Relative Definitions of Success

Hypothetical question for Mets fans out there.

Say Fernando Martinez were called up next year in, say, May of 2011.

Say that, hypothetically, Fernando Martinez were able to play pretty good defense in a corner outfield position. Let's put him at an UZR/150 of +8, which is pretty good.

At the dish, Martinez posts a line which I think people might call "meh." Let's put Martinez at a .250/.325/.435 slash line with 15 home runs, 54 RBI, and 96 strikeouts.

Would you call that season a success? A disappointment? Somewhere in between?

I think most fans would consider that a let-down, but I would consider it the exact season that Ike Davis is having this year. Look for yourself. Here at Fonzie Forever, we pride ourselves on being forward-thinking, so we're heading this off at the pass in advance.

Ike Davis is having a pretty decent year. He's 23 years old. Fernando Martinez is a year and a half younger. Let's hope he gets as fair a shake as Ike.

Reaction: Fernando Martinez and Ruben Tejada Called Up

Anyone know why this is? I could see it being spun in one of two ways. Either a) the Mets need an infusion of youth and energy and blah blah blah to make a run at the pennant, or b) the Mets are throwing in the towel. Obviously, the Mets will say option A -- but is it true? It may well be that they believe having Martinez and Tejada around will make them a better team than having Castillo/Cora/Feliciano see time.

Regardless of the motivation behind the move, I am not very optimistic about this. I love seeing Tejada out there at second, and honestly don't care his offensive deficiencies so long as he can hit north of .220 or so - but to me, this is all about Fernando.

You'll find few Fernando Martinez boosters bigger than me. But in my mind, he's taken a big step back this year. I only wanted to see Fernando Martinez back up with the big club again in one of two scenarios: either he's up because he's the best option we have and we are making a playoff run, OR he's up for good. This strikes me as neither. Does bringing up Fernando to platoon with Francoeur help anything (aside from creating a platoon we can call Franc-nando? Fer-coeur? Frartinez!)?

By most objective measures, Fernando has not taken a step forward from his performance in Triple-A last season. He batting a paltry .261/.326/.470 on the season, he's missed time due to injury, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is just as bad as it was last year. Yes, he's been very hot lately at Buffalo, posting a line of .324/.425/.588 with five walks over his last ten games, but isn't that the kind of hot streak you are supposed to BUILD on, rather than extinguish right away?

I wish I could expound on this further, but I have to say generally that I am not impressed with the move. I wish Fernando would have been left in Triple-A to ride out this streak. Now, he's been promoted to the majors to platoon (albeit the long side of the platoon) and face Roy Halladay and Ubaldo Jimenez in his first two starts.

Hopefully he continues his hot hitting (he was hitting to the tune of an 832 OPS versus RH for the season) but for the most part, I'm confused.

Why Hello there Tejada and Martinez!

So according to MLB.com it is now official. I have all the answers I had been dying to know. The Mets are much faster in revealing their super duper surprise plot twists than well "LOST" ever was. I didn't even have to wait for the DVD to see the special never before aired footage!

The Mets made the following moves today:
1. They cut Alex Cora
2. They optioned Jesus Feliciano to Triple-A Buffalo
3. And lastly they are recalling prospects Ruben Tejada and Fernando Martinez

Will these moves ignite a fire in the Mets and well their bats tonight? I sure hope so! We will find out in due time.

And now to some Facebook comments that were made by fellow Metsies fans in regards to this MLB.com update, here we go:

"MARK CUBAN for OWNER ! WHO'S IN ?"

"famous words from Joe Benigno......OH THE PAIN!!!!!"

"BRING UP THE BUFFALO TEAM OR THE CYCLONES, THEY SEEM TO BE WINNING GAMES!!! lol"

"Mets cut Minaya and Manuel, recall Bobby Valentine and Davey Johnson"

"Hire Wally bachman"

"How about that dead weight in the bullpen - Perez......."

"Now hire Cora to be the manager."

"Wow. It's like poking a drunk with a stick. No, even that would cause more movement."

