that he wasn't just an extraordinary kind of "gamer" or that he hadn't figured out "how to win" better than the next major league pitcher. Ultimately, you knew that he was going to gravitate toward his actual talent level. Perhaps, Gee will be quite good in the majors. Perhaps Gee has grown over time to become a better pitcher than he was in the minor leagues. But right now, he's sporting a 4.37 ERA, which is a lot closer to what you'd expect for Gee than the 3.32 ERA he had on July 1st. Most likely, he will become, to paraphrase Dennis Green, "who we thought he was."

The reason for this lengthy introduction is because as the Mets play out the string here in late August and September, most fans, myself included, begin to have their thoughts turn to the 2012 season. Thoughts of stars returning from injuries, discussions about free agents, and analysis of minor league prospects will ensue as we assess the strengths and weaknesses of our organization. We here at Fonzie Forever have always consistently stressed that the most important thing that an organization needs to do before making a plan for the next year is to make an honest assessment of there they are TODAY.
As an example, we all remember the Winter and Spring before the 2010 season. For a few months, the Mets maintained the status quo -- they acted for months as if they thought they had a shot to make the playoffs in 2010 and that all they needed to do was patch the holes. They signed Jason Bay to a large, lucrative contract -- one which I at the time predicted would cost Omar Minaya his job. They signed or acquired players such as Alex Cora, Elmer Dessens, Henry Blanco, Gary Mathews Jr., Frank Catalanotto, and Rod Barajas. Those players were, for the most part, players that you might acquire if you THINK you can contend and you need to fill out your bench, bullpen, or Triple-A roster. However, for the 2010 Mets, each and every one of those acquisitions ranged from mistake to disaster. The Mets behavior that offseason wasn't anchored in reality at all, and we here at Fonzie Forever said it every step of the way:

With the health of Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Jose Reyes all uncertain, there was no way a coherent plan could have been developed for the 2010 season. Under any set of circumstances, they were unlikely to succeed. Even if Santana, Beltran, and Reyes all came back strong, the Mets would also need David Wright to return to form, Mike Pelfrey to continue his growth, and for other players to step up.

The Mets, as we've said here before, were very fortunate in 2010. Out of nowhere, we discovered a quality major league center fielder in Angel Pagan; a high quality starter in RA Dickey; David Wright returned to form as an all-star caliber third baseman; Ike Davis had a wildly successful rookie year; and Carlos Beltran returned from his surgery and showed that he had a chance to contribute in 2011.

The 2011 edition of our Mets has been similarly successful, though their successes have been subtle, or modest, or in far away cities such as Binghamton or Port St. Lucie. Leaving aside any discussion of Madoff and the Wilpon's financial trouble -- about which no independent blogger can truly say make any predictions -- the Mets organization as a whole is in a much stronger place today than it was at this time last season.

Obviously, the major league roster now is not as talented as the one we fielded in April -- Davis and Reyes are hurt, while Beltran and K-Rod have been traded -- and not every prospect has advanced his standing. However, from the low minors to the major leagues, there have been a great deal of successes.

Below, I am going to take a look at some of the players who have made significant gains or significantly improved their stock in the last year. Undoubtedly, some of these names will be familiar to casual fans -- and others only to statheads. For space reasons, I'm not going to be able to go over everyone in the low minors, but limit myself to those players already on the major league roster or in the higher minor leagues.

I am proud to report that, for the first time in a while, I am very happy about the strength of the organization in general. An organization does not need to consistently produce super stars in order to be useful -- and in fact, in New York, it is even less important that they do -- because the development of useful, cheap, cost-controlled young players allows you the financial flexibility to make moves elsewhere. Now, on to the players:

Stock Up

Lucas Duda: You can count me as one of the many observers who did not think that Duda would amount to too much in the majors. Before 2010, Duda was a defensively-challenged corner outfielder who at the age of 23 posted an 808 OPS in Double-A. Then, something clicked. People have speculated that Duda had gotten over an injury, but since the bell rung in 2010 -- over 800 at-bats later -- he's been a very, very good hitter. He put up a 999 OPS in Triple-A last year, a 1011 OPS in Triple-A this year, and has hit .275/.345/.464 in the majors this year. In the last 45 games -- a decent proxy for since he's gotten regular playing time -- he's hit .300/.376/.531, which is outstanding.

Nobody is going to project Duda to post a 900 OPS over the course of a full season, but it's pretty clear now that Duda can hit, and that I was wrong about him. It remains to be seen whether Duda's glove will be good enough for the outfield (fangraphs has his career UZR/150 in the outfield at an atrocious -32.9 over a small sample size), but it is clear that Duda's stock is WAY WAY up and that he is a major leaguer.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis: Another player who took his enormous strides of 2010 and solidified them in 2011 was Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Considered an overachiever by many, Kirk was not highly regarded even after posting an 847 OPS in Double-A at the age of 22. Scouting Book called him a fourth outfielder, while Keith Law, who strongly weighs scouting and tools in his ranking, did not place Kirk in his Mets Top 10 before the 2010 season.

The Captain, however, improved on his great 2010 season with a stellar 2011 season before going down with an injury. In 53 games, he batted .298/.403/.505 -- a batting line that will play anywhere, but is fabulous for a 23 year old center fielder. He underwent labrum surgery on his non-throwing shoulder in midseason, and there are substantial questions about how he will recover, but he has shown that, if healthy, he has a bright future.

