Time to Shut Niese Down

A couple weeks ago, Jerry Manuel was asked how he felt about capping the workload this season for Jon Niese. His answer was thoughtful:

“They kind of have to kind to convince me,” Manuel said. “Because I believe a guy should learn how to pitch. The more he gets out there, the better pitcher he’s going to become for you.”

“Because if you’ve got a guy pitching well, and you’re trying to win games, then that puts some shackles on you,” Manuel said. “That’s tough. What if a guy’s throwing a no-hitter?”

“I don’t have any problems with the dialogue or what have you,” he said. “If the majority feels that [he should be limited], and proves that this is going to make something better for whatever, I don’t see a problem with that.” Source: NJ.com

I happen to still like Manuel, and that was a reasonable argument made at a time when it made sense. A dialogue is good, and you might want to use your instinct and senses in addition to looking at a strict numerical pattern - especially considering Niese has hurled around 180 innings in a season before (in 2008).

Ownership v. Management and the #averagejob

Okay Will Davidian, I'll take the bait.

In a post yesterday afternoon, I lambasted the Mets for the terrible situation they have put us in by having $110 million committed to only seven players (or depending on your source, around $112 million to eight). I criticized them for lacking a plan. And finally, I questioned whether the Mets will ever win with the current ownership.

Then, and in a footnote mind you, I mentioned that I thought that Minaya and Manuel are "doing at least an average job." Erm. Well, Mr. Davidian then spent the night poking fun at the phrase via twitter. Since I'm an old fart or something, I needed to get this news from Roger via email:

Nick Evans started Game 162 of 2008. He started three games in September/October of 2009. #averagejob #15org

The manager called a player soft after he suffered a concussion breaking up a double play. #averagejob #15org

Elmer Dessens is getting paid $1M to be terrible. Thanks Omar? @FonzieForever

Mets lost two game on a West Coast trip with Oliver Perez on the mound. K-Rod was unused in either game. #averagejob #15org

Okay, har har, well played. And don't get me wrong - I actually do find these kinds of things amusing. I find it interesting that Mets fans have such a unique community here among the blogs/twitter, etc... in fact, unique not only in terms of media used, but also by team. Mets fans dominate talk radio here in the city, and it seems that they occupy a unique space here on the internet as well -- it is our curse.

That said, I am going to try and defend the statement. There are three points:

1. When I say average, I do not mean the strict arithmetic mean. I don't think anyone does. If I had said "okay" or "decent" the statement would have provided way less material... but I said average.

2. They may well have been average, even by that definition. Could Omar and Jerry have been the 15th best team? I think you could make the argument. Have you watched other teams?

Managers for different clubs make absolutely terrible moves all the time. Just watch out of town games - I promise you, your hatred for Manuel will decrease immediately. In addition, there has been more ink spilled on the uselessness of managers tactical decisions than I feel comfortable talking about. It's just not a worthwhile topic of conversation unless you're at an absolute extreme - and I like that this team likes to play for Jerry.

The job done by Omar Minaya looks even rosier by comparison. Every team is saddled with bad contracts, sometimes several. Take a look at this list by Sky Andrecheck in Sports Illustrated from December of 2009: Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Barry Zito, Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, Oliver Perez, Gary Matthews Jr. ($23 million owed by Angels), Aaron Rowand, Juan Pierre, Milton Bradley.

Big League Stew did a similar list, but this time took the ten worst contracts of the decade. You will see not a single Met contract on that list. Add familiar names like Chan Ho Park and Mike Hampton, and you'll think the Castillo deal meaningless by comparison.

Heck, Minaya barely makes MLB Trade Rumors' list of 10 Worst Free Agent Signings of this past offseason. That list includes the likes of Matt Holliday, Jason Kendall, Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa, etc. Alex Cora cracks the list at #10, but at $2 million, who cares?

I say this while keeping as objective as possible. Only a casual perusal of the Fonzie archives from this past offseason will show my absolute frustration with the team's moves. But I'm realistic -- Omar has been okay, minus one fatal flaw.

3. The lack of a plan and forced bad free agent signings, I suspect, originate from Mets ownership. This is as close to speculation as you'll probably ever find on this site, but it's a feeling that I just can't shake. Many have complained that the Mets moves over the last two years have been the direct result of the Wilpons' losses in the Madoff scandal, and evidence of that fact is getting harder and harder to refute.

I resisted this insinuation -- always believing that the Mets would sustain themselves through ticket sales and the like -- but the bottom line is that Omar wasn't able to make any kind of move in June when the Mets were in it, and he made one huge boneheaded signing in the offseason, in December when season ticket sales were flagging. A blog entry over at forbes.com does a good job of summarizing the argument for me:

Baseball’s worst owner? Always tough to say, given how subjective the arguments can be. But the Mets’ Fred Wilpon is certainly making a good run at it.