"I want an investigation into whether there is a conspiracy to destroy the Mets, Rangers and Knicks"

Fernando Martinez Update!

July 16, 2010 - 1:40PM
Pointed out by Amazin Avenue's daily minor league recap: RF Fernando Martinez: 3-5, 2 HR(9), 2 RBI, 3 R, K (.266/.327/.473) Hopefully the start of a big second half

That is now a line of .324/.419/.757 for an OPS of 1.175. He's taking walks finally - five in his last ten games - and hitting with his customary power. He also never strikes out - five in his last 37 at-bats.

Kid is a stud. I can't wait. He could be our fifth outfielder in September.

July 6, 2010 - 3:01PM
In his last ten games, hitting a robust .278/.333/.583 for a .917 OPS. Includes 10 strikeouts in only 36 at-bats but he's coming back strong after his latest injury.

He's awesome. He's still 21, and won't be 22 until October.

Keep hitting, Fernando. Don't pay any attention to the haters. Hit and hit and hit (and please take a walk once in a while) and soon you'll be back.

Fernando Martinez is NOT Alex Escobar

I wasn't planning on writing again tonight, but I saw something tonight that made me flip my lid. This isn't the first time either. I've started to see this a lot lately.

Metsblog had an update today about Fernando Martinez. F-Mart is injured again and missing a little time. There really is no word on the severity of the injury, and it's likely that the Mets are just being cautious as usual. But then I made the mistake of reading the Metsblog comments.

I'd ignore this comment if it was an isolated incident, but I have started to see comments like this a lot lately:

I’ve seen F-Mart before – his name then was Alex Escobar. Escobar never made it on the major league level and from all accounts, neither will F-Mart.

Sigh.

Bad News on Fernando Martinez Front

My love for all things Fernando Martinez is well chronicled. I've firmly stated my belief that he's underrated, that he's a stud, and that he's our best prospect. However, in the interest of unbiased and truthful journalism, I have to pass on an important nugget of information I discovered today.

Fernando Martinez has yet to walk this season in Triple-A.

Is Fernando Martinez An Option In Center Field?

Well, if John Harper of the Daily News has his way, perhaps. Harper suggested in an article yesterday that the Mets would be better off starting Fernando and pushing Angel Pagan to the bench. This idea could not be dumber.

Harper prefaces his suggestion by pointing out to us that Angel Pagan made a mistake in Thursday's exhibition against the Red Sox. He continues:

When I later asked another Mets player about it, he tapped a finger against his head and walked away. Enough said.

For that matter, we saw enough of Pagan's baserunning adventures last season to know that no amount of coaching is going to keep him from making costly mistakes at times.

The point is, now that Jose Reyes is apparently going to join Beltran on the disabled list to start the season, the Mets need to rethink their options. Specifically they need to think about a way to make their lineup more dynamic, as well as less prone to the mistakes that were killing them last season even before all the injuries.

Yes, Pagan caught the ball in a bad position to throw. But let's not lose our heads here - it was one play in a spring training game. Who knows why it happened?

The Talent Is On The Doorstep

Two days ago the Times ran a great piece on the Mets farm system entitled "The Mets Future Suddenly Feels Far From Barren." The piece was written by David Waldstein, who Metsblog recently gave props to, calling him "smart" and that he is "doing a terrific job." I'd tend to agree.

Here are some snips:

Manager Jerry Manuel has been raving about the prospects who he thinks could help the Mets this season — like 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia, who has drawn comparisons of sorts from Manuel and Dan Warthen, the pitching coach, to both Mariano Rivera and Dwight Gooden...

The promising first baseman Ike Davis already has 12 total bases in 13 at-bats, including one towering blast that Manuel said was hit as far as any ball he has seen at Port St. Lucie. Manuel said Davis could also prompt him to rethink plans to send him down to Class AAA Buffalo if he continues to hit the way he has...

If Josh Thole, a young hitter with a sweet swing and a burning desire to improve, continues to learn his position, he is likely to be the Mets’ catcher of the future.

* * *

And finally, Fernando Martinez, who may be the best of the team’s prospects, hit two solo home runs and had four hits in four at-bats.

