Marginal Value and Why I Don't Care if the Mets Bring Back Reyes

Quickly, who has been the most valuable Met this year?

Has it been Jose Reyes and his league-leading .336 batting average? Did Carlos Beltran have that distinction while he was here? Has David Wright's surge since coming back put him into the discussion?

No, no, and no -- if you are talking money, that is.

When you take into account the salary they are earning, the most valuable Met this season has been none other than Daniel Murphy. No, he does not have the highest WAR of any Met this year -- that distinction goes to Reyes -- but he has provided the most value at the least cost. That makes him the most valuable.

Below is a table with a majority of the Mets regulars, sorted from the highest WAR per dollar to lowest:


[I really hope you can read that.  I will provide the text version of that chart at the bottom of the post.]

Anybody with access to baseball-reference or fangraphs or who watches the game can tell you to a reasonable degree of certainty who is the most valuable player on the field.  But baseball is a business -- just like the other major sports -- and even though you and I might bleed blue-and-orange and think flags fly forever, for those who make the decisions it all comes down to money.  It's not that winning is irrelevant -- but winning almost always depends on having a strong financial position from which you can make moves in the future.

There is a very good (and very mathematically heavy and boring) article over at Baseball Prospectus which takes a look at the true costs and benefits to signing free agents.  In it, the author discusses the pricing of free agents (he calls it "the marginal cost of acquiring a player's contribution on the free-agent market") while also factoring in things such as the length of the deal (ex: a player gives up dollars in the first year for a guarantee of a longer contract at a lower average annual value) and the draft picks lost as compensation.  He provides a great example (I have edited out most of the math):

Which brings us to this next example, where the Tigers surrendered the 19^th pick in the 2010 draft to sign Jose Valverde to a two-year deal worth $14 million, which would be worth $22 million if the Tigers exercise a 2012 club option. Ignoring the draft-pick compensation, Valverde’s contract would look pretty good ... he would be worth $18.2 million if you ignore the draft picks.  However, the 19^th pick would ... 3.3 wins over the first six years, which ... is $10.5 million in foregone wins.

If you go to fangraphs, you'll see that at the bottom of each page they have a section for each player entitled "value."  In that section, there is listed the players salary, right next to a column which says "dollars."  The dollars column roughly amounts to how much a player providing that much value would cost on the free agent market.  Jose Reyes, for example, has posted 5.3 WAR so far this season, while the market in baseball generally values 5.3 WAR at a price of $23.9 million dollars.  Daniel Murphy, on the other hand, has provided 3.2 WAR which is valued at $14.3 million dollars.

Jose has been better, but Murphy has provided more bang for his buck.

So herein lies the problem:  once Jose Reyes - or any player - becomes eligible to test the free agent market, they are going to find someone to pay them what they are worth.  Or as is often the case, more than they are worth.  At that point, unless there is some kind of hometown discount being provided, that player is no more or less useful to your team than any other.  In fact, he may be LESS useful to your team specifically because you owned him to begin with -- by not allowing him to leave, you fail to get draft pick compensation that you would otherwise have.

For example, if the Mets were confronted with the ability to sign Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez, as free agents this winter, my only preference would become who would provide the better DEAL for our team.  I love Reyes, he is my favorite player.  But I'd rather see my team win without Reyes than lose with him.[1]

Back in 2005, when the Mets were on the precipice of their ill-fated dynasty, the world belonged to them.  In David Wright and Jose Reyes, the Mets had lucked into two all-star position players at almost exactly the same time.  Between 2006 and 2008, Reyes posted 6.1, 5.8, and 6.4 WAR.  In the same time span, Wright posted 5.2, 8.9, and 7.1 WAR.  All of those were All-Star campaigns, and in the case of Wright, what had a good argument as an MVP season.
But why did the Mets win so many games from 2006-2008?  It wasn't just because they had Wright and Reyes -- they still have Wright and Reyes.  It was because in 2006, Wright and Reyes made a COMBINED salary of less than a million dollars.  In 2007, they earned around $4.5 million dollars.  In 2008, they raked in less than ten million dollars.  As a whole, they earned approximately $15 million dollars while providing the Mets with value equivalent to what they would have to pay a free agent approximately $163 million dollars for.  That's $150 million dollars of profit.

So what did the Mets do when they had two, young, cost-controlled mega-stars?  They used the extra money that they had to PAY free agents.  They brought in Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado, and Billy Wagner and so many others.  And for that stretch of time, the Mets were very, very good.  But when the Mets failed to win it all, it wasn't just a sadness that could be remedied next year -- it was the end of an era.  The window was, and remains, closed, for the Wright-Reyes Mets to be anything special.

Take an example of another very good team, last year's Texas Rangers.  They knew that they had a good, cheap nucleus of talent in Josh Hamilton ($5.5M), Ian Kinsler ($4.2M), Nelson Cruz ($440K), and others.  They could afford to pay free agent money to players that they thought would push them over the top -- like Vladimir Guerrero.

Even big market teams like the Red Sox cannot win without cost-controlled, home grown stars.  The Red Sox have players like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard and Jon Lester under cost control -- so they could trade for Adrian Gonzalez and give him a lucrative contract extension, and they could pick up David Ortiz' contract option, and they could afford to make moves even with John Lackey's contract burdening them.

