The Incredible Expanding Ike Davis

Kevin Kernan, who seems to be leading the league in "optimistic spring training articles" (or OSTA's, as we like to call them) published a nice fluff piece on Ike Davis yesterday afternoon. He profiles the youngster, talks about his dad, Ron Davis, a former Yankees reliever, and talks about his rapid ascent through the minor league system. All is well, until this:

But Davis is taking it all in, when you are wearing No. 78 in your first big league camp, you don't expect too much.

"I try to limit my expectations," said Davis, who added 30 pounds of bulk over the offseason. "I want to just be ready. I'm going to go wherever they put me. Wherever I fall, I think I will be prepared. I've seen these guys on TV and now I get to hit BP with them, it's pretty cool. You get to learn a lot."

THIRTY POUNDS? What, did he grow an extra leg?

It is anybody's guess as to whether the added "bulk" is muscle or otherwise, or whether it will help or hinder him in the game of baseball - but wow. I love how it's dropped in there so casually.


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*Also, happy belated birthday to Fonzie Forever writer Roger Cormier, the man responsible for bringing you such classics as "I'm In Love With That Song" and "The Curse of Kevin Burkhardt." Both are great reads.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 9: Left-Handed Starters

Left-handed starting pitchers tend to be more coveted than their right-handed counterparts, and generally can succeed in the majors with less stuff. As a whole they do not throw quite as hard or have breaking pitches quite as nasty, but that does not mean they are lesser prospects. As always this year features many players with lights-out stuff as well. At the top of the list you will find some close to finished products, but there are also a bunch of very high ceiling players emerging in the low minors.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders
Pt. 7: Center Fielders
Pt. 8: Relievers


1. Brian Matusz - Orioles (7)

Matusz was about as close to major-league ready as you will find in a draft pick when he was taken 4th overall in 2008. He dominated college hitters with four pitches that all had potential to be effective major-league offerings and commanded them all. He needed less than a full season in the minors before making his big league debut and was solid over eight starts to close out the season for Baltimore. He should break camp with the team this year and be a fixture in their rotation for the season.

Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter, Part 2

A few months back, Jimmy wrote a great article on the cutter and how it is a highly-effective and under-utilized pitch:

In the last two years among qualified starters, 17 pitchers can be said to use a cutter often enough that it can be considered a legitimate part of their repertoire . . . These are the only starting pitchers who throw cutters routinely in baseball right now and the striking thing is that all of their cutters are effective.
* * *
Out of the 17 pitchers listed, for nine of them, the cutter is their most effective pitch . . . All of this data seems to suggest that the cutter, in general, is an incredibly useful pitch to learn and use. It seems that more pitchers are learning it every year and it has helped their careers immensely.

The article got picked up by a couple other outlets, and was pretty widely read.

Today, a Texas Rangers blog highlighted the cutter and drew many of the same conclusions that Jimmy did:

[T]he cutter is becoming even more popular under the Maddux regime, with McCarthy joining the ranks of Feldman, Tommy Hunter and Colby Lewis v. 2.0 as cutter-brandishing Rangers.

This latter point, in particular, fascinates me to no end. It seems ineluctably clear that Texas values pitchers capable of throwing the cutter (as evidenced by this latest overhaul and the Lewis signing), but why? Well, beyond the lefty-neutralizing powers of the cutter, it turns out that it also wields power-neutralizing capabilities (per Sky Kalkman's research), and it can be thrown for strikes at a similar rate to conventional fastballs while still producing a greater rate of swinging strikes. Yet, cutters are still remarkably scarce in the modern game; Baseball Info Solutions-supplied pitch data indicates that fewer than one out of every 20 major league pitches thrown in 2009 was classified as a cutter.

Maybe Mike Maddux reads Fonzie Forever! Or, far more likely, Jimmy did a great job identifying a burgeoning trend. It will be interesting to see, as the author of the blog later points out, if the cutter is a "market inefficiency" and whether it will last.

