Saturday, November 24, 2012

Real Life Stats for the Players in the Movie "Major League"

As I write this, I am watching (for the 65231th time) the incredibly amazing baseball movie Major League.  While watching, I was curious and wanted to see if anyone out there had taken a stab at projecting what these players - whose names we all know so well after years of watching this movie - actually did on the field in that legendary 1989 season.  As far as I can tell, only John Sickels did any projections (Sickels is amazing, and it's worth a read).  ESPN also broke down the playoff game and awarded a fictional MVP award (and correctly, at that) to Willie Mays Hayes. 

This project is completely unscientific and just for fun, so please leave your own projection and comments in the comments section below.  My best guesses are based on the context of the American League in 1989, the stats given in the movie itself, and other context clues.  Keep in mind that, although the Indians are presented as lovable losers for most of the movie, they DID end up winning 92 games.  For that reason, the offense must have been pretty good, because aside from Ricky Vaughn, the only pitcher we really learn about in the movie is the ancient Eddie Harris, who is not presented as very good himself.  Therefore, those 92 wins were not on the backs of their pitching staff, and the Indians must have scored a lot of runs.

In the real life American League in 1989, hitters posted a collective slash line of .261/.326/.384.  Pitchers in the AL that year had an ERA of 4.29, a WHIP of 1.35, and 5.5 K/9.  Hitters in the AL in 2012 batted a collective 255/.320/.411 and pitchers had a collective 4.08 ERA, a WHIP of 1.30 and a 7.4 K/9.  Therefore, if you'd like to compare the numbers I end up projecting for our lovable Indians to the numbers you might see today, give all the batters a slight boost in slugging %, and give our man Ricky Vaughn an uptick in his K/9.

As for the real life 1989 Indians, we all already know that they did not have a good season.  The Indians hit worse than league average, putting up a line of .245/.310/.365, although the pitchers acquitted themselves well with a 4.04 ERA and 1.29 WHIP despite their home park being slightly favorable to hitters.  The real life MVP was the incredible Robin Yount, who posted a slash line of .318/.384/.511.

Now, back to the movie.  We get most of our concrete information on the players from the final game of the season, in the playoff game between the Yankees and Indians for the AL East title.  In it, they announce that Clu Haywood, the Yankee cleanup hitter and Indian-killer, is announced as the AL Triple Crown winner with a line of .341 average, 48 HR and 121 RBI.  Those marks would have, in fact, narrowly won him all of those categories.  (Puckett .339, McGriff 36 HR, Ruben Sierra 119 RBI).

On the pitching side, Duke Sierra, the Yankees closer, posted a line of 1.37 ERA, with 51 H and 48 BB in only 118 innings while being used as an Eckersley-type ace.  We are also told he led the league in K/9, with 147 strikeouts over that span (11.2 K/9).  So even if you love Vaughn, we can't project him with more strikeouts than that.

On to the guesses (asterisks indicate statistics mentioned in the movie):

Jake Taylor - C
The veteran catcher, slow of foot, showed no indications that he has a decent offensive season in 1989.  They don't give us much to go off, except that we know that he bats second, behind Willie Mays Hayes.  I'm going to assume that he has a decent OBP, no power, and doesn't strike out too much.

.245/.345/.325, 62 Runs, 5 HR, 52 RBI

Ricky Vaughn - SP
After overcoming early season control problems, Vaughn really settles down and becomes one of the league's elite.  He makes the cover of Sports Illustrated and throws 101 MPH in the season's final game.  I imagine him to be a lot like a young Kerry Wood.  It appears that he begins the season out of the pen, and works his way into the rotation.

Sickels projected Vaughn's 1989 season as such: 9-9, 114 IP, 89 BB, 129K, 3.79 ERA with 41 games played and 19 starts.  I completely agree, although I think his ERA would be a little higher than that.

Willie "Mays" Hayes - CF
We see him in one scene nailing batting gloves to his wall.  He had said earlier that he was going to have a pair for every base he stole.  In this scene, which takes place right before the newspaper is shown, there are already approximately 50 pairs on the wall (the date on the newspaper is wrong, saying April).  As such, I think we could project that he stole 70 bases, or even more.  Rickey Henderson led the league with 77 stolen bases that year. 

Pair the below batting line with what appeared to be Gold Glove caliber defense in center field, and you've got yourself a burgeoning young star and borderline MVP candidate.

.291*/.361/.378, 115 Runs, 7 HR, 55 RBI
(Henderson hit .274/.411/.399 113 R, 57 RBI)

Roger Dorn - 3B
They talk about Dorn in the movie like he is a stud, although he admits to loafing defensively in the first half of the season.  His offensive stats were probably pretty sharp, and as he showed later in the season when it mattered, he was quite good defensively.  I imagine that in a good year, the unlikeable Dorn would also be a borderline MVP candidate.  In real life, Robin Yount won the 1989 AL MVP with a remarkable line of .318/.384/.511, with the rest of the Top-10 vote getters having OPS'es around 800.  I put Dorn in that neighborhood with the runners-up.

.272*/.362/.455, 85 Runs, 21 HR, 86 RBI*  (his 86 RBI would have placed him just outside the Top-10 in the AL that year).

Pedro Cerrano - RF
Cerrano hits directly behind Dorn, and is known for prodigious power coupled with a propensity for strikeouts.  With Dorn (and Hayes) hitting before him, I am sure that he had plenty of RBI opportunities.

.256/.310/.495, 76 Runs, 35 HR, 105 RBI  (the slash line is Bo Jackson's line from 1989)

So there you have it.  Hope you enjoyed it, and please leave your projections below.


Anonymous said...

I like it, but have to disagree with Jake Taylor's stats. In the Indian's win streak montage it shows him go yard to dead center. It also talks about him being a former all star. I would guess a slash line of .262/.356/.412 with 14-16 homers is about right. You have to figure he'd hit for a higher ave than Cerrano, as a former allstar catcher and bothering to show him take one out to CF he has pop. The low SLG% is because with his bad knees he's probably limited to singles or homers.

Charlie'sTeeth said...

In the original script, it mentions that Vaughn leads the league with 221 strike outs at one point during the season.

Anonymous said...

I always thought that Jake Taylor's contributions to the Indians were similar to Kirk Gibson's with the Dodgers. Without his leadership, they don't sniff the Yankees. At the beginning of ML2, Harry Doyle states that "Despite chronic knee problems, (Taylor) had a fine season."

My stats for Taylor: .270/.368/.450, 18 HR, 70 RBI.

Anonymous said...

I don't believe Pedro Cerrano would have as many home run's as it is listed because he couldn't hit a curveball, so he would only get home runs when the pitcher made a mistake and through him a fastball or a hanging curveball. Even a great hitter like Cerrano can't hit a homer every time the pitcher makes a mistake. I believe he would have an average of about 225. due to his lack of contact. I think his OBP would be around 285. because once again his lack of making contact and his withdrawal of plate discipline which is displayed at the beginning in spring training. Pedro's slugging percentage would be around 400. despite a low amount of hits, a total of about 20 dingers would help keep him at that steady number.

Anonymous said...

I believe in the sequel it says Cerrano was top 5 in homeruns, rbi, and slugging. I always likened him to Dave Kingman at worst Pedro Guerrero at best. Mays I always figured was Kenny Lofton-esque. Before Lofton was a big name of course. Never viewed hays as a Henderson type (power and insane plate discipline)

Anonymous said...

Agree with all except the following:
Ricky Vaughn probably would have won more than 9 games. If the team won 92 and he was probably their "number 2" pitcher, it is more likely that he would have won 12 or 13.

Jake Taylor was second in the batting order. In the final game, he batted right after the leadoff batter, Hays. Batting second, with Hays running a lot, he would probably had his share of ground ball singles. Also, in a relatively strong line-up, the second batter would have been a pretty good hitter, but not a power hitter. Slash line: 285/350/350. Agree with the rest on Taylor.

As far as Eddie Harris: 14 - 11, 3.45

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