Yanks Lost! Phils Lost! Why Am I Not happier?

So yesterday was like a wet dream for us Metsies fans. Not only did the Rangers actually hold onto their lead and slaughter the Yanks but The Freak and the Giants beat the Phils too! I mean I should be really happy about this. Logic would dictate this. And you know what I'm thrilled the Yanks and the Phils got their asses handed to them and evil didn't triumph on two occasions yesterday but still I just feel kind of sad. As much as I get my jollies out of seeing Texas and the Giants win I just wish I was watching my beloved NY Metropolitans in the NLCS. I thought I had accepted the fact that the Metsies 2010 season was just an utter nightmare that I had moved on from BUT the playoffs keep reminding me that is not the case. I just keep thinking Dickey could have been starting against Lincecum or Halladay last night if things could have been different. But really it's wrong to think like this because it gets me nowhere. I need to just take pleasure in what I can and really that's seeing the Giants and the Rangers dominating their series at this point. So yep I can do this!

A Prospect, Redemption, and Reality

Imagine with me, if you will, a young hotshot baseball prospect.

He came up with his hometown organization, a bright prospect with a bright future. A hero among the locals. He scorched his way into the baseball consciousness by hitting .359 with 10 home runs and an OPS of 1049 in his first month and a half.

Then, he struggled to finish that year. The next year, he did okay, but worse - in fact, he was below average. The next year, he struggled again. His fourth year in the majors, he seemed to have hit rock bottom - he posted a 653 OPS and an abysmal .294 OBP. His power was gone. He made no strides in his plate discipline. He did nothing to capitalize on his promise.

As Gary Cohen Screamed To The High Heavens, "Jeff Francouer Back In Atlanta STUNS Billy Wagner!"

Game 2: Mets 3 Braves 2

Dickey vs Lowe

So this game was going to have either 2 outcomes. I was going to throw in the towel and accept reality that the Mets season was over or well I was going to get to be an optimistic schmuck for at least one more day. And what do you know I get to stay a delusional Metsies fan! This can all change tomorrow but for now I'm savoring this victory like no other.

So now let's get to a quick recap of this magnificence and then it will be time for some Keith action in the booth! Giddy up!

In the bottom of the 2nd with 1 out R.A. Dickey beaned Gonzalez. Ankiel then singled and Melky Cabrera was up. Melky grounded into what looked like it was going to be a double play but nope it was just a force out at 2nd. Luis Castillo was not to blame on this one! Reyes didn't at all try to get Cabrera out at first, he didn't even attempt a throw and yep that meant the Braves would take advantage of this lapse in Metsies defense. Gonzalez scored on this not-a-double-play and the Braves took a 1-0 lead over the Mets.

But Jose is all about the redemption song business. He loves Bob Marley! In the top of the 3rd Castillo led off with a bunt single. I know Castillo didn't suck tonight! I'm still in shock over this! He must have been reading all of our angry blog posts about him on Fonzie! Dickey then sac bunted Luis on over to 2nd and well it was Jose's time to redeem himself! Reyes rbi doubled, Castillo and his two different sized legs scored and the Metsies and Braves were now tied 1-1.

And this game stayed 1-1 until the bottom of the 6th. Dickey's knuckleball was dancing most of the night but after Gary Cohen commented on how much of a groove R.A. was in at this point, the kibosh was on and yep Dickey gave up a lead off single to Gonzalez. Then the force out was made at 2nd on Ankiel's grounder but Melky had to well be special. He wanted to score all the Braves runs tonight. Sheesh former Yankees are SO annoying. Melky tripled, Ankiel scored and ugh the Braves regained the lead over the Metsies, 2-1.

R.A was done after this inning and his numbers tonight were fantastic yet again. Here are the Dickey-licious stats:
6IP 5H 2R 2ER 4BB 2K 103 total pitches thrown

And Dickey didn't have to worry about picking up a loss tonight because the Mets were all about showing they had OOMPH and major fight in this game. In the top of the 7th Kyle Farnsworth was the new pitcher on the mound. The Braves just got him (and Ankiel) from Kansas City and well he sucked. Yay to the Mets not acquiring Kyle like it was rumored in that rumor mill thingy last week! On just 4 pitches Farnsworth gave up a lead off walk to Frenchy. Yes this did happen, yes on 4 pitches, yes yes Jeff doesn't always swing at everything and anything! Castillo then sac bunted, and Jeff was in scoring position for the pinch hitting THE ANIMAL CARTER. And well Chris was super duper clutch. The Animal singled, Jeff scored and oh this game was tied yet again, 2-2!

Pedro Feliciano got into some trouble in the bottom of the 7th but that former Bravo Manny Acosta knows all about stopping the bleeding! With Jones and McCann on 1st and 2nd and 1 out Manuel made that good old call to the bullpen and he brought in Acosta. Perpetual sucking Pedro was out! Bobby Cox had the "my knees suck" Troy Glaus pinch hit and well Acosta got Glaus to ground into a double play. It was splendid! And well it was kind of painful to watch Glaus attempt to run to 1st but oh well I'll live! Acosta pitched a scoreless 8th too and it was up to the Metsies in the top of the 9th to get their 15th come from behind win of the season!

Billy Wagner came in to pitch in the top of the 9th and well he was the Billy we remember! Frenchy was up and I just felt he was finally going to well not have just 1 hit in his last 23 at bats. He was going to have 2 hits in his last 24 at bats! And yep my woman's intuition was on! Jeff solo homered, his 10th homer of the season and the Mets now had the lead, 3-2. WHOA! The joy that was seen in the Metsies dugout after this homer was amazing. It's been so long since us fans have witnessed happiness in the dugout and it almost brought me to tears. Okay that's a lie but it was a pleasure to see! And for the record when Jeff homered I screamed so loud I'm pretty sure my neighbors might have thought there was an intruder in my house! And possibly fans at Turner Field even heard me! Okay that's another lie, my screaming can't compete with tomahawk chopping noises.

So now in the bottom of the 9th it was time for K-Rod goggles to shut the Braves down. And he did just that! I mean there was no drama at all. It was AMAZIN'! Infante and Heyward both grounded out and well there were 2 outs and it was up to Chipper to do something. And LARRRRRRRRRY sucked! He flew out and the ball game was over! Mets win, Mets win and well they are back to being 6 1/2 games behind not-so-HOTLANTA!

Ok now let's get to the Keith Hernandez business. Hmm what did he say tonight!? Here we go:

Mickey Mantle is his idol!

He was never a fan of Fulton County Stadium. It had a terrible infield.

He said "WIGWAM!" And well I wanted him to say it like 57 more times but nope he didn't.

Keith said it was "smoking" in Hotlanta today! He was sweating non-stop at the mall.

He liked R.A.'s demeanor on the mound.

He showed off some geographical knowledge. "Tennessee is a bordering state of Georgia." From Atlanta he said it takes about an hour and a 1/2 to get to Chattanooga. Do I know if this is true? NOPE. Keith is terrible at math so 1 1/2 hours can really mean 2 days or like a week.

He said Burkhardt was very inquisitive tonight. He also said this inquisitive nature is why Kevin gets paid the big bucks.

Keith said Isaac Benjamin Davis looks so much like the D-Backs Adam LaRoche. This is odd because I have been saying this to my Dad since well the D-Backs swept the Metsies in Arizona. Especially now that Isaac is without the beard. And really why did he shave? Did Frenchy tell him to? If so big mistake. Davis struck out for the 93rd time tonight. I imagine the sans beard thing had something to do with that. Okay I know it didn't but he has to get that beard back immediately! It's a integral part of the team!

So in tomorrow's rubber game it's up to well Big Pelf to pitch a gem or for the Mets to score so many runs that it doesn't matter if the BAD MIKE is at Turner Field. I really have no idea what to expect from Pelf but I'm gonna be an optimistic schmuck and well I believe the Mets can win tomorrow. Let's go METS!

THE TIPPING POINT

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW IS RIGHT THERE IN THE BOX SCORE.

TONIGHT, JOSE REYES WAS 3-FOR-6 WITH A WALK. DAVID WRIGHT WAS 3-FOR-6. ANGEL PAGAN WAS 2-FOR-5 WITH A HOME RUN. CARLOS BELTRAN HOMERED. ALL OUR STARS PERFORMED LIKE STARS.

BUT WE LOST. WHY??

How Can The Mets Possibly Consider Benching Pagan?

A lot of better news outlets than Fonzie Forever have already reported the recent news that Carlos Beltran is beginning a rehab assignment and may soon be back in the Mets lineup, so let's skip to the analysis:

As great as this news is, it is accompanied with a sense of foreboding -- it appears that the Mets may be prepared to play Carlos Beltran in center field at the expense of Angel Pagan, while letting Jeff Francoeur play every day in right field. The Mets blogosphere is probably unanimous in hating this idea.

Dave Cameron at fangraphs recently did a great job pointing out how valuable Pagan has been over the last couple of seasons:

Since the start of the 2008 season, Pagan has received 585 plate appearances, or just about one full season’s worth of playing time. In that time span, he’s posted a .355 wOBA and a +14.4 UZR while playing primarily in center field. That performance adds up to a total value of +4.9 wins, the sixth most of any center fielder in baseball during that time frame.

Angel Pagan has been great again this year, so it would stink if he was benched in favor of Francoeur. The strange thing about all of this, however, is that it appears the Mets know this. Pagan has played every day and is batting second. He recieves high praise from Jerry Manuel and the front office. Jeff Francoeur hits at the bottom half of the lineup and has been the subject of much consternation. So why the talk of making Pagan the odd man out?

I think Pat Andriola over at the Hardball Times got it right when he said the following:

I think it'd be optimal for the Mets to bench Francoeur for good and put Carlos Beltran in right field. Beltran will be coming off serious knee issues and declined defensively last year. The Mets can mitigate his stress back in the outfield by putting him in right, leaving Pagan in center, and of course having Jason Bay in left field. Chris Carter and Jeff Francoeur can sit on the bench, and Gary Matthews Jr. can go home and buy really cool stuff with his tens of millions of dollars.

My gut feeling is that the Mets are simply posturing on this one. If Carlos Beltran does indeed come back from his injury (dubious at best) and plays center field instead of right field (also dubious) then I believe the Mets are going to be forced to push Francoeur to the bench as the short side of a platoon.

How couldn't they? Francoeur is dead last among Mets outfielders in wOBA:

Bay: .357
Pagan: .349
Francoeur: .317

Among the three, Francoeur is also last in hits, OBP, and runs. Hell, he's even last in steals (Bay somehow has 9). The only meaningful stat where he doesn't grade out as last among Mets outfielders, aside from RBI, is ultimate zone rating. There, Bay lags behind the field by a sizeable gap:

Pagan: 10.1 UZR/150
Francoeur: -0.9 UZR/150
Bay: -6.5 UZR/150

Long story short is that, in sum, the only outfielder who should be safe from criticism, beyond reproach, and safe from benching, is Angel Pagan. Here's a look by WAR (wins above replacement)

Pagan: 2.2 wins
Bay: 1.1 wins
Francoeur: 0.6 wins

In the end, the smartest arrangement will probably involve a Pagan and Francoeur platoon in right field, with Angel Pagan taking over in center field on the plentiful off days that Carlos Beltran will recieve. This arrangement is actually perfect -- giving Pagan a start almost every day, letting Beltran rest, and having Francoeur as a great pinch-hit option in late innings against lefties.

We discussed a platoon between Pagan and Francoeur at length in January. Pagan has an 848 OPS against righties this season. Francoeur has an 898 OPS against lefties this season (684 vs. righties).

Let's make this happen. Please. I just complimented Mets management on all the intelligent decisions they've made this year (and was subsequently ridiculed for it) -- so please do something smart and help me out here.

Outside the Box, Part 7: Convert Jeff Francoeur to Pitcher

I don't know if this has ever been discussed, and it is probably ridiculous, but... why not? This snippet from NYBD made me think of it:

Carter is almost certainly better, and actually strikes me as a decent alternative in right field, should Jeff Francoeur continue hitting like he has (.143/.200/.221 in his last 22 games). Great glove or not, that isn’t close to adequate for the position, unless the position is pitcher.

Jeff Francoeur is having an epic struggle at the plate. The odds of him ever developing into a serviceable corner outfield bat seem slim to none. So what are Jeff Francoeur's strengths? And how do we best leverage them?

Ridiculous cannon for a throwing arm.

Good, positive attitude and clubhouse demeanor.

Athletic.

Can hit a little bit.

Would he really be the world's worst candidate for a two-way player type position? Could he throw hard off a mound? Could be throw strikes? I have no idea -- but I'd love to find out.

The Most Important Thing From... Game 12, Mets v. Cardinals, April 18th

Sometimes the Most Important Thing (MIT) is a good thing. Sometimes it is not. Tonight, it is not.

Over their last 29 innings of baseball, the Mets have managed only 13 hits. If you take away the hits collected against position players, they have only 10 hits in their last 27 innings. Truly awful.

The Most Important Thing From... Game 8, Mets v. Rockies, April 14th

It's after midnight here on the East Coast, so this is going to have to be a premature "Most Important Thing" tonight. There are, undoubtedly, a number of things vying for my attention tonight. Francoeur continues to hit the ball well. Jacobs put one off the wall with a broken bat. David Wright jumped all over a ball for his third home run of the young season.

Francoeur and Pagan Platoon

Over at Amazin Avenue, James Kannengeiser looks at the splits to make an argument in favor of a Francoeur and Pagan platoon:

Using some rudimentary calculations, the Pagan/Francoeur platoon projects to produce something like this: .295/.345/.470, with upside based on each players' age and recent performance . . . This would almost certainly give the Mets above average offensive production from the right field position -- something they've lacked since 2006 . . . The biggest fear is that Pagan is relegated to Jeremy Reed duty while Francoeur grits his way to a .730 OPS.

Here at Fonzie Forever, we've been on that bandwagon for months already. Back in October, we pointed out that Angel Pagan was good enough to play every day:

Taken by itself, Angel Pagan's 2009 performance is MORE than enough to justify handing him a starting job in 2010. He hit .306/.350/.487, with 11 triples and 6 home runs in only 343 at bats. He struck out only 56 times and stole 14 bases compared to 7 caught. He is only 27 years old, entering his prime, and he is not yet a free agent. He played excellent defense, and is well-known for being the most athletic Met.
* * *
I doubt many people see Pagan as an option, but I also think that not many people realize just how good he was this season. I think if people knew that by hitting .306 and playing excellent defense he provided almost as much value as Jason Bay did, they would think differently.
* * *
I don't think it's crazy to expect Angel to be able to hit .280/.340/.460 this year at least (which would be a 37 point drop from his 2009 OPS). If he did, he'd be good enough to have the job, no doubt about it.

Then in December, while analyzing the Mets ZiPS projections, we opined that:

A short term solution like Delgado at first base, or perhaps a good platoon situation with Francoeur (who for his career has hit .298 against lefties) would help immensely.

Then later, while discussing cheap, available free agents, we again pointed out that Francoeur was an excellent candidate for a platoon partner:

Did anyone realize that Francoeur hit .344/.356/.521 for an 878 OPS against lefties last year? And has an 827 OPS against them for his career?

A Pagan and Francoeur platoon may already be in the works in real Mets-land. One can hope. In addition to keeping all four of our outfielders sharp, it helps us on one other VERY important real-life issue: Jeff Francoeur's contract. Francoeur made $3.37 million last year, is due a small raise this year, and will soon be owed even larger sums.

By playing him in a platoon, we may be able to either a) argue he is not a full-time ballplayer or b) by protecting him against tough righties, inflate his statistics to the point where he may become a valuable trade commodity. By playing Pagan only when Francoeur needs "rest" he could look way better without being actively platooned. Either way, we should be mindful that Fernando Martinez will be ready soon -- and that we do not need a third outfielder locked into his position for several years.