* * *

Wilpon’s general manager, Omar Minaya, makes the big splash every winter (Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Frankie Rodriguez, and now Jason Bay) only to find disappointment by the following October. Minaya’s predecessor, Steve Phillips, did the same thing, trying to transition an aging 2000 World Series team on the fly by picking up the washed up Mo Vaughan, Roberto Alomar and Pedro Astacio. Result: four straight seasons finishing third or lower. Both Phillips and Minaya have taken a lot of heat from local fans and press. But who did each work for? Wilpon, under whom the Mets are 639-655 since he wrested full control from former partner Nelson Doubleday in 2002.

* * *

But that one step back that’s usually required to move two steps forward is one that Wilpon has never been willing to take. The Mets have become a franchise with a handful of stars supported by a soft underbelly...

One look at the Mets moves from the last couple of years shows that the Mets are willing to make one big addition as the last year's big addition comes off the books. They get to maintain the status quo in terms of payroll while being able to tout a new addition to the team.

Welcome to the team, Carlos Beltran? No mention of the goodbye to Mike Piazza.
Nice to see you, Francisco Rodriguez? You'll be replacing Billy Wagner.
Thank you for joining us, Jason Bay! You'll be batting fifth, because we're parting ways with Carlos Delgado.

There is no way this doesn't come from the ownership. There is no way that you go out and sign Jason Bay to a mega-contract yet choose not to part with a young prospect at the deadline for help for the playoff push if you are "going for it". For that matter, there is no way you look at the team as it was constituted last offseason and truly believe that Jason Bay is going to make the difference on the field. And what of the things that Minaya can control? Excellent drafts and a plentiful farm system. R.A. Dickey. Hisanori Takahashi. Trading for Santana.

The problem is that the Mets exist in perpetual limbo. They had a good run from 2006-2008, but so much of that was just luck -- we managed to develop two of the best players in the league, and two players who may end up as the two best Mets hitters of all time, at the exact same time. They supplemented a core of free agent stars.

Now, David Wright and Jose Reyes are becoming expensive. Jason Bay's contract is back loaded. The window of opportunity to capitalize on their youth is passed, and Johan Santana isn't getting any younger.

I'm not saying the Mets can never win, I'm just saying that they can't win so long as the current ownership continues to require Minaya to make a ticket-selling "splash" each offseason and then ties his hands otherwise. In light of all this, I think Minaya has been doing an average job.-

The Fifth Starter Competition, And Why Nobody Should Be Listening to Jerry Manuel

There has been a lot of talk about the fifth starter spot this spring, but few of the reports have taken a large-scale look at the situation as a whole. So let's set the record straight and figure out as much as we can about the candidates right now. Below are the spring training statistics for the four men who are can be considered true candidates for the spot:

Fernando Nieve: 3 games, 9 IP, 12 hits, 6 runs, 5 bb, 2 K
Nelson Figueroa: 3 games, 8 IP, 4 hits, 0 runs, 3 bb, 9 K
Jonathan Niese: 3 games, 7.2 IP, 10 hits, 6 earned runs, 4 bb, 7 K
Hisanori Takahashi: 2 games, 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs, 0 bb, 9 K

Obviously, a few spring innings are not going to tell you much about the player posting them. What is interesting, however, is that in the four men, we have the four most hilariously stereotypical rotation contenders imaginable:


Fernando Nieve -- The Former Top Prospect, resurrecting his career
Nelson Figueroa -- The Journeyman, struggling to prove himself
Jonathan Niese -- The Real Prospect, trying to break into the Show
Hisanori Takahashi -- The Japanese League Veteran , shrouded in mystery.


We've got righties and we've got lefties. We have old and young. We have hard throwers and soft-tossers. It's great.


Who else is in favor of tossing Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine overboard and just going with these guys? At the very least, we could have an interesting Mighty Ducks-style story on our hands. Especially if we include Ryota Igarashi, aka "Swallows Man."

Storyline aside, there is one very important issue. The most important issue, in fact, one which I believe that the beat writers and bloggers have been avoiding for the most part:

What are our goals for this season and beyond, and what do each player offer us to help us toward that goal?

If our objective was to "win now" we could hand the job to the best pitcher, toss the other three in the bullpen, and promote Jennry Mejia right away.

If our objective is to play for 2011, we should send Jon Niese to Triple-A and plug whoever will sell the most tickets into the fifth starter slot.