* * *

Only six games have been played, and this is the time for the young players to take the field. As spring training progresses, more at-bats and innings will be taken up by the veterans as they prepare for the regular season. But with Mejia, Davis, Thole and Martinez, the Mets’ future may not be as bleak as it appeared a year ago.

It's a short - but very good - read. Waldstein seems to take a good objective look at things, especially in the way he referred to Fernando Martinez. It's easy to forget about F-Mart this year, with all the hype around Davis and Mejia, and maybe that's a good thing.

For the spring, in case you are wondering, Martinez is hitting .588/.556/1.176 and leads the team in total bases.

And even if you don't think that any of these players are going to be world-beaters and all-stars, it's hard not to agree with Manuel's assessment when he says:

“What happened last year is that those guys were, like, a year away,” Manuel said. “And now if anything were to go wrong in terms of questions of depth, we’re seeing some young players come up and play extremely well...

“The talent is on the doorstep,” Manuel said. “It’s not in the living room, but it’s right there waiting.”

And although I think I join a majority of sabermetrically inclined Mets fans when I say I'd prefer to see Mejia starting in Binghamton rather than setting up in Queens - it is undeniable that these prospects all seem to be blossoming at the same time.

From the blue-chippers who have a chance to become stars someday (Mejia, Martinez) to players who have a decent chance of being good regulars (Davis, Thole, Havens, Niese) there is opportunity. And just as importantly, there is a whole crop of players who could be useful parts and cheap - including guys like Parnell, Kunz, Takahashi, Figueroa, and Gee.

The talent is on the doorstep, and it will be interesting to see how much is there.

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[1] Ok, I didn't really look hard. Or at all.

Jonathan Mayo Is a Cool Dude

Roger is our twitter guy here at Fonzie Forever. Here is his conversation from today with Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com regarding my blog post from last night. I was baffled that Mayo could leave Fernando Martinez off a Top 50 Prospects List:

@fonzieforever Love your blog reaction. That's why I do the list. For the record, F-Mart not on b/c he's no longer a rookie.

@JonathanMayoB3 Ah, well then! Thank you.

@JonathanMayoB3 Although I must ask how FMart is no longer a rookie. He only had 91 AB's.

@fonzieforever Service time. More than 45 days...

@JonathanMayoB3 Keith Law, according to this thing said he just made rookie status http://bit.ly/a4DlsR Yay semantics!

@fonzieforever Yeah, about to tweet my mea culpa to having that wrong. OK, mea culpa time: Been saying Fernando Martinez doesn't qualify for Top 50, turns out I'm wrong. He is a rookie in 2010! Apologies!

I didn't think Fernando had used up his rookie eligibility yet. My Fernando love - vindicated.

MLB.com's Top 50 Prospect List

As the title of this post might indicate, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo released his list of the Top 50 Prospects in baseball last night. I'll save you the trouble of clicking through - there are no Mets on it. There is only one Yankee.

Here's the list:

Rank Name Team
1 Jason Heyward ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg WAS
3 Mike Stanton FLA
4 Buster Posey SF
5 Brian Matusz BAL
6 Desmond Jennings TB
7 Neftali Feliz TEX
8 Pedro Alvarez PIT
9 Justin Smoak TEX
10 Madison Bumgarner SF
11 Carlos Santana CLE
12 Alcides Escobar MIL
13 Wade Davis TB
14 Domonic Brown PHI
15 Dustin Ackley SEA
16 Brett Wallace TOR
17 Kyle Drabek TOR
18 Martin Perez TEX
19 Jesus Montero NYY
20 Jeremy Hellickson TB
21 Jarrod Parker ARI
22 Starlin Castro CHI
23 Christian Friedrich COL
24 Tim Beckham TB
25 Logan Morrison FLA
26 Brett Lawrie MIL
27 Ryan Westmoreland BOS
28 Casey Kelly BOS
29 Aaron Hicks MIN
30 Yonder Alonso CIN
31 Jason Castro HOU
32 Mike Moustakas KC
33 Wil Myers KC
34 Julio Teheran ATL
35 Michael Taylor OAK
36 Dee Gordon LAD
37 Chris Carter OAK
38 Austin Jackson DET
39 Tanner Scheppers TEX
40 Drew Storen WAS
41 Aaron Crow KC
42 Jacob Turner DET
43 Mike Montgomery KC
44 Jhoulys Chacin COL
45 Jose Iglesias BOS
46 Michael Brantley CLE
47 Phillippe Aumont PHI
48 Juan Francisco CIN
49 Ethan Martin LAD
50 Jaff Decker SD