The Big Three Pitching Prospects -- Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Zack Wheeler: Much virtual ink has been spilled already on these three, so I will be brief, but suffice to say that each of these three have taken big steps forward this year. All three have good "stuff" according to scouts, and have backed it up with their performance on the field.

Harvey, my favorite of the three, has struck out 59 batters in 51 innings in Double-A, including 7 shutout innings yesterday. He's been a little unlucky with balls in play, but with a strikeout to walk ratio of 59-15, he is having one of the best pitching prospect seasons I've seen. Familia may have been even better, with 63 strikeouts in 48 innings and an 11 inning shutout streak of his own in Double-A. Finally, Wheeler, the project of the three, is also striking out more than a batter per inning for the Single-A St. Lucie Mets. Toby Hyde was very impressed with his last start:

His fastball sat 94-96 mph with a few 93 mixed in later and one 97 as well early. He showed both the ability to throw it down with run and sink and throw it shoulder-height to change batters’ eye-level and produce swings and misses. Early on, his curveball was 77 mph with bite, by the end of his outing he was throwing it in the low 80s. It was nasty.

I try not to engage in hyperbole, but this is the best crop of Mets pitching prospects that I can recall seeing. All of them, in my opinion, compare favorably to Pelfrey (who, in his own right, was an impressive minor leaguer) and even to Jon Niese (who I was a big fan of from even the beginning).

Josh Satin: Although he doesn't profile to be an impact player any time soon, Satin has transformed himself from a non-factor into a player who can contribute on a major league team. After a relatively unremarkable minor league career, where he posted good-not-great numbers at each minor league level while being a little old for each level, Satin has exploded at the dish this year. He posted a 962 OPS at Double-A before his promotion to Triple-A. While with Buffalo, he's put up a respectable OPS of 808. That mark includes a .392 on-base percentage.

Zach Lutz: Similarly, organizational soldier Lutz made it to Triple-A and has posted an OPS of 933. It was just two seasons ago that Lutz was a non-factor, posting an 822 OPS in High-A. He's been quite good in Buffalo this year, and may find a way to be a useful major leaguer.

Chris Schwinden: Although Schwinden is not as good as his stats would indicate this season, he's taken a big step forward this season for Triple-A Buffalo. Schwinden last season posted a 5.56 ERA in Double-A, and the year before spent the majority of the season in Low-A Savannah. This year, however, Schwinden has handled his promotion to Triple-A with aplomb, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings -- all of which are career bests. The former 22nd Round draft pick may make good.

Jordany Valdespin: The 23 year old Valdespin was featured here a year and a half ago where we said:

There are a lot of reasons to like Valdespin. Obviously, his Savannah performance was good. More importantly, being rated the "best athlete" in the system...ahead of the likes of Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte, Kirk Nieuwenheis and others says a lot about his tools...In addition, he had a very strong Winter League performance...All of these things point to a bright future for Jordany. Although it could be seen as an indictment of his talent that he has not yet reached High-A ball entering his age 22 season, his physical abilities and variety of talents (speed and defense) make him an intriguing prospect.

Jordany is a project, but this year has taken a huge stride forward. After ending the 2010 season with a poor 698 OPS between Single-A and Double-A, he hit a robust .297/.341/.483 for Double-A Binghamton earlier this year. I think that the talk of Valdespin as a potential major leaguer next season is premature, but he is still only 23 and may still have room to grow.

Reese Havens: Back in 2009, when Reese Havens and Ike Davis were coming off their first full seasons in the minor leagues, we here at Fonzie Forever could not understand why Davis was being held in higher regard than Havens. We pointed out here that they were picked only four selections apart in the 2008 draft, both had hit well in the minors, and Havens had the positional adjustment advantage (second base versus first base). However, Havens has been plagued by injuries since then, and his stock -- through early this year -- had dropped substantially.

However, I am glad to report that Havens has come back strong in the last two months, and has upped his batting line in Double-A to .287/.370/.420. Even better, he's gained momentum as the year has gone on, posting a line of .323/.402/.430 since the All-Star Break. Granted, he will have to prove that his injury problems will not derail his once promising career, but Havens stock has certainly risen since April. He's a second baseman capable of posting an OPS of 800 or better, and those are exceedingly rare.

Justin Turner: Although by no stretch would I ever want Justin Turner starting on my contending team, my man @redturn2 has finally gotten the opportunity to show that he deserves to be in the major leagues. Turner hasn't hit a lick since his third week in the majors and his OPS is now down to 678 -- however, he plays decent defense and is fun to be around and can be a piece on a winner. ZiPS projected Turner for a 697 OPS in preseason, which is on the money as usual, but that is fine for organizational depth.

Stock Down

As I mentioned, not everyone in the Mets organization has been all puppies and rainbows in 2011. It's been a tough year for Fernando Martinez, while we watched Jenrry Mejia undergo Tommy John surgery. Stephen Matz, the Mets first pick (second round) of the 2009 draft has had some soreness in his recovery from his own Tommy John. I still believe that these players have a chance to contribute (particularly Mejia, who observers believe can still be a big impact pitcher) but their fortunes have dimmed somewhat since this time last year.

But in general?

