When it comes to Mets prospects, I usually have a hard time understanding why the public perceives them the way that they do. Usually, scouting organizations and the media always find a way to frame the Mets farm system as one SUPERSTAR prospect and a bunch of bums.
But perception doesn't always match reality -- and when it comes to an organization like the Mets, for whom baseball's schadenfreude seems limitless -- things get blown grossly out of proportion. At this point, you can almost field an entire team out of failed Mets super-prospects from the last fifteen years - Isringhausen, Wilson, Pulsipher, Escobar, Ochoa, Heilman, Gomez, Martinez, Milledge.
However, the fact of the matter is, the Mets farm system might have been a little below average in the last decade or so, but it has had no problem churning out good major leaguers. Aside from David Wright and Jose Reyes, the Mets have developed Scott Kazmir, Ty Wigginton, Melvin Mora, Heath Bell, Jon Niese, Josh Thole, Matt Lindstrom, Bobby Parnell, and others.
Unfortunately for those who would like to cultivate that story, the Mets no longer have a top prospect who is destined for superstardom. As such, the remainder of the Mets prospects are downplayed, as usual. I'd like to demonstrate this by comparing one of our very own, Jenrry Mejia, to a player who has seen almost universal acclaim from prospect evaluators, Neftali Feliz. Mejia landed at #44 on this year's Baseball America top prospect list.
Entering last season, Neftali Feliz was an enormously hyped prospect. According to Baseball America, he was the #9 prospect in all of baseball. According to John Sickels, he was the #2 pitching prospect in the game, behind only Stephen Strasburg.
What had he done to earn all that hype? And don't get me wrong - he deserved it. Neftali Feliz's minor league career looks something like this:
2008 - A+ - 20 - 2.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 11.63 K/9 (as starter)
2008 - AA - 20 - 2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.33 K/9 (as starter)
2009 - AAA - 21 - 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.73 K/9 (mixed starting and relieving)
2009 - MLB - 21 - 1.74 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 11.32 K/9 (as reliever)
He was young, and he dominated each league he played in. From a scouting perspective, Feliz is listed as 6'3" 180 lbs and throws fire - a fastball averagine 96.3 mph over 80% of the time, along with a great curveball.
Mejia, on the other hand, has remained stagnant in most baseball prospect lists. He was the #56 prospect in baseball entering 2010, and only increased his standing to #44 in the most recent Baseball America list. But why such a little jump, when he did this the last two seasons?
2009 - A+ - 19 - 1.97 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.87 K/9
2009 - AA - 19 - 4.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.54 K/9
2010 - AA - 20 - 1.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.58 K/9
2010 - MLB - 4.62 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 5.08 K/9
The numbers for Mejia are not as encouraging on the surface as they are for Feliz, and he did finish out the year with a rhomboid strain - but you have to remember, these are professional scouting organizations and should not be basing their decisions on superficial information. That's what we bloggers do.
So from a scouting perspective, Mejia is 6'0" and 162 lbs, so tall but wiry like Feliz. He gets by with a blazing sinking fastball averaging 94.6 mph and an above average changeup. He also throws a curveball, like Feliz. He also tackled each of the above levels (plus one dominating start at AAA) a year younger than Feliz did.
So what separates last year's #9 best prospect in baseball (Feliz) from this year's #44 prospect (Mejia)? I have no idea[1].
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[1] And for the record, the players immediately surrounding Mejia in the rankings:
#43 Dellin Betances, a 22 year old who spent the year dominating in A+ ball, then pitching 14 great innings in AA. He posted a 0.91 WHIP and 12.56 K/9 in AA, which is great, but it was only 14 innings and he's already two full years older than Mejia.
#45 Aaron Hicks is a toolsy 20 year old outfielder who repeated low-A after an unsuccessful 2009 season where he posted a 735 OPS. In his second tour of Beloit, in the Midwest League, he posted a line of .279/.401/.428. However, he's still all projection at this point and hasn't shown any ability to hit for power. He's very athletic, and has shown good plate discipline, but right now he's at least a year and a half away.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Friday, February 11, 2011
Why The 2011 Mets Have a Chance
Spring is funny.
It's always the same, even when you think this year - even if ONLY this year - might be different.
But it's February, and I think the Mets have a chance.
Now, before you click away, humor me for a second. The 2011 edition of the Mets is not the pre-season darling like the 2008 Mets, or the 2007 Mets, or the 1988 Mets. But there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about this year's squad.