As for us, with Reyes and Wright reaching the point in their careers where they need to be paid what they are worth, it doesn't really matter if they are Mets or not-- outside of our weak, silly, baseball-fan hearts.  They will still be good players, but they will be no better for us than any other roll of the dice that we make on the free agent market.  Can a team built around a Wright and Reyes who are being paid market value still win?  Of course they can.  But the deck is no longer stacked in our favor.

For the next few years, the Mets are going to have to stand by and watch young, practically free superstars like Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Domonic Brown, Bryce Harper, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Antonio Bastardo, Julio Teheran, Jonny Venters and a host of others provide All-Star if not superstar value for our rivals.  The question is -- do the Mets have reinforcements?  Can the Mets reload?

All of this, finally, brings us back to the table that we posted at the beginning of this article.  Although the Mets don't have any surefire stud prospects waiting in the wings to be our next Wright or Reyes, the Mets certainly do have a lot of cheap players who can provide value in 2012 and beyond. You don't have to be a stats nerd or sabermatrician to understand that having cheap players who can step into roles on a winning club has value.  You just may be surprised to learn how much.

Another way of looking at the above table is to look at the value provided beyond the salary they were paid.[2]  Sorting this way, Murphy is again the most valuable Met.  In third, however, is Jose Reyes, who has provided over $11 million in surplus value despite earning $11 million on this year's contract.  All in all, the Mets have 12 players who have provided more than $2 million in surplus value to the team, and even better, all of whom (except Chris Capuano and Reyes) remain under team control next year.

Add to these names (Murphy, Niese, Tejada, Davis, Dickey, Turner, Duda, Thole, Pagan, Parnell) the list of players we discussed last week in our Organization Report, and you've got yourself an excellent core of players to build around.

Would I like the Mets to resign Reyes?  Absolutely.  Would the Mets be a better team on the field for doing so?  Absolutely -- there is no player out there who can replace the value of a stud, in his prime, All-Star shortstop.  Will it make the Mets better suited financially in the future to compete with the other teams in the NL East?  Hard to say.

-----------------
[1]
The fangraphs values, and the generally accepted practice of attaching a dollar value to the WAR provided by a free agent, are misleading in that relative to the entire pool of players playing major league baseball, all free agents are overpaid.  As the salaries for players with less major league service time are strictly fixed by the rules and by arbitration, they can only wait for their free agent payday. 


[2]
The Top 12 Mets in providing value beyond their salary:

Value Beyond Salary WAR per $ IF Murphy $13,562,000.00 7.58 SP Niese $11,784,000.00 6.19 IF Reyes $11,724,000.00 0.47 IF Tejada $5,718,000.00 3.50 IF Davis $5,686,000.00 3.24 SP Dickey $5,179,000.00 0.76 SP Capuano $5,055,000.00 1.00 IF Turner $3,970,000.00 2.50 OF Duda $3,956,000.00 2.42 IF Thole $3,513,000.00 2.14 OF Pagan $2,618,000.00 0.40 RP Parnell $2,188,500.00 1.38

So far so good...

Game 3: Mets 9 Marlins 2
Dickey vs Vazquez

I'm not gonna give a recap of this game but let's instead take a look at what we've learned about Terry Collins' 2011 Mets before they head on over for some Philly Cheesesteaks:

K-Rod may be going to anger management but he's still rocking the goggles and he's still having an extreme difficult time saving games. Okay it was just one game so far but he looked awful against Florida. But again it was one game, and even that Mariano Rivera messes up from time to time so I'm not turning on Frankie just yet.

Isaac Benjamin Davis got off to a rocky start with a few hiccups at first base which was and is shocking since he was the man last year that would make incredible plays diving into the stands. But since that first not so hot game he appears to have his hitting and defensive prowess back. He definitely has the potential to hit 20 homers (perhaps 30), bat .300 and rack up 100 ribeye steaks.

RA Dickey probably is our ace with Johan on the DL. No matter how many times he gets into trouble, he's the one Metsies pitcher I can watch without half covering my eyes when the bases are loaded. He has no trouble keeping his cool and he gets out of jams. Plus his post game locker room interviews are always worth watching. This man is brilliant and it's always just nice to hear his take on a game.

Beltran is hitting. That is what counts. Plus he's Duda's Yoda. According to Burkhardt, Carlos keeps an eye on Lucas and gives him advice to improve his hitting. They also have had dinner dates!

Eamus or Murphy at second?! The biggest fear with Daniel Murphy at second is the fact that he won't be able to turn double plays. He really didn't get a chance to do that yet during his one start but he looked absolutely fine at second. Eamus got his first hit in game 2 and he's looked pretty great defensively. It's a tough call.

Reyes and Pagan are still fast as can be and defensive badasses.

David Wright is looking like pre-getting hit in the head Davey. He's hitting, okay his defense hasn't been perfect but his swing is looking marvelous. I am thinking this could be a season where Wright doesn't strike out in consecutive games, gasp.

Willie Harris is proving to be a great pickup. So far he's pinch hit successfully, he's homered, he's played great defense and he's proven he can actually help the Mets and not just rob them of victories like he did as a National.