A hallmark of a good organization is not just in the superstars at the major league level or super prospects in the minors, but in the depth of the rosters at each level. If you trade a Beltran, do you have a Duda to fill in? If Davis gets hurt, do you have a Daniel Murphy to take his space or do you need to pay a Mike Jacobs?

In that sense, it's been a very, very strong year for the organization. Aside from the one big question mark surrounding the Mets' financial situation, this is a team that could probably start making some noise as early as next year. Provided that the majority of players come back reasonably healthy, this is what the Mets squad could look like next year without a single addition from free agency.

1B Davis
2B Murphy
SS Reyes
3B Wright
LF Bay
CF Pagan
RF Duda
C Thole/Paulino

SP Santana, Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Capuano
RP Parnell, Beato, ...

The team as constituted above is not going to win the National League East. The Mets still have significant weaknesses when it comes to the starting rotation and the bullpen, and the Jason Bay contract will haunt the organization for another two years, but given average health that team will not be terrible. And more importantly, it's not constituted so poorly that it makes me want to run to the Mets offices at Citi Field and say "Are you mad?! Trade everything that's not nailed down!! You guys are crazy for keeping up this charade!"

Generally speaking, the players mentioned above have shown that the Mets are going to be less likely to suffer should they be befallen by a major injury. The days of Alex Cora and Miguel Cairo seem to be past, for now. And even better, the above guys, if we need them to play, are going to be making the minimum salary. That is why Angel Pagan and RA Dickey have been the most valuable Mets over the last couple of years -- they are providing value and barely costing anything.

These kids are alright. Luckily, all the trading of stars and doom and gloom at the major league level hasn't done anything to dampen the future prospects of our minor leaguers. Granted, reinforcements would have been nice in 2009, or 2008, but once again, that's part of the beauty of baseball.

Prospects, or major leaguers, or injuries, or luck, don't develop because you NEED them to at that moment. That's one of the beautiful things about baseball. Tragically, Daniel Murphy got injured again this year, just when we needed him. The Mets made silly moves in advance of 2010 because they thought they needed to compete, and damn the fact that the roster just wasn't good enough at that point. Where are we on the success cycle?

These kids are alright. The ones above -- and many others, who I did not get a chance to mention -- had a good year this year. I am excited to watch our boys play out the string here in late August and September, and hopefully, they'll be here contributing to the major league team very soon.

But not because we need them to. Because they are ready.

Is Zack Wheeler Overrated?

On my way to bed tonight, I took a quick look over at Metsblog to see is there were any interesting stories I missed today while in the midst of work and riveting debt-ceiling talk. Turns out that this afternoon they posted a link to the new Baseball America Top 10 Prospects list, which considers the state of the farm system as it is today post-trade and post-draft. Here's the list:



Zack Wheeler ascends to the top spot on the list, surpassing even Matt Harvey, the Mets highly-touted draft pick from last season. And for what reason, you may ask? Well, apparently, Wheeler has a really high ceiling. People like him a lot. Some of the good stuff?

--Project Prospect said that his curveball "has elite, two-plane break and is a no-doubt swing-and-miss offering."
--Baseball America in 2011 ranked him as the Giants #2 prospect and said that he "threw an easy 94-97 mph fastball" and called his changeup "functional."
--Here is a clip of Wheeler pitching this season which has been linked a few times, but may be worth another look:



But so far, none of this has translated to professional success for young Mr. Wheeler. So far this year, despite a decent enough 3.99 ERA, he has posted a 1.37 WHIP and walked 4.8 batters per nine innings for High Class-A San Jose in the California League. He's striking out a lot of batters as well, with 10.0 K/9, but for reference, he's walking the same amount of batters per nine innings as Oliver Perez did in 2008, when he was making everybody into a mental patient. His 3.99 ERA also checks in as the fourth highest ERA among regular starters on that team although, once again, his strikeout rate is elite.

But at this point, all the scouting accolades have not manifested in his actual pitching. And for those of you who would point to the fact that being drafted by the Giants portends success, Tim Lincecum dominated at San Jose (1.95 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) as did Matt Cain (1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), as did Madison Bumgarner (1.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). All those pitchers were kept, while Wheeler was traded.

Does Wheeler stand a chance to be great? Sure, I hope so. And of course, I am no professional scout. However, you heard a number of similarly glowing things about other Mets farmhands, yet the hype machine doesn't care about them because they were not involved in a big trade.

How about Matt Harvey? His fastball "sits in the 92-96 mph range and touches 98," similar to Wheeler (link). He's 6-foot-4 with a "power curve" and flashes of above average breaking stuff. Just as importantly, Harvey dominated at High Class-A this season when Wheeler struggled, posting a 2.37 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with 10.9 K/9 and only 2.8 BB/9. Harvey has struggled somewhat in Double-A, but his fantastic strikeout to walk ratio has remained the same and he is only 29 innings into his stay there. So far, Harvey has been a tremendous success.

How about Jeurys Familia, who was a forgotten man after his struggles in 2010? He is seven months older than Wheeler, but he is putting up almost identical stats to Wheeler but is doing so in Double-A rather than Single-A. Familia has put up a 3.38 ERA, which is good, but his secondary stuff is a little rougher, with a 1.36 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9. When he was in High Class-A to begin the year, he dominated with a 1.49 ERA and a strikeout per inning.