Even More Context For Appreciating Fernando Martinez

I think my love for Fernando Martinez is well-chronicled by now.[1][2][3]

We already pointed out that his .290/.337/.540 line in AAA as a 20-year-old was downright phenomenal. We as fans already know about his tools, his quick-wrists, and his approach to the game. We saw him, almost a child, playing baseball against men in their prime - some almost twice his age.

That said, I came across another reason to love him.

Fernando's 878 OPS is impressive in any place -- but it is even more impressive in the International League. If he had accumulated enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, his OPS would have placed him ninth in the entire league. That's just outrageous.

Among Mets minor leaguers in Buffalo, he would have placed first by a mile. He was not competing with any elite players, but he easily outpaced Mike Lamb (669), Cory Sullivan (719), Nick Evans (694) and Wily Mo Pena (710), who have all played competently in the majors. The average hitter for Buffalo posted a line of only .255/.307/.365.

So who would Fernando have ranked among on the league leaderboard?

Kevin Barker, LOU, 1B
Matt LaPorta, COL, LF
Shelley Duncan, SWB, RF
Brian Myrow, IND, RF
Jordan Brown, COL, LF
Jeff Fiorentino, NOR, RF
Chris Richard, DUR, 1B
Jon Weber, DUR, LF
***Fernando Martinez, BUF, OF***
Michael Restovich CHA, LF

We can immediately eliminate some of these players as too old to be considered prospects. Kevin Barker is a 33 years old. Shelley Duncan is 29. Bryan Myrow is a 32 year old. Jeff Fiorentino is 26. Chris Richard is 35. Jon Weber is 31. Michael Restovich is 30. These are all men in their primes who are probably just not good enough to make the major leagues.

The other thing you'll notice is that ALL of these other players are either first basemen or corner outfielders - players with significantly less defensive potential than Fernando Martinez.

That leaves only Matt LaPorta and Jordan Brown as comparisons for Fernando. There has been an incredible amount of hype around those two players.

Matt LaPorta has been ranked the 27th and 28th best prospect in baseball in the last two years. He was a major piece in the CC Sabathia to Milwaukee deal, and hit 24 home runs between AAA and MLB last year. Jason Grey of ESPN said of LaPorta that "LaPorta won't hit for much average, but he will post a good on-base percentage and will have 40-homer power as he develops as a big league hitter." John Sickels graded him as a B+ prospect. Keith Law graded him as the fifth-best first base prospect in the game - between Logan Morrison and Angel Villalona, other big time prospects. He was 24 this season.

Jordan Brown kind of came out of nowhere as a prospect to post his good stats last season. He hit .336/.381/.532 -- but he is tied to first base or the corner outfield and is already 25 years old.

The bottom line is this: Fernando Martinez may have some warts. He has been injured with this-or-that at some point in each of the last three seasons. His strikeout to walk ratio wasn't superlative in AAA last year. But say what you will about all that -- his performance in AAA was phenomenal.

For Matt LaPorta, an inferior defender who is vastly older, to be hyped as he is, and for Mets fans to be so pessimistic about Fernando, is pretty ridiculous. Add in the fact that he had only a -0.3 UZR last season while playing almost 30% of his innings in center field last year, and you have yourself one hell of a well-rounded prospect.


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[1] I mentioned it a few days ago in a prospect write-up: "Fernando Martinez IS still an elite prospect."

[2] And also here: "We are watching Fernando Martinez finally tap into the immense potential we've been told about for three years."

