A Must-Win Month

I don't typically subscribe to the idea of the "must-win game" - I've always seen it as a made-up creation by sportswriters eager to sell a newspaper. How can one game, particularly early in the season, be must win? Would it be nice in some cases to win a statement game in May? Yes. Would it make the road easier to beat a division rival and stay within 4 GB in June? Sure. But the bottom line is those "must-win" games, you can survive losing... so by definition, they aren't what people claim them to be.

However, the Mets are staring down a couple series right now which will make-or-break their season, if it is not already broken. The Mets - a depressing 9.0 games off the pace in the NL East - have one last desparate chance to make a run at the division. If so, here is how it will go:

Next up, three games at home against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are 5.5 games ahead of the Mets today -- but if the Mets sweep the series, at home, that lead will shrink to 2.5 games. If the Mets sweep, they'll be 60-57.

The next 13 games are as follows: at Houston, at Pittsburgh, vs Florida, vs Houston. The best of these teams, the Marlins, are at .500, while Houston and Pittsburgh are arguably the two worst teams in the National League.

If the Mets can go into Houston and win three of four, and win the series in Pittsburgh -- not a huge task, considering their futility -- they will not only make up ground in the East, but they will finally have won a series against a National League team on the road, something which they have not done this year.

If the Mets go 9-4 in these games, they will be 69-61 when they travel to Turner Field in Atlanta on August 30th.

It's a lot to ask the Mets to sweep a series, but not so much at home, where they've been great. It's a lot to ask the Mets to win on the road, but not so much against teams with 65 (Houston) and 74 (Pittsburgh) losses.

The Braves currently sit at 66-48, and have just lost Chipper Jones for the season. If they go .500 over their next 16 games, which includes 4 against the Dodgers and 3 in Colorado without an off day, they will be 74-56 on August 30th.

If the Mets are only 5 games behind the Braves, going into Atlanta for a four game series, destiny in their own hands -- will you Believe?

As Gary Cohen Screamed To The High Heavens, "Jeff Francouer Back In Atlanta STUNS Billy Wagner!"

Game 2: Mets 3 Braves 2

Dickey vs Lowe

So this game was going to have either 2 outcomes. I was going to throw in the towel and accept reality that the Mets season was over or well I was going to get to be an optimistic schmuck for at least one more day. And what do you know I get to stay a delusional Metsies fan! This can all change tomorrow but for now I'm savoring this victory like no other.

So now let's get to a quick recap of this magnificence and then it will be time for some Keith action in the booth! Giddy up!

In the bottom of the 2nd with 1 out R.A. Dickey beaned Gonzalez. Ankiel then singled and Melky Cabrera was up. Melky grounded into what looked like it was going to be a double play but nope it was just a force out at 2nd. Luis Castillo was not to blame on this one! Reyes didn't at all try to get Cabrera out at first, he didn't even attempt a throw and yep that meant the Braves would take advantage of this lapse in Metsies defense. Gonzalez scored on this not-a-double-play and the Braves took a 1-0 lead over the Mets.

But Jose is all about the redemption song business. He loves Bob Marley! In the top of the 3rd Castillo led off with a bunt single. I know Castillo didn't suck tonight! I'm still in shock over this! He must have been reading all of our angry blog posts about him on Fonzie! Dickey then sac bunted Luis on over to 2nd and well it was Jose's time to redeem himself! Reyes rbi doubled, Castillo and his two different sized legs scored and the Metsies and Braves were now tied 1-1.

And this game stayed 1-1 until the bottom of the 6th. Dickey's knuckleball was dancing most of the night but after Gary Cohen commented on how much of a groove R.A. was in at this point, the kibosh was on and yep Dickey gave up a lead off single to Gonzalez. Then the force out was made at 2nd on Ankiel's grounder but Melky had to well be special. He wanted to score all the Braves runs tonight. Sheesh former Yankees are SO annoying. Melky tripled, Ankiel scored and ugh the Braves regained the lead over the Metsies, 2-1.

R.A was done after this inning and his numbers tonight were fantastic yet again. Here are the Dickey-licious stats:
6IP 5H 2R 2ER 4BB 2K 103 total pitches thrown

And Dickey didn't have to worry about picking up a loss tonight because the Mets were all about showing they had OOMPH and major fight in this game. In the top of the 7th Kyle Farnsworth was the new pitcher on the mound. The Braves just got him (and Ankiel) from Kansas City and well he sucked. Yay to the Mets not acquiring Kyle like it was rumored in that rumor mill thingy last week! On just 4 pitches Farnsworth gave up a lead off walk to Frenchy. Yes this did happen, yes on 4 pitches, yes yes Jeff doesn't always swing at everything and anything! Castillo then sac bunted, and Jeff was in scoring position for the pinch hitting THE ANIMAL CARTER. And well Chris was super duper clutch. The Animal singled, Jeff scored and oh this game was tied yet again, 2-2!

