Outside the Box, Part 2: Bring Back Fonzie

A few days ago, Kevin Kernan of the New York Post caught up with our former second baseman, Edgardo Alfonzo.

This caught my attention, to say the least.

Alfonzo still has his baseball dream. He wants to play for the Mets one more time. When his career ends, he wants it to end as a Met. The fact that Alfonzo still has that kind of loyalty to his former team tells you everything you need to know about the man.
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He feels so confident he is willing to put it all on the line for a shot at the majors. He’s going back to Venezuela for winter ball with the hopes of being signed by a big league club.

The Mets stand above all others: The team he signed with in 1991 and played eight years with and went to the World Series with in 2000, the Subway Series, which he still holds dear to his heart . . . If Alfonzo goes to spring training with the Mets and it doesn’t work out, so be it.

“My dream is to retire with the Mets colors,” Alfonzo said. “That’s my dream. That’s what I’m praying for, maybe it will happen, maybe not, but dreams sometimes come true, you know.”

What? No. I just have something in my eye. In both my eyes.

It's been a while since Fonzie has been a truly productive ballplayer. After a fine 2002 season with the Mets where he hit .308/.391/.459 with 16 home runs and more walks than strikeouts, he has struggled mightily.

From 2003-2006 he posted an OPS of only 701, while batting .266. His plate discipline was still there (138 walks to 199 strikeouts in almost 1500 plate appearances), but he hit for no power at all (slugging .371 with only 26 homers in that time). Since then, he's played in the Independent League, Japan, and the Venezuelan Winter League.

The odds of Alfonzo returning to any kind of form where he could help the Mets on the field is somewhere between zero and impossible. Best case scenario, he might be able to hit .275 with some walks and no power -- but nobody has seen him play at the major league level in years[1].

His last two years in the majors he returned ugly fielding stats (courtesy fangraphs), but we really don't know how much of that is small sample size, injury, or otherwise. As any good Mets fan knows, when he was healthy he was an excellent and versatile defender, capable of playing third or second base (and also, according to Kernan, first base). Most importantly, even when he was putting up bad numbers defensively, they came almost exclusively at third base. As a second baseman, his UZR was basically zero from 2003-2006.

So why is this a good idea for the Mets? Frankly, it's a no-risk proposition and there is a fairly good chance that Alfonzo can help.

Fonzie sounds prepared to face the facts if he is unable to play the game at the major league level anymore. There is no harm in inviting him to spring training and letting him run around Port St. Lucie with the team again. As Kernan points out:

Anyone who has spent time in the Mets clubhouse the past year knows that adding a class player and person like Edgardo Alfonzo only would help. He could toss some helpful advice David Wright’s way.

Alfonzo’s dream is to go to spring training with the Mets and let the chips fall where they may. He said he thinks he could be a valuable utility player and feels he has two or three years of baseball left in his body. He also could offer guidance and wisdom to a team that lacked baseball common sense.

I don't typically buy the notion of "class players" or that Alfonzo will in any way make David Wright better. But he *is* a great person. He loves the Mets, and wants to give back to the organization. When healthy, he was a truly fantastic hitter with phenomenal plate discipline -- even when he was hurt and on the verge of getting knocked out of baseball, he managed to walk 5 times and strike out only once with the Blue Jays. He worked long counts, he understood the game, and he's a rare, decent human being.

So take a look at the potential upside. If he can hit .275, draw some walks, and play fair but not terrible defense -- he will have value. If he's willing to come back and don the Orange and Blue for one more year at a minimum salary or with a contract with incentives, what would we have to lose? Take a look at the sad excuses for players that the Mets trotted out there last season:

Alex Cora: 2009 OPS of 630. Career OPS of 658
Wilson Valdez: 2009 OPS of 664. Career OPS of 565.
Anderson Hernandez: 2009 OPS of 651. Career OPS of 627.
Ramon Martinez: 2009 OPS of 396. Career OPS of 689.