If, as I imagine, our objective is somewhere in between, the picture becomes less clear, and it is important for us to consider what each of the players offer. It appears that the Mets consider Takahashi and Nieve as candidates for the bullpen, but not Figueroa. According to Brian Costa of the Star-Ledger, Fernando Nieve is the only candidate who is out of options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without clearing waivers. Each player also offers us a different potential ceiling and floor for their performance.

The one person whose input we should not be taking into account is Jerry Manuel. This is not because I don't like Jerry - in fact, I think he's not a bad manager. However, it is inherent in his position that he wants to win NOW, without regard to the future development of our prospects and without regard to service time and free agency. I don't blame him. If my job depended on how the Mets performed in the first 40 games, I would probably do the same thing. This is precisely why we need to adhere to the manager/GM system which we allegedly have in effect. Manuel, despite all his sneaky comments to the press, particularly about Mejia, shouldn't have much, if any, input into the final shape of our roster.

All of these players are much more than their spring statistics would indicate, but delving into each would take another post altogether. But knowing just the basics, a few things are clear. Fernando Nieve and Hisanori Takahashi will be on the roster Opening Day. If I had it my way, both would be in the bullpen and Nelson Figueroa would be the fifth starter. Jon Niese would have a few months to hone his craft in Triple-A.

This option allows us to a) retain all our players, b) allows Niese to mature as a pitcher, and c) gives Figueroa the shot at the rotation that everyone thinks he deserves. Just as importantly, it moves two potentially powerful forces to the bullpen. Seeing as most pitchers are more effective when relieving rather than starting, Nieve and Takahashi could potentially provide a huge boost to our weakest unit. Takahashi, in particular, would provide us with a second left-handed option in addition to Pedro Feliciano.

A bullpen of Frankie Rodriguez, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Ryota Igarashi, Nieve and Takahashi is deep and provides a variety of different looks.

For the best chance of winning now, holding on to our player properties, and allowing Jon Niese to reach his potential, this arrangement seems to be the obvious answer.

The Talent Is On The Doorstep

Two days ago the Times ran a great piece on the Mets farm system entitled "The Mets Future Suddenly Feels Far From Barren." The piece was written by David Waldstein, who Metsblog recently gave props to, calling him "smart" and that he is "doing a terrific job." I'd tend to agree.

Here are some snips:

Manager Jerry Manuel has been raving about the prospects who he thinks could help the Mets this season — like 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia, who has drawn comparisons of sorts from Manuel and Dan Warthen, the pitching coach, to both Mariano Rivera and Dwight Gooden...

The promising first baseman Ike Davis already has 12 total bases in 13 at-bats, including one towering blast that Manuel said was hit as far as any ball he has seen at Port St. Lucie. Manuel said Davis could also prompt him to rethink plans to send him down to Class AAA Buffalo if he continues to hit the way he has...

If Josh Thole, a young hitter with a sweet swing and a burning desire to improve, continues to learn his position, he is likely to be the Mets’ catcher of the future.

* * *

And finally, Fernando Martinez, who may be the best of the team’s prospects, hit two solo home runs and had four hits in four at-bats.

* * *

Only six games have been played, and this is the time for the young players to take the field. As spring training progresses, more at-bats and innings will be taken up by the veterans as they prepare for the regular season. But with Mejia, Davis, Thole and Martinez, the Mets’ future may not be as bleak as it appeared a year ago.

It's a short - but very good - read. Waldstein seems to take a good objective look at things, especially in the way he referred to Fernando Martinez. It's easy to forget about F-Mart this year, with all the hype around Davis and Mejia, and maybe that's a good thing.

For the spring, in case you are wondering, Martinez is hitting .588/.556/1.176 and leads the team in total bases.

And even if you don't think that any of these players are going to be world-beaters and all-stars, it's hard not to agree with Manuel's assessment when he says:

“What happened last year is that those guys were, like, a year away,” Manuel said. “And now if anything were to go wrong in terms of questions of depth, we’re seeing some young players come up and play extremely well...

“The talent is on the doorstep,” Manuel said. “It’s not in the living room, but it’s right there waiting.”

And although I think I join a majority of sabermetrically inclined Mets fans when I say I'd prefer to see Mejia starting in Binghamton rather than setting up in Queens - it is undeniable that these prospects all seem to be blossoming at the same time.

From the blue-chippers who have a chance to become stars someday (Mejia, Martinez) to players who have a decent chance of being good regulars (Davis, Thole, Havens, Niese) there is opportunity. And just as importantly, there is a whole crop of players who could be useful parts and cheap - including guys like Parnell, Kunz, Takahashi, Figueroa, and Gee.

The talent is on the doorstep, and it will be interesting to see how much is there.

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[1] Ok, I didn't really look hard. Or at all.