[3] And from the same blog: "It is about time that he gets his due. He turned 21 only last month, and he's knocking on the door of the major leagues. The idea that now might be a good time to trade him... is downright silly."

Minorleagueball's Top 20 Mets Prospects for 2010

I'll admit it up front - I love reading John Sickels' blog, minorleagueball.com. I think that Sickels has always been way ahead of the curve - pragmatically combining scouting and statistics, not being too high or too low when it comes to hype, and always holding himself accountable for his missteps. I've followed his blog for a while, so I'm always excited to see him release a list or write a blurb about a Mets prospect.

Today, he released his Top 20 for the Mets Organization for 2010:

1) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B+
2) Wilmer Flores, SS, Grade B+
3) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+
4) Ike Davis, 1B, Grade B
5) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B
6) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B-
7) Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade B-
8) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B-
9) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade C+
10) Ruben Tejada, INF, Grade C+
11) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade C+
12) Eric Niesen, LHP, Grade C+
13) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+
14) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade C
15) Josh Thole, C, Grade C
16) Juan Urbina, LHP, Grade C
17) Steve Matz, LHP, Grade C
18) Brent Rustich, RHP, Grade C
19) Tobi Stoner, RHP, Grade C
20) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C

Now first of all, I think this is a great list. I think that if you were to put all the lists from all the organizations which do rankings side by side, this would be the one most different from the others. Sickels doesn't have any qualms about ranking someone in a far different slot than everyone else - and that's great. He likes Kyle Allen a lot, so he's high on the list Jefry Marte is very low on his list in comparison to others. Stoner and Gee just make the Top 20 at the end when I think other lists would have them higher based on name recognition.

But here's the most important thing:

First I want to clarify something I wrote earlier about propaganda and groupthink surrounding the Mets system. Everyone is vulnerable to the lure of crowd opinion. . .even people who regard themselves as independent observers still absorb biases, or conversely, they fight so hard against other people's biases that they go too far in the other direction. This is especially true for any organization which has a substantial media presence surrounding it and a motivated fanbase. It cuts both ways: a run-of-the-mill Grade C prospect can easily get overhyped, but at the same time a guy who is really an excellent prospect can fall victim to unrealistic expectations. Fernando Martinez, as I point out above, is absolutely still an elite prospect, yet people are disappointed in him through no fault of his own.

Fernando Martinez IS still an elite prospect. In fact, if I was making a prospect list, Fernando would be my #1 still. We wrote several entries here on Fonzie Forever about this very topic a few months back:

But I am worried that Fernando, after so many years as a stud prospect, is being looked at as an afterthought ... Fernando hit .290/.337/.540 in AAA last season at the age of 20. And this is building on a season where, at the age of 19, and after a slow April, he hit .303 in AA from May til the end of the year."

* * *

We are watching Fernando Martinez finally tap into the immense potential we've been told about for three years. If you told anyone that you had a 20 year-old in Triple-A and posting an OPS of 877, they would probably be willing to trade the farm for him. But in New York, the hype machine starts young and fizzles out quickly.

As a Mets fan, one can only hope that the flip-flop in the rankings comes as a compliment to Jennry Mejia (and Wilmer Flores, who ranked #2) and not as part of a decrease in Fernando's perceived value.

With prospects, anything can happen -- but the bottom line is that to be in AAA and doing what he did at the age of 20 is remarkable.

Compare that to the blurb on Fernando Martinez that Sickels published today in his article:

People are now too negative on him. The guy was the equivalent of a college sophomore last year. If a college sophomore got drafted and hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, people would be drooling over him. He's made significant progress refining his tools. My main concern now is health and durability, which keeps him from ranking higher.

Perhaps Mr. Sickels reads Fonzie Forever! Or, more likely, he is just a voice of reason trying to be heard above the din and clatter of impatient Met fans who want instant gratification. Sure, Fernando might get injured or not reach his potential, just like anyone else. But for now, he is an excellent prospect who is very young, and doing very well.

Keep or Trade Fernando?