Pedro Feliciano got into some trouble in the bottom of the 7th but that former Bravo Manny Acosta knows all about stopping the bleeding! With Jones and McCann on 1st and 2nd and 1 out Manuel made that good old call to the bullpen and he brought in Acosta. Perpetual sucking Pedro was out! Bobby Cox had the "my knees suck" Troy Glaus pinch hit and well Acosta got Glaus to ground into a double play. It was splendid! And well it was kind of painful to watch Glaus attempt to run to 1st but oh well I'll live! Acosta pitched a scoreless 8th too and it was up to the Metsies in the top of the 9th to get their 15th come from behind win of the season!

Billy Wagner came in to pitch in the top of the 9th and well he was the Billy we remember! Frenchy was up and I just felt he was finally going to well not have just 1 hit in his last 23 at bats. He was going to have 2 hits in his last 24 at bats! And yep my woman's intuition was on! Jeff solo homered, his 10th homer of the season and the Mets now had the lead, 3-2. WHOA! The joy that was seen in the Metsies dugout after this homer was amazing. It's been so long since us fans have witnessed happiness in the dugout and it almost brought me to tears. Okay that's a lie but it was a pleasure to see! And for the record when Jeff homered I screamed so loud I'm pretty sure my neighbors might have thought there was an intruder in my house! And possibly fans at Turner Field even heard me! Okay that's another lie, my screaming can't compete with tomahawk chopping noises.

So now in the bottom of the 9th it was time for K-Rod goggles to shut the Braves down. And he did just that! I mean there was no drama at all. It was AMAZIN'! Infante and Heyward both grounded out and well there were 2 outs and it was up to Chipper to do something. And LARRRRRRRRRY sucked! He flew out and the ball game was over! Mets win, Mets win and well they are back to being 6 1/2 games behind not-so-HOTLANTA!

Ok now let's get to the Keith Hernandez business. Hmm what did he say tonight!? Here we go:

Mickey Mantle is his idol!

He was never a fan of Fulton County Stadium. It had a terrible infield.

He said "WIGWAM!" And well I wanted him to say it like 57 more times but nope he didn't.

Keith said it was "smoking" in Hotlanta today! He was sweating non-stop at the mall.

He liked R.A.'s demeanor on the mound.

He showed off some geographical knowledge. "Tennessee is a bordering state of Georgia." From Atlanta he said it takes about an hour and a 1/2 to get to Chattanooga. Do I know if this is true? NOPE. Keith is terrible at math so 1 1/2 hours can really mean 2 days or like a week.

He said Burkhardt was very inquisitive tonight. He also said this inquisitive nature is why Kevin gets paid the big bucks.

Keith said Isaac Benjamin Davis looks so much like the D-Backs Adam LaRoche. This is odd because I have been saying this to my Dad since well the D-Backs swept the Metsies in Arizona. Especially now that Isaac is without the beard. And really why did he shave? Did Frenchy tell him to? If so big mistake. Davis struck out for the 93rd time tonight. I imagine the sans beard thing had something to do with that. Okay I know it didn't but he has to get that beard back immediately! It's a integral part of the team!

So in tomorrow's rubber game it's up to well Big Pelf to pitch a gem or for the Mets to score so many runs that it doesn't matter if the BAD MIKE is at Turner Field. I really have no idea what to expect from Pelf but I'm gonna be an optimistic schmuck and well I believe the Mets can win tomorrow. Let's go METS!

As Gary Cohen Remarked, "Turner Field, A Place Where The Mets Have Had Their Most Shocking Failures."

Game 1: Braves 4 Mets 1

Hudson vs Santana

Of course when Gary made this comment about Turner Field during the telecast right before the top of the 1st I was the schmuck who thought he was being prematurely pessimistic but nope I was wrong and he was just being a very logical realist. A sage in fact. Turner Field will always be an evil place for the Mets to visit during important moments in their seasons. And well this game was over after the bottom of the first inning. When the Mets are down 3-0 lately there is no hope for a victorino and yep that's how things played out once again. They had plenty of opportunities to get some runs on the board but nope Beltran's rbi double in the top of the 5th was the lone run for the Metsies.

