How Can The Mets Possibly Consider Benching Pagan?

A lot of better news outlets than Fonzie Forever have already reported the recent news that Carlos Beltran is beginning a rehab assignment and may soon be back in the Mets lineup, so let's skip to the analysis:

As great as this news is, it is accompanied with a sense of foreboding -- it appears that the Mets may be prepared to play Carlos Beltran in center field at the expense of Angel Pagan, while letting Jeff Francoeur play every day in right field. The Mets blogosphere is probably unanimous in hating this idea.

Dave Cameron at fangraphs recently did a great job pointing out how valuable Pagan has been over the last couple of seasons:

Since the start of the 2008 season, Pagan has received 585 plate appearances, or just about one full season’s worth of playing time. In that time span, he’s posted a .355 wOBA and a +14.4 UZR while playing primarily in center field. That performance adds up to a total value of +4.9 wins, the sixth most of any center fielder in baseball during that time frame.

Angel Pagan has been great again this year, so it would stink if he was benched in favor of Francoeur. The strange thing about all of this, however, is that it appears the Mets know this. Pagan has played every day and is batting second. He recieves high praise from Jerry Manuel and the front office. Jeff Francoeur hits at the bottom half of the lineup and has been the subject of much consternation. So why the talk of making Pagan the odd man out?

I think Pat Andriola over at the Hardball Times got it right when he said the following:

I think it'd be optimal for the Mets to bench Francoeur for good and put Carlos Beltran in right field. Beltran will be coming off serious knee issues and declined defensively last year. The Mets can mitigate his stress back in the outfield by putting him in right, leaving Pagan in center, and of course having Jason Bay in left field. Chris Carter and Jeff Francoeur can sit on the bench, and Gary Matthews Jr. can go home and buy really cool stuff with his tens of millions of dollars.

My gut feeling is that the Mets are simply posturing on this one. If Carlos Beltran does indeed come back from his injury (dubious at best) and plays center field instead of right field (also dubious) then I believe the Mets are going to be forced to push Francoeur to the bench as the short side of a platoon.

How couldn't they? Francoeur is dead last among Mets outfielders in wOBA:

Bay: .357
Pagan: .349
Francoeur: .317

Among the three, Francoeur is also last in hits, OBP, and runs. Hell, he's even last in steals (Bay somehow has 9). The only meaningful stat where he doesn't grade out as last among Mets outfielders, aside from RBI, is ultimate zone rating. There, Bay lags behind the field by a sizeable gap:

Pagan: 10.1 UZR/150
Francoeur: -0.9 UZR/150
Bay: -6.5 UZR/150

Long story short is that, in sum, the only outfielder who should be safe from criticism, beyond reproach, and safe from benching, is Angel Pagan. Here's a look by WAR (wins above replacement)

Pagan: 2.2 wins
Bay: 1.1 wins
Francoeur: 0.6 wins

In the end, the smartest arrangement will probably involve a Pagan and Francoeur platoon in right field, with Angel Pagan taking over in center field on the plentiful off days that Carlos Beltran will recieve. This arrangement is actually perfect -- giving Pagan a start almost every day, letting Beltran rest, and having Francoeur as a great pinch-hit option in late innings against lefties.

We discussed a platoon between Pagan and Francoeur at length in January. Pagan has an 848 OPS against righties this season. Francoeur has an 898 OPS against lefties this season (684 vs. righties).

Let's make this happen. Please. I just complimented Mets management on all the intelligent decisions they've made this year (and was subsequently ridiculed for it) -- so please do something smart and help me out here.

The Revolution Has Not Been Televised

It began with a drip here.

And a drop there.

Then another, and another.

And then there are so many drops that maybe you start to take notice. Suddenly, the deluge is so heavy that it demands your attention.

The Mets have been making some excellent personnel decisions this year. I mean, really good. Really smart. Excellent. I'm thrilled.

The news today that the Mets plan to have Daniel Murphy play multiple positions in Triple-A was that moment for me when the evidence became too much to ignore.

The Mets also announced Monday that they have reinstated infielder Daniel Murphy from the 15-day disabled list and optioned him to Triple-A Buffalo. There, the Mets plan on exposing Murphy to first base, second base, third base and both corner outfield positions in an effort to increase his versatility. MLB.com

…i can see Murph getting a lot of time at second base, especially in the short term, due to the durability problems with Luis Castillo... MetsBlog.com

Sure, you can complain that this move came too late, or that with Ike Davis at first it wasan obvious necessity rather than a smart idea. But really, would the Mets of the past ever have been a slam-dunk to perform the smart, necessary, and timely move?

