How Can The Mets Possibly Consider Benching Pagan?

A lot of better news outlets than Fonzie Forever have already reported the recent news that Carlos Beltran is beginning a rehab assignment and may soon be back in the Mets lineup, so let's skip to the analysis:

As great as this news is, it is accompanied with a sense of foreboding -- it appears that the Mets may be prepared to play Carlos Beltran in center field at the expense of Angel Pagan, while letting Jeff Francoeur play every day in right field. The Mets blogosphere is probably unanimous in hating this idea.

Dave Cameron at fangraphs recently did a great job pointing out how valuable Pagan has been over the last couple of seasons:

Since the start of the 2008 season, Pagan has received 585 plate appearances, or just about one full season’s worth of playing time. In that time span, he’s posted a .355 wOBA and a +14.4 UZR while playing primarily in center field. That performance adds up to a total value of +4.9 wins, the sixth most of any center fielder in baseball during that time frame.

Angel Pagan has been great again this year, so it would stink if he was benched in favor of Francoeur. The strange thing about all of this, however, is that it appears the Mets know this. Pagan has played every day and is batting second. He recieves high praise from Jerry Manuel and the front office. Jeff Francoeur hits at the bottom half of the lineup and has been the subject of much consternation. So why the talk of making Pagan the odd man out?

I think Pat Andriola over at the Hardball Times got it right when he said the following:

I think it'd be optimal for the Mets to bench Francoeur for good and put Carlos Beltran in right field. Beltran will be coming off serious knee issues and declined defensively last year. The Mets can mitigate his stress back in the outfield by putting him in right, leaving Pagan in center, and of course having Jason Bay in left field. Chris Carter and Jeff Francoeur can sit on the bench, and Gary Matthews Jr. can go home and buy really cool stuff with his tens of millions of dollars.

My gut feeling is that the Mets are simply posturing on this one. If Carlos Beltran does indeed come back from his injury (dubious at best) and plays center field instead of right field (also dubious) then I believe the Mets are going to be forced to push Francoeur to the bench as the short side of a platoon.

How couldn't they? Francoeur is dead last among Mets outfielders in wOBA:

Bay: .357
Pagan: .349
Francoeur: .317

Among the three, Francoeur is also last in hits, OBP, and runs. Hell, he's even last in steals (Bay somehow has 9). The only meaningful stat where he doesn't grade out as last among Mets outfielders, aside from RBI, is ultimate zone rating. There, Bay lags behind the field by a sizeable gap:

Pagan: 10.1 UZR/150
Francoeur: -0.9 UZR/150
Bay: -6.5 UZR/150

Long story short is that, in sum, the only outfielder who should be safe from criticism, beyond reproach, and safe from benching, is Angel Pagan. Here's a look by WAR (wins above replacement)

Pagan: 2.2 wins
Bay: 1.1 wins
Francoeur: 0.6 wins

In the end, the smartest arrangement will probably involve a Pagan and Francoeur platoon in right field, with Angel Pagan taking over in center field on the plentiful off days that Carlos Beltran will recieve. This arrangement is actually perfect -- giving Pagan a start almost every day, letting Beltran rest, and having Francoeur as a great pinch-hit option in late innings against lefties.

We discussed a platoon between Pagan and Francoeur at length in January. Pagan has an 848 OPS against righties this season. Francoeur has an 898 OPS against lefties this season (684 vs. righties).

Let's make this happen. Please. I just complimented Mets management on all the intelligent decisions they've made this year (and was subsequently ridiculed for it) -- so please do something smart and help me out here.

Forget the Platoon, Go With Daniel Murphy

Much has been made in this offseason about Daniel Murphy and the fact that he has traditionally struggled a little bit against lefties. We went on and on at this blog about how great it would be to get a platoon partner like Ryan Garko to pair up with Murphy and inexpensively upgrade the position[1].

However, that ship has sailed - the Mets did not acquire that great platoon partner. As with any good opportunity which is missed, it is time to re-evaluate and move on. At this point, there is almost no benefit to platooning Daniel Murphy, and the Mets would be better off playing him every day.

Francoeur and Pagan Platoon

Over at Amazin Avenue, James Kannengeiser looks at the splits to make an argument in favor of a Francoeur and Pagan platoon:

Using some rudimentary calculations, the Pagan/Francoeur platoon projects to produce something like this: .295/.345/.470, with upside based on each players' age and recent performance . . . This would almost certainly give the Mets above average offensive production from the right field position -- something they've lacked since 2006 . . . The biggest fear is that Pagan is relegated to Jeremy Reed duty while Francoeur grits his way to a .730 OPS.

Here at Fonzie Forever, we've been on that bandwagon for months already. Back in October, we pointed out that Angel Pagan was good enough to play every day:

Taken by itself, Angel Pagan's 2009 performance is MORE than enough to justify handing him a starting job in 2010. He hit .306/.350/.487, with 11 triples and 6 home runs in only 343 at bats. He struck out only 56 times and stole 14 bases compared to 7 caught. He is only 27 years old, entering his prime, and he is not yet a free agent. He played excellent defense, and is well-known for being the most athletic Met.
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I doubt many people see Pagan as an option, but I also think that not many people realize just how good he was this season. I think if people knew that by hitting .306 and playing excellent defense he provided almost as much value as Jason Bay did, they would think differently.
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I don't think it's crazy to expect Angel to be able to hit .280/.340/.460 this year at least (which would be a 37 point drop from his 2009 OPS). If he did, he'd be good enough to have the job, no doubt about it.

Then in December, while analyzing the Mets ZiPS projections, we opined that:

A short term solution like Delgado at first base, or perhaps a good platoon situation with Francoeur (who for his career has hit .298 against lefties) would help immensely.

Then later, while discussing cheap, available free agents, we again pointed out that Francoeur was an excellent candidate for a platoon partner:

Did anyone realize that Francoeur hit .344/.356/.521 for an 878 OPS against lefties last year? And has an 827 OPS against them for his career?

A Pagan and Francoeur platoon may already be in the works in real Mets-land. One can hope. In addition to keeping all four of our outfielders sharp, it helps us on one other VERY important real-life issue: Jeff Francoeur's contract. Francoeur made $3.37 million last year, is due a small raise this year, and will soon be owed even larger sums.

By playing him in a platoon, we may be able to either a) argue he is not a full-time ballplayer or b) by protecting him against tough righties, inflate his statistics to the point where he may become a valuable trade commodity. By playing Pagan only when Francoeur needs "rest" he could look way better without being actively platooned. Either way, we should be mindful that Fernando Martinez will be ready soon -- and that we do not need a third outfielder locked into his position for several years.