Today Metsblog.com had a poll, asking readers whether they think that we should keep or trade top prospect Fernando Martinez.

I'm sorry -- where is the option for "THE IDEA OF TRADING HIM IS CRAZY!!!" because I didn't see it. I explained my feelings on Fernando earlier this month both here and here. Among other things, I pointed out that:

Fernando hit .290/.337/.540 in AAA last season at the age of 20. And this is building on a season where, at the age of 19, and after a slow April, he hit .303 in AA from May til the end of the year.

* * *

It appears the guys at Amazin' Avenue might feel the same about the drop in the rankings and the perception of Fernando. They worry that perhaps "the Mets are putting stock into his worthless sample-size major-league audition, because I find it hard to believe an injury could hurt his stock so much in a season where he had a break out."

And break out he certainly did. We are watching Fernando Martinez finally tap into the immense potential we've been told about for three years. If you told anyone that you had a 20 year-old in Triple-A and posting an OPS of 877, they would probably be willing to trade the farm for him. But in New York, the hype machine starts young and fizzles out quickly.

I also mentioned that Fernando's minor league performance compared favorably to players such as Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, David Wright, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, and many others. Metsblog acknowledged a hesitance to give up on Fernando now, pointing out:

He’s only 20 years old… i mean, at 20 years old, David Wright was batting .250 in the Single-A Sally League… this year, in his fourth professional season, Fernando hit .290 with 26 extra base hits in 45 games for Triple-A Buffalo

I'm not guaranteeing that Fernando Martinez is going to turn into Jeter, or Pujols, or whomever else. But the concept that he might be someone who would be a good candidate to trade now is nuts.

Take a look at Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects from last year. The #1 prospect in all of baseball was Matt Weiters. He had a fantastic season in 2008, before the rankings came out. He was a stud, and he posted an OPS over 1000 at both A and AA. But he was 22 years old... still two full years older than Fernando Martinez is today. If Fernando was left to grow and mature in the minors for two more years, how do you think he would do in Double-A?

To compare Fernando to another young outfielder, Cameron Maybin was the #8 prospect in the entire game. In 2008, he had just come off a season where he hit .277/.375/.456 in AA as a 21 year old. One year OLDER than Fernando, at one level LOWER than Fernando, and posted statistics WORSE than Fernando.

Colby Rasmus, another outfielder, was ranked #3 in all of baseball. He was coming off a season where he hit a paltry .251/.346/.396 in AAA as a 21 year old. People were giving him credit because of his tools and because he was dealing with an apparent injury -- but those stats are NOT good. People were still raving over his previous year, where he hit .275/.381/.551 in AA as a 20 year old. Fantastic stats to be sure, and the tools to match, but comparable to Fernando and at an entire level lower.

These are not meant to be direct comparisons or predictions[1]. They are simply meant to point out the absolute ridiculous nature in which Fernando Martinez's future is being discussed. Fernando isn't the next coming of Mickey Mantle -- but he compares favorably to players who were given incredible hype as prospects.

It is about time that he gets his due. He turned 21 only last month, and he's knocking on the door of the major leagues. The idea that now might be a good time to trade him, or that he could be used as a chip to acquire someone like Curtis Granderson[2], is downright silly.

-----
[1] Weiters was a catcher. Rasmus is regarded as one of the more athletically gifted prospects in the game. Maybin is also an excellent athlete, and plays centerfield.

These comparisons are not direct, nor does simply looking at numbers tell you the entire story. Some scouts don't like Fernando's tools or is projection. They worry that he will not be so fast, and he'll have to hit better to justify a high ranking. Well to that I say -- he has.

The point is that those three were SO highly regarded as to be considered 3 of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. They were not just good or interesting prospects -- they were the elite.

Fernando, despite performing similarly or better and at a younger age, will probably be ranked somewhere between 25 and 35 on this year's list of top prospects. Why?


[2] I can't find stats for Curtis Granderson was 20, but when he was 21 he was in Low-A ball. He hit .286/.365/.458. He didn't truly break out as a prospect until he was 22, when he hit .303/.407/.515 in AA.