I don't advocate roster construction based on the worst-case scenario, but my suggestion to the Mets would be to bring Alfonzo back to spring training and give him a chance to show he can play.

If he can't, cut him loose. But if he can -- and I think there is a fair chance that he could surprise people -- he might be a low-cost, fan-friendly, positive-influence of a guy. Why not find out?

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[1] For what it's worth, Alfonzo posted good numbers in the Independent League in 2008. After an injury plagued 2006 in the majors, he struggled in the Independent League in 2007, posting a 714 OPS. The next year, however, he returned to an 884 OPS and .329 average.

The Return of the Kid...Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

As I'm sure you've heard, the Mariners inked Ken Griffey Jr. to another one-year extension yesterday. The deal, however, has been criticized by notable figures in the Mariners sabermetric community.

Dave Cameron at USS Mariner cites diminished roster flexibility as his chief critique:

If we assume that the M’s are going to carry 12 pitchers again, that leaves them with a four man bench. One of those spots is reserved for the back-up catcher, and now Junior occupies another. That means the final two bench spots have to serve as the reserves for the other eight spots on the field.

Meanwhile, Jon at formerly-Bleeding Blue and Teal now-Pro Ball NW maintains a snarky ambivalence:

"Whatever...[h]opefully Griffey can use his super dooper clubhouse chemistry powers to lure in a free agent that Seattle otherwise would have trouble pulling."

Of course, there are plenty of the old-guard writers who excitedly await Griffey's return to the clubhouse. These include sabermetric averse writers who fawn over veterans and uncritical Mariners fans.

I feel that the oft-cited clubhouse tangibles that Griffey brought to the team this past season and increased Griffey-related merchandise sales are worth the $3.5 million (reported value of the contract if all incentives are met). The contract is hardly an albatross; monetarily, the incentive-laden deal is similar to the last minute deal he signed this past spring.

On the field, in ~450 PA, he somehow led the team in walks...though that may be more an indicator of how O-ffensive the offense was in '09 than anything else. That said, I harbor no fantasies of a return to form and I'm sure Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik doesn't either. It doesn't help that Griffey had surgery on Oct. 26 to remove bone spurs from his soon-to-be 40 year-old knees.

I'll concede the roster flexibility criticism to a certain degree. Jack Hannahan, Bill Hall and Matt Tuiasasopo can be utilized as super-subs in many positions to help fortify an already outstanding defense. Griffey, however, will most likely be utilized as SS Jack Wilson's late-inning pinch hitter against RHP. Wakamatsu, depending on who else Zduriencik acquires this offseason, can mix-and-match with the remaining bench players. Wak effectively mitigated Griffey's on field-presence as much as he could, particularly given Endy Chavez' injury and early-season roster deficiencies that weren't addressed until the arrivals of Hannahan and Hall. I'm confident that he'll be able to do the same in 2010.

Bottom line though, I like the move as a baseball fan because it allows me to see one of my favorite players evah continue to have an impact on my favorite team. Whether it's a net positive impact remains to be seen.

The Real Gold Gloves

Anyone who follows baseball closely realizes that the players who win the gold gloves are often not the best fielders in the league. The voters simply don't seem to care very much about who they vote for, which is a shame, but luckily we can just ignore them and figure out who should have won ourselves. Here are the people that, based on the most advanced statistics available, probably should have won the awards. I am basing this mostly on this year's performance, but also factoring in performance in the past couple of years as well since fielding stats are more accurate with the larger sample size.

American League

C - Gerald Laird; HM - Joe Mauer
Not really a surprise here, Laird is an excellent athlete for a catcher, he's excellent at nabbing base-stealers and one of the best on the bunt.

1B - Kendry Morales; HM - Kevin Youkilis
First base is the hardest position to really get statistically, but Morales combines exceptional assist, putout and fielding % numbers. It would have been Youkilis if he'd spent the whole season at first, but I cannot justify giving him the award since he just didn't rack up enough innings.