Having Daniel Murphy practice at multiple positions in Triple-A is a great thing for this team. Whether he plays the utility role and supplants a guy like Tatis, or parlays himself into a valuable trade commodity, or replaces Castillo at second, this is all good. And it's even better that he's being given time to do this all in the minor leagues.

But the Daniel Murphy move was not the only smart move out Mets have made this year. They've made tons of them. And here at Fonzie Forever, we give credit where credit is due (and we're also ferocious when they do something stupid... have to be fair).

Let's take a look at some of the very bright moves the Mets have made this year, in chronological order.

December 4, 2009: Named Wayne Krivsky special assistant to general manager.

January 22, 2010: Acquired OF Gary Matthews Jr. and cash from the L.A. Angels for RHP Brian Stokes. I know people don't like this deal, but it made perfect sense for the Mets at the time. Going into the season you'd want Angel Pagan to seize the starting role but he had very little track record to fall back on. The Mets needed some kind of known quantity in-house in case Pagan faltered. Yes, there were cheaper options. And yes, GMJ sucks. But the move is decidedly low risk and are we missing Brian Stokes (who currently is on the DL and has a 7.31 ERA?) Get a grip people.

March 4, 2010: Agreed to terms with RHP Kiko Calero on a minor league contract.

March 30, 2010: Did NOT option SS Ruben Tejada to Triple-A. They let the kid stay in the majors and play - showing confidence and foresight, and prioritizing defense. All good.

April 18, 2010: Designated INF Mike Jacobs for assignment. The Mets acknowledged defeat. They cut ties with Jacobs, who wasn't working out, mercifully early in the year.

April 19, 2010: Selected the contract of 1B Ike Davis from Buffalo (IL).

May 10, 2010: Recalled C Josh Thole and OF Chris Carter from Buffalo (IL). Designated OF Frank Catalanotto for assignment. Once again, the Mets bit the bullet and admitted that Catalanotto wasn't working out. So Catalanotto is gone, and "The Animal" Chris Carter is called up to replace him. In addition, Josh Thole was called up to back up Barajas while Blanco was on bereavement instead of some minor league stiff. They acknowledge that Thole is the potential catcher of the future despite his troubles so far this year.

May 22, 2010: Placed RHP John Maine on the 15-day DL. Sorry, John. Someone had to stop you from going out there and continuing to stink while injuring yourself further. Sorry if it hurt your ego. Another good move by the Mets.

So to summarize, the Mets have cut their losses on their worst offseason moves by releasing Jacobs and Catalanotto and relegating Gary Matthews Jr. almost entirely to the bench. They have given every youngster who has deserved it, a chance to play in the major leagues (Carter, Tejada, Thole, Davis). They have been smart though conservative in using the Disabled List, which may be the right move, with guys like Jose Reyes, Jon Niese, and John Maine.

Nothing is ever going to be perfect, but the Mets have made a lot of very deft moves this year. Add to this the fact that they acquired Raul Valdez and Hisanori Takahashi as international free agents and have given the two of them the opportunity to fill in for our injured starters, and you have a series of truly excellent manuevers.

They have taken intelligent risks. They have acknowledged failures. They are willing to let Daniel Murphy try to re-establish his value somewhere other than first base. They have let performance win the day over reputation (Pagan over Matthews).

This is no longer a pattern that we can ignore. I know that the blogging community loves to be snarky and demonstrate how much more that we know than the front office types do -- but it might be time to give them a hand.

Despite the major league club hovering around .500, the first two months of this season have given me new hope. I hope it continues, because if it does, when Carlos Beltran comes back he might be returning to a team that is only one piece away from making a run at the playoffs.

The Lineup Game

I don't usually play around with lineup construction (because it matters so little) but I heard one suggested on WFAN last night that I really liked. The show's host, who was a woman I had never heard before (usually listen during the day) had some really smart suggestions and had strong rationale for all of it. Here's how the order went.

1. Reyes
2. Pagan
3. Bay
4. Davis
5. Wright
6. Barajas
7. Francoeur/Carter
8. Pitcher
9. Castillo

She didn't seem to care whether Castillo was 8 or 9. In general, I like this idea. The question the Mets face now really seems to be what to do with Anegl Pagan if Reyes is back to leading off. Last night he batted seventh, which is a waste. He's been playing too well recently to bury down there.