When we last saw our Mess -- pardon me, Mets -- they were crawling to the finish of a 79-83 season. Johan Santana had succumbed to season-ending surgery. Francisco Rodriguez was narrowly dodging jail time. Jason Bay was not recovered from his concussion. Our lame duck manager, Jerry Manuel, was mercifully let go.
If that weren't bad enough, the offseason brought even worse news. Although sabermetric and mainstream fans alike were delighted by the addition of Sandy Alderson and company, the far bigger news surrounded the Mets and their connection to the infamous Bernie Madoff scandal. Even now, there is an enormous amount of uncertainty about Mets ownership and whether they can even keep ownership of the team, much less add players.
So, Brian, when is the good news coming? You know, the part where you explain why you think the 2011 Mets might actually make some noise this season? Well, you got it RIGHT HERE:
Spring is not a time for *meaningless* optimism, but rather, a time when we step back from the real-life difficulties our team faced last season and look at things objectively. Instead of - if you are a serious Mets fan, like most of us are - feeling endlessly buffeted by bad news and simply waiting for the *other* bad news, you get a chance to take a breath and say, without irony, "hey, if my team gets a break or two, we could be in this thing."
And you'd be right to say it. Because baseball is a sport where even the tiniest adjustments can make for enormous differences. Unlike basketball or football where a bad team is hopeless and hard to even be optimistic about, in baseball, a break here or there can make the difference between an 85 and 90 win team. Heck, even if you don't get an actual lucky break, the best teams in baseball only win 60% of the time.
So, why do the Mets have a shot? Well, because -- and you may be shocked to hear this -- almost every single thing last season went WELL for the Mets.
When we were entering the 2010 season, the Mets were a disaster. Wright had come off a terrible season. Reyes was riddled with injuries. Beltran was hurt. Nobody knew what Mike Pelfrey was capable of. Mike Jacobs was the first baseman. It was foolish to expect, at this time last year, that the Mets would be able to compete. At the time, I advocated that the Mets take the year off, and build for 2012. Could they do well? Sure - but they would need a LOT of luck.
For the most part, the Mets actually DID have good luck. Most of the question marks above ended up being answered in a resoundingly positive fashion. Let's go point by point and take a look at just how good things really are:
1. Jose Reyes is back and healthy (and in a contract year).
After a 2009 season where he played only 33 games, nobody knew what to expect from the Mets two-time all star, silver slugger shortstop. Could he stay healthy? Could he return to form? Both questions were answered with a resounding yes.
After returning from his thyroid issue in April, Reyes got into 133 games. So how did he do once he got his legs under him and got to play baseball for a month (remember, he missed most of spring training)? He hit .298/.327/.475 over 300 at bats from June 17 to the end of the season.
That 803 OPS is higher than his career mark. If Reyes does even worse than he did in those four months last year (and there is no reason to suspect that he will regress) to give us a repeat of his 2007 season, the Mets will have a shortstop who will be 4.5 wins or more above replacement.
2. Carlos Beltran is back and sort-of healthy.
It is hard to say how Beltran will hold up over the grind of a full season, and I am not going to put much stock into tweets and blurbs from beat writers saying that Beltran is near 100%. However, one thing is true: when Beltran was back up to speed last year, he was vintage Carlos at the plate.
From August 16th to the end of the season - his whole season minus his first month back from injury - he batted an astounding .282/.368/.500, which is almost identical to his batting line from 2008. Whether he can stay healthy no one can say, but is a performance four or five times a week an unreasonable expectation?
An OPS of approximately 850-870 makes Beltran a 4 win player on offense alone.
3. David Wright bounced back offensively and proved he could hit for power in Citifield.
Ok, can we stop talking about it? Yes, there are other reasons for concern about Wright -- the strikeouts being the primary concern -- but he answered everyone's main concern last year beyond the shadow of a doubt.
Now that he can look back at his baseball card stats from 2010 and see 29 home runs, I expect that he will go back to doing what he does best -- being himself. Wright may never again be the player that was a 7 WAR player and perennial MVP candidate -- but I wouldn't bet against it. I don't see any reason why a player with those natural gifts, that incredible determination, and who had a thousand hits before his 27th birthday, can't return to form.
Even if he doesn't, and he just manages to replicate last year's 4 WAR performance, well, that's pretty darn good.
4. Mike Pelfrey bounced back from a poor 2009 to prove that he is a reliable mid-rotation starter.
Ignore from the moment the fact that I've been yelling from the rooftops for years now that Pelfrey has been essentially the same pitcher every year (xFIP: 4.4, 4.5, 4.4 over the last three years). The bottom line is this -- he bounced back from a season where he posted an ERA above 5 to notch a year with 15 wins and an ERA of 3.66.
Ignore from a moment also the fact that, aside from one poor month, that Pelfrey posted an ERA by month of : 0.69, 3.82, 3.54, 1.82, 3.86. Ignore that.
Take away both the optimistic and the pessimistic sides and look at the bottom line. Big Pelf appears to be a guy who can be counted on for 200 innings and to post an xFIP no higher than 4.50. In fact, there is reason to believe that that kind of season is the absolute worst that we can expect from him. He'll pitch this entire season at age 27 and he's got 683 major league innings under his belt. Perhaps this is the season that we can expect everything to "click" for him and for him to step up his game.
Even if he doesn't, he's a 2 or 3 win pitcher. And that's awesome.
5. R.A. Dickey came out of nowhere, and posted the 7th best ERA in the National League.
6. Jonathon Niese was great last year.
Remember, before the Mets left Niese out to rot on the vine in September, Niese had posted a 3.70 ERA with 124 strikeouts in 148 innings. He's tenacious, he doesn't walk a lot of batters, and he's only 24 years old. There is no reason to believe that he can't build on last season's meteoric -- and for some reason totally understated -- rise.
7. Angel Pagan met the most optimistic of projections
Power, stolen bases, and great defense in center field? Check, check, and check.
8. Josh Thole met the most optimistic of projections.
In fact, he may even have exceeded them. Not only was he league-average for a catcher with the bat, his defense far exceeded expectations. He cut down almost 50% of baserunners who tried to steal on him.
9. Bobby Parnell and Ike Davis had big, big seasons.
I could go on and on, but I'll stop. Here's the bottom line.
The 2010 Mets entered the season with BIG question marks at catcher, first base, second base, with their star shortstop, with their star third baseman, with their #2 starter, with their set up guy, and with their star centerfielder.
Almost all of those questions were resolved favorably. And as a BONUS, several players came out of nowhere to become enormous contributors.
Are the Mets, with the loss of Santana and the specter of the Phillies, the favorite? No, of course not. But when I look at this Mets team, I see a team that can score a LOT of runs. I see a team that has a TON of upside. And I see a team that is beginning to find a new identity.
These Mets remind me a lot of the 2005 Mets. They might not have enough to take it to the finish line, but there is a lot of reason for optimism.
It's always the same, even when you think this year - even if ONLY this year - might be different.
But it's February, and I think the Mets have a chance.
Now, before you click away, humor me for a second. The 2011 edition of the Mets is not the pre-season darling like the 2008 Mets, or the 2007 Mets, or the 1988 Mets. But there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about this year's squad.
When we last saw our Mess -- pardon me, Mets -- they were crawling to the finish of a 79-83 season. Johan Santana had succumbed to season-ending surgery. Francisco Rodriguez was narrowly dodging jail time. Jason Bay was not recovered from his concussion. Our lame duck manager, Jerry Manuel, was mercifully let go.
If that weren't bad enough, the offseason brought even worse news. Although sabermetric and mainstream fans alike were delighted by the addition of Sandy Alderson and company, the far bigger news surrounded the Mets and their connection to the infamous Bernie Madoff scandal. Even now, there is an enormous amount of uncertainty about Mets ownership and whether they can even keep ownership of the team, much less add players.
So, Brian, when is the good news coming? You know, the part where you explain why you think the 2011 Mets might actually make some noise this season? Well, you got it RIGHT HERE:
Spring is not a time for *meaningless* optimism, but rather, a time when we step back from the real-life difficulties our team faced last season and look at things objectively. Instead of - if you are a serious Mets fan, like most of us are - feeling endlessly buffeted by bad news and simply waiting for the *other* bad news, you get a chance to take a breath and say, without irony, "hey, if my team gets a break or two, we could be in this thing."
And you'd be right to say it. Because baseball is a sport where even the tiniest adjustments can make for enormous differences. Unlike basketball or football where a bad team is hopeless and hard to even be optimistic about, in baseball, a break here or there can make the difference between an 85 and 90 win team. Heck, even if you don't get an actual lucky break, the best teams in baseball only win 60% of the time.
So, why do the Mets have a shot? Well, because -- and you may be shocked to hear this -- almost every single thing last season went WELL for the Mets.
When we were entering the 2010 season, the Mets were a disaster. Wright had come off a terrible season. Reyes was riddled with injuries. Beltran was hurt. Nobody knew what Mike Pelfrey was capable of. Mike Jacobs was the first baseman. It was foolish to expect, at this time last year, that the Mets would be able to compete. At the time, I advocated that the Mets take the year off, and build for 2012. Could they do well? Sure - but they would need a LOT of luck.
For the most part, the Mets actually DID have good luck. Most of the question marks above ended up being answered in a resoundingly positive fashion. Let's go point by point and take a look at just how good things really are:
1. Jose Reyes is back and healthy (and in a contract year).
After a 2009 season where he played only 33 games, nobody knew what to expect from the Mets two-time all star, silver slugger shortstop. Could he stay healthy? Could he return to form? Both questions were answered with a resounding yes.
After returning from his thyroid issue in April, Reyes got into 133 games. So how did he do once he got his legs under him and got to play baseball for a month (remember, he missed most of spring training)? He hit .298/.327/.475 over 300 at bats from June 17 to the end of the season.
That 803 OPS is higher than his career mark. If Reyes does even worse than he did in those four months last year (and there is no reason to suspect that he will regress) to give us a repeat of his 2007 season, the Mets will have a shortstop who will be 4.5 wins or more above replacement.
2. Carlos Beltran is back and sort-of healthy.
It is hard to say how Beltran will hold up over the grind of a full season, and I am not going to put much stock into tweets and blurbs from beat writers saying that Beltran is near 100%. However, one thing is true: when Beltran was back up to speed last year, he was vintage Carlos at the plate.
From August 16th to the end of the season - his whole season minus his first month back from injury - he batted an astounding .282/.368/.500, which is almost identical to his batting line from 2008. Whether he can stay healthy no one can say, but is a performance four or five times a week an unreasonable expectation?
An OPS of approximately 850-870 makes Beltran a 4 win player on offense alone.
3. David Wright bounced back offensively and proved he could hit for power in Citifield.
Ok, can we stop talking about it? Yes, there are other reasons for concern about Wright -- the strikeouts being the primary concern -- but he answered everyone's main concern last year beyond the shadow of a doubt.
Now that he can look back at his baseball card stats from 2010 and see 29 home runs, I expect that he will go back to doing what he does best -- being himself. Wright may never again be the player that was a 7 WAR player and perennial MVP candidate -- but I wouldn't bet against it. I don't see any reason why a player with those natural gifts, that incredible determination, and who had a thousand hits before his 27th birthday, can't return to form.
Even if he doesn't, and he just manages to replicate last year's 4 WAR performance, well, that's pretty darn good.
4. Mike Pelfrey bounced back from a poor 2009 to prove that he is a reliable mid-rotation starter.
Ignore from the moment the fact that I've been yelling from the rooftops for years now that Pelfrey has been essentially the same pitcher every year (xFIP: 4.4, 4.5, 4.4 over the last three years). The bottom line is this -- he bounced back from a season where he posted an ERA above 5 to notch a year with 15 wins and an ERA of 3.66.
Ignore from a moment also the fact that, aside from one poor month, that Pelfrey posted an ERA by month of : 0.69, 3.82, 3.54, 1.82, 3.86. Ignore that.
Take away both the optimistic and the pessimistic sides and look at the bottom line. Big Pelf appears to be a guy who can be counted on for 200 innings and to post an xFIP no higher than 4.50. In fact, there is reason to believe that that kind of season is the absolute worst that we can expect from him. He'll pitch this entire season at age 27 and he's got 683 major league innings under his belt. Perhaps this is the season that we can expect everything to "click" for him and for him to step up his game.
Even if he doesn't, he's a 2 or 3 win pitcher. And that's awesome.
5. R.A. Dickey came out of nowhere, and posted the 7th best ERA in the National League.
6. Jonathon Niese was great last year.
Remember, before the Mets left Niese out to rot on the vine in September, Niese had posted a 3.70 ERA with 124 strikeouts in 148 innings. He's tenacious, he doesn't walk a lot of batters, and he's only 24 years old. There is no reason to believe that he can't build on last season's meteoric -- and for some reason totally understated -- rise.
7. Angel Pagan met the most optimistic of projections
Power, stolen bases, and great defense in center field? Check, check, and check.
8. Josh Thole met the most optimistic of projections.
In fact, he may even have exceeded them. Not only was he league-average for a catcher with the bat, his defense far exceeded expectations. He cut down almost 50% of baserunners who tried to steal on him.
9. Bobby Parnell and Ike Davis had big, big seasons.
I could go on and on, but I'll stop. Here's the bottom line.
The 2010 Mets entered the season with BIG question marks at catcher, first base, second base, with their star shortstop, with their star third baseman, with their #2 starter, with their set up guy, and with their star centerfielder.
Almost all of those questions were resolved favorably. And as a BONUS, several players came out of nowhere to become enormous contributors.
Are the Mets, with the loss of Santana and the specter of the Phillies, the favorite? No, of course not. But when I look at this Mets team, I see a team that can score a LOT of runs. I see a team that has a TON of upside. And I see a team that is beginning to find a new identity.
These Mets remind me a lot of the 2005 Mets. They might not have enough to take it to the finish line, but there is a lot of reason for optimism.
Monday, February 07, 2011
2011 New York Yankees Top 50 Prospects
The New York Yankees farm system had a big year in 2010 as many top prospects had breakout seasons and none of their highest ceiling players stumbled. The Yankees greatest strength remains catching and right-handed pitching, but left-handed pitcher Manny Banuelos is one of the best players in the system. They have also drafted a couple high ceiling position players in recent years and will look for them to have breakout seasons this year.
1. Jesus Montero - C/DH (Last year: 1)
An easy choice for the top spot, Montero got off to a slow start last season but quickly reminded everyone why he is regarded as one of the best hitters in the minor leagues. His defense remains below average but he could probably survive in the majors, at least in the short term. Regardless of where he plays, Montero should be a middle-of-the-order hitter for years to come. His ceiling is a high average hitter with the ability to compete for home run titles, and his floor appears to be something along the lines Paul Konerko. He should spend a good portion of 2011 in the majors, the only question is whether it will be with the Yankees or another team because he is a very attractive trade target.
2. Manny Banuelos - LHP (Last year: 2)
Appendicitis was the only thing that stopped Banuelos in 2010, and he pitched well beyond his years after recovering. He was also one of the most impressive pitchers in the Arizona Fall League, making up for some of the innings he lost during the regular season. Banuelos stuff is far more imposing than his stature as he stands about 5'10, prompting some scouts to worry about how much leverage he can generate on his pitches. His fastball comes in comfortably in the low-90s and his command of it is the best in the system. Both his curve and changeup are impressive and his repertoire is so advanced that it is easy to forget he will not be 20-years-old until March. He should spend most of 2011 in AA but if he continues to dominate hitters the Yankees may not be able to resist pushing him even more aggressively.
3. Dellin Betances - RHP (Last year: 25)
No Yankee prospect made more progress than Betances last season. Injuries and control had derailed him leading up to 2010 but after getting a late start to the season he was lights out for most of the year. He features the best pure stuff of any Yankees pitcher, routinely throwing in the mid-90s and showing an occasionally devastating curve. He stands 6'8 and his height allows him to generate an angle on both pitches that batters have trouble picking up. His command is still very inconsistent and is the biggest thing standing between him and the majors. His changeup also needs work but with how potent his first two offerings are, a third pitch is less important than it is for most prospects. 2011 will be about building on the flashes of brilliance Betances has shown, he will start the year back at AA with a chance of making his major league debut later in the season, similar to how Ivan Nova did last year.
4. Gary Sanchez - C (Last year: 6)
As a player who just turned 18 and has never played in a full-season league, evaluating Sanchez is incredibly difficult. We know that he has the tools to be a superstar and other than a few too many strikeouts, his debut went about as well as anyone could have hoped. A latin catcher who received a high bonus, Sanchez is inevitably compared to Montero but his bat is not quite as advanced. However, Sanchez has a much better chance at sticking behind the plate because he is more athletic. The Yankees are loaded with catching prospects but none offers nearly the combination of offensive and defensive upside that Sanchez does. He will get his first taste low-A this season where he will be one of the youngest regulars in the South Atlantic League.
5. Andrew Brackman - RHP (Last year: 7)
Brackman was drafted in 2007 but played like a legit prospect for the first time in 2010. Already 25-years-old, his career was stalled by injuries and wildness but things started to click for him last year. A similar type of pitcher to Betances, his fastball lacks the explosiveness he flashed in college but can still get to the mid-90s on occasion and his curveball once again looked like a plus pitch. He has toyed with a slider and changeup but neither has stuck as a third pitch yet, and if neither develops he may end up in the bullpen where his stuff may play up even more. He needs to work on throwing more quality strikes but as long as he stays healthy he should make it to the Bronx in some role this year.
6. Hector Noesi - RHP (Last year: 28)
Noesi gradually went from a virtual unknown in 2008 to a legitimate starting pitching prospect on the back of his fastball. His velocity is average or just above depending on the day, but he commands the pitch like a veteran and it has surprising life. He also features a decent changeup but has failed to develop a passable breaking ball, limiting his ceiling to a mid-rotation starter. Noesi is one of the most advanced pitchers in the system and if the various veteran options brought in by New York this year fail to hold a rotation slot, Noesi will be one of the first prospects to get a chance. He ended 2010 in AAA and will return there to start 2011.
7. Adam Warren - RHP (Last year: 12)
When the Yankees drafted Warren in the fourth round of 2009 I was very happy they found a player who had a track record of success at a major college program and also had enough stuff to succeed in the majors. Warren was pitching strongly in high-A to start 2010, generating a ton of ground balls but performed even better after a promotion to AA. He maintained his high GB/FB ratio but drastically increased his strikeouts. He throws four pitches but works primarily of a low-90s fastball. His cutter does a good job of keeping left and right-handed hitters in check and he will mix in a curve and change on occasion. With no true plus pitch Warren does not fit the profile New York typically looks for and he may end up excelling after a trade, similar to Ian Kennedy.
8. Austin Romine - C (Last year: 5)
Rombine continued his steady ascent through the minors in 2010, showing average tools across the board at AA. Offensively Romine does not have either the plat discipline or power to be an above average hitter, but he should make enough contact and knock enough doubles to be adequate for a catcher. Defensively most scouts seem to like his tools but he has never put up impressive caught stealing numbers and occasionally struggles with his receiving. Only 22-years-old, Romine has racked up 338 games in the minors and has consistently kept his head above water. He has no star potential but should have a solid major league career, most likely beginning at some point in 2012.
9. Ivan Nova - RHP (Last year: 39)
Nova had a dream 2010 season, beginning the year as an afterthought and ending it pitching important innings down the stretch in New York. His velocity jumped up a couple miles-per-hour and allowed him to miss more bats than ever while maintaining his always excellent ground-ball rate. Nova's bread-and-butter is his 91-95 fastball which also has solid movement. His big-breaking curve is inconsistent both in its shape and location but can be devastating when on. He rarely uses his decent changeup and should probably completely scrap his poor slider. In a perfect world the Yankees would like to use Nova out of the bullpen so he could focus solely on his fastball and curve, however he figures to spend most of 2011 in their rotation due to the retirement of Andy Pettitte and failure to sign Cliff Lee.
10. Brandon Laird - CIF/COF (Last year: 36)
The 2010 Eastern League MVP, Laird seems to earn more believers every season and for the first time entering a season I think he will have a big-league career. Laird is an aggressive hitter with solid pop and adequate defensive skills for any of the four corner positions. He has played primarily third base and has the hands to remain there. Even after his big 2010 it is difficult to see Laird as more than a second division regular due to his lack of patience or true plus power. He had a good chance to end up with a Ty Wigginton type of career, which is a lot more than I thought he was capable of at this time last year.
11. Slade Heathcott - CF (Last year: 4)
Heathcott remains extremely raw, even for a 20-year-old. He still has excellent tools across the board except for power and will return to low-A after striking out in over 1/3 of his at-bats there last season.
12. Graham Stoneburner - RHP (Last year: 13)
A sinker-slider pitcher with a decent chance to start who should be at least a good setup man if moved to the pen. His fastball can sit 89-92 as a starter with excellent movement and gets tons of grounders.
13. Brett Marshall - RHP (sLast year: 34)
He will play all of 2011 as a 21-year-old who has already survived Tommy John surgery. He got stronger as 2010 wore on and was touching 94 MPH late in the season with plus sink. Already with a high ceiling, Marshall would have ace potential if his stuff improves anymore, a possibility as he moves farther from surgery.
14. Jose Ramirez - RHP (Last year: 11)
Ramirez did not have the breakout 2010 I was expecting but he could still add velocity and his advanced changeup gives him a chance to develop into an above average starter if he can ever find an effective breaking ball.
15. David Phelps - RHP (Last year: 18)
Phelps has a fastball that can be plus at times but is not a top prospect because all three of his secondary pitches are below average. He dominated AA and was impressive at AAA in 2010 as a starter but may have to settle for being a reliever in the majors unless one of his breaking balls or changeup emerges.
16. Bryan Mitchell - RHP (Last year: 24)
A raw 2009 draft pick with a potentially plus fastball and curve, Mitchell needs a lot of work but could start rocketing up this list if he starts putting things together.
17. Eduardo Nunez - MIF (Last year: 31)
Nunez got 50 at-bats in the Bronx last year and held his own thanks to his solid pitch recognition skills and ability to make contact. He has above average defensive tools at shortstop but lacks the power or patience to be an asset with the bat. Because his glove is only solid and not plus he appears to be either a second division regular or utility infielder in the long-term.
18. Melky Mesa - COF (Last year: 20)
If Mesa could make consistent contact he would rank much, much higher on this list. With plus power, speed and arm strength, Mesa has tantalizing potential. An optimist could see him developing into a Drew Stubbs type of hitter who makes up for high strikeouts with power and base-running, but Mesa's bust potential is also extremely high.
19. Mason Williams - CF (Last year: NE)
The best player from New York's underwhelming 2010 draft, Williams is very similar to Heathcott as an athletic, raw center fielder with questionable hitting ability. We will have a better idea of who he is at this time next year.
20. J.R. Murphy - TBD (Last year: 10)
Murphy had a very disappointing 2010, as his bat was more raw than New York had hoped and his defense was so poor it is difficult to find anyone who believes he can catch. Considering he will have to move from behind the plate (most likely to third) his bat will have to carry him and that seems less likely to happen than it did at this time last year.
21. David Adams - 2b/3b (Last year: 9)
I was probably the high man on Adams last year and he was on his way to justifying my belief in him before breaking his ankle. Adams can hit but the injury clouds his defensive ability and therefore his value. How he bounces back will be a key thing to watch in 2011.
22. Corban Joseph - 2b/3b (Last year: 15)
Most evaluators seem to prefer Joseph to Adams but I believe in Adams' bat more and Joseph's defense is not appreciably better either. He needs to prove he can hit more advanced pitching after going homerless in 111 AA at-bats last year.
23. Tommy Kahnle - RHP (Last year: NE)
One of the few draft picks New York made last year that I liked, Kahnle is a pure reliever with a power repertoire. He can touch the upper-90s and has an average slider. If he can throw strikes Kahnle should move very quickly up the minor league ladder.
24. Jairo Heredia - RHP (Last year: 29)
Heredia has had trouble staying healthy and has never shown plus velocity, but his combination of polish and age makes him an at least intriguing prospect when all is right.
25. Angelo Gumbs - TBD (Last year: NE)
An incredibly raw athlete with minimal baseball skills, Gumbs probably will not see full-season ball until at least 2012 but has the bat-speed to make scouts believe that he could hit with authority down the road. He is a major project, but one to keep an eye on.
26. Cito Culver - SS (Last year: NE)
I made no secret of my distaste for Culver's selection last year and little has changed. Culver can probably play shortstop but looks like a hitter who will struggle both to make contact and drive the ball, a profile that rarely leads to success.
27. D.J. Mitchell - RHP (Last year: 14)
Mitchell is adept at inducing grounders but has not missed nearly enough bats to profile as an impact pitcher. His stuff is also average to fringy across the board and it looks like he will have to move into the pen to ever make it all the way to New York.
28. Chase Whitley - RHP (Last year: NE)
A two-way player in college with a plus changeup and a chance to start. Whitley was a sleeper in the 2011 draft and the Yankees potentially may have found a steal. He is raw for a college player but will be worth keeping an eye on in 2011.
29. Pat Venditte - RHP/LHP (Last year: 50)
Venditte posted another impressive season in 2010, this time at high-A. The Yankees will keep moving him up the ladder till he fails, but it is difficult to see someone (even a switch-pitcher) have success at the higher levels with such a below average repertoire.
30. Brad Suttle - CIF (Last year: 32)
I believed in Suttle before an injury cost him 2009. He played a full schedule last year at high-A as a 24-year-old and was O.K. but will have to improve drastically this season if he is going to be considered a legitimate prospect again.
31. Ben Gamel - COF (Last year: NE)
An advanced hitter for a player being drafted out of high school, Gamel offers little else and has fringy tools across the board. He has an excellent, smooth, swing but will need a productive season in 2011 to put himself on the prospect map.
32. Kelvin DeLeon - COF (Last year: 17)
DeLeon's poor showing in the New York-Penn League last year was a major disappointment after he showed a potentially impact bat in 2009. He is not a great athlete and will have to make way more contact and take more walks to move up the ladder.
33. Robert Fish - LHP (Last year: NE)
Taken in the Rule V Draft, Fish is left-handed and can throw in the mid-90s so he will be given a chance to stick in the bullpen. He has poor command and no second pitch of note so he will have have to get by on just arm strength if New York decides to keep him.
34. Connor Mullee - RHP (Last year: NE)
Mullee rarely pitched in college but can hit the mid-90s and is an intriguing sleeper if the Yankees can teach him how to throw anything other than a fastball.
35. Daniel Brewer - OF (Last year: NR)
Brewer went from total non-prospect to potentially interesting after posting a .270/.346/.407 line in AA as a 22-23-year-old. He seems like a bit of a tweener to me with not quite enough range for center and not enough bat for a corner spot but he could prove me wrong.
36. Colin Curtis - OF (Last year: NR)
I have often referred to Curtis as a homeless-man's Mark Kotsay but he had his most productive season in AAA last year, earning an unimpressive cameo in New York. Curtis has a chance to stick on a Major League bench as a versatile reserve outfielder.
37. Abraham Almonte - COF (Last year: NR)
Almonte still has never had the breakout season some scouts predicted, but he had a respectable season in low-A last year, making consistent contact and taking advantage of his plus speed.
38. Rob Segedin - CIF (Last year: NE)
Segedin does not wow scouts but he showed a discerning eye and some pop at Tulane before being drafted in the 3rd round last year. It will be interesting to see how he fairs against more advanced competition in 2011.
39. Evan Rutckyj - LHP (Last year: NE)
A tall, projectable lefty with some upside. The Yankees will take it slow with Rutckyj who should open 2011 in extended spring training and not see full-season ball until 2012.
40. Jeremy Bleich - LHP (Last year: 27)
Another draft pick I hated at the time and grow even less fond of as we go forward. He missed most of 2010 after surgery in May but should be ready for spring training and will attempt to restart his career this year.
41. Ryan Pope - RHP (Last year: 49)
Pope finally moved to the bullpen at AA last season but his stuff did not quite tick up enough to project him to have much of an impact in the majors. He will probably move into the AAA bullpen this year and is polished enough that he could be one of the earlier people in line for a call up.
42. Caleb Cotham - RHP (Last year: 16)
Cotham was a very similar pitcher to Graham Stoneburner but he has rarely been able to take the mound since being drafted in 2009 due to injuries. 2011 will be an important year to see if he has recovered and can return to the prospect landscape.
43. Sean Black - RHP (Last year: 19)
The Yankees have attempted to develop Black as a starter but his command is fringy and his stuff is very inconsistent. He also has some rough mechanics and all of that screams reliever to me. As a reliever he has a chance to see his velocity approach the mid-90s, drastically helping his profile.
44. Romulo Sanchez - RHP (Last year: 41)
Sanchez throws hard but rarely has any idea where the ball is going. He mixes in a changeup and slider, both of which are passable for a power arm but he will never be more than a middle reliever unless he starts to show some command.
45. Kyle Higashioka - C (Last year: 48)
Higashioka made his full season debut last year and continued to show just enough tools to be considered a potential backup catcher some day. He has some on-base skills and defensive aptitude but not standout trait that would project him as a starter.
46. Greg Golson - OF (Last year: NR)
Golson is what he is at this point, a speeder outfielder with nice tools and no ability to really use them. Although he has a little pop Golson will strictly be a pinch runner/defensive replacement with the Yankees.
47. Nik Turley - LHP (Last year: NR)
A super-deep sleeper with some projection, Turley has not shown much development yet and will probably be a reliever before long, but has a pitcher's frame and may develop the stuff to match down the road.
48. Dan Turpen - RHP (Last year: NE)
A Rule V pick from the Red Sox, Turpen has almost no chance of sticking in the New York bullpen, particularly because he is nowhere near as interesting a pitcher as Robert Fish.
49. Kyle Roller - 1b (Last year: NE)
Roller has more raw power than any other Yankees 2010 draftee and that alone makes him at least worth paying attention to this year. He will be 23-years-old in March an has no defensive value so he will have to hit the ground running or be quickly forgotten.
50. Josh Romanski - LHP (Last year: NE)
A former two-way player in college, Romanski has three pitches ranging from fringy to average. He had a nice season in 2010 though he was very old for his leagues. He should get more of a challenge this season and that will give us a better indication how seriously we should take him as a prospect.
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