2B - Dustin Pedroia; HM - Placido Polanco
Purely on this years statistics, Polanco was better this year and Ian Kinsler was about equal; however, Pedroia has been better over the last few seasons on the whole by a respectable amount and given the large amount of noise in fielding statistics I feel that Pedroia is the proper choice.

3B - Evan Longoria; HM - Chone Figgins/Adrian Beltre
All three of these guys are really superb fielders, but Longoria has been the best, both this year and combining the last two. If you have watched him play, it is impossible to miss his lightning reflexes and strong, accurate arm.

SS - Elvis Andrus; HM - Cesar Izturis
Izturis and Adam Everett actually were slightly better than Andrus on a rate basis, but because Andrus played basically 300 more innings at SS than either of them, I'm giving him the award. He has phenomenal range and makes very few mental mistakes, particularly for someone so young.

OF - Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Sweeney, Carl Crawford; HM - B.J. Upton, Ichiro, David Dejesus
Gutierrez is probably the best defensive player in all of baseball. He essentially laps the field in terms of outfielders and the fact that he didn't win a real gold glove this year is criminally negligent. Ryan Sweeney goes completely unnoticed in Oakland but he has both great range and a fantastic arm, he's the only one in the same area code as Gutierrez on a rate basis. Crawford is really a centerfielder playing left, but he does it so much better than everyone else he gets the third glove.

P - Mark Buehrle; HM - Felix Hernandez
Buehrle's defense is one of the subtle reasons he has so much success despite not striking out many guys or having great stuff. Ground-ball inducing left-handers tend to be the best fielding pitchers partially out of opportunity but also often out of necessity.

National League

C - Yadier Molina; HM - Russ Martin
Anyone who has watched Molina play the catcher position realizes he just does it differently than everyone else. He makes every base-runner nervous and passive while being rock-solid in blocking pitches as well. His quick feet and rocket arm also make him one of the best at fielding bunts. He also is the most aggressive catcher at trying to get lead runners or throwing behind people and steals several outs that way over the course of the season.

1B - Albert Pujols; HM - Adrian Gonzalez
Forget complicated defensive metrics, Pujols led NL 1B's in assists by 49 and putouts by 84! He's not just the best hitter in baseball but probably the best all around player.

2B - Chase Utley; HM - Brandon Phillips
Perhaps the only player that could give Pujols a run at best all-around player is Utley. He has been the best defensive second baseman in all of baseball for several years now and somehow has not won a gold glove yet. I think it is mostly a stereo type thing; people see a slugging second baseman and automatically assume he is a stiff, completely ignoring the fact that he gets to more balls than anyone else out there.

3B - Ryan Zimmerman; HM - Kevin Kouzmanoff
Zimmerman really has no competition for this award, he is similar to Longoria. A great athlete with quick reflexes and a big arm who makes both the spectacular play and the routine one.

SS - JJ Hardy; HM - Ryan Theriot - Hardy, Theriot and Rafael Furcal were all pretty even this year but I'm giving the award to Hardy based on his track record the last few seasons. Hardy would have probably separated himself on his own if he wasn't bench for poor hitting late in the year anyway.

OF - Nyjer Morgan, Randy Winn, Mike Cameron; HM - Colby Rasmus, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence
P - Ubaldo Jimenez; HM - Jason Marquis
Morgan is not only one of the fastest outfielders in the majors, but he also takes perfect routes, allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. Even if his hitting tumbles (which it probably will) he is still a valuable asset. Cameron and Winn are both getting up there in years and while they may have lost a step, they make up for it with intelligent positioning. Both are still at the top of the class in terms of range.

Outside the Box, Part 1: Magglio Ordonez

This might sound crazy, but the Mets might want to take a look at acquiring a guy like Magglio Ordonez for next season.