Beer Us

According to MetsBlog:

Yesterday, the Mets officially announced that McFadden’s will open a 13,000–square foot bar and restaurant at Citi Field, which will include a 200-foot island bar, outdoor patios and batting cages.

The website for the bar, Mcfaddenscitifield.com, doesn't provide much information. Their internet jukebox however seems to have fifty or so songs, sixty-five percent of which are from the eighties, for what it's worth. (Yes, "Your Love" is one of the songs.)

This seems about a year too late, no?

Here are some ideas I have for specials McFadden's can run for the upcoming season:

If Jeff Francoeur walks, free beer for the remainder of the game.

If Luis Castillo catches a routine pop-up and you do not make a snide remark, half-off on your next drink.

If Mike Pelfrey balks, free ski-ball for the next inning. (What do you mean they probably won't have a ski-ball machine?!)

If Keith Hernandez says something on the air that leads us to believe he had been at McFadden's earlier, Budweisers must be lined up from one end of the bar to the other immediately. With The Moody Blues on the jukebox.

If a Met throws a no-hitter...just kidding, that will never happen.

If Oliver Perez is the starting pitcher, free shots for everyone in the ballpark. For the entire game.

If a Met is injured, free drinks for the next 10 minutes. If you're wearing a cast on the body part the Met just hurt, 20 minutes.

The fourth inning is the beer inning.

I realize that most of these promotions would immediately run McFadden's out of business, but I never said I was a business person. And clearly, I never will be.

The "Decline" of Johan Santana

We here at Fonzie Forever are beginning to gear up for yet another epic battle in our fantasy baseball league, and in our search came across an article about Johan Santana. The article, by Tristan Cockroft at ESPN, was entitled "Johan Santana's Decline Has Begun."

I wouldn't usually call a fantasy baseball article to everyone's attention, but Cockroft's conclusions in the article are obviously founded in reality - he believes that Santana's decline in real life will affect his fantasy value. Cockcroft, who usually does great work, concludes:

It's at this point I get on my soapbox: Johan Santana's downside is a finish outside the top 100 players of 2010 and easily out of the top 10 starting pitchers. Not only that, but I'd even argue that it's almost twice as probable an outcome as a season that puts his name into serious Cy Young discussion.

That's not based entirely upon concerns with his ongoing rehabilitation from surgery, though that's absolutely a factor. It's more than that: Santana's declining strikeout rate, diminished velocity and the New York Mets' weakened offense are all warning signs that a collapse might be coming.

I agree with much of his premise - it is of course possible that ANY player's downside is a finish outside the Top 100 fantasy players - but his main idea, that Santana is in linear decline, is incorrect.

It is a common mistake by people to look at a series of values and draw a conclusion from them. It pleases people to draw conclusions, even faulty ones, from information we have at hand. If you are a given a series of numbers "2-4-6-8..." you are going to guess the next number is 10. Similarly, if you are given "2-4-8-16..." you will probably end up with 32.

For any kind of rational, mathematical system, this makes sense. However in baseball, it is faulty to look at a set of numbers trending in one direction in a linear fashion and simply to conclude that the trend will continue in that direction. Here is an example from Cockcroft:

Santana's swing-and-miss percentage -- usually a good indicator of a pitcher's strikeout potential -- has been in precipitous decline since joining the Mets, especially last season. Here are his numbers and rankings among qualified major league pitchers in the category since 2004:

2004: 66.3 percent contact rate on swings (1st)
2005: 74.2 percent (2nd)
2006: 74.8 percent (1st)
2007: 73.2 percent (2nd)
2008: 77.0 percent (10th)
2009: 78.4 percent (21st)

In a vacuum, you could easily say that his contact rate on swings will increase yet again this season. However with real life, and baseball is a great example, there are an infinite number of variables which go into numbers such as "contact rate." Could Santana have been pitching to contact? Could the NL East be loaded disproportionately with contact hitters? Could Citi Field have an excellent batter's eye?

