Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Lineup Construction Issues

[responding to a thread about Mets' lineup construction]

The majority of a player’s at-bats against pitchers of either hand will come versus starters, against whom there are much less significant splits usually.
The lefties that Delgado and Floyd will face at the end of games will be killer LOOGY’s… who usually have established and drastic splits, and probably would reduce Delgado and Floyd to below 800 OPS.

I used to think it wasn’t a big deal to bat them back to back, but if Chris in GA is right about Wright crushing lefthanders, I think we have no choice. I wouldn’t want to put the burden of cleanup on Wright either, nor would I enjoy wasting Delgado at the three-hole, but I think the LOOGY problem is larger than we would think from looking at career splits.

I hate to say it, but through the lens of Delgado-Wright-Floyd… it might even be wise to bat someone else second other than Beltran. Sure, it would push them back to 4-5-6, but I think the whole issue of losing a game while so-and-so is on deck is truly overstated.

Let’s see just how much Delgado will clog up the bases…
593 plate appearances
80 singles 72 walks 17 HBP= 169 times on first base, or 28% of the time
33 home runs 3 triples 41 doubles= 77 times he left first base open via hit
364 times leaving first base open via out

I don’t see it being that bad of a problem. One time out of four he’ll be on first base slowing DW down. One time out of eight he’ll do something excellent. If one of you guys wants to come up with his baserunning slwts or whatever it is, that might even paint a better picture.

In addition, Wright hit 106 singles last season and walked 72 times, ending up on first base 185 times when you include his HBP.

Let’s say that 28% of those times on base, Delgado is on first with a silly grin and being slow. That’s 51 times. If he repeats his 2005 season, and all my arbitrary other numbers hold true, that would be 134 opportunities to steal, give or take, if Delgado goes from first to second on every single.

So all David would have to do would be to steal successfully one out of every 4 times on first base, and thats if he never stole third. I think that won’t be a problem at all.

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