Now, as has been discussed ad nauseum, Magglio managed to trigger his massive $18 million option for the 2010 season. At this stage of his career, at the tail end of a big contract, he is simply not worth that kind of money[1].

But might he make sense for the Mets?

Although his struggles last year were highly publicized, Magglio ended the year with a very respectable line of .310/.376/.428 with only 9 home runs. His career line is very similar in average and on-base, but his career slugging percentage is .513, and he hit 24, 28, and 21 home runs in the previous three years.

Even better, after struggling uncharacteristically in the first half, he hit above his career averages in the second half, destroying up the American League at a .375/.438/.540 pace.

As for 2010, Magglio has a projected (as per Bill James) line of .311/.376/.476 with 17 home runs. In addition, he played 104 games in right field last season and posted a -2.8 UZR according to fangraphs -- not bad at all[2]. The previous two years he posted ratings of 15.4 and -5.6.

He will play the entirety of next year at age 36. It is not unreasonable to believe that he can reach, or even exceed, that projected line. If he met the projection, he would be worth approximately $14 million next year.

So why does this make sense for the Mets? Because the Tigers are trying to dump salary. Per the New York Post:

In a cost-cutting frame of mind, the Tigers have let teams now that Curtis Granderson could be had for the right package, an NL executive told The Post.
* * *
But the Tigers are supporting a top payroll in one of the cities hit hardest by the economic downturn, and they have many long-term commitments to players who are just about untradeable, including Magglio Ordonez

If the Tigers are trying to dump salary, and they are out of it next year, then they would LOVE to shed Magglio's contract. They would much prefer to hold on to young talent who could concievably be around for the next good Tigers team, like Granderson or Edwin Jackson.

So instead of signing Matt Holliday for $18-$20 million per season for six years, the Mets could bolster their lineup by acquiring Magglio in a straight salary dump. We'd have a VERY good hitter, have to give up almost nothing, and have a financial commitment of only one or two seasons. This all depends on the state of the Tigers, but the teams match up perfectly.

In my outside the box plan, the Mets would take on Magglio's contract in a manner similar to when Manny Ramirez was available through waivers several years ago from the Red Sox. Then, they could non-tender Francoeur, move him to left field, or trade him for something that we could really use. If we were to non-tender him, the cost of Magglio's contract would net out to something like $13 million.

I'd say it's worth kicking the tires.

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[1] According to Cot's Contracts, Magglio has the same vesting option for 2011 -- that is, if he reached 135 starts or 540 PA's, that his contract will trigger again for another $18 million. Let's assume for now, however, that we can avoid that by resting him continually throughout the year.

[2] In comparison, Jeff Francoeur rated as a -6.1 last season.

Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter

I was recently looking through fangraph's pitching value stats when something struck me. It involved the effectiveness of the cutter, a pitch made famous by Mariano Rivera but thrown by several other pitchers with a great deal of effectiveness.

In the last two years among qualified starters, 17 pitchers can be said to use a cutter often enough that it can be considered a legitimate part of their repertoire. Those 17 pitchers are: Roy Halladay, Scott Feldman, Dan Haren, Jon Lester, John Danks, Andy Pettitte, Chad Billingsley, Jason Marquis, Doug Davis, Jamie Moyer, John Garland, Mark Buehrle, Brian Bannister, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Nick Blackburn, Jarrod Washburn. That is an interesting cross-section of players. We have power pitchers, finesse pitchers, stars, mediocre players, lefties and righties.

The big point however is that these are the only starting pitchers who throw cutters routinely in baseball right now and the striking thing is that all of their cutters are effective. With every other pitch available to a person you will find some that are very good and some that are very bad. For every Zack Greinke slider there is a Braden Looper slider, for every Adam Wainwright curve you have a Joe Saunders. Not so, with the cutter. Out of those 17 pitchers, the worst cutter belongs to Jarrod Washburn, but even his was just barely a below average pitch. Conversely there are a lot of pitchers whose cutters are extremely effective.

Out of the 17 pitchers listed, for nine of them, the cutter is their most effective pitch. Those nine include Halladay, Lester, Haren, Danks, and Pettitte who are some of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Just as interestingly, in zero cases is the cutter the worst pitch in any of those players' repertoire.

The data for the relief pitchers in baseball is actually very similar to this, for most of the players who employ a cutter, it is their best pitch and for almost no one who uses is regularly does it have a negative value.

All of this data seems to suggest that the cutter, in general, is an incredibly useful pitch to learn and use. It seems that more pitchers are learning it every year and it has helped their careers immensely. Scott Feldman only starting using it often this year and turned himself from an average reliever into an above average starter. Roy Halladay's spike in strikeouts recently corresponds directly to his increased use of the cutter. John Danks had a poor rookie season in 2007, learned a cutter in 2008 and turned himself into a borderline all-star. These are perfect examples of how learning this pitch has greatly altered a players career for the better. All of you pitcher out there take note; if you want to become a better pitcher, learn a cutter!

New Team!

Hey everyone.

Just wanted to let you all know that we're taking a few new writers on board here at Fonzie Forever.

Two of my best friends from high school and two of my best friends from college are lending their talents to the site.

The staff is going to consist of two Mets fans, two Yankees fans, and a Mariners fan. Hopefully, it'll be a well-rounded and fun experience for everyone. Plus, I enjoy the perspective of non-Mets fans on my work.

Keep checking back!

-Brian

Formerly: A Blog Dedicated to the Mets, Random Statistical Analyses, Baseless Predictions, and Edgardo Alfonzo's Magical 1999 and 2000. And David Wright... and cookies. And Pedro's hair, but really that's it.

Change and Castillo

Something I have heard discussed a lot this offseason is the idea of the Mets trading away Luis Castillo and then signing Orlando Hudson to play second.

My question is: why?

Sure, Castillo's four year, $24 million contract looked foolish at the time the Mets gave it to him. But now? Castillo, who looked rejuvenated last year, is coming off a season where he hit .302/.387/.346 and stole 20 bases. He is only due $12 million over the next two years.

People who know me know I am NOT the biggest Castillo fan. In fact, he embodies many of the things I dislike most about ballplayers. But I'm also a realist -- after his bounceback season, and at that contract, Castillo is an asset. According to fangraphs, he was worth approximately $7 million last year -- and that his contract expires in two years is a good thing as well.

With so many holes to fill this offseason, why are we trying to create a NEW issue to deal with?

Orlando Hudson is a good player- but for all intents and purposes, he is not really that much of an upgrade over Castillo. He is turning 32 (Castillo is turning 34). He will likely command a contract in the neighborhood of $7-$8 million per year for multiple years (he made around $7 million last year). And to be honest? He's not an upgrade.

His OPS over the last four years has been 809, 817, 817, and 774. His line last year was a paltry .283/.357/.417 with 9 home runs and 8 stolen bases. He was basically Luis Castillo with 30 less points in on-base percentage and 70 more points of slugging. A few more home runs, and a dozen less steals.

I LIKE Orlando Hudson -- he's a nice guy, a great interview, and seemingly a good clubhouse presence. But don't be fooled -- making the swap of Castillo for Hudson most likely won't make the Mets better, and stands a chance of making them worse.

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footnote:

In fairness, Hudson does tend to rank better than Castillo when it comes to defensive metrics. According to fangraphs, over the last three years, here are their ultimate zone rating values:

Hudson: 0.5, -5.1, -3.3
Castillo: 1.7, -4.7, -10.4

Therefore, even with their hitting being comparable, Hudson came out as worth $13.0 million last year compared to Castillo's $7 million.

However, we are comparing Castillo's age 32-34 seasons with Hudson's prime years of 30-32. It is probable (or definite) that Hudson's fielding is going to see a severe drop in the next couple of years.

Even with the fielding factored in, the upgrade from Hudson to Castillo would not be worth it unless the commitment was the same length (two years) and at a comparable price - both of which are unlikely - or if we could flip Castillo for something of real value.

Quick Thought on Baseball America's Top 10

As most die-hards already know, Baseball America recently released their "Top 10 Prospects" list for the Mets for 2009.

The one thing that stands out on the list (written by Mets beat writer Adam Rubin, who does a terrific job) is that Fernando Martinez, our former #1 prospect, slipped down the list to #3. So after two years atop the list, why now?

Jenrry Mejia, a 19-year-old righty with the best fastball in the system, according to BA, ascended to the top spot. He had a pretty good season last year for a young guy:

A+ St. Lucie: 4-1, 1.97 ERA, 50.1 IP, 16 BB, 44 K, 1.13 WHIP
AA Binghamton: 0-5, 4.47 ERA, 44.1 IP, 23 BB, 47 K, 1.51 WHIP

To hold your own in AA as a 19 year-old is impressive. People who have seen him pitch really like his stuff. Mejia could really go places.

But I am worried that Fernando, after so many years as a stud prospect, is being looked at as an afterthought. In fact, just last week, I reminded people not to sleep on Fernando Martinez. Why?

Fernando hit .290/.337/.540 in AAA last season at the age of 20. And this is building on a season where, at the age of 19, and after a slow April, he hit .303 in AA from May til the end of the year."

It appears the guys at Amazin' Avenue might feel the same about the drop in the rankings and the perception of Fernando. They worry that perhaps "the Mets are putting stock into his worthless sample-size major-league audition, because I find it hard to believe an injury could hurt his stock so much in a season where he had a break out."

And break out he certainly did. We are watching Fernando Martinez finally tap into the immense potential we've been told about for three years. If you told anyone that you had a 20 year-old in Triple-A and posting an OPS of 877, they would probably be willing to trade the farm for him(1). But in New York, the hype machine starts young and fizzles out quickly.

As a Mets fan, one can only hope that the flip-flop in the rankings comes as a compliment to Jennry Mejia (and Wilmer Flores, who ranked #2) and not as part of a decrease in Fernando's perceived value.

With prospects, anything can happen -- but the bottom line is that to be in AAA and doing what he did at the age of 20 is remarkable.

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(1) Just for fun, let's play a quick game of "what were they doing when they were 20!" I'm going to pick a few names -- some of mega stars and some of random regular outfielders.

No direct comparison picked at random would ever create a set of fair expectations for Fernando - but I think it is instructive that many of the best were way behind where he is (and vice versa, many better prospects do not succeed at all).


Category 1 -- Star Talents

Mark Teixiera: In college. Posted an 1008 OPS in AA at the age of 22.
Derek Jeter: 808 OPS in A+, 962 OPS in AA, 931 OPS in AAA.
David Wright: 828 OPS in A+, did not reach AA until 21.
Manny Ramirez: 881 OPS in A+.
Gary Sheffield: 640 OPS in MLB for Milwaukee - previous season had already posted obscene 968 OPS in AAA at age 19.
Alex Rodriguez: In majors.

Category 2 -- Good/Great Players

Matt Holliday: Posting a 724 OPS in A+ ball.
Raul Ibanez: 799 OPS in rookie ball, did not reach AAA until age 24.
Nick Markakis: 841 OPS in A ball.
Grady Sizemore: 853 OPS in AA.

Category 3 -- Others

Carlos Gomez: 772 OPS in AA.
Alex Escobar: Missed age 20 season, but in age 21 season posted an 862 OPS in AA. Never had an OPS higher than 758 in AAA as a Met.
Nate McLouth: 716 OPS in A+

Emotion Versus Logic and This Year's World Series

[Eric Simon of Amazin Avenue already beat me to it -- but I'm changing my vote. I actually decided this a few days ago, but wanted to wait to see if the Series continued before writing about it.]

