Kelvim Escobar's Injury Woes Continue

Edited March 28, 2010

Once it was news that Escobar was injured and wouldn't be pitching, I basically stopped reporting on this story. He was hurt, the Mets have such an awful reputation when it comes to handling things, and we'll just wait and see when he gets back. One thing that bears pointing out, however, is how accurate Craig Calcaterra's reporting on this issue was in comparison to the news coming out of Mets camp.

On February 18th, Calcaterra pointed out that Kelvim Escobar "may be seriously hurt" and that he "isn't even to grip a baseball" right now. Mets officials downplayed this, with Mets' beat reporter Adam Rubin relaying a story from Johan Santana saying that Escobar was fine. Later that night, WFAN reported that Mets officials have declared Escobar "on schedule" with what they expected of him at this poing in the spring.

Even on that Friday, February 19th, Escobar insisted that he would "be ready for opening day" because his issue was a weakness issue and that he'd be fine.

Well, fast-forward to the present and Kelvim Escobar has not thrown a baseball since that day.

The Baseball Injury Tool

Not sure if this website is already common knowledge or not, but I just discovered a great resource called the Baseball Injury Tool.

Plug in the first and last name of any active player, and you will be delivered a list of all of their injuries - regardless of whether or not they were in the regular season, and whether or not it landed them on the Disabled List. It'll give you the number of days injured, the body part, and the cause. It's truly amazing.

For instance, if you were to plug in David Wright, you would immediately know the following:

-He has only been on the disabled list once. He was on it for 16 days.
-He has been considered day-to-day nine times, but has only missed four games because of it.
-In his career, he has suffered concussions, a general stomach illness, a foot laceration (in spring training last year), groin soreness, etc.

Not familiar with the travails of Kelvim Escobar? Well Kelvim has been on the 15-Day DL four times, and the 60-Day DL four times. He has has surgery twice, on July 29th, 2008 and on June 29th, 2005. He has been considered injured because of his elbow or shoulder 12 times, but has never injured his back, head, neck, or upper leg.

What an amazing resource, particularly for us Mets fans, whose game recaps sometimes read like police blotters. Bookmark it, people.

Who Is This Guy?: Kelvim Escobar

Who Is He?

Kelvim Escobar is a 33 year old (will turn 34 in April) right handed pitcher who was born in Venezuela.

Where Did He Come From?

Escobar came up through the Blue Jays farm system, striking out a lot of batters and always being a little young and a little wild for his level. He made his major league debut at the age of 21 and was fairly dominant out of the bullpen, saving 14 games that season.

For the next few years he bounced between the bullpen and starting rotation. From what I can tell, the Blue Jays knew that he could do either and moved him back and forth depending on their personnel. From 1998-2003 he made between zero and 30 starts each year. In 2002 he was the full time closer, notching 38 saves. In 1999 and 2003 he almost exclusively was a starter.

In 2004 he signed with Anaheim, who used him as a starting pitcher. That year he made 33 starts and pitched 208 innings, posting a 3.93 ERA, good for 10th in the league. In fact, he placed in the top ten in ERA two more times as well, placing 6th in 2006 (3.61) and 8th in 2007 (3.40).

2007 was his finest full season. He made 30 starts that year over 195 innings, going 18-7 with a 1.27 WHIP. As always, he struck out a lot of batters - 160 over 195 innings.

This is the Mets - So What's the Catch?

Nationals Signed Capps

In a transaction that completely flew under my radar during the holiday season:

The Washington Nationals signed right-handed pitcher Matt Capps on Wednesday to a one-year deal worth $3.5 million. TSN

That's it?! ONE year and $3.5 million? Speculation was that Capps was capable of receiving a multi-year deal. From Metsblog.com:

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com feels Capps will choose to close for the Nationals, who will give him a multi-year deal, despite the Cubs offering more money per season.

I was against giving Capps a multi-year deal as well. But for him to have signed with the Nationals for only $3.5 million dollars and one year is a big-time mistake for the Mets. In early December, we wrote here about Capps:

He is a perfect candidate for the Mets, a team with bullpen problems and a big wallet. He was coming off injury last year, and there are a lot of reasons to believe that he was just unlucky. His fastball last year was the best it has ever been... he got swings on 29.7% of his pitches out of the zone last year... [and] he may have been a little unlucky with home runs - 13.5% of fly balls against him went for home runs, an unusually high rate.

The Mets should scoop this guy up quick, even if he is a due a slight raise. He'll want a one year deal to reestablish his value, and he'll provide insurance for K-Rod.

Well, he got his one year deal. And according to Cot's Contracts, he is only able to earn an additional $0.425 million in incentives at most.

For those who want to criticize Minaya for "fighting the last war" or not being proactive, this is a great example. Although we have a "proven closer" in Francisco Rodriguez, as we have pointed out here before, K-Rod's peripherals have been declining steadily in recent years.

I think this link tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about K-Rod... Simply put, there is no reason to believe that he is more likely to be 2006 K-Rod next year than a repeat of 2009 K-Rod. And 2009 K-Rod walked 5 batters per nine innings, had an ERA of 3.71, and had a WHIP of 1.31.

There is no insurance beyond K-Rod, a vulnerability which may become extremely obvious should he continue his decline. That Capps was available on a contract which was short in length and reasonable in dollar amount, and that the Mets were not more heavily involved, is not a good sign.


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postscript: And please don't tell me that I should be excited about Kelvim Escobar or Ryota Igarashi. Both I felt were good risks for the Mets to take, but both are clearly a notch below Capps.

Escobar in particular has a chance to be good, but for his career has a 4.44 ERA as a reliever with a 1.42 WHIP. Granted, those appearances are interspersed through his career, and his numbers are better as a starter -- but still, that's not the dominant profile that I think people associate with his name. He'll also be coming back from injury -- all of these, reasons why he signed for so little. He is not adequate insurance for K-Rod either.