The Movie "Dinner For Schmucks" Doesn't Star The Atlanta Braves, Seriously!!??

Game 2: Braves 4 Mets 0

Tim Hudson vs Big Mike Pelfrey

Reyes left the game in the top of the 7th. Proof again that you don't let a player play injured! The end result is never really worth it.





Today's game aired on FOX and the announcers viewers were forced to deal with were Kenny Albert and Kevin Millar. FOX also showed previews for the movie "Dinner For Schmucks" multiple times during the broadcast. Before I make fun of this film and such I do want to say that yes I do want to see it. I just have to admit that before I get on with doing a little mocking.

So in this movie Paul Rudd's character is asked by his boss to bring a schmuck to a dinner party. Simple enough of a premise. And well it appears from the trailers and promos that the schmuck is Steve Carell. Well during this horrible game this schmuck business made me think that this afternoon there were a lot of schmucks Paul Rudd could bring to dinner! His good buddy Joe Buck did not do the announcing today so he's officially taken out of this scenario but Rudd could sure bring Kenny Albert and Kevin Millar to dinner. Two schmucks for the price of one! Honestly I didn't mind Kevin Millar a week ago during the Strasmas game. He was actually a nice fit with Joe Buck in the booth. Kevin's very goofy and he actually had amused me. And I'm pretty sure he's a nice enough fella. He seems like a genuine guy. I consider him like a 5th string Keith Hernandez. He's like the D-List version of Keith in the booth. Yeah that works. But today he just didn't shut up at all and well Kenny Albert is such a dud that the combo was just schumckalicioiusly torturous to listen to. But I'll get to some of the crazy stuff Kevin said today in a bit! Yeah like I said he didn't shut up!

More schmucks Paul Rudd could bring to dinner are Chipper Jones, Omar Infante and Tim Hudson! Tim Hudson today pitched a gem of a game for the Bravos. 7 scoreless innings, 4 hits, no runs, 2 walks and 3 strike outs. Yeah he's a schmuck. Chipper returned to the lineup after being scratched from yesterday's game due to back spasms and well he seemed healthy enough at the plate and yes he's probably the biggest schmuck of them all. And that Omar Infante just again proved to naysayers like myself that he deserves to be on the all star team. So yes he's another schmuck. And well they weren't at Citi Field but we can add the Miami Heat to the schmuck list too! I would never leave LeBron James out of this schmuckity schmuck talk.

So this is my plan, I'm going to try to not use the word schmuck again since I have now probably typed it more times in this recap than I have in my entire life. I'm also going to quickly just get to the top of the 5th inning when the Bravos did their damage to Big Pelf and then we can laugh at all the things Kevin Millar said. That millar nonsense should cheer us all up somewhat! Here we go!

The top of the 5th, the inning that just sucked! Going into the 5th the game was tied 0-0 and although Pelf had struggled inning after inning he had gotten out of every jam he put the Metsies in. These were jams you did not think the Amazins were getting out of. The Bravos had bases loaded with no outs in the top of the 4th and the Amazins averted danger somehow. I know it was crazy. But that getting out of sticky situations business was not happening in the 5th. LARRY led off this inning with a single. Then the all star McCann singled. And Troy Glaus decided to be an ass and he singled too and the Braves took a 1-0 lead over the Metsies. So now there were men on 1st and second with no outs for Eric Hinske. He singled and the bases were now loaded for the Mets killer Omar Infante. He singled too BOOOOOO! McCann scored and the Braves were now up 2-0 over the Metsies. At this point Manuel took Pelf out of the game and Dessens was asked to stop the bleeding. Elmer could do no such thing. It was Saturday bloody Saturday. The first batter he faced with the bases loaded and nobody out was Escobar. And Yunel grounded into a double play but Glaus scored and the Braves were now up 3-0 over the Amazins. Then fricking Tim Hudson got an rbi double and it was 4-0 Atlanta, ugh. Prado then flew out and the inning was finally over.

But yeah the damage was done in the 5th and the Mets had no fight at all in them yet again. Even when they got the lead off batter on they would find some way to leave him stranded. The Metsies grounded into 3 double plays today. Yeah it was nauseating.

Oh and here are Pelf's stats from tonight. They are not pretty:
4IP 12H 4R 4ER 3BB 2K
Overall Atlanta had 15 hits today. But on the bright side of all of this terribleness Takahashi pitched great in relief! 3 innings (6th, 7th, 8th)of scoreless relief from the Good Takahashi was delightful! Nieve pitched a scoreless 9th too!