Here is a clip of Jeurys Familia striking out ten batters in a minor league start on June 18th of this year.



I don't mean to lose you with all the numbers, but Familia, who also throws 92-96 with the fastball (link) has been projected by some as a "bullpen guy" while Wheeler has been touted as a potential ace. I certainly hope that Wheeler does well, but until he shows me something in the minor leagues, or until the scouting reports of his actual pitches improves -- rather than forecasts of future improvement -- I don't think he deserves the #1 spot in any Mets prospect ranking.

Daniel Murphy is KILLING the Baseball

Hey everyone.

Can we talk Daniel Murphy for a second? I for one cannot believe that the tear he's been on recently has gotten such little press. I realize that Reyes was having an MVP-caliber season, and that trading Beltran is a huge story -- but almost nobody in baseball has been as good as Daniel Murphy in the last couple of months.

For the year, Murphy is hitting .319/.360/.458. That's pretty good. And stop, for a moment, and consider JUST how good that is. As it is, he's THIRD in the National League batting race. Did you know that? He's sandwiched between Ryan Braun and Joey Votto.

In the year of the pitcher, part deux, his 818 OPS is good for an OPS+ mark of 128, which is phenomenal. To put that in perspective, his 871 OPS in 2008 was only good for an OPS+ of 129 -- essentially equivalent. So even when viewing the season as a whole, he's had a truly awesome season thus far.

But when you take a look at his numbers from the middle of May onward, you will be stunned by how good he's been.

For the last 30 days, Daniel Murphy is hitting .373/.400/.573 for an OPS of 973. NINE-SEVENTY-THREE. Think that's just a hot month? It's not. In the last 60 days, Murphy has hit .358/.383/.491 for an OPS of 873. He hit .349 that month. He's been this hot since two weeks after we found out Osama Bin Laden had been killed. South Sudan wasn't a country yet. We still had a Space Program. Kate Middleton had been married less than a month. He's been doing this day in and day out for a while.

He's been getting better. And it's for such a period of time now that you have to take a step back and really take it seriously. This isn't a good two week stretch -- this is an enormous sample. In his last 240 at bats, Daniel Murphy has hit like Wade Boggs in his prime. Want to know what the full season pace is for that kind of performance?

232 hits, 56 doubles, 93 RBI, 54 strikeouts, .363/.390/.504

Obviously, Daniel Murphy is not Wade Boggs. In addition, Murphy has been aided by somewhat fortuitous luck on balls in play, with a BABIP of .384. But at this point I think it's appropriate to step back and actually ask: How good is Daniel Murphy?

Even if you were to shave off a generous amount of luck from his batting line -- say his BABIP is around .330 rather than .380 -- he'd still be hitting .313/.340/.454 over this period of time.

Oh -- and one more thing that I almost forgot to mention. His last 14 games? They have been his best. Not only has he posted an OPS of 1039 in those games while hitting .390, but in those last 59 at bats, Murphy has been pretty hard to strike out. Want to guess how many strikeouts he's had in those last 59 at bats?

a) 10 strikeouts
b) 8 strikeouts
c) 6 strikeouts

Ready for the answer? The correct answer is ONE strikeout. Daniel Murphy in the last two weeks has ten doubles and one strikeout.

The point of this exercise is not to say that I think Daniel Murphy is going to hit .400 for the rest of his career. I don't think that tomorrow he is going to hit 40 home runs or win a gold glove at second base. But I think it is long past due for the fans to acknowledge his incredible run of success -- and to contemplate what it might mean for the future.

Baseball's Foolish Realignment Plan

I know I'm late to the party on this one, but as they say, better late than never, right? I'd like to give a brief treatment to the potential realignment plan that was first reported by Buster Olney and debated as of late. I know that many others have written longer, and better, about this idea, but I'd like to give it the once-over myself.

The idea, for anyone who doesn't know, would be to have 15 teams in the American and National Leagues, to eliminate divisions, and to simply have the teams with the five best records make the playoffs. I for one think this would be a huge mistake.

First, it is important to note that aside from Buster Olney, several very well-respected baseball writers have come out in favor of the realignmnent plan. Dave Cameron and Jeff Passan, in particular, do excellent and thoughtful work, and are both strongly in favor of the plan. This means that, despite being originally brought to light by Olney, that this idea must have some credence.

Cameron, in particular, feels that the proposed plan makes for a fairer sport. He points out the disparity between the four-team AL West and the six-team NL Central, and also the fundamental disadvantage that the rest of the AL East has when faced with the Yankee and Red Sox behemoths. Essentially, Cameron concludes that "While I’ve been trained to believe that nearly every “improvement” MLB suggests is probably a bad idea, this actually seems like a pretty fantastic idea to me, in large part due to my desire to see increased fairness in the sport."

Fairness. Fairness? For those in favor of realignment, fairness really does seem to be the main sticking point. And who could disagree? I think we all should hope for a system where the best teams make the playoffs, where all fan bases can have the opportunity to root for a winner, and no team need be structurally disadvantaged. However, I don't think that this drastic realignment plan truly addresses these issues -- and if it did, the downsides far outweigh the advantages.

For the sake of brevity, I'll present the following reasons in list format:

1. If you're concerned about the AL West and NL Central being imbalanced -- which I have been for a decade -- why not just move a team?

Let the Astros, or whomever, go to the AL West. Then, you've got equal divisions everywhere. Will there be the "constant interleague" problem? Sure. But it's no more or less than with the other plan.

2. Getting rid of division races would be terrible for the regular season, and for the sport in general.

Watching division races down the stretch is the best thing about baseball. Would you rather watch the Mets and Phillies battle head to head down the stretch, or watch the Marlins and Padres jockey for the fifth and final playoff spot?

I think we've all seen what it's like when a sport has most of its field battling it out in a vague homogeneous mix. In hockey, the regular season is practically irrelevant. It's the same in basketball. In those sports, all the top teams get to coast to the finish while a few battle it out for the last few playoff spots.

Take, for instance, the National League in 2007. Down the stretch, we were treated to an incredible division race in the NL East ... I need not remind any of you what happened, but it was incredibly exciting and memorable for all of baseball. In the proposed realignment plan, that never happens. The Mets make the playoffs without any dramatics at all.

3. This doesn't solve the problem of competitive imbalance.

What baseball should be striving for is a good competitive balance, and an environment where every team can truly compete. They shouldn't be realigning the sport in order to provide a wimpy excuse where they can say "Hey, there were five playoff spots and you didn't make it! You have nobody to blame but yourself."

Would realignment in any season have helped the Pirates or Royals make the playoffs? Are we really so hung up on the Rays and Red Sox that the entire sport has to have a detrimental make-over? We've already got a wild card -- if the advantage that the Yankees and Red Sox have is, in fact, so steep to the point when it ruins the game, why not address it substantively rather than passive-aggressively?

This realignment plan sounds to me like MLB is conceding that the Yankees and Red Sox will make the playoffs every year, and they need to figure out a way to make it seem fair for the other teams to fight for the scraps. That, to me, is the real problem.

4. What is truly fair? And should the "best teams" making the playoffs even be a concern? And even if the teams with the five best balanced records made the playoffs, would that make them the best?

Ultimately, we all agree that there should be fairness in the sport. But I believe that should be as a result of policy and rule changes to the competition side, not the playoff method.

Was it fair for the Mets to miss the playoffs in 2007 while the Cubs made it with an inferior record? I think that it was. Chicago won it's division, and the Mets did not, even when they had the chance to. Was it fair for the Cardinals to make the playoffs in 2006 with 83 wins, while Philadelphia (85) and Los Angeles (88) went home? I submit to you that it was. We all know what the Cardinals went on to do that season in winning the World Series -- doesn't that make them the best?

Baseball is a game. It's not a scientific study to determine which team is "best" in a given year. I imagine that if there even were a way to determine the "best" team, that they probably don't win the World Series more than a third of the time.

I agree that there are issues in our sport that need addressing. However, radically reshaping the sport and creating a host of other issues (interleague, travel, DH, 15th place teams) is not the way I believe we should be addressing them.

Food for Thought

As Mark Simon of ESPN New York pointed out yesterday:

In those seven starts, Gee has a 2.22 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He’s allowed three home runs in 44 2/3 innings. The one thing that would classify as shaky is his strikeout-to-walk rate -- 26 to 18. But in two starts this season, he’s walked only three in 11 2/3 innings.

In his seven starts, Gee’s xFIP is 3.99. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is .234, abnormal for a pitcher, but partly explainable by Gee’s ability to avoid batters hitting line drives against him. (His rate is 10 to 12 percent, depending on which source you use, which would rank very high if maintained for a full season.) That figures to increase as big league hitters figure him out.

Obviously, I'm a fan of Gee. Around this time last year, I featured Gee in my "Don't Forget About" series on underrated players.

Gee might never have the ceiling of an ace or #2 starter, but if he keeps pitching like this, he is going to get himself on the radar really fast. According to Toby Hyde, Gee "tops out around 91 with strong control and mixes in his breaking ball for strikes."

With the great performance yesterday indicating that his injury woes are behind him, Gee has a tremendous opportunity to continue developing. If you can throw 91 and strike out two or three times as many guys as you walk, you can have a great career in the major leagues.

Now, here is your food for thought.

Regardless of what you think Gee's ceiling is -- is he better than Mike Pelfrey is right now? If you had a one game playoff to determine the winner of the NL East or Wildcard, who would you rather have starting for you: Mike Pelfrey, or Dillon Gee?

With Gee on the cusp of being bumped for the rotation for Chris Young, I can't escape the thought that if one of the Mets starters needs to get skipped, it should be Pelfrey. I'm a huge fan of Niese and Dickey, and Young and Capuano have both pitched well enough to deserve additional starts.

Just a thought.

It Wasn't Pretty But More Importantly The Mets WON!

Game 2: Mets 8 Nats 4
Capuano's Metsies debut vs Gorzelanny

First night game at Citi field aka the battle of the Hairston bros at Citi Field! Both brothers shamed their family name because they just can't hit but Scott's team is victorious! Btw any "Mad Men" fans out there, does Terry Collins at all remind you of Roger Sterling?!

Ok enough of my celebrity doppelganger theories, let's get to the recap!

Bottom of the 1st, Reyes singled to lead off this ballgame (and now he has a 6 game hitting streak)! Pagan then popped up. Wright was then up with 1 out and Reyes stole 2nd! But ugh David Wright struck out and it was up to Beltran to bring Jose home with 2 outs and he homered! This was the first Citi Field homer this season and the Mets took a 2-0 lead over the Nats. But sadly Scott Hairston took the early I will shame my baseball family name lead by flying out to Jerry! Ugh why couldn't he at least fly out to an outfielder who doesn't share his surname!

3 run homer by Espinosa in top of 2nd, 3-2 boo, the Nats take the lead.

Bottom of the 4th Wright struck out and seriously that was his 10th K in 30 at bats, wtf. I thought this was a different David!? But hooray for Beltran who homered again and the game was tied at 3-3 and who doesn't love the Bel-ly 2 homer games! 28th career multiple homer game for Carlos, wahooo!

But ugh how soon the lead again disappeared in the top of the 5th! 4-3 after Desmond's lead off solo home. But then Capuano struck out Werth! 7th K of the game for Chris! Then Zimmerman singled to give the Nats their 6th hit of the game, boo. But phew, Morse then flew out and there were two outs, Zimm was on 1st for Wilson Ramos who doubled and thanks to a great play by Pagan in the outfield Zimm had to stay at 3rd and then Ankiel grounded out and the inning was over. Further danger averted!

Fernando Martinez will be starting for the Mets in June

You heard it here first.

And not because we're desperate. But because we won't be able to deny him.

4-for-5 with a double tonight against Syracuse. He hit .364 with more walks than strikeouts in limited time this spring. Sure, it's a gut call, but it's one I'm comfortable making.

He's 22 this year. I think this is his year.

So far so good...

Game 3: Mets 9 Marlins 2
Dickey vs Vazquez

I'm not gonna give a recap of this game but let's instead take a look at what we've learned about Terry Collins' 2011 Mets before they head on over for some Philly Cheesesteaks:

K-Rod may be going to anger management but he's still rocking the goggles and he's still having an extreme difficult time saving games. Okay it was just one game so far but he looked awful against Florida. But again it was one game, and even that Mariano Rivera messes up from time to time so I'm not turning on Frankie just yet.

Isaac Benjamin Davis got off to a rocky start with a few hiccups at first base which was and is shocking since he was the man last year that would make incredible plays diving into the stands. But since that first not so hot game he appears to have his hitting and defensive prowess back. He definitely has the potential to hit 20 homers (perhaps 30), bat .300 and rack up 100 ribeye steaks.

RA Dickey probably is our ace with Johan on the DL. No matter how many times he gets into trouble, he's the one Metsies pitcher I can watch without half covering my eyes when the bases are loaded. He has no trouble keeping his cool and he gets out of jams. Plus his post game locker room interviews are always worth watching. This man is brilliant and it's always just nice to hear his take on a game.

Beltran is hitting. That is what counts. Plus he's Duda's Yoda. According to Burkhardt, Carlos keeps an eye on Lucas and gives him advice to improve his hitting. They also have had dinner dates!

Eamus or Murphy at second?! The biggest fear with Daniel Murphy at second is the fact that he won't be able to turn double plays. He really didn't get a chance to do that yet during his one start but he looked absolutely fine at second. Eamus got his first hit in game 2 and he's looked pretty great defensively. It's a tough call.

Reyes and Pagan are still fast as can be and defensive badasses.

David Wright is looking like pre-getting hit in the head Davey. He's hitting, okay his defense hasn't been perfect but his swing is looking marvelous. I am thinking this could be a season where Wright doesn't strike out in consecutive games, gasp.

Willie Harris is proving to be a great pickup. So far he's pinch hit successfully, he's homered, he's played great defense and he's proven he can actually help the Mets and not just rob them of victories like he did as a National.

Jonathan Niese has had the tendency in the past to pitch great but to start out a little rusty. He does give up first inning runs but he also can then bounce back and give the Mets 6 scoreless innings.

Big Pelf looks like he is just picking up where he left off last season and that's no good. If he can get himself centered and back into his early 2010 form we really could have a pretty good pitching staff that could give a lot of teams trouble.

The Mets as a team have proven so far that just like last year they can fight back. They don't give up and that's great to see. Even when K-Rod blew the save game 2 they bounced right back in that top of the 10th and regained the lead. Does that mean we might see another 20 inning game, perhaps?!

Run support has been an issue with the Metsies. So many games last year we saw great pitching outings but the squad couldn't hit. Dickey for some reason was the one pitcher who seemed to always get run support and that has continued thus far.

In general Florida just kicks the Mets asses. Last year it was no picnic playing the fish so taking a series on the road from them is a great start.

On the road the Mets just couldn't win and they already have one road series under their belts so that's pretty neat and promising.

SNY still is all about the Geico and Fiberama commercials....

Keith hasn't fallen asleep or made that many funny comments yet but he has said "Cheese" so I think there's no reason to fear he's lost his unpredictable/very entertaining booth mojo. Just for now he seems very professional and that's great but we need some random tangents about authors or musicians or Sag Harbor just in case this season gets really ugly.

I know we don't have big expectations for the Metsies but you know what maybe they'll surprise us. A 2-1 start is not that shabby at all and I guess the real test is coming up. Philadelphia and that ridiculous pitching staff will be quite hard to defeat but you know what anything is possible in the world of sports. So for now let's just take it game by game and hope Collins' Metsies surprise us this year!