Jonathan Niese has had the tendency in the past to pitch great but to start out a little rusty. He does give up first inning runs but he also can then bounce back and give the Mets 6 scoreless innings.

Big Pelf looks like he is just picking up where he left off last season and that's no good. If he can get himself centered and back into his early 2010 form we really could have a pretty good pitching staff that could give a lot of teams trouble.

The Mets as a team have proven so far that just like last year they can fight back. They don't give up and that's great to see. Even when K-Rod blew the save game 2 they bounced right back in that top of the 10th and regained the lead. Does that mean we might see another 20 inning game, perhaps?!

Run support has been an issue with the Metsies. So many games last year we saw great pitching outings but the squad couldn't hit. Dickey for some reason was the one pitcher who seemed to always get run support and that has continued thus far.

In general Florida just kicks the Mets asses. Last year it was no picnic playing the fish so taking a series on the road from them is a great start.

On the road the Mets just couldn't win and they already have one road series under their belts so that's pretty neat and promising.

SNY still is all about the Geico and Fiberama commercials....

Keith hasn't fallen asleep or made that many funny comments yet but he has said "Cheese" so I think there's no reason to fear he's lost his unpredictable/very entertaining booth mojo. Just for now he seems very professional and that's great but we need some random tangents about authors or musicians or Sag Harbor just in case this season gets really ugly.

I know we don't have big expectations for the Metsies but you know what maybe they'll surprise us. A 2-1 start is not that shabby at all and I guess the real test is coming up. Philadelphia and that ridiculous pitching staff will be quite hard to defeat but you know what anything is possible in the world of sports. So for now let's just take it game by game and hope Collins' Metsies surprise us this year!

Same old drama mama K-Rod...but the Mets are still triumphant!

Game 2: Mets6 Marlins4 (10 innings)
Niese vs Nolasco

Gary had a major hard on for the Florida sunset during this game..."Nice to see Niese settling in" was a phrase uttered by the booth quite often and K-Rod proved once again some things sadly never change. But let's not dwell on Frankie, let's get to the recap of the Metsies first victorino of the season!

Here we go! 123 top of the first for Nolasco. Sheesh who does Nolasco think he is, Josh Johnson? He needs to save this impersonation for the Phillies and the Braves. Yep.

To the bottom of the 1st, Niese right from the start was in trouble and bam before we could see 3434343 Fiberama commercials (because oh SNY is relentless with those buggers) 2 were in scoring position with 1 out for Gaby Sanchez. Sanchez was walked and the bases were loaded for Morrison, he singled and Infante and Ramirez scored. Yet again the Marlins got out to an early lead, 2-0 fish. Now the new Mets killer John Buck was up with men on 1st and 2nd and still just 1 out and this time he was human! Buck hit a fly ball to right way in foul territory and Beltran grabbed it! Wahoo! Then Donnie Murphy made the final out, phew.

Beltran led off the top of the 2nd by striking out. Terrible. Next up was Isaac Benjamin Davis! And Ike got an opposite field double, his first hit in 2011! Wahoo! Duda then flew out to left, gosh it's always zipadeeDUDA with Lucas. Now it was up to Eamus to get Ike home and put a run on the board and he struck out and stranded that awesomely bearded Davis on 2nd.

123 bottom of the 2nd for Niese! I love these Niese of cake innings!

Josh Thole singled to lead off the top of the 3rd! That was Joshy's first hit of the season, woot woot! Then Burkhardt does a segment on MLB-ers who cook and it turns out Johan Santana has very impressive skills with a knife and Davey Wright loves apple pie. I know the things Kevin teaches us sometimes are vital for our sports loving existence. Talk about hard hitting news! Oh and during this "Diamond Dishes" segment Niese sac bunted to move Josh on over to 2nd so maybe Reyes could like get an RBI. And Reyes hit a beauty to center but Coghlan was able to make the catch, bollocks. Now Thole was at 3rd with two outs for Crazy Horse Pagan. I really want to get to say it's back back back it's Pa-GONE a lot this season but sadly this was not one of those times for me to get to do that. It was a long fly ball but not long enough. Fly outs to right suck! Inning over.

123 bottom of the 3rd for Niese and that also meant he had retired 8 in a row!


In the top of the 4th Wright led off with a bombarino! Ron remarked "That was some serious pop Keith" and oh it was and now it was just a one run ballgame. 2-1! Then it looked like Beltran was homering too but nope it was a fakeout. And then that Coghlan made a great play in center to take a base hit away from Ike. So now it was 2 outs and nobody on for Mr. Duda and he duh is not winning and struck out.

After a slew of Geico commercials we were back for the bottom of the 4th and it was another 123 inning for Niese!

Eamus led off the top of the 5th with his first big league hit, wahoo! Other than that this was a pointless half of an inning.

Niese picked up his first K of the night in the bottom of the 5th or as Keith referred to it "He just ate up Coghlan." With 2 outs and a man on 2nd Infante grounded a ball hard to Davey, Wright bobbled it and he had no play to make (first error of the Metsies season) and men were now on first and third for Ramirez ugh. But phew danger averted and Hanley grounded out to Eamus!

In the top of the 6th Beltran got a 2 out single and it was time for some Ike magic! And Ike tied the game with a double! 2-2! Davis' bat and beard are real and spectacular but blah blah then Duda go figures did the whole grounding out to end the inning thang. He really likes to leave Ike stranded on 2nd. Not cool Duda.

"He's throwing inside aggressively, I love it" said the Hernandez. Niese struck out John Buck who is now all of a sudden pretending he can't hit to end the inning and that meant a 123 bottom of the 6th for Niese!

In the top of the 7th Thole hit a 1 out single but Bonifacio made a Frenchy type play and he caught Thole off the bag and Josh was out, that hit was wasted and then Niese struck out to end the inning.

In the bottom of the 7th the go ahead run was on 2nd with 1 out for Helms and Jon struck him out! Then it was time for Coghlan with the pinch runner Cousins (Donnie Murphy left the game) still at 2nd and he grounded out and the inning was over! Only 86 pitches thrown!

In the top of the 8th Reyes grounded out and he's now 0-8 this season. Then Bonifacio had to go and show off the glove again (now at 3rd) to make a great defensive play that took an infield hit away from Crazy Horse Angel Pagan. So with 2 outs and nobody on it was Wright's turn to maybe homer again but nah he just singled and that was mighty fine. But ugh Beltran grounded out and the inning was over.

Bottom of the 8th Bobby P time! 123 inning for Parnell including two K's!

Could the hero be Josh Thole?! Thole rbi singled in the top of the 9th to give the Metsies a 3-2 lead!

And then it was K-Rod time, his first pitch of the year was a strike! He even struck out Logan Morrison for out numero uno but of course the shit hit the fan and K-Rod was up to his old I like to blow saves tricks. This part was very upsetting for me so I'm just gonna say the Marlins tied the ballgame 3-3 and somehow K-Rod didn't give up any more runs and we were headed to extra innings.

In the top of the 10th Reyes and Pagan both got on base with back to back singles (Pagan successful bunt single). Then David Wright did it again and he singled, Reyes scored and the Mets regained the lead 4-3 and phew they weren't done! Fast forward to 1st and 3rd 2 outs for Willie Harris and oh Harris is making us fans very happy (and oh we deserve that after all the Mets killing he did last season) and he doubled and the Mets had a 6-3 lead going into the bottom of the 10th!

K-Rod was back to pitch again, I'm just playing, it was Blaine Boyer and he wasn't perfect at all but the Mets won so that's what counts! The Mets are 1-1 and the one and only RA Dickey takes the mound tomorrow! I can't wait. Last year I just looked forward to those Dickey starts.

So to tomorrow and some knuckleball fun!

The Mets and the Success Cycle

When you run a baseball team, the first thing that you should do (and I doubt the Mets have done this in a while) is to take a look at where you are on the success cycle. I haven't been able to find much reference online to this concept as it relates to baseball, but it's an enormously important concept in business. In business, however, it is referred to as the life cycle.

In business, products and even companies as a whole participate in some general permutation of this cycle. A business or product will debut, will grow, and will hit their initial peak. From that point, they can adapt and make changes which will bring them to a new, higher plateau, or they can be allowed to decline until they no longer exist. Where you are on that cycle determines what kinds of decisions you will make - whether to invest in R&D, whether to make capital improvements, etc.

In baseball, however, all 30 teams exist and will continue to exist regardless of their success or failure. One look at the Pirates or Royals will assure you that no matter how bad you are and for how long, you won't go out of business (contraction talk aside). What does remain true, however, is the fact that teams are better or worse equipped to "make a run" at the playoffs or to "rebuild" depending on factors as plentiful as the ages of their star players, the condition of their facilities, changes in ownership, changes in the economy of their surrounding area, and the relative strength or weakness of their farm system.

As far as the success cycle and baseball goes, it appears the most prominent article on it was written years ago by Jonah Keri over at Baseball Prospectus. Although he never explicitly defines the success cycle, he takes an in-depth look at the 2002 Pittsburgh Pirates and discusses the importance of determining your place on it:

The cycle is a baseball continuum on which every team resides. To measure a team's place in the cycle, assess its talent in the majors and minors. Can the players in the organization, mixed with a few trade acquisitions and free agents the team could reasonably sign, yield a competitive team? More precisely, can the team expect to compete while its current core of major-league players remain productive and under contract?

Oops He, He, He And He Did It Again...

So there are 4 "Oops he did it again" moments by our beloved Metsies and well one Metsies announcer we all know I'm very fond of that I have not reported on. This is just wrong. So now I'll report them because oh they are good. Here we go!

1. David Wright going into yesterday's game had struck out 156 times. No Metsie had ever struck out more times than that. Dave Kingman and Tommy Agee had struck out 156 times as well. Them and now Wright were the current Metsies strike out leaders. But David doesn't like to be tied. He wanted to own the record! Yesterday during his 4th at bat of the night, after hitting a homer in his previous at bat Wright struck out. This bottom of the 8th striking out business has now earned him sole top honors. 157 K's! He now holds the club record for striking out in a season. And I mean he can so make this record even harder to beat for himself and all other future Metsies. I'm gonna make a prediction. Wright will have struck out 162 times by the end of this season. Anyone else care to make a prediction?

2. It was too good to be true. Ugh. After the 5th inning Beltran left the game with what he said was "discomfort" in his right knee. Today he's undergoing an MRI at the Hospital For Special Surgery.

3. Pedro Feliciano made his 89th appearance last night. That's a new record for Perpetual Pedro!

4. Keith Hernandez made today's NY Post's Page Six. This is the section that is all gossipy and quite nauseating. Here's what was said about him,

"Keith Hernandez is playing the field again. The former Mets baseman and current broadcaster filed for divorce from Kai Thompson last spring after five years of marriage. He was at Bottega Del Vino on East 59th the other night with a 'gorgeous Italian girl with long, dark hair,' said a witness. 'They were totally making out. He was all over her.' Hernandez was wed once before. On the day his divorce became final, legend has it he hit two home runs, a triple and a double, and said, 'I should get a divorce every day. I'd be broke, but I'd be in the Hall Of Fame.'"
Oh Keith and his Casanova ways...

Ok those are all the "Oops he did it again" moments...for now.

Today on the mound, Niese will be pitching game 1 and then it's Dickey for game numero dos. Let's get this winning streak to 5 by tonight!

And seriously is anyone else throwing up a little bit in their mouth from looking at either the front and back pages of both the Daily News and the NY Post? Damn those Yankees.

The David Wright Lincoln MKS Blooper Reels!

So after last night's delightful Metsies victory I was inspired this morning to film my version of the David Wright "The game has officially been changed" Lincoln MKS commercial that airs all the time on SNY during the Mets games. Irving is playing the role of David Wright and well just watch and see the madness ensue! Enjoy!

There Was No Luck Of The Irish For The Metsies On Green Cap Night...

Green Cap Night!
Game 2: Phillies 4 Mets 0
Halladay vs Misch

So again I decided to film this recap. I've been lazy lately and well typing up a game, especially a losing effort by the Mets is not something I just have had oomph to go and do. Also I'm going to Spain later today so really that's been on my mind. But I still felt I had to go out with a bang before leaving the country and deserting my fellow Metsies fans. So I hope I succeed in my attempts to leave you folks wanting more. I return from Espana on August 22nd so by then hopefully the Mets will have clobbered the Astros and the Pirates. It could happen. Probably not but I'll stay optimistic it will.

But back to yesterday's game. In this installment of my home-made films I'm back with my 87 year old buddy Irving and we dish about Misch's 2010 debut as a Metsie, K-Rod's apology, David Wright's bobbles and bungles and well Irving gets distracted a lot. He really does. Just take a look and ENJOY!


Big Pelf vs Kyle Kendrick tonight on ESPN! Could the Metsies somehow take this rubber game and well give Pelf ample run support!!??? And will I be able to find any scores for Mets games while in Spain!? Sheesh I better be able to. Withdrawal from the Mets is going to be some feat for me, oh it is!

Have a great night and a fabulous week folks! Until we meet again on the blogosphere...

"The Only Thing K-Rod Will Be Closing Today Is A Jail Cell Door"--My Dad

So I figured I'd switch things up today and as David Wright would say as he does every time he opens the window of his Lincoln MKS, "The Game has officially been changed." Yep I'm changing my format of my recaps just for today. I couldn't type up a recap about this horrible no good very bad game last night but I decided I would make some videos today. About a couple days ago I started a web series called "Two Octogenarians At The Park." It stars two octogenarians, my buddies Irving and Joe and they randomly zing each other. Irving is 87 and he is possibly the coolest person on the planet and Joe is 80 and he wears super high socks. I always hang out with these guys after my morning runs at the park. IN the videos I've posted me and my buddy Irving (there's no Joe in these videos) dish about last night's game and well the whole K-Rod getting arrested business. I hope this is a special treat for you folks. I hope my voice doesn't annoy you guys too much! Enjoy! And my Dad is in the first video but he didn't want to be on camera so you will just hear his voice from time to time. Here we go! Could Gary, Keith and Ron have some competition, hmmmmmmm??!!

Click on Part Deux to hear the rest!

Ownership v. Management and the #averagejob

Okay Will Davidian, I'll take the bait.

In a post yesterday afternoon, I lambasted the Mets for the terrible situation they have put us in by having $110 million committed to only seven players (or depending on your source, around $112 million to eight). I criticized them for lacking a plan. And finally, I questioned whether the Mets will ever win with the current ownership.

Then, and in a footnote mind you, I mentioned that I thought that Minaya and Manuel are "doing at least an average job." Erm. Well, Mr. Davidian then spent the night poking fun at the phrase via twitter. Since I'm an old fart or something, I needed to get this news from Roger via email:

Nick Evans started Game 162 of 2008. He started three games in September/October of 2009. #averagejob #15org

The manager called a player soft after he suffered a concussion breaking up a double play. #averagejob #15org

Elmer Dessens is getting paid $1M to be terrible. Thanks Omar? @FonzieForever

Mets lost two game on a West Coast trip with Oliver Perez on the mound. K-Rod was unused in either game. #averagejob #15org

Okay, har har, well played. And don't get me wrong - I actually do find these kinds of things amusing. I find it interesting that Mets fans have such a unique community here among the blogs/twitter, etc... in fact, unique not only in terms of media used, but also by team. Mets fans dominate talk radio here in the city, and it seems that they occupy a unique space here on the internet as well -- it is our curse.

That said, I am going to try and defend the statement. There are three points:

1. When I say average, I do not mean the strict arithmetic mean. I don't think anyone does. If I had said "okay" or "decent" the statement would have provided way less material... but I said average.

2. They may well have been average, even by that definition. Could Omar and Jerry have been the 15th best team? I think you could make the argument. Have you watched other teams?

Managers for different clubs make absolutely terrible moves all the time. Just watch out of town games - I promise you, your hatred for Manuel will decrease immediately. In addition, there has been more ink spilled on the uselessness of managers tactical decisions than I feel comfortable talking about. It's just not a worthwhile topic of conversation unless you're at an absolute extreme - and I like that this team likes to play for Jerry.

The job done by Omar Minaya looks even rosier by comparison. Every team is saddled with bad contracts, sometimes several. Take a look at this list by Sky Andrecheck in Sports Illustrated from December of 2009: Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Barry Zito, Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, Oliver Perez, Gary Matthews Jr. ($23 million owed by Angels), Aaron Rowand, Juan Pierre, Milton Bradley.

Big League Stew did a similar list, but this time took the ten worst contracts of the decade. You will see not a single Met contract on that list. Add familiar names like Chan Ho Park and Mike Hampton, and you'll think the Castillo deal meaningless by comparison.

Heck, Minaya barely makes MLB Trade Rumors' list of 10 Worst Free Agent Signings of this past offseason. That list includes the likes of Matt Holliday, Jason Kendall, Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa, etc. Alex Cora cracks the list at #10, but at $2 million, who cares?

I say this while keeping as objective as possible. Only a casual perusal of the Fonzie archives from this past offseason will show my absolute frustration with the team's moves. But I'm realistic -- Omar has been okay, minus one fatal flaw.

3. The lack of a plan and forced bad free agent signings, I suspect, originate from Mets ownership. This is as close to speculation as you'll probably ever find on this site, but it's a feeling that I just can't shake. Many have complained that the Mets moves over the last two years have been the direct result of the Wilpons' losses in the Madoff scandal, and evidence of that fact is getting harder and harder to refute.

I resisted this insinuation -- always believing that the Mets would sustain themselves through ticket sales and the like -- but the bottom line is that Omar wasn't able to make any kind of move in June when the Mets were in it, and he made one huge boneheaded signing in the offseason, in December when season ticket sales were flagging. A blog entry over at forbes.com does a good job of summarizing the argument for me:

Baseball’s worst owner? Always tough to say, given how subjective the arguments can be. But the Mets’ Fred Wilpon is certainly making a good run at it.

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Wilpon’s general manager, Omar Minaya, makes the big splash every winter (Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Frankie Rodriguez, and now Jason Bay) only to find disappointment by the following October. Minaya’s predecessor, Steve Phillips, did the same thing, trying to transition an aging 2000 World Series team on the fly by picking up the washed up Mo Vaughan, Roberto Alomar and Pedro Astacio. Result: four straight seasons finishing third or lower. Both Phillips and Minaya have taken a lot of heat from local fans and press. But who did each work for? Wilpon, under whom the Mets are 639-655 since he wrested full control from former partner Nelson Doubleday in 2002.

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But that one step back that’s usually required to move two steps forward is one that Wilpon has never been willing to take. The Mets have become a franchise with a handful of stars supported by a soft underbelly...

One look at the Mets moves from the last couple of years shows that the Mets are willing to make one big addition as the last year's big addition comes off the books. They get to maintain the status quo in terms of payroll while being able to tout a new addition to the team.

Welcome to the team, Carlos Beltran? No mention of the goodbye to Mike Piazza.
Nice to see you, Francisco Rodriguez? You'll be replacing Billy Wagner.
Thank you for joining us, Jason Bay! You'll be batting fifth, because we're parting ways with Carlos Delgado.

There is no way this doesn't come from the ownership. There is no way that you go out and sign Jason Bay to a mega-contract yet choose not to part with a young prospect at the deadline for help for the playoff push if you are "going for it". For that matter, there is no way you look at the team as it was constituted last offseason and truly believe that Jason Bay is going to make the difference on the field. And what of the things that Minaya can control? Excellent drafts and a plentiful farm system. R.A. Dickey. Hisanori Takahashi. Trading for Santana.

The problem is that the Mets exist in perpetual limbo. They had a good run from 2006-2008, but so much of that was just luck -- we managed to develop two of the best players in the league, and two players who may end up as the two best Mets hitters of all time, at the exact same time. They supplemented a core of free agent stars.

Now, David Wright and Jose Reyes are becoming expensive. Jason Bay's contract is back loaded. The window of opportunity to capitalize on their youth is passed, and Johan Santana isn't getting any younger.

I'm not saying the Mets can never win, I'm just saying that they can't win so long as the current ownership continues to require Minaya to make a ticket-selling "splash" each offseason and then ties his hands otherwise. In light of all this, I think Minaya has been doing an average job.-

Wright With Two Strikes

A great, great article by ESPN New York. Well-written, and even more well-researched. I'll let it speak for itself:

In his last 17 plate appearances that have gone to two strikes, Wright has struck out 13 times. He's grounded out weakly twice. He's walked twice.

That's a totally different kind of Wright than the one we've seen previously.

We've written in our various forums about Wright's struggles, how he's being pitched to differently (fastballs in, offspeed away) since he was hit in the head with, what we might remind you, was an 0-2 fastball. A two-strike pitch...one that was not in the strike zone.

Our colleague in Stats and Info, Katie Sharp, updated something we'd looked at in various forms previously. Since returning on Sept. 1, 2009, Wright is 0-for-46 against two-strike pitches that are not in the strike zone.

Most hitters don't get hits against two-strike pitches out of the strike zone, but Wright had eight in 2009 prior to being hit in the head. Eight hits. It was something he could do then, that he can't do now.

David Wright's Ever-Increasing Swings-and-Misses

Interesting little thought-provoker on Metsblog today that I wanted to touch on. Perhaps in response to my post from yesterday, Metsblog published a little thoughtful blurb about D-Wright's struggles. In pertinent part, it said:

Yes, he is striking out WAY too much. But, if he puts the ball in play, it tends to fall for a hit – especially against left-handed pitching, and at the same rate from seasons past. I mean, despite all the criticism, the kid is batting .293 and already has nearly as many home runs as he had all of last season.

So yes, good. I agree wholeheartedly. Later on, however, he mentions kind of off-handedly something pretty interesting:

The difference is the swing and misses, which could be because he is getting more pitches outside of the strike zone – evident by his increase in walks, as Ted Berg pointed out to me on Instant Messenger.

Makes sense! The theory jives with what has been happening in real life. However, it takes only a two minute glance at fangraphs to confirm and expand on that little nugget of observation.

This year David Wright is 1) swinging at more pitches out of the zone, 2) swinging at less pitches in the zone, 3) getting less pitches in the strike zone 4) and making less contact on ALL of them. That's.... not good.

So yes, he's getting more pitches out of the zone. In fact, his zone% has decreased from 48.8% to 43.5% (his career rate is over half). But that's not the whole story. His swing and miss percentage has gone from last year's 8.4% and career mark of around 7% to an epic 11.1% this year. He's making worse contact on each and every kind of pitch he is thrown -- and the numbers are at by far the worst rates of his career.

This matches the eye test. He's getting less strikes, he's swinging at more stuff, and he's missing more often. He's missed what seems like dozens of fat fastballs in the strike zone over the last week -- perhaps a side effect of expanding his zone? Who really knows? But Metsblog provided me a little food for thought, and I think it deserved expanding on. David Wright is our best player and these numbers should be cause for concern for everyone, even if he is going well so far this year.

David Wright is Not Unusually Streaky

For some reason, over the last few years Matt Cerrone of the wonderful Metsblog.com has been convinced that David Wright is an unusually streaky hitter. The idea seemed to start maybe in late 2008, and blossomed into a mini-obsession in 2009. This year, it continues.

Today, he posted a blog entitled David Wright's 9 to 10 Game Swings where he looked at Wright's season in those little chunks. Here you go:

In his first 10 games of the season, Wright hit .290 and struck out 20 percent of the time...In the following nine games he hit just .156 and struck out nearly 40 percent of the time...Then, he returned to form, hitting .400 with four HR in his next nine games while playing at home, and in Philadelphia and Cincinnati, during which he struck out 25 percent of the time.

Now, he’s back to slumping, going 3 for his last 18 plate appearances, in his last four games, during which he’s struck out in almost half of his at bats.
In other words, 10 good games, nine bad games, nine good games, now four bad games.

…i try not too pay too much attention to batting average during these streaks, because the ball has a tendency to drop where it wants to drop, but it’s hard to argue his rhythm… it’s like he sees the ball well for only a week or so, and then he’s out of whack, then he’s locked in, then he’s out of whack, because the strike outs swing back and forth as well

I like Matt, but sometimes I wonder if he (or any of the other fans who make up the majority of the Mets fan base) watch other teams play. EVERY player is streaky. EVERY team does well, then sputters, then hits in the clutch, then doesn't.

Because I am a little short on time, here is just one quick example. For comparison's sake, I am going to pick the best hitter on the planet, Albert Pujols. I did not check the numbers before I ran them, but I am confident he'll have streaks. Here you go.

For the first nine games, Pujols hit .400/.486/.886.

Then for the next eight games, he hit .147/.275/.294.

But wait! In the next seven games, he hit .520/.600/.800!

But now he looks lost, hitting .222/.364/.296 in his last seven games.

That is baseball. Pujols is "The Machine" but he goes through swings like anyone else. It's luck, it's health, it's rhythm, it's weather, it's opposing pitching, it's being home or away.

Let's put this issue to bed. David Wright is a great, world-class hitter. He's striking out too much right now but he'll be fine. He's hitting .277/.403/.527 right now with 7 home runs. Let's leave him alone (for now).

David Wright Loses His Cool

Now THIS is something you don't see every day. In the ninth inning of today's game, with Jason Bay on second base and having already struck out three times on the day, David Wright took a pitch for a called strike three and promptly LOST IT. Here's the video of the San Francisco broadcast, where you can more clearly hear what he's saying to the umpire:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7932469&topic_id=8879100&query=%26game_pk%3D264274

(There doesn't appear to be a way to embed video from MLB.com sites, sorry)

I can see why he was angry - it was clearly a ball. Of course, with two strikes you really ought to be protecting the plate.

In any event, it's interesting and it's worth watching. It sucks that D-Wright is struggling right now, but he's a real competitor and he's going to come out of it sooner rather than later.

Opening Daydream

In this writer's humble opinion, baseball is the greatest game ever invented. I could not imagine any other competition matching its blend of power and finesse, of strategy, of dull repetition somehow delivered in short explosive bursts.

It is beautiful in its symmetry (three outs per side per inning, every infield identical) and in its asymmetry (nine random innings, and each outfield unique).

It is beautiful in its democracy - every player must bat when it is his turn to bat. There is no feeding the ball to Kobe every time. You have no control over who the ball gets hit to. It is incredible that baseball will make heroes out of Endy Chavez, and DeWayne Wise, and Aaron Boone just as often as it will of Albert Pujols.

But most importantly, it is beautiful in that the game is not ever over until it is over. In football, you can kneel and run out the clock. Basketball devolves into a bizarre mini-game of fouling. In soccer and hockey you can try to keep possession of the ball until relieved by the clock.

But in baseball, there is no such luxury. You don't get to sneak away from the game until your opponent is completely vanquished. In fact, you must deliver to him his opportunity to come back. In every game, you must attain 27 outs to win.

The same can be said about the course of a long season. Although comebacks from deep in the standings are rare, you can still hope and pray while you remain mathematically alive. There is always hope. Until you are down to your final out and strike, anything can happen.

There is no time that this feeling is stronger than on Opening Day. And for no team is that feeling stronger than for the New York Mets.

Who can explain the Mets and what they do to us? Who can explain the white-knuckle finishes to so many of our seasons? How can you rationalize their incredible record on Opening Day except to say that they have an uncanny ability to provide hope in a way which no other franchise in any other sport can compare.

The Mets were great today, so please forgive me for my one quick tangent. I realize that most of you who read Fonzie Forever look forward to our thoroughly grounded perspective on things. I have been very proud of our willingness to even-handedly criticize the team, and to ground our opinions deeply in statistics, scouting, and other objective fact.

But not today. Today I will allow myself to dream.

Something Ron Darling said during the broadcast today was truly brilliant. At the time, he was discussing David Wright's troubles last year, but what he said is applicable to baseball in general. In fact, it crystallizes into one sentence exactly why hope springs eternal as a baseball fan.

"When you're a major league player and you are struggling," Darling said, "You are an inch away, not a mile away."

And he's absolutely right. On a micro level, he is absolutely correct about David Wright. Only in baseball does a microscopic hitch in your swing turn an All-Star into a journeyman. Only in baseball does a loss of 1 or 2% of your skills knock you out of the game entirely.

But Darling's point has a broader application than that. We wrote a post here in February where we discussed this ephemeral concept:

Baseball is so much more than just a string of isolated offseason transactions. And now, with the snow on the ground in Flushing finally beginning to melt, we as fans are transported to Port St. Lucie, clipboards in hand, listening to the sound of Johan Santana's fastball popping into the mitt of one of our thousand catchers.

And regardless of how underwhelmed you were with how the Mets did this offseason, you've got to find yourself thinking, if only for a moment, "can we do this?"

Tiny little incremental improvements make an enormous difference in baseball. So no matter what position your team is in, and no matter how disaffected you are by the long cold winter of disappointment, there is reason to dream.

In baseball, you can make the playoffs by winning 90 games. That is only eight more wins than a team that is a .500 team. That's eight lucky games, eight fortuitous bounces of the ball, eight great managerial decisions or bad umpiring calls.

So on a day when the Mets play such fantastic baseball, you might find yourself thinking about Darling's theorem. What if the Mets offseason plan executed itself perfectly? What if, for once, we were a little lucky instead of unlucky? Because it truly would not take much to make this Mets team, projected as a middle-of-the-pack team, to put themselves in the playoff picture.

What if...

... Reyes and Beltran come back according to schedule and play like All-Stars?
... Wright regains just SOME of his power and hits 25 home runs this year instead of 10?
... Angel Pagan maintains his level of play and becomes the best fourth outfielder in MLB?
... Just one of Pelfrey, Maine, or Perez takes their game to the next level? It is not so crazy to think that JUST ONE of these very talented young pitchers can elevate themselves to an ace. I wouldn't bet on any individual one of them doing so - but I wouldn't bet against one of the group doing so.
... Jeff Francoeur and Rod Barajas have decently good seasons, giving the Mets one of the deepest lineups in the entire National League?

On Opening Day, you are allowed to dream about these things. Although when all is said and done, over the course of 162 games, the best team will probably win - it does not take much for a contender to put itself into the conversation.

And that's the beauty of baseball. You are always just an inch away.

Chris Carter Probably Being Overlooked For The Right Reasons

Ed Ryan over at Mets Fever had a thoughtful post today asking "how is Chris Carter getting overlooked" for the first base job? He's performed very well in spring training and, with Murphy struggling, one might think he deserves a look. A good thought, but not so fast.

Carter hit .294/.358/.465 for Triple-A Pawtucket in the International League last year while the property of the Red Sox. Decent numbers on the surface. However, putting up those numbers as a 26-year-old in Triple-A is a far cry from doing so in the major leagues.