I like the idea of leading off with Reyes AND Pagan, who are both dynamic speedsters with some pop, before getting to the heart of the order. I'd also bat Davis between Bay and Wright because of handedness. Barajas 6th is interesting but not crazy, not while he's hot. And then Castillo at the end of the lineup turns the lineup over -- he can bunt, he get get on base, and he can take pitches. As she mentioned, facing the Mets 7-8-9 when it was Barajas-Francoeur-Pitcher could end up in a lot of 5 or 6 pitch innings for the opposing team.

Anyway, that was her idea and I liked it. Not that it makes a huge difference.

Dear Angel Pagan

Thank you for crushing that walk off home run today to make me look smart.

Yes, it is only pre-season.

But the haters won't hesitate to hold against you the one bad play you made in the outfield last week. So how can they deny your clutch, awesome, game winning smash today?

Haters.

You did a good job. And just as importantly as the home run - I'm proud of you for laying off that tough 2-1 fastball. That took a lot of discipline. I'm sure that fastball looked fat on the way into the plate, but you waited and watched it sail by as a ball.

Way to go, Angel. I look forward to seeing you patrol centerfield for all of April. And don't listen to the haters. We've got your back.

Is Fernando Martinez An Option In Center Field?

Well, if John Harper of the Daily News has his way, perhaps. Harper suggested in an article yesterday that the Mets would be better off starting Fernando and pushing Angel Pagan to the bench. This idea could not be dumber.

Harper prefaces his suggestion by pointing out to us that Angel Pagan made a mistake in Thursday's exhibition against the Red Sox. He continues:

When I later asked another Mets player about it, he tapped a finger against his head and walked away. Enough said.

For that matter, we saw enough of Pagan's baserunning adventures last season to know that no amount of coaching is going to keep him from making costly mistakes at times.

The point is, now that Jose Reyes is apparently going to join Beltran on the disabled list to start the season, the Mets need to rethink their options. Specifically they need to think about a way to make their lineup more dynamic, as well as less prone to the mistakes that were killing them last season even before all the injuries.

Yes, Pagan caught the ball in a bad position to throw. But let's not lose our heads here - it was one play in a spring training game. Who knows why it happened?

Francoeur and Pagan Platoon

Over at Amazin Avenue, James Kannengeiser looks at the splits to make an argument in favor of a Francoeur and Pagan platoon:

Using some rudimentary calculations, the Pagan/Francoeur platoon projects to produce something like this: .295/.345/.470, with upside based on each players' age and recent performance . . . This would almost certainly give the Mets above average offensive production from the right field position -- something they've lacked since 2006 . . . The biggest fear is that Pagan is relegated to Jeremy Reed duty while Francoeur grits his way to a .730 OPS.

Here at Fonzie Forever, we've been on that bandwagon for months already. Back in October, we pointed out that Angel Pagan was good enough to play every day:

Taken by itself, Angel Pagan's 2009 performance is MORE than enough to justify handing him a starting job in 2010. He hit .306/.350/.487, with 11 triples and 6 home runs in only 343 at bats. He struck out only 56 times and stole 14 bases compared to 7 caught. He is only 27 years old, entering his prime, and he is not yet a free agent. He played excellent defense, and is well-known for being the most athletic Met.
* * *
I doubt many people see Pagan as an option, but I also think that not many people realize just how good he was this season. I think if people knew that by hitting .306 and playing excellent defense he provided almost as much value as Jason Bay did, they would think differently.
* * *
I don't think it's crazy to expect Angel to be able to hit .280/.340/.460 this year at least (which would be a 37 point drop from his 2009 OPS). If he did, he'd be good enough to have the job, no doubt about it.

Then in December, while analyzing the Mets ZiPS projections, we opined that:

A short term solution like Delgado at first base, or perhaps a good platoon situation with Francoeur (who for his career has hit .298 against lefties) would help immensely.

Then later, while discussing cheap, available free agents, we again pointed out that Francoeur was an excellent candidate for a platoon partner:

Did anyone realize that Francoeur hit .344/.356/.521 for an 878 OPS against lefties last year? And has an 827 OPS against them for his career?

A Pagan and Francoeur platoon may already be in the works in real Mets-land. One can hope. In addition to keeping all four of our outfielders sharp, it helps us on one other VERY important real-life issue: Jeff Francoeur's contract. Francoeur made $3.37 million last year, is due a small raise this year, and will soon be owed even larger sums.

By playing him in a platoon, we may be able to either a) argue he is not a full-time ballplayer or b) by protecting him against tough righties, inflate his statistics to the point where he may become a valuable trade commodity. By playing Pagan only when Francoeur needs "rest" he could look way better without being actively platooned. Either way, we should be mindful that Fernando Martinez will be ready soon -- and that we do not need a third outfielder locked into his position for several years.