The point is, you cannot look at a simple numerical series and assume that it will continue. Doing this is how people get KILLED in the stock market. Sets of numbers -- like a contact rate, or a stock value -- are simply recordings of things that have happened in history. They carry little or no predictive value for the future.

If Santana's fastball was 90.5 MPH on average last season, what do we know about the future? Nothing. All we know is that it was 90.5 last year. Even if his fastball declined 1 MPH per season for three seasons in a row, the most reliable information that we have tells us that his fastball was 90.5 MPH last year. And since we are dealing with a human being - a flesh and bone creature which isn't beholden to any mathematical trend - my money is on his fastball being 90.5 MPH again.

Indeed, real life evidence indicates that Santana has a chance to be better this year than last. Santana himself has claimed that he feels fantastic this year, and that at times last season he couldn't even bend his elbow. He is healthier now than before - and smart money would be on him succeeding greatly this year.

As far as fantasy goes, I actually agree with Cockcroft that there are enough reasons in fantasy to not draft Santana within the first 50 picks. But rumors of Santana's decline have been greatly exaggerated[1].

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[1] As for his claim that he's the best pitcher in the NL East... well... I like Santana and all, but I hear there is a new guy in Philly that might have something to say about that, not to mention a guy in Miami. It'll be very interesting to see how that shakes out.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 8: Relievers

Relief Pitchers are by far the hardest group of prospects to rank. First of all, many of the relievers in the majors today are failed starting pitchers and they may have only made a handful of appearances out of the pen in the minors. But even more significant, is just how volatile the position is. So many relievers blow out their arms or come out of nowhere to post excellent numbers. Because of that, take this list with a grain of salt. I am sure that a lot of players listed here will never see the majors, and it is equally possible that some players I did not list are going to have very good careers. Several players that are currently starters who appear destined to move to the pen for one reason or another are here as well.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders
Pt. 7: Center Fielders


1. Drew Storen - Nationals (71)

Storen is the other player Washington drafted in 2009's first round. He was the first pure reliever selected after anchoring Stanford's pen. Storen is a little atypical for an upper tier closer prospect. He does not have huge velocity and generally sits in the low-90s. What makes him the top reliever prospect is his pair of breaking balls, both of which are plus pitches. Most relievers only use one secondary pitch, but Storen throws a big breaking curve and a power slider, both of which generate lots of strikeouts.

Ryota Igarashi - Swallows Man?!

Now, before you all go and begin with your juvenile jokes... well, okay, I'll wait a second and let you make them.

Finished? Okay.

I first heard about Ryota Igarishi's alter-ego of Swallows Man on Monday when reading a excellent piece on him by Adam Rubin of the Daily News. If you haven't, I would recommend you click through to read it. Anyway, this is the part that really caught my attention:

During his 11-year career with the Yakult Swallows, Igarashi would wear a WWE-style mask and take on the persona of "Swallows Man." A photo of him in character is on his Japanese-language Web site (http://ryo-ta.way-nifty.com/swallowsman/).

"When it was cold, I would practice with the mask on," he says through the interpreter.

Seriously?! Where do we find these guys?! From Tsuyoshi Shinjo, underwear model, to Mr. Koo, we seem to bring Japanse players over to the states based solely on personality (not a strategy that I am against).

In any event, the website is amazing. And that's just judging from the pictures. Take a look.

Luckily, we were able to ask our resident Japanese-speaker and Fonzie contributor, Brian Jackson, to translate the most recent diary entry. Here is what he got back to us with:

The guy that writes it is Swallows Man. It's actually a farewell letter.

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November 16, 2009

Yesterday, Ryota declared free agency and his intent to take on the challenge of the Major Leagues.

As Swallows Man, I love the Swallows so I am a little sad, but I cheer Ryota for following his dreams!!

And so...

I, Swallows Man, inspired by Ryota's ambition, have decided to go to the Major Leagues of Pro Wrestling: Mexico.