Same old drama mama K-Rod...but the Mets are still triumphant!

Game 2: Mets6 Marlins4 (10 innings)
Niese vs Nolasco

Gary had a major hard on for the Florida sunset during this game..."Nice to see Niese settling in" was a phrase uttered by the booth quite often and K-Rod proved once again some things sadly never change. But let's not dwell on Frankie, let's get to the recap of the Metsies first victorino of the season!

Here we go! 123 top of the first for Nolasco. Sheesh who does Nolasco think he is, Josh Johnson? He needs to save this impersonation for the Phillies and the Braves. Yep.

To the bottom of the 1st, Niese right from the start was in trouble and bam before we could see 3434343 Fiberama commercials (because oh SNY is relentless with those buggers) 2 were in scoring position with 1 out for Gaby Sanchez. Sanchez was walked and the bases were loaded for Morrison, he singled and Infante and Ramirez scored. Yet again the Marlins got out to an early lead, 2-0 fish. Now the new Mets killer John Buck was up with men on 1st and 2nd and still just 1 out and this time he was human! Buck hit a fly ball to right way in foul territory and Beltran grabbed it! Wahoo! Then Donnie Murphy made the final out, phew.

Beltran led off the top of the 2nd by striking out. Terrible. Next up was Isaac Benjamin Davis! And Ike got an opposite field double, his first hit in 2011! Wahoo! Duda then flew out to left, gosh it's always zipadeeDUDA with Lucas. Now it was up to Eamus to get Ike home and put a run on the board and he struck out and stranded that awesomely bearded Davis on 2nd.

123 bottom of the 2nd for Niese! I love these Niese of cake innings!

Josh Thole singled to lead off the top of the 3rd! That was Joshy's first hit of the season, woot woot! Then Burkhardt does a segment on MLB-ers who cook and it turns out Johan Santana has very impressive skills with a knife and Davey Wright loves apple pie. I know the things Kevin teaches us sometimes are vital for our sports loving existence. Talk about hard hitting news! Oh and during this "Diamond Dishes" segment Niese sac bunted to move Josh on over to 2nd so maybe Reyes could like get an RBI. And Reyes hit a beauty to center but Coghlan was able to make the catch, bollocks. Now Thole was at 3rd with two outs for Crazy Horse Pagan. I really want to get to say it's back back back it's Pa-GONE a lot this season but sadly this was not one of those times for me to get to do that. It was a long fly ball but not long enough. Fly outs to right suck! Inning over.

123 bottom of the 3rd for Niese and that also meant he had retired 8 in a row!


In the top of the 4th Wright led off with a bombarino! Ron remarked "That was some serious pop Keith" and oh it was and now it was just a one run ballgame. 2-1! Then it looked like Beltran was homering too but nope it was a fakeout. And then that Coghlan made a great play in center to take a base hit away from Ike. So now it was 2 outs and nobody on for Mr. Duda and he duh is not winning and struck out.

After a slew of Geico commercials we were back for the bottom of the 4th and it was another 123 inning for Niese!

Eamus led off the top of the 5th with his first big league hit, wahoo! Other than that this was a pointless half of an inning.

Niese picked up his first K of the night in the bottom of the 5th or as Keith referred to it "He just ate up Coghlan." With 2 outs and a man on 2nd Infante grounded a ball hard to Davey, Wright bobbled it and he had no play to make (first error of the Metsies season) and men were now on first and third for Ramirez ugh. But phew danger averted and Hanley grounded out to Eamus!

In the top of the 6th Beltran got a 2 out single and it was time for some Ike magic! And Ike tied the game with a double! 2-2! Davis' bat and beard are real and spectacular but blah blah then Duda go figures did the whole grounding out to end the inning thang. He really likes to leave Ike stranded on 2nd. Not cool Duda.

"He's throwing inside aggressively, I love it" said the Hernandez. Niese struck out John Buck who is now all of a sudden pretending he can't hit to end the inning and that meant a 123 bottom of the 6th for Niese!

In the top of the 7th Thole hit a 1 out single but Bonifacio made a Frenchy type play and he caught Thole off the bag and Josh was out, that hit was wasted and then Niese struck out to end the inning.

In the bottom of the 7th the go ahead run was on 2nd with 1 out for Helms and Jon struck him out! Then it was time for Coghlan with the pinch runner Cousins (Donnie Murphy left the game) still at 2nd and he grounded out and the inning was over! Only 86 pitches thrown!

In the top of the 8th Reyes grounded out and he's now 0-8 this season. Then Bonifacio had to go and show off the glove again (now at 3rd) to make a great defensive play that took an infield hit away from Crazy Horse Angel Pagan. So with 2 outs and nobody on it was Wright's turn to maybe homer again but nah he just singled and that was mighty fine. But ugh Beltran grounded out and the inning was over.

Bottom of the 8th Bobby P time! 123 inning for Parnell including two K's!

Could the hero be Josh Thole?! Thole rbi singled in the top of the 9th to give the Metsies a 3-2 lead!

And then it was K-Rod time, his first pitch of the year was a strike! He even struck out Logan Morrison for out numero uno but of course the shit hit the fan and K-Rod was up to his old I like to blow saves tricks. This part was very upsetting for me so I'm just gonna say the Marlins tied the ballgame 3-3 and somehow K-Rod didn't give up any more runs and we were headed to extra innings.