Like all Mets fans, I had a long time to think about what I would do should the Yankees and Phillies match up against one another in the World Series. With the Yankees plowing through the American League, and with the Phillies making the Dodgers look like the Toms River little league team, it seemed almost inevitable.

In my post last week, entitled Why I am Rooting For the Yankees, I explained my decision. It was well thought out, it was serious, and the logic was rock-solid. With the Phillies in our division, I reasoned, they were the real enemies -- anything against the Yankees was simply based on feelings of inadequacy.

But as I watched Game 1, it became clear that no amount of logic could undo what has been a lifetime of conditioning -- I can't root for the Yankees. It didn't matter that I love New York and hate Philadelphia. It didn't matter that the Phillies talked trash about us in their victory parade last season, or called us chokers, or beat our pants off for the last three years. None of that mattered.

I found myself, over and over again, reflexively rooting for the Phillies. When Utley homered off of Sabathia, I cheered. When the Phillies piled on the insurance in the later innings, I was happy.

In baseball, when there is a bang-bang play, there is no time to think. The umpire signals a certain way, and you react. And no matter how hard I tried, I couldn't compel myself to root for the Yankees.

After Game 3 ended, I found myself contemplating which way I would set up the rotation if I was Charlie Manuel. I kept hoping that they would pitch Cliff Lee in games 4 and 7. I kept looking for reasons to believe that A.J. Burnett wouldnt be able to come back and pitch a gem on short rest.

Suffice to say, I gave up even trying to root for the Yankees before Game 5 began.

[It doesn't even matter that baseball-reference.com has somehow already declared the Yankees the winners of the series.]

So now, I am going to get to root for my favorite player tomorrow without guilt. Without conflicting emotions. When Pedro Martinez goes out there, in Yankee Stadium, with a chance to push this series to a Game 7, I will be rooting like crazy for him.

More importantly, with no guarantees that Pedro will come back for another year, we might be witnessing the last time Pedro Martinez ever throws a pitch in the major leagues.

For a lot of reasons, tomorrow night's game becomes one of the most important games of my generation.

The greatest that I have ever seen, pitching on the grandest stage, against our mutual nemesis. I hope that anyone with an even tangential interest in baseball is able to witness it.

I hope Pedro still has a little magic left in his arm. After all these years, I wouldn't bet against him.

Mets Catcher Situation

As has been reported, and re-reported, the Mets have apparently decided to target a free agent catcher in this year's hot stove league.

The Mets have targeted three catchers -- Barajas, Bengi Molina and Yorvit Torrealba. I have listed them in the Mets' preference and, they suspect, in the order of likelihood. - Marty Noble, MLB.com

Folks around the internet have weighed in on that idea. Should the Mets bring in a free agent catcher to pair with Omir Santos or Josh Thole or to give Thole more time in the minor leagues?

It depends on the price, but for the most part I am against the idea.

The Free Agents

Some have speculated that Barajas would settle for a contract as low as one year and $2 million. He made $2.5 million on a one year deal with the Blue Jays this year, and would likely command a raise if he went on the free agent market.

Bengie Molina is coming off a contract where he made over $16 million over three years with the Giants. He's likely due a pay cut, but he's a well-known run producer and would likely command upwards of $4 million a year.

So let's assume we're talking best-case scenario -- a short contract, for cheap, to bring in Molina or Barajas to catch for a year and ease Thole into the role. Is that even a good idea then?

I STILL think no.

Rod Barajas is coming off a season where he hit .226/.258/.403 with 19 home runs. Sure, the power is great, but we are talking about a guy who posted a lower OPS than Anderson Hernandez did last season. Even Jeremy Reed, who couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag last season, posted an on-base percentage of .301 -- or 5% higher than Barajas.

The same goes for Molina. Molina is coming off a year where he hit .265/.285/.442 with 20 home runs. Once again, the pop is nice, but the VAST MAJORITY of at bats taken by this catcher is going to end in abject failure.