To everyone who has supported me to date, thank you very much.

I was so happy that, as fellow supporters of Ryota, that you supported Swallows Man as well.

With a grateful heart, I would like to make a gift to my beloved fans: the Swallows Man mask.

The webmaster will provide the details.

Even though I will be in Mexico, my support for the Swallows and Ryota will not change!!!!

Thank you very much <3

Signed,

Swallows Man, who loves the Swallows
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The rest is instructions from the webmaster on how to enter the contest to win the Swallows Man mask.

I mean, how can you not just be compeletely in love with this guy already? That is hysterical. Although he mentions in the Rubin article that he does not plan on bringing his alter ego to the states ("Igarashi then deadpans in his limited English: "New York Mets Man. New face."), it appears that, should the season take a turn for the worst, we'll at least have someone interesting to keep tabs on.

2010 Top Prospects pt. 7: Center Fielders

The major leagues are already teeming with talented, young center fielders, but that does not mean the minors have run dry. Two of the top prospects in all of baseball roam center and while they do stand out from the crowd, center field also boasts some of the highest upside prospects in the low minors. Here is where you will generally find the best all-around athletes in baseball. Center requires the speed of a middle infielder, but also more impact with the bat and at least an average arm. The top center field prospect list is also very diverse in terms of skills. There are several players with big time home run potential, slap hitters and everything in between.

Pt. 1: Catchers
Pt. 2: First Baseman
Pt. 3: Second Baseman
Pt. 4: Shortstops
Pt. 5: Third Baseman
Pt. 6: Corner Outfielders



1. Desmond Jennings - Rays (5)

The Rays do not spend a lot of money but have really done a good job lately of figuring out the players who are worth an investment. Jennings was an over-slot 10th round pick in 2006 and immediately everybody could see his potential. Often described as a right-handed Carl Crawford who also takes his fair share of walks, the Rays did not get a real sense of how special he was until 2009. Jennings missed time in 2007 and then almost all of 2008 with knee, back and shoulder injuries, two of which required surgery. Last year he finally managed to stay on the field and delivered a big year.

The Baseball Injury Tool

Not sure if this website is already common knowledge or not, but I just discovered a great resource called the Baseball Injury Tool.

Plug in the first and last name of any active player, and you will be delivered a list of all of their injuries - regardless of whether or not they were in the regular season, and whether or not it landed them on the Disabled List. It'll give you the number of days injured, the body part, and the cause. It's truly amazing.

For instance, if you were to plug in David Wright, you would immediately know the following:

-He has only been on the disabled list once. He was on it for 16 days.
-He has been considered day-to-day nine times, but has only missed four games because of it.
-In his career, he has suffered concussions, a general stomach illness, a foot laceration (in spring training last year), groin soreness, etc.

Not familiar with the travails of Kelvim Escobar? Well Kelvim has been on the 15-Day DL four times, and the 60-Day DL four times. He has has surgery twice, on July 29th, 2008 and on June 29th, 2005. He has been considered injured because of his elbow or shoulder 12 times, but has never injured his back, head, neck, or upper leg.

What an amazing resource, particularly for us Mets fans, whose game recaps sometimes read like police blotters. Bookmark it, people.

Follow Us On Twitter!

Not many people I think are aware of this (yes, I blame it almost entirely on blogger;s layout as well as my lack of internet-savvy) but Fonzie Forever can be found on twitter.

Follow us at @fonzieforever! Roger is our twitter guy here at FF, and he updates with links to all of our new articles. If you follow us, you will also get gems like this:

-- When Johan was asked to name best guitar player in Central America, he replied, "Santana." 9:26 AM Feb 18th from TweetDeck

-- At this rate, Kelvim Escobar will be downgraded to "deceased" by tomorrow. 8:49 AM Feb 18th from TweetDeck

-- I can sure go for 8 mil tacos right about now...RT @SI_JonHeyman: lincecum gets 8 mil in 2010, 13mil in 2011 plus 2 mil signing bonus