In the top of the 10th Reyes and Pagan both got on base with back to back singles (Pagan successful bunt single). Then David Wright did it again and he singled, Reyes scored and the Mets regained the lead 4-3 and phew they weren't done! Fast forward to 1st and 3rd 2 outs for Willie Harris and oh Harris is making us fans very happy (and oh we deserve that after all the Mets killing he did last season) and he doubled and the Mets had a 6-3 lead going into the bottom of the 10th!

K-Rod was back to pitch again, I'm just playing, it was Blaine Boyer and he wasn't perfect at all but the Mets won so that's what counts! The Mets are 1-1 and the one and only RA Dickey takes the mound tomorrow! I can't wait. Last year I just looked forward to those Dickey starts.

So to tomorrow and some knuckleball fun!

Forget that Josh Johnson who the eff is this John Buck?

Marlins 6 Mets 2
Josh Johnson vs Big Pelf

Why hello there my fellow Metsie obsessed fans. It's good to have our baseball back! I've missed the boys. Sure the Jets supplied me with a lot of fun and well heartbreaking times and then the Nets have attempted to play basketball but nothing rocks my world quite like Mets baseball. For some reason even though I know the Mets will always disappoint me I enter each season excited as can be. Yep I just love being a masochist and really the Mets supply the best opportunity for me to get my masochistic ways on.

Honestly this game was an enjoyable pitcher's duel. The operative word being "WAS." It felt like Pedro was pitching against Josh Johnson like last year's season opener but nope Big Pelf had to go and ruin any hopes of a possible 1-0 start to this season.

Let's get to how it all unfolded in such a no good very bad fashion. To the bottom of the 4th! This inning started out so innocently and then bam it was first and third (Stanton on 3rd, Sanchez on 1st) for Logan Morrison with one out. Morrison was walked and ugh the bases were loaded for John Buck (I think no relation to Joe Buck or Uncle Buck). He battled like no other with Pelfrey and he was victorious. On the 8th pitch Buck hit a grand slam in his national league debut. Come on doesn't he know it's overrated to have a great debut as a Marlin! Damn him. 4-0 fish and it didn't look good for the Amazins and Pelf looks like he is not gonna replicate his awesome start one year ago. "That was an impressive at bat" says the Hernandez. Damn right it was and ugh ugh ugh Pelf got out of the inning but at this point Johnson was on fire and pitching a no-hitter. 9 in a row had been retired by Johnson after 5. Blech I wanted to vomit.

And the misery continued in the bottom of the 5th, Sanchez singled and Ramirez who was on 2nd scored and the fish's lead was now 5-0. But phew Morrison popped up to end the inning.

In the top of the 6th the no hitter continued on. Thole grounded out for out numero one. Duda then got his pinch hit on and duh he did nothing and he flew out to left. And then the 12th man to be retired in a row by Johnson was Reyes who also flew out to Coghlan.

And then wtf John Buck did it again in the bottom of the 6th. Who is this dude? Beato making his debut for the Metsies "battling the butterflies" according to Gary gave up an off the wall double to John Buck. Okay day one and the new Mets killer is John Buck. I guess it's always good to figure out who our nemeses are as early as possible. What is it about these Marlins that always makes the Mets match up against them in the worst fashion ever? But phew after Buck, Beato retired the next three marlins in a row!

Willie Harris led off the 7th inning and he got the first hit of the night! A double for the former Met killer who is now a Met! Then with one out and Harris on third Beltran doubled and the Mets cut the lead back to 4. 5-1! Then Pagan infield singled and Isaac Benjamin Davis was up with men on 1st and 3rd with 1 out. Ike grounded to Infante and Omar couldn't make the play to get Beltran out at home so he instead made the play at 1st, Ike was out but Carlos scored and the lead was just 5-2. Then with the bases loaded and 2 outs Collins had Scott Hairston pinch hit for Josh Thole against the Marlins reliever Mike Dunn. This was the big debut for Hairston and he struck out and shamed his Hairston MLB family name.

Beato didn't give up any runs in the bottom of the 7th and we were off to the top of the 8th with this game actually in reach for the Mets. Maybe Pelf could get a no decision after all and forget that grand slam ever happened. Or maybe the Mets would do nothing! Yep they did nothing and for some reason I still watch games with some optimism and assumed maybe they could make a comeback. Will I ever smarten up and learn?!

Yep optimism is for suckers. Then Morrison homered to lead off the bottom of the 8th and now the lead was 6-2 but phew that was all the damage that was done.

To the top of the 9th and the last hope for the Mets! 6-2 ball game. Beltran led off the 9th against the Marlins closer Leo Nunez and he flew out to Coghlan for out numero uno. Now it was time for Angel "Crazy Horse" Pagan and he popped up to third. And now the fate of a Metsies comeback fell into the lap of my fave Metsie Mr. Ike Davis. Sadly Davis struck out and Terry Collins is now 0-1 as the manager of the Amazins.

Tomorrow Niese takes the mound and ugh it has got to be better than this right??!!

And Keith needs to be funnier tomorrow. If I'm gonna survive this season he has to deliver me gems and for some reason he was super focused and professional sounding. Granted there was a lot of "cheese" talk but still I want some random tangent about Jack Kerouac or David Bowie from Keith. Yep I do...