Molina is going to be 35 this year. Barajas is going to be 34. Both hit worse than Omir Santos, who we watched flail around this season like a blind person. Santos hit .260/.296/.391 in one of the most infuriating displays of baseball ineptitude that I've been forced to watch this decade.

So yes, the financial commitment to Molina/Barajas might be low, but be giving either of them playing time, we are going to be making things worse instead of better. We do not need to spend money - ANY money - on a big name catcher.

The Incumbent - Josh Thole

I don't think that Thole is ready to dominate the National League. In fact, I think Thole might end up being a better baseball player over his career if he had more time in AAA to learn and maybe hit for a little power. However - if there ever was a time to throw a rookie into the fire, it is now.

Thole had an excellent year last year. In AA, he hit .328/.395/.422 over 384 at-bats. He followed that up with a line of .321/.356/.396 in the majors over a short 53 at-bat visit. He struck out less than 10% of the time in the majors, and owned a 42-34 walk to strikeout ratio in the minors.

In addition, as of October 30th, Thole has been hitting .389 in the Venezeuelan Winter league, striking out only five times. It has been a comprehensively excellent season, start to finish, for Thole.

So how might Thole fare in the majors next year? Well, according to minorleaguesplits.com's MLE calculator, Thole's AA stats translate to a batting line of .247/.307/.314. Subpar, to be sure, but major league equivalences are just an exercise and don't factor in the individual characteristics of the player -- like for instance, Thole's amazing place discipline and bat control.

Onviously, his final line if allowed to play next year would be somewhere between his fantastic major league audition and the MLE above. Even being pessimistic, I see good things for Thole. An average between .280-.300 is attainable, an on-base percentage between .310-.330, and a slugging percentage between .350-.370.

Being conservative, I'd forecast him somewhere around .290/.320/.360.(1)

Conclusion

That line, like I said, does not make Thole a star. It does not make it that he is not a drag on the lineup. It does not make up for any defensive problems that he may have as a young catcher breaking into the big leagues for the first time. But it is as good, or better, than the free agent catcher options that have been discussed.

Catchers around the league don't hit. These free agents being discussed don't hit. The Mets can survive, and thrive, with a catcher who is merely average at the plate. For example, Brian Schneider posted a line of .257/.339/.367 for the Mets in 2008, his first season with the club.

Nobody Schneider him for the Mets failure that year, and he was due over $8 million dollars over two years. Thole will make the minimum. Why are we so reluctant to give a young, good-hitting catcher the opportunity to play every day when we are so willing to let a guy like Daniel Murphy, who can barely hit, play first base every day?(2)

The Mets need to be very careful this offseason. There is not a lot of money to go around, and there are a lot of things that need fixing. A few million here or there might not sound like a lot, but if you sign a catcher, and then two guys like Cora and Redding from last year - that adds up.

I'm not dead set against bringing in a more experienced guy to platoon with Thole or give him a few months in AAA, but I think it would be a big mistake to sign any of the guys that have been linked to the Mets so far in rumor.

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(1) Though as a 23 year old who hit .300, .328, and .321 in A, AA, and MLB, he's got the potential to keep growing and maturing and beating that forecast easily.

(2) Murphy makes for a good comparison. Murphy hit .308/.374/.496 in AA last year before being called directly to the Mets and having a very strong debut.

Murphy's AA OPS was 870, Thole's was 817. Then in MLB, Murphy's OPS was 870 again while Thole's was 752.

The critical difference is that Thole is being asked to play a position where the average player bats .255/.316/.390. Murphy was slotted to play left field and first base, where the average player hits .274/.353/.437.

Murphy may have been slightly more advanced than Thole at the time of their callups, but the disparity between what is being asked of them is enormous. There was nothing in Murphy's resume to indicate that he would ever hit like a first baseman.

Thole, on the other hand, has provided us ample evidence that he will not only hit well enough as a catcher to earn his keep, but that there is a chance that he will someday excel.