AND Wagner came in again in the 9th to prove how incredible he is this season. It was a non-save situation but yeah I don't blame Bobby Cox for bringing Wagner in. If you want the door shut on a possibility of a comeback you bring in Billy. Wagner retired Wright, Davis and Bay faster than you can say "Dinner For Schmucks" and the ball game was over. Atlanta has now won 4 games in a row and they've already won this series. Hopefully they won't sweep tomorrow. I'm going to be at this game and yeah I am fearing the worst...I don't like brooms one iota!

But I have to snap out of that pessimistic frame of mind and to do that I'm now going to attempt to make us all LOL with some Kevin Millar wisdom. Ok I guess wisdom is not apropos for Kevin but we'll stick with wisdom anyways.

Kevin enjoys saying "What a neat thing!"

He thinks no MLB-er was better than Frank Thomas in the 90's.

During his career, Kevin stunk it up against Tim Hudson. 1 for 8. He admitted he was pathetic.

Last year Millar hit a grand salami off of R.A. Dickey.

Kevin thinks Bay will have a big second half. I have said this too and yeah even after these last 2 games I still agree with goofy!

Millar said "Barajas is one of the slowest human beings in the league."

He thinks Cora doesn't make a bad play on the baseball field.

He called Derek Lowe a dizzy blond. Well he actually calls Derek Lowe "D-Lowe." But yeah D-Lowe's a ditz.

Kevin thinks the Braves will win the World Series. WTF right!!!?????

He said the following, "What those rbi guys do when they get a guy on 3rd base, they smell those steaks. It's like bbq-ing in the backyard." This was definitely an attempt to be like Keith Hernandez. And yes I did laugh at this.

Since Eric Hinske has won a World Series ring 3 years in a row, Kevin said flat out he'd take Hinske on his squad any day over Sabathia, Halladay or Pujols. He naively assumes if Hinske's on your team you win a World Series. If he ends up being right about the Bravos winning the World Series, then well I guess I'm the schmuck Paul Rudd is taking to dinner!

He couldn't pronounce Hisanori so he said, "We are going to be on a last name basis with Takahashi."

He gets ragged on all the time by players, "Hey media guy!"

When Kevin saw Santana today he congratulated him on his first career homer. He called Johan "Papi."

He whistled when talking about Tejada. It was like a cat call whistle kind of thing. And then he remarked that Ruben looks like he's 15. He added something like does he even have a driver's license and that he must take the bus everywhere. Yeah yeah we get it Kevin, Ruben has a baby face haha.

As of now Millar thinks the Cy Young winner in the NL will be either Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright or Mike Pelfrey. Yeah he left out Josh Johnson and after the last couple of starts I think we know Big Pelf isn't getting the Cy Young. I just hope he can get that 11th win at this point.

And now to my favorite Millar moment! In the top of the 9th Kevin Millar busted out his Marv Albert impression. And I'll be honest it was dead on! He nailed it! To show off his impression he said the following: "Pippen and Jordan. That was Marv Albert's 'Patrick Ewing from DOWNTOWN' 77-76." Then he told Kenny he had wanted to do that all game. I am so glad he did! Kenny was not amused. But I was!

Oh this was funny too. Kevin called Billy Wagner "the little guy."

Well tomorrow is a new day. Santana put on a show because the Mets can't afford to get swept!

And the Metsies bats wake up! PLEASE wake up wake up wake up!

Atlanta Braves ZiPS Projections 2010: More Trouble

It really just has not been a good off-season for us Mets fans. From the fact that we had very little money to spend, to the fact that the money we DID spend we spent stupidly, things have been difficult. Just when you think matters cannot get worse, the Atlanta Braves ZiPS projections were released on Friday and, well, they look dangerous.

Once again, a huge thanks to Dan Szymborski for putting all the work into this. If you follow the link above to Baseball Think Factory, there is a link you can click to donate via Paypal and help support all of those great projects.

A couple of weeks ago, I wrapped up my three part review of the Mets ZiPS projections and concluded:

As currently constituted, the Mets would need a LOT of luck to compete this season. At a minimum, we need Reyes to remain healthy, Beltran to come back soon and healthy, for one of Pelfrey/Maine/Perez to really take a leap forward, and for Francisco Rodriguez to halt his slide.

This was based on a number of factors - but the primary reason was the apparent weakness of our starting rotation. Here is a look again at how our current top five project by ERA+: