Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Why I Love Cliff Floyd

For those of us long suffering Met fans, Cliff Floyd was very symbolic of our recent struggles. He's a good player, but for some reason or another, had been falling short of expectations for his first three years here.

For a quick back story, Cornelius Clifford Floyd was drafted in the first round of the 1991 draft by the Expos. After crushing AA to the tune of .329/.415/.600 with 26(!) home runs as a 20 year old, everyone assumed he was on the fast track to the majors.

Fast forward four injury-riddled seasons to 1997, and Cliff found himself trying to break in as a regular with the Florida Marlins. Finally, at the age of 25, he was able to arrive, hitting 20 home runs and driving in 90, while batting a robust .282. His career had various stops and starts after that, including a 2001 All-Star Selection for his 31 home run .317/.390/.578 season.

Prior to the 2002 season, the Mets elected to let Edgardo Alfonzo sign elsewhere, and used that money to ink Floyd to a four season, $26 million dollar deal. Already, he's justified that contract. But now, entering his final season, everyone is wondering what we can expect from our fragile, now 33 year old left fielder.

Cliff had somewhat of a renaissance last season. After playing in only 108 and 113 games in the previous two seasons, Cliffy banged out 34 home runs, drove in 98 runs, scored 85 times, and put up a line of .273/.358/.505. He had a great season, and was receiving chants of "MVP! MVP!" early on in the season when he was on a torrid pace. It was a good season.

What really struck me about Cliff Floyd’s 2005, however, was how many fans kept referring (and still keep referring to it) as a “career year”. For his career, Cliff has hit: .281/.361/.494. Last season's numbers were right in line those. As a matter of fact, Cliff was better on a per at bat basis in 2003 but played fewer games. His true career season came in the aforementioned All-Star year - .317/.390/.578 - wow.

So if he wasn't unusually productive, why was he able to set a career high in home runs and once again FEEL like a dominant force in the middle of that Met lineup? Take a look at the following:

Double/HR ratio
2001- 44 / 31
2002- 43 / 28
2003- 25 / 18
2004- 26 / 18
2005- 22 / 34

For some reason or another, more of Cliff's hard hits went over the fence last season. His slugging percentage didn't change appreciably, but the proportion of home runs to other hits increased dramatically.

Many players, as they age, will add muscle mass and lose speed. We've already seen Cliff slow down for a variety of reasons, but maybe now he is at a point in his career where he's becoming more of a slugger rather than an all-around ballplayer. An interesting comp, simply because he's another power hitting left fielder, would be Barry Bonds. Bonds, obviously, had his steroid-induced seasons in the 2000's, but earlier in his career exhibited the trend that we would expect.

For his first four seasons, he hit more doubles than home runs. Every season after that (except for two) he hit more home runs than doubles - sometimes by a very wide margin. His slugging percentage didn't shoot into the stratosphere until 2000, but the process obviously changed.

I think we can expect a decline in the number of home runs Floyd will hit next season both because of the exaggerated 2B-HR ratio and the unusually high number of games he played. As a Met fan, I can only hope that Floyd's competitiveness will keep him in the lineup for an entire season again.

He's a real competitor, and for the 2002-2003 campaigns, when we were depressingly out of the race, he shut it down at the end of the year. Coincidence or not, but the arrival of Willie Randolph and winning baseball happened at the same time as Cliff's first full season in a while.

You can tell he's driven and motivated by winning by the way he argued with Valentine, and when he spoke out to the media in 2004 by saying there was no light at tne end of the tunnel. I enjoyed that. So here's hoping that Cliff can keep it together for another season, because at the age of 33, he probably sees his window as a productive ball player closing fast (during the dark parts of 2004, he was even contemplating retirement).

I expect that he'll end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-27 home runs and 90 rbi if he bats in the #5 or #6 slot, and that David Wright will continue to carry his luggage all season. If he can do that, then this season may not end in September like too many have as of late.

**UPDATE**
This might be a little fanboyish... but how cool is this guy:

illflavored: What do you spend more time working on, hitting or defense?
Floyd: Hitting.

Anthony_Cocuzza: Cliff, what kind of car do you drive?
Floyd: I have an S500, a Flying Spur Bentley, SL500, Range Rover, Dodge Magnum, Cadillac EXT and Phantom Rolls Royce. And that's why I work so hard on the hitting.

yanksboy15: What is it like to see yourself in a video game?
Floyd: It's crazy. I always play with my team. I get really mad when I strike out in the game.

Also according to the mets.com chat, he bench presses 450 and has bowled a 290 in the